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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • PTIAX falling like a rock.
    @Crash FWIW. These are just a few random thoughts....
    It doesn't surprise me that many bond funds took a hit this week. Maybe the bond market is in an "early stage" and rather dysfunctional way saying the bottom is approaching on interest rates (zero percent is a pretty low rate!). Doesn't the NAV for most multisector bond funds tend to decrease as rates start to bump off a rate bottom? (I suspect the current bump was partly related to technical issues and is just a bump for the time being.)
    I am not convinced the world as we know it is coming to an end. Its my sense the Fed will move heaven and earth to keep credit flowing and prevent a total meltdown in the bond markets...zero percent discount rate, quantitative easing, and new tricks yet to be unveiled. Here is a look at the state of the bond market. It can profitably be read just for the generalist highlights.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4332039-when-black-swans-collide
    A recession is likely in the offing. So, I suspect the fiscal floodgates will open to prop up the economy over the next year or so.
    https://washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/14/recession-economy-coronavirus-jobs/
    My thought is the markets and the economy will move past this. The PTIAX dividends will keep arriving and management is skilled enough to make lemon aide out of the lemons. (I own some too.)
    Maybe I acted too early, but on Friday I bought some more ZEOIX (down 2.94% year to date) and initiated a postion in RCTIX (down 0.56% year to date).
  • Many investors freeze up when it comes to picking a mutual fund
    Many investors freeze up when it comes to picking a mutual fund
    https://www.nj.com/times/2020/03/many-investors-freeze-up-when-it-comes-to-picking-a-mutual-fund-szymanski.html
    Thx to mfo, things maybe little easier to digest/ ,pick at this forum
  • AAA longer duration bonds a bit better, U.S.T. issues, March 20, Friday PM close, watching.....
    I've already stepped through this previous; but a re-do for those who didn't read/see.
    A quick look at S&P's bond rating guide:
    "AAA" and "AA" (high credit quality) and "A" and "BBB" (medium credit quality) are considered investment grade. Credit ratings for bonds below these designations ("BB," "B," "CCC," etc.) are considered low credit quality, and are commonly referred to as "junk bonds."
    For those wondering why no support for their portfolio via the bond route, well; this past week didn't really matter. AAA U.S. gov't. issues had no support for whatever reasons remain in something still "broke to hell" with credit freeze or whatever is amiss. For bond portfolios that have a much lower rating for bond holdings, the damage was more critical. I'm sure active managed funds attempted to "fix" their holdings with better quality bonds, but this didn't help either. I expect more action from the Treasury and/or the Fed. next week to attempt to slow down the falling knife.
    I now see, my link has already been posted while this write was delayed in draft mode. None the less, this will stay here.
    Corporate debt at $75 trillion.
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    As of market close March 13th, according to the metrics of Old_Skeet's stock market barometer, the S&P 500 Index remains extremely oversold with a reading of 175. This is on the high side of the barometer's scale. A higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the Index over a lower reading. For the past two weeks, the short volume has averaged 64% of the total volume for SPY. The VIX (which is a measure of volatility) has moved from 36 to 53 which reflects volatility has been high. The the stock Index's valuation lost ground during the week moving from a reading of 2972 to 2711 for a -8.8% loss and off it's 52 week high by 19.9%. From a yield perspective, I'm finding that the US10YrT is now being listed at 0.98% while at the beginning of the year it was listed at 1.92%. With the recent stock market swoon the S&P 500 Index is currently listed with a dividend yield of 2.15% while at the beginning of the year it was listed at 1.82%. As you can see there is now a good yield advantage for the stock Index over the Ten Year Treasury. With this, I'm favoring equity income over fixed income due to this yield spread. I also feel that the stock market is somewhat oversold and bonds are somewhat overbought.
    For the week, I was a buyer of equity income at the 19% and 27% decline marks with also having bought equities earlier during this swoon at the 8% and 13% decline marks. I most likely will continue to buy equities as long as they remain in bear market territory and there is a fit for them within my asset allocation. Otherwise, I will simply sit tight and enjoy the upward equity ride when it comes.
    It is interesting how my asset allocation has moved with the changes that have taken place within the capital markets. Both my cash and income percentages have risen (acting as stabilizers), during this stock market swoon, while my equity allocation percentage has fallen due to the decline in equity values. With this, Old_Skeet has been busy buying equities during the stock market swoon thus keeping my equity allocation on bubble. This equity buying caused a cash draw. As I write, I am 18% cash, 42% income and 40% equity.
    From my perspective the advantage of my buying during the swoon means I should get back to even quicker when the upswing comes. Plus, I increased my portfolio's income generation as the equity income funds that I bought have a yield of about 3% to 4% while the cash used to make these purchases was yielding about 1%.
    Thanks for stopping by and reading.
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • MFO Ratings Updated - February 2020
    All ratings have been updated on MFO Premium, including MultiSearch, Great Owls, Fund Alarm (Three Alarm and Honor Roll), Averages, Dashboard of Profiled Funds, and Fund Family Scorecard. The site now includes several analysis tools, including Correlation, Rolling Averages, Trend, Ferguson Metrics, Calendar Year and Period Performance.
    You are very welcome.
    Can read a bit more about the month here.
  • Here's what could really sink the global economy: $19 trillion in risky corporate debt
    http://www.wicz.com/story/41895546/heres-what-could-really-sink-the-global-economy-19-trillion-in-risky-corporate-debt
    /Here's what could really sink the global economy: $19 trillion in risky corporate debt
    Posted: Mar 14, 2020 2:32 AM CDT
    By Julia Horowitz, CNN Business
    Companies have spent the years since the global financial crisis binging on debt. Now, as the coronavirus pandemic threatens to push the world into recession, the bill could come due — exacerbating damage to the economy and feeding a meltdown in financial markets./
    We may have to monitor the junk bonds closely, value declined significantly few wks. Difficult tell if they recover in short terms especially oil energy sectors
  • VFIAX vs SWPPX and VTSAX vs SWTSX
    I'd give the generic answer that Vanguard is better at running index funds - often holding less cash, trading with an eye to tax implications, etc. But there's an additional reason that Vanguard index funds are more tax efficient. They usually have an ETF share class.
    This means that should the fund generate any cap gains, like any ETF fund it is able to purge those gains. You can see the difference by comparing the cap gains distributions of VFIAX and SWPPX.
    Take a look at Schwab's web page for SWPPX:
    https://www.schwab.wallst.com/schwab/Prospect/research/mutualfunds/summary.asp?symbol=SWPPX
    Under Fund Performance, click on the Dividends & Distributions link.
    You'll see green (cap gains divs) for 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019.
    Now look at Schwab's web page for VFIAX.
    https://www.schwab.wallst.com/schwab/Prospect/research/mutualfunds/summary.asp?symbol=VFIAX
    No green - no cap gains dividends.
  • Catalyst MLP & Infrastructure Fund authorizes reverse split
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1355064/000158064220001192/catalyst497.htm
    497 1 catalyst497.htm 497
    Catalyst MLP & Infrastructure Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    CLASS A: MLXAX CLASS C: MLXCX CLASS I: MLXIX
    March 13, 2020
    The information in this Supplement provides new information beyond that contained in the currently effective Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) for the Fund, dated November 1, 2019, as supplemented January 24, 2020. It should be retained and read in conjunction with that Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and SAI.
    ______________________________________________________________________________
    REVERSE SHARE SPLIT
    On March 25, 2020, the Fund will implement a 5:1 reverse share split (“Reverse-Split”) of the issued and outstanding Class A, Class C and Class I shares of the Fund. As a result, although the value of the shares you own will not change, the number of shares you own will decrease. For example, if you currently own 5 shares of the Fund, after the completion of the Reverse-Split, you will own 1 share of the Fund. Shareholders of record at the close of business on March 25, 2020, will participate in the Reverse-Split, and the adjusted net asset value of your shares will be calculated as of that date. The Fund will complete the Reverse-Split after the close of the securities markets on March 25, 2020.
    Shares of the Fund will be offered, sold, and redeemed on a Reverse-Split-adjusted basis beginning March 25, 2020. The total dollar value of your investment in the Fund will not change. The Reverse-Split is not anticipated to be a taxable event, nor will it have an impact on the Fund’s holdings or its performance. Because the Fund pays distributions on a per share basis and the number of shares of each Class will be reduced, the dollar amount of the distributions will not change as a result of the Reverse-Split, but dividends or other distributions will be adjusted in the same proportion...
  • AAA longer duration bonds a bit better, U.S.T. issues, March 20, Friday PM close, watching.....
    Thank you @Old_Joe for the WSJ overview
    The below link is from a report about noon on Friday. Most Treasury issues prices remain negative at 3pm, and in particular the 30 year stuff which is -2 to -3%. Yields moving UP. So, I still don't understand what is happening. Sure as hell, something is broken somewhere in the financial system.
    The fully and totally beaten up corp. bond market is shining so far today, which are at about a +5%. Trading like an equity and may crash and burn before the end of the market day.
    Treasury Buying issues starting with 30 year bond
  • "a virtual fountain of cash"
    The Leuthold Group's "chart of the week" showed the gap between the S&P 500 yield and the 10-year Treasury yield. The S&P has outyielded 10-year Treasuries five times: approximately 1957, 2009, 2012, 2016, 2020.
    Chart 1 documents the spread between the S&P 500 dividend yield and the 10-year Treasury yield since the S&P was launched in 1957. As of March 12th, the S&P 500’s yield exceeded the 10-year Treasury by a record 1.64%; a virtual fountain of cash in an era starved of current income.
    And yes, I think they were smirking when they typed the "virtual fountain" description.
    David
  • Stocks Are Plunging -- Here's What You Need to Know
    https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/11/stocks-are-plunging-heres-what-you-need-to-know.aspx
    /Stocks Are Plunging -- Here's What You Need to Know
    We have an update on real estate and some promising REITs to put on your watchlist.
    Matthew Frankel, CFP
    The stock market is plunging, with the S&P 500 down by more than 18% from its all-time highs reached earlier this year. While this can certainly seem scary, Industry Focus: Financials host Jason Moser and Fool.com contributor Matt Frankel, CFP are here to help make sense of things./
    Maybe selective look at your portfolio and consider starting positions or add to stocks etf mf that you really liked or have on watch list
  • Best Tax-Free Municipal Bond Funds
    https://money.usnews.com/investing/bonds/slideshows/best-tax-free-municipal-bond-funds
    /7 Best Tax-Free Municipal Bond Funds
    Municipal bonds are loved because they let investors keep more cash.
    U.S. News & World Report
    Line your pockets with municipal bonds.
    Municipal bonds, issued by government entities such as states and counties, enjoy a special place in the hearts of income investors for one simple reason – they let investors keep more cash. Municipal bonds are typically exempt from federal taxation, and if issued within your state, the interest will also be state tax exempt. An investor in the 24% federal tax bracket would need a nearly 4% yield in a normally taxed bond to get the same take-home yield as a 3% municipal bond. The best provide steady income and balance out a risky stock portfolio. Mark Marinella, fund manager at Capital Group, prefers “actively managed, long-term strategies.” As volatility roils the stock market, here are seven of the best municipal bond funds for tax-exempt income.
    Best tax-free municipal bond funds:
    SPDR Nuveen Bloomberg Barclays Short Term Municipal Bond ETF (SHM)
    Tax-Exempt Bond Fund of America (AFTEX)
    Columbia Multi-Sector Municipal Income ETF (MUST)
    Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust (PMO)
    iShares Ibonds Dec 2022 Term Muni Bond ETF (IBMK)
    Nuveen High Yield Municipal Bond Fund A (NHMAX)
    Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (VTEB)/
    Will these vehicles also bankrupt/dry up due to limited funds
  • Which great mutual fund that's closed, will be opening because of money outflows?
    Copy of GP email that I received yesterday:
    March 11, 2020
    Dear Fellow Shareholders,
    In light of the COVID-19 outbreak and resultant market turbulence, we are reaching out to share our current plan of action. While we cannot predict the outcome of the current volatility, we do know that market corrections have historically rewarded long-term investors who are able to maintain a steady hand. We recognize the current pain being experienced by market participants, but we strongly believe that our thoughtful, active approach in the face of volatility is what sets us apart. Our research team is using this time to increase communication with our companies, conduct other forms of due diligence and modeling of our companies, comb through our watch lists, and do additional screenings of our investment universe. We are using this environment as an opportunity to meaningfully upgrade the quality of Grandeur Peak portfolios.
    We have been impressed with the confidence that our fellow shareholders have had in us, as demonstrated by very limited redemptions. We share your confidence and have recently invested more of the firm’s balance sheet into the funds. As you may have seen in a press release earlier this week, due to the sell-off, we announced the upcoming launch of the US Stalwarts Fund on March 19. A few of our funds will be moving from hard to soft close, allowing investors the opportunity to buy in this period of market weakness (clients in those specific funds will receive separate communication detailing the changes). Please check www.grandeurpeakglobal.com for the most current fund status.
    Finally, we are taking the health of our team and business very seriously. As a firm, we have suspended all business travel and are converting scheduled meetings with companies and clients to calls or video conferences. We have asked that any employee who has traveled to a Level 2, 3, or 4 country in the last 14 days to self-quarantine. We are also insisting that any employee who has a fever, flu or cold symptoms, or if any family member has symptoms, that the employee stay at home for the duration of the illness and 24 hours after.
    Every one of our employees is set up to work remotely, and we are very used to doing so. We have a thorough business continuity plan that is continuously evaluated and regularly tested. As a lengthier test, all Grandeur Peak employees will be working from home on March 16 and 17. These days, and those leading up to them, are an opportunity for our team to gain 100% confidence in our ability to work off-site for an extended period of time if necessary.
    Thank you for being an investor in the Grandeur Peak Funds. If you have any questions, do not hesitate to reach out to our team.
    Best Regards,
    Mark Siddoway, CFA, CAIA, MBA
    Todd Matheny, CAIA
    Amy Johnson, MBA, CFP®
  • AAA longer duration bonds a bit better, U.S.T. issues, March 20, Friday PM close, watching.....
    @catch22- @davidmoran just posted a link to a current NYT article. Seems that you're not the only one wondering what's happening. Here's an excerpt:
    Wednesday was an unsettling day on global financial markets, and not just because the stock market fell sharply enough to bring a decade-plus bull market to an end.
    Underneath the headline numbers were a series of movements that don’t really make sense when lined up against one another. They amount to signs — not definitive, but worrying — that something is breaking down in the workings of the financial system, even if it’s not totally clear what that is just yet.
    Bond prices and stock prices were moving together, not in opposite directions as they usually do. On a day when major economic disruptions resulting from the coronavirus pandemic appeared to become likelier — which might be expected to make typical market safe havens more popular — many of them fell instead. That included bonds of all sorts and gold.
    And there were reports from trading desks that many assets that are normally liquid — easy to buy and sell — were freezing up, with securities not trading widely. This was true of the bonds issued by municipalities and major corporations but, more curiously, also of Treasury bonds, normally the bedrock of the global financial system.
    People, it is fair to say, are worried about bond market liquidity.
  • Chart advisor -bear market
    Everything red today, no where to run even tgd funds
    /Bear market
    Logo
    Chart Advisor | Focus on the Price
    By Gordon Scott, CMT
    Wednesday, March 11, 2020
    1. Volatility pricing at foreboding levels
    2. Some target funds look ugly right now
    3. A remote portfolio
    Market Moves
    Stocks fell to their lowest close of the year so far and fell by a larger amount than any other day this year (besides Monday). Today's roughly five percent drop has only been bested a handful of times in the last decade on any of the major market indexes. State Street's S&P 500 index ETF (SPY), and Invesco's Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) have both hit this mark no more than five times. Perhaps that's why stocks staged a sucker's rally yesterday, since each previous time it did so was near a short-term swing low. However, this time it might be different.
    That's because almost none of the previous occurrences coincided with the kind of pricing shown today in the options of the CBOE's Volatility Index (VIX). The chart below gives a visual representation of the pricing of options on the VIX. Based on the pricing, these ranges represent just over a one-standard-deviation range of probability for each given expiry. What stands out is that the pricing of all of these ranges puts them above 30 for the next six months. Option market makers are basically saying they think that the market is going to remain crazy and generally trend lower for the foreseeable future. The fact that the Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJX) slipped into bear market territory only confirmed what they fear.
    There is one other possibility, and that is that these prices are simply overdone, the market correction is over, and all will soon return to normal. Seems like a slim chance. More specifically a fifteen percent chance of avoiding a bear market. At least that's the way options were priced today at the close.
    Image
    Some Target Funds Look Ugly Right Now
    If you hate the idea of having to watch charts and look at stocks, you're probably not reading this right now. That simply says you aren't like most people. Most people would rather set their retirement choices up once and walk away and forget them. That's why target funds were invented. You pick a fund that matches your planned-for retirement year (or thereabouts) and simply put all your eggs in that basket. The fund will diversify for you and change that diversification over time.
    The chart below shows how a comparison of two such funds (from Vanguard) and compares them with a couple bond-heavy funds. Younger individuals using such a fund and targeting retirement in 2050 probably won't want to look at their portfolio today. It has likely dropped about 15 percent in value over the past two weeks. Retirement hopefuls targeting five years out have had to endure significantly less volatility, but even these kinds of funds have dropped about ten percent recently. By comparison, funds that are 80 percent or even 100 percent composed of bonds are up for the year. That likely sounds attractive, but if you think about the way the bond prices collapsed over the past three days, such funds may have more volatility than desired in the days ahead.
    That's why looking at these funds over the course of a full year can help. It's true the drop lately has been precipitous, but over the past year, the 2050 fund has only lost 3.9% and the 2025 fund is nearly unchanged. These amounts can easily be compensated for in any subsequent upward trend of the stock market./
  • AAA longer duration bonds a bit better, U.S.T. issues, March 20, Friday PM close, watching.....
    The below article link, written late today, expresses some reasoning as to yield increases today. Nothing really defined to me; and I will monitor for other writes about this subject that may offer definitive reasoning or examples.
    ARTICLE
  • Morningstar: the most resilient international stock funds
    Morningstar today ran an analysis of which funds have the best downside capture ratio during the current panic, which they date as 2/19 - 3/9/2020.
    Slightly surprising:
    Best: Matthews Asia Growth & Income (MACSX), 69.5%
    2. First Eagle Overseas (SGOVX), 70.7%
    3. Matthews India (MINDX), 71.4%
    4. FPA International Value (FPIVX), 71.6%
    5. Matthews Asia Dividend (MAPIX), 74.1%
    One almost would have suspected that being at the heart of the storm - i.e., Asia - would have sunk the Matthews folks. Nope.
    Best US equity funds?
    Royce Special Equity (RYSEX), 63.5%
    Yacktman Focused (YAFFX), 69.7%
    Yacktman (YACKX), 71.6%
    First Eagle US Value (FEVAX), 77.0%
    FMI Common Stock (FMMIX), 77.4%
    Royce. Hmmm. A lot of cash in the portfolio and an averse to leveraged (i.e., debt ridden) companies helps. The others keep cropped up on our "best of" screens.
    As ever,
    David
  • T. Rowe Price Institutional Africa & Middle East Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/852254/000174177320000504/c497.htm
    497 1 c497.htm IAM STICKER
    T. Rowe Price Institutional Africa & Middle East Fund
    Supplement to Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Dated March 1, 2020
    At a Board meeting held on March 9, 2020, the fund’s Board of Directors approved the closure and liquidation of the fund. The closure and liquidation are expected to occur on May 8, 2020 (“Liquidation Date”). Prior to the Liquidation Date, the assets of the fund will be liquidated at the discretion of the fund’s portfolio management and the fund will cease to pursue its investment objective. In anticipation of the closure and liquidation, effective April 27, 2020, the fund will be closed to new investors or existing shareholders to purchase Fund shares. At any time prior to the termination, we welcome you to exchange your shares of the fund for the same class of shares of another T. Rowe Price fund. After the fund is closed and liquidated, the fund will no longer be offered to shareholders for purchase.
    The date of this supplement is March 11, 2020.
    E171-041 3/11/20