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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    CBRDX - CrossingBridge Responsible Credit Instl. Vary strange name. Are all the other CB funds Irresponsible Credit?!
    Any way, Thanks for sharing @WABAC. 60% dry powder? Good for you.
    Not quite that much dry powder. Around 11% in the mm. If you throw in USFR, that's another 11%.
    PULS, VRIG, and JAAA suffered drawdowns in 2020 and/or 2022 but bounced back.
    Definitely short, and mostly floating except for MNHAX and whatever is in PRWCX.
  • Bitcoin ETF's. Thoughts?
    I have no bitcoin/crypto experience at all except for knowing that it has been incredibly volatile and speculative throughout its history. Yet I'm intrigued by the following article about upcoming momentum fueled by government support for bitcoin as an asset class. The only investment vehicles I'm aware of for bitcoin are the etf's GBTC and IBIT as well as other etf's listed in the article below. Trump seems to want to make the USA the bitcoin capital of the world. If he keeps his word (a big if) then might bitcoin become an asset class and therefore even more investable? Elon Musk holds a large amount of bitcoin.
    I welcome thoughts and opinions about bitcoin. Thanks in advance for any and all comments!
    Goldman Sachs Expands Bitcoin ETF Holdings To $710 Million
    BENZINGA
    Nov-15-2024 10:11 a.m. ET
    Goldman Sachs (GS) has dramatically increased its exposure to Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) ETFs, according to its latest 13F filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), reflecting growing institutional interest in digital assets.
    What Happened: The Wall Street powerhouse disclosed $710 million invested across multiple Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for the quarter ending September 30. A 13F filing is a quarterly report required by the SEC for institutional investors managing over $100 million in assets.
    Major Holdings in BlackRock's Bitcoin Trust
    The filing highlights Goldman Sachs’ significant stake in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust , with 12.7 million shares valued at $461 million.
    This marks an 83% increase from its August holdings of 6.9 million shares, then valued at $281 million, and solidifies Goldman's position as the second-largest holder of IBIT, trailing only Millennium Management, which leads with $844 million in holdings.
    Diversifying Bitcoin ETF Investments
    Goldman also boosted its positions in other prominent Bitcoin ETFs. Notable increases include:
    Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin ETF : 1.7 million shares worth $95.5 million, a 13% rise.
    Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (OTC:GBTC): 1.4 million shares valued at $71.8 million, a 116% increase.
    Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) : 650,961 shares worth $22.5 million, marking a 156% rise.
    The bank also reported smaller stakes in Bitcoin ETFs offered by Invesco Galaxy, WisdomTree and ARK 21Shares.
    Institutional Confidence In A Booming Market
    Goldman's expanded investments coincide with record inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. BlackRock's IBIT recently surpassed the iShares Gold ETF (IAU) in net assets, an impressive milestone considering IBIT's launch occurred just this January.
    The rising momentum aligns with broader market optimism for a pro-crypto regulatory environment under the incoming Trump administration, which has pledged support for crypto mining and a national Bitcoin reserve.
    Goldman's aggressive moves into Bitcoin ETFs underscore the shifting landscape for digital assets, signaling increasing institutional adoption of cryptocurrency as a mainstream asset class.
  • Don’t Let Politics Interfere with Your Investing
    I sold most of my bond fund holdings during 2020 and 2021 and invested most of the proceeds into utility stocks -- favoring those having at least a somewhat green look to them. Those stocks recently peaked at about 8% of my investment portfolio. Utility stocks have fared reasonably well over that time period. This morning I scaled by my allocation to utility stocks and sold one of those stocks. That decision was somewhat influenced by my expectation the incoming administration will be anti-green -- so it was influenced by politics. (The decision not to sell more was influenced by my expectation the AI boom will continue to require more energy to power more data centers and the overall green transition will continue, although more slowly, under the leadership of the incoming administration.) Anyway, I used the proceeds to buy some more NRDCX and to establish a toehold in BINC. So, I slightly shifted my portfolio from the utility stock sector back into bonds for the first time since 2020.
    It seems to me politics deserves some consideration -- at least at the margins -- when portfolio adjustments get made.
  • Don’t Let Politics Interfere with Your Investing
    there are a few coworkers I know who have taken their 401k's to settlement funds largely fearing the end of democracy is nigh. one was concerned I wasnt' concerned. I was like didn't you do this in 2016 too? they said yes. I said you realize that from nov 16 to nov 17 the market went up like 30%? (they were not aware).
    "but this time is different"....every day is different. everyday something happens in the world in a way that hasn't happened before. they may not be categorically black swan events, lets call them grey swans. and yet the world markets have prevailed. sure their gains and profits have swung to and fro but they have prevailed.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    In the IRA: Flipped FDVV for DGRW. I think I have enough Fidelity stock-picking mojo between FMILX and FDSVX. DGRW has under-performed recently but is roughly equal over the last 3 and 5 year periods with lower volatility.
    Flipped XMHQ for BIAVX. XMHQ has been too much fun for the IRA. I continue to hold XMHQ in the taxable. Here is the strategy for BIAVX:
    The Fund seeks to invest in companies at discounts to their business value, which the managers consider to be the present value of sustainable free cash flow. To identify these investment opportunities, the portfolio managers employ a disciplined, bottom-up investment process highlighted by rigorous, internally generated fundamental research. Accordingly, the portfolio managers only make investments when the managers believe that there is a sufficient discount to business value to mitigate the loss of capital in the event of adverse circumstances.
    Sold FBALX. Duration was too long, and it's too volatile for me. I have enough Fidelity stock picking to suit me. PRWCX is the one allocation fund to rule them all in my portfolio.
    Bought FFRHX. Over the last five years it has done a lot better than all those steady Eddy intermediate core funds we're supposed to own.
    Sold GLIFX. Nice fund, but since I'm trying to consolidate it seems like an easy one to do without. Proceeds will be divided between FSUTX and IYK.
    In the taxable: I put down markers in FIW, AIRR, PAVE, and GRID. There was a lot less overlap between the last three than I expected.
    I have plenty of dry powder in the taxable for future buying opportunities.
  • Warren Buffett Has a Lot of Cash
    From today's NYT:
    "Check your wallet. Count your coins. Look at your checking account. If the cash adds up to less than $325 billion, then you have less than Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway had at the end of September. A lot of the latest increase in cash and equivalents (mostly Treasury bills, actually) came from selling shares in Apple, which is still the company’s biggest stock holding. Buffett said this year that it made sense to sell and pay capital gains taxes now because the tax rate is likely to rise. He’s also not seeing any great ways to spend cash on stocks, including those of Berkshire itself. A warning for the rest of us, perhaps."
  • Madison Funds liquidated three funds
    Tax-Free Virginia, Sustainable Equity and International Stock Funds
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1040612/000175392624001853/g202525_497.htm
    497 1 g202525_497.htm 497
    Madison Funds®
    Supplement dated November 12, 2024
    This Supplement amends the Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information of the Madison Funds dated February 28, 2024, as supplemented, and the Summary Prospectus, each dated February 28, 2024, for the following funds, as applicable: Madison Tax-Free Virginia Fund, Madison Sustainable Equity Fund, Madison International Stock Fund, Madison Conversative Allocation Fund, Madison Moderate Allocation Fund, Madison Aggressive Allocation Fund, Madison Diversified Income Fund and Madison Covered Call Equity & Income Fund.
    Liquidation of Madison Tax-Free Virginia, Sustainable Equity and International Stock Funds
    On November 6, 2024, the Board of Trustees of the Madison Funds (the “Trust,” and each series thereof, a “fund”) determined that, as it relates to the Madison Tax-Free Virginia, Sustainable Equity and International Stock Funds (the “Funds”), it is in the best interest of the Funds and their shareholders to liquidate the Funds. Accordingly, the Board authorized the Trust to enter into a plan of liquidation (the “Plan”) on behalf of each Fund to accomplish this goal. It is anticipated that all outstanding shares of the Funds will be redeemed and the Funds will discontinue operations on or about the close of business on Friday, February 21, 2025 (the “Liquidation Date”), pursuant to each Plan. Any shareholder remaining in one or more of the Funds on this date will receive a liquidation distribution equal to the shareholder’s proportionate interest in the remaining net assets of the applicable Fund(s).
    To the extent possible, each Fund will be closed to new accounts, to new investments in existing accounts (other than reinvestment of income or capital gains distributions), and incoming exchanges as of the open of trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, December 8, 2024. Exceptions may be made in limited circumstances when approved by the officers of the Trust where it is not operationally possible or otherwise impracticable to prohibit new purchases by an account. Shareholders may continue to redeem their Fund shares on each day a Fund is open for business between now and the date of the planned liquidation. Shareholders may exchange their Fund shares for shares of another fund in the Madison Funds mutual fund complex in accordance with the terms of each fund’s prospectus at any time prior to the Funds’ cessation of operations. Each shareholder who does not choose either of those options and remains in a Fund until the Liquidation Date will receive a liquidating cash distribution equal to the aggregate net asset value of the Fund shares that such shareholder holds at the time of the liquidation. Shareholders are encouraged to consider options that may be suitable for the reinvestment of their liquidation proceeds, including exchanging into another fund in the Madison Funds mutual fund complex.
    You should note that on or before the Liquidation Date, the Funds will no longer actively pursue their stated investment objectives and Madison Asset Management, LLC (“Madison”), the Funds’ investment adviser, will begin to liquidate the Funds’ portfolios. To prepare for the closing and orderly liquidation of the Funds and meet anticipated redemption requests, each Fund’s portfolio managers will likely increase the portion of each Fund’s assets held in cash and similar instruments in order to pay for Fund expenses and meet redemption requests.
    The Board of Trustees may determine to accelerate the Liquidation Date. If this were to occur, revised information will be transmitted to remaining shareholders pursuant to a further prospectus supplement.
    The Funds do not give tax advice. Although the Funds believe the following information is correct, shareholders should consult with their own tax advisors. The automatic redemption on the Liquidation Date will generally be treated the same as any other redemption of Fund shares for tax purposes, so the shareholders (other than tax-qualified plans or tax-exempt accounts) will recognize a gain or loss for federal income tax purposes on the redemption of their Fund shares in the liquidation. In addition, each Fund and its shareholders will bear the transaction costs and tax consequences associated with the disposition of such Fund’s portfolio holdings prior to the Liquidation Date.
    In addition, shareholders invested through an Individual Retirement Account (“IRA”) or other tax-deferred account should consult the rules regarding the reinvestment of these assets. In order to avoid a potential tax issue, shareholders may choose to authorize, prior to the planned liquidation date, a direct transfer of their retirement account assets to another tax-deferred retirement account.
    To redeem or exchange your shares if they are held directly with the Funds, call Shareholder Services at 1-800-877-6089 between the hours of 8:00 a.m. and 7:00 p.m. Central time. If you invest in the Funds through a brokerage account or retirement plan record keeper, please contact them directly.
    Class C Shares Closing/Converting to Class A Shares
    On November 6, 2024, the Board of Trustees of the Trust also approved the termination of all outstanding Class C shares of the funds, which it has deemed to be in the best interests of the shareholders of the Class C shares of the funds. The funds with Class C shares outstanding are the Conservative Allocation Fund, Moderate Allocation Fund, Aggressive Allocation Fund, Diversified Income Fund, and Covered Call Equity & Income Fund. Class C shares will be closed to new accounts and new investments into existing accounts, other than through dividend and/or capital gain reinvestments as of December 8, 2024.
    Effective after the close of business (typically 4:00 p.m. EST) on Friday, February 14, 2025, (the “Closure Time”), Class C shares of each fund will be automatically converted to Class A shares of each respective fund as noted in the chart below. The conversion of Class C to Class A shares of the same fund is not a taxable event, and no contingent deferred sales charges will be assessed, if applicable, on this one-time conversion of shares...
  • Don’t Let Politics Interfere with Your Investing
    Yes politics...politicians...they are very much the spoon that stirs the pot or sets out the punch bowl.”
    Got me wondering. How have various Presidents / Administrations affected our investment fortunes over the time most of us have been investing? Keep in mind, please, that (political) decisions made today may have economic ramifications that last far longer (sometimes decades) beyond the tenure of the politicians that enact them (reasI oppose term limits for Congress.
    What I remember about different administrations since I began watching the markets in the 1950s:
    Eisenhower - Increased infrastructure spending. The interstate highway system we enjoy today was undertaken. Consider the effects on commerce. Also helped in the post WWII reconstruction of Japan and Europe. Costly of course.
    JFK - Promised to land a man on the moon by the end of the decade (60’s). It was costly and so strained the budget. But we continue to enjoy the benefits of the progress made in using space for our betterment. (GPS for instance). Consider all the economic benefits. Also, JFK was leary about getting deeply entrenched in Vietnam. Imagine how history and economics might have evolved had we not.
    LBJ - His legacy may well be our deepening involvement in Vietnam. Costly in lives as well as money. May have planted the seeds of the coming inflation - although demographics played a part. LBJ’s “Great Society” undertook increased Federal spending the country could ill afford at the time. This helped stoke the rising inflation.
    Nixon - Wage and price controls. A placebo / bandaid approach to combating inflation which was still in the 4-5% range. Significant in that it awakened public interest in the issue. Also, under Nixon the U.S. largely withdrew from Vietnam. Also, under Nixon the fixed price of gold at $35 an ounce was ended by international agreement.
    Ford - With the help of wife Betty, Ford introduced the “WIN” pin. (You can still buy one on eBay.) WIN stood for ”Whip Inflation Now” Another placebo approach. We Americans prefer easy solutions.
    Carter - With inflation raging (double-digits) Carter appointed Paul Volker Federal Reserve Chair in 1979. The rest is history.
    Regan - Increased defense spending sharply stoking inflation. But under Regan the steep Federal Reserve interest hikes led to a sharp recession beginning in 1981 - the worst downturn up to then since the Great Depression. Unemployment surged to 10.8% in 1982. But if you had money to invest you could pull 15% in a money market fund. Who needed stocks?
    In August 1981 Regan fired striking members of the Professional Air Traffic Controllers Organization (PATCO) after they went on strike violating a federal law against strikes. My personal view is that was the leading edge of an attack on organized labor that lasted decades. Over many years pensions were gutted and wages fell as labor’s ability to negotiate benefits waned. But this probably was beneficial for stock investors. The loss of defined benefit retirement packages also helped propel the rise of the 401-K. Some think this investment vehicle has led to a “boom” for index investing - though that’s a far reach.
    Also - In 1987 Regan appointed Alan Greenspan to Federal Reserve Chair. Under Greenspan equity markets surged. Greenspan’s tenure ended in 1986. Critics sight his monetary policy as too lax and stoking inflation in later years.
    Bush 1 - Negotiated and signed NAFTA, expanding global trade. This has paradoxically been blamed by some for loss of jobs in the U.S. - although unemployment remains low. I think the ongoing political repercussions from NAFTA do reverberate through the economy today. But they are hard to quantify.
    Clinton - We actually achieved a balanced budget under Clinton. But his personal problems partly overshadowed his accomplishments.
    Bush 2 - In Bush’s term a global recession of great magnitude ensued which cost equity (index) investors around 50% before it ended 15 months later. Junk bonds were hit hard. The Fed undertook strong monetary stimulus. The effects of those Fed stimulative measures are likely still being felt today. Federal spending increased sharply. “President George W. Bush's economic policies added $6 trillion to the national debt by funding two wars and three tax cuts.” (from the balance money.com).
    I’ll stop here. I think the effects of the last three Presidents are too recent to fully access, and very controversial, as all three continue to be actively involved in the politics of the day. Further - a global pandemic that began in 2020 greatly altered the stage. Any administration would have had trouble coping with the economic challenges. Fiscal and monetary emergency measures during the pandemic are seen as one cause of the recent inflation - along with the distortions created by the pandemic itself.
    -
    Question: Would knowing in 1950 (err … pick your start date) what future politicians would do have affected the way you would have chosen to invest for the long term?
  • T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Premium Income and Hedged Equity ETFs in registration
    From M* PRWCX Analyst Report dated 10/03/2024:
    "Although Giroux has been the main attraction, he’s not on his own running this strategy.
    Three experienced associate portfolio managers provide support and cover about 30 stocks each.
    Two analysts also recently joined the team to help with its growing workload as it recently launched
    an active equity exchange-traded fund, T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Equity,
    and an income-focused multi-asset fund in conjunction with the firm’s quantitative equity team."
  • T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Premium Income and Hedged Equity ETFs in registration
    I view prospectuses as notorious for obfuscation, aiming at ambiguity and saying as little as possible. Are there really five co-managers here? If so, then how many co-managers are there on PRWCX? Its prospectus has nearly identical wording aside from the names of the putative co-managers:
    T. Rowe Price has established an Investment Advisory Committee with respect to the fund. The committee chair is ultimately responsible for the day-to-day management of the fund’s portfolio and works with the committee in developing and executing the fund’s investment program. The members of the committee are as follows: David R. Giroux, chair, Paul Cho, Donald J. Easley, Matthew Frustaci, Steven D. Krichbaum, Kevin Patrick Loome, Simon Paterson, Sal Rais, Vivek Rajeswaran, Farris G. Shuggi, Mike Signore, Brian Solomon, Matthew Stevenson, Chen Tian, Jon Davis Wood, and Ashley R. Woodruff.
    https://prospectus-express.broadridge.com/summary.asp?doctype=pros&clientid=trowepll&fundid=77954M105
    In contrast, Giroux and Shuggi are listed as equal co-managers of PRCFX in the Management section of the prospectus. Later, in the "More About the Fund" section, one finds the committee verbiage:
    T. Rowe Price has established an Investment Advisory Committee with respect to the fund. The committee cochairs are ultimately responsible for the day-to-day management of the fund’s portfolio and work with the committee in developing and executing the fund’s investment program. The members of the committee are as follows: David R. Giroux and Farris G. Shuggi, cochairs, Paul Cho, Gregg Gola, Kevin Klassen, Steven D. Krichbaum, Chase Lancaster, Amanda Ludwitzke, Jordan M. McKinnie, Justin Eric Olsen, Vivek Rajeswaran, Nikhil Shah, Mike Signore, Latika Signorelli, Brian Solomon, Matthew Stevenson, Chen Tian, Tamara P. Wiggs, and Jon Davis Wood.
    https://prospectus-express.broadridge.com/summary.asp?doctype=pros&clientid=trowepll&fundid=77954M402
    If PRCFX has but two day-to-day managers, and if Giroux is the manager of PRWCX, then Giroux is also the sole manager of this new ETF. Conversely, if this ETF has five managers, then PRWCX has 16 and PRCFX has 19 (if I've counted correctly).
    As to AUM, M* reports Giroux manages ten funds, including variable annuity portfolios. PRCFX is the only one where there is a co-chair listed. He is sole manager (depending on how one defines "manager") of the other nine funds. Total AUM is just under $100B, per M* and Financial Times current data.
    Capital Appreciation Premium Income ETF is different from the existing funds, at least if one can glean anything from prospectus tea leaves. Its objective is "to provide regular distributions while aiming for capital preservation with potential for capital appreciation." Most of Giroux' funds' objectives are capital appreciation (or capital growth) only.
    Arguably Penn Mutual's Flexibly Managed Fund comes closer to this ETF with its objective "to seek to maximize total return (capital appreciation and income)." But investing for total return is not the same as investing for income.
    Further, only Capital Appreciation Premium Income explicitly calls out stock dividends as a component of its investment strategy. "Specifically, the fund seeks to provide regular distributions that may consist of dividends and cash from the covered call option premiums." This sounds more like an equity-income fund with a covered call overlay than a typical Giroux fund.
    Still, Flexibly Managed Fund is permitted "to a limited extent" to write covered calls "primarily in an effort to protect against downside risk or to generate additional income"
    Then again, it's all tea leaves and slideware at this point.
  • T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Premium Income and Hedged Equity ETFs in registration
    Thank you for the additional information. There are five co-managers on this ETF and D. Giroux is the lead manager. Farris G. Shuggi, is also the co-manager on the Capital Appreciation & Incone fund. Will wait for more details to be released?
  • Don’t Let Politics Interfere with Your Investing
    It appears Warren Buffett of all people may have fallen into the politics trap. He said at the BH annual meeting earlier this year "with present fiscal policies I think that something has to give, and I think that higher taxes are quite likely." He reiterated his belief that capital gains taxes would go up, which was part of his reason for preemptive selling.
    He stayed out of the race this year, but organized fundraisers in previous years for Obama and Clinton. It seems that his recent investment strategy has been partly influenced by his political prognostications. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts course going forward. He’s very pragmatic and never one to ignore reality.
  • Aegis Value Fund Distributions
    I hold Aegis Value Fund, symbol AVALX, in a retirement account but have been considering it for my taxable account since I have more room. The December income and capital gain distibution estimates are:
    Ordinary Income $0.37 - $0.41
    Short-Term Capital Gains $0.49 - $0.54
    Long-Term Capital Gains $2.66 - $2.92
    The NAV closed at 41.15 yesterday. I am in a fairly high tax bracket and it seems to me that the ordinary income and STCG distributions are fairly high. Using an NAV of 41.15, the LTCG distribution is 6.4%. That too seems high. I am concluding that AVALX is best suited for my retirement account. Is this a correct conclusion?
  • T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Premium Income and Hedged Equity ETFs in registration
    Since he is in the chair of the Advidisory Committe, he is ultimately responsible for managing the day to day managment,
    From the original registration filing:
    T. Rowe Price has established an Investment Advisory Committee with respect to the fund. The committee chair is ultimately responsible for the day-to-day management of the fund’s portfolio and works with the committee in developing and executing the fund’s investment program. The members of the committee are as follows: David R. Giroux, chair, Justin Eric Olsen, Vivek Rajeswaran, Farris G. Shuggi, Mike Signore, and Brian Solomon. The following information provides the year that the chair first joined the Firm and the chair’s specific business experience during the past five years (although the chair may have had portfolio management responsibilities for a longer period). Mr. Giroux has been chair of the committee since the fund’s inception. He joined the Firm in 1998, and his investment experience dates from that time. He has served as a portfolio manager with the Firm throughout the past five years. Messrs. Olsen, Rajeswaran, Shuggi, Signore, and Solomon have been co-portfolio managers of the fund since its inception. Mr. Olsen joined the Firm in 2014, and his investment experience dates from 2013. During the past five years, he was a member of the Quantitative team in the Fixed Income Division and has served as an associate portfolio manager (beginning in 2021). Mr. Rajeswaran joined the Firm in 2012, and his investment experience dates from that time. During the past five years, he was an analyst in the U.S. Equity Division and served as an associate portfolio manager (beginning in 2023). Mr. Shuggi joined the Firm in 2008, and his investment experience dates from that time. During the past five years, he has served as a portfolio manager (beginning in 2016), prior to becoming head of quantitative equity. Mr. Signore joined the Firm in 2015, returning in 2020, and his investment experience dates from 2010. During the past five years, he was an analyst in the U.S. Equity Division and has served as an associate portfolio manager (beginning in 2023). Mr. Solomon joined the Firm in 2015 and his investment experiences dates from that time. During the past five years, he was an analyst in the U.S. Equity Division and has served as an associate portfolio manager (beginning in 2023). The Statement of Additional Information (SAI) provides additional information about the portfolio managers’ compensation, other accounts managed by the portfolio managers, and the portfolio managers’ ownership of the fund’s shares.
  • Barron's on Funds & Retirement, 11/9/24
    Ad-hoc feature returns this week.
    LINK1 LINK2 BarronsLINK
    TRADER. Wall Street exhaled as the control of White House and Senate had clarity, but that for House is still in limbo (Republicans need to pick up only 7 more, but Democrats need 19 more). Stocks rose sharply, while the volatility index VIX fell sharply. Investors are reviewing Trumponomics 1.0 to figure out Trumponomics 2.0 and are betting on value/cyclicals (IVE), financials (XLF, KRE), energy (XLE), industrials, defense and small caps. In healthcare, Medicare Advantage (Part C) may get a boost, and ACA/Obamacare the boot.
    But the economic and market conditions now are different. It’s unclear how much of the tax cuts, tariffs (on friends and foes) and deregulations will go through. Watch tech and retail for first adverse impacts of new tariffs-counter-tariffs. Inflation may remain above the Fed’s +2% average target and that target may be in question (e.g. why not +3%?). The budget deficit is already double that in 2016, and the bond market may not like a big growth in deficits. That has been the message of the bond market already, but 5%+ 10-yr may pose real problems for both stocks and bonds. Earnings growth estimate remain strong in double-digits.
    The elections are over and Trumponomics 2.0 will be here soon. Consider financials (XLF, KBE, KRE; play on lower rates and deregulation), value/cyclicals (IVE; catchup play), small caps (IJR, SPSM; play on domestic companies), bonds (SHY, LQD, HYG; play on lower rates, even if rates may move up later due to inflation, deficits, debt). All these had strong post-election bounces, but there is more to come.
    INTERVIEW/Q&A/FUNDS. Meb FABER, Cambria (Cofounder, CEO, CIO; SYLD, etc). Value manager Faber has an active eTF SYLD that focuses on SHAREHOLDER YIELD (dividend yield + buyback yield); the eTF also takes into account valuation, quality, momentum, and has caps on sectors and countries. Since 2009, the SP500 has been a 10-bagger, beating most other things – unprecedented, comparable to the Roaring 1920s, the Nifty Fifty of early-1970s, the Dot. com bubble of late-1990s, or whatever. Both earnings growth and P/E expansion contributed to this fantastic move. But where to now? If you put value and trend (momentum) in 4 boxes, the best box has low valuation and uptrend, but the 2nd best box is expensive valuation and uptrend (meaning trend trumps valuation). The ways to diversify away from market-cap indexes include dividend stocks (obviously, Faber prefers shareholder yield), foreign markets, EMs, etc. The firm also has an active global asset allocation eTF GAA, an eTF of eTFs.
    FUNDS. Indexing has benefited large caps. Many startups and early-stage companies remain private longer, and there are several unicorns among the private companies. The M&A and bankruptcy have eliminated many weak public small caps. So, the universe of public small caps has shrunk. The total market Wilshire 5000 index now has only 3,370 stocks. Small cap R2000 has many unprofitable companies (a better small-cap index is SP SC 600). People are thinking that the old Fama-French studies about outperformance of small caps don’t apply anymore. Mentioned are OEFs AVALX, NEAGX; eTFs DFAS, IJR, IWM, SPSM. (By @lewisbraham at MFO)
    FUNDS. Post-election, Tesla/TSLA has run up sharply, but the new CEF DXYZ (3/26/24- ) has done twice better; its premium is an astounding +329%. It has high exposure to TSLA and SpaceX. The fund buys private unicorns through their venture-capital financing and pre-IPO stages. But its recent rise may be as fleeting as its moonshot in April. (Retail investors don’t have easy access to the private-equity market, so the premium is so high. The private-equity market is quite illiquid and volatile.)
    INCOME. Small caps with good dividends include CWH (retail), CRGY (energy), KGS (energy); eTFs DES, OUSM. Small caps are seen among the beneficiaries of Trumponomics 2.0.
    OTHER VOICES. Allan SLOAN. There aren’t many companies that now offer traditional/DB PENSION plans. Those that still offer them to current employees or retirees are offloading the DB pension plans for ANNUITIES from insurers. The characterization and evaluation of liabilities are different for pension plans and insurers. So, companies typically have large one-time gains on these conversions. An obvious loss for beneficiaries is the loss of PBGC guarantee for the pension plans (and they don’t have a say on what insurer was chosen for conversion).
    RETIREMENT. Just when investors thought that bond yields were head lower, they rose instead. The bond market is getting nervous about annual deficits and total debt. Bond volatility index MOVE is high (it has eased some post-election). But the bond market is more than the rate-sensitive Treasuries. Consider shorter maturities with more credit risks – VMBS, IGSB, USHY, FRA (CEF).
  • GASFX... Other NG Funds May Power AI
    Interview with Evercore's James West:
    Evercore ISI senior managing director James West speaks more about whether fears of Trump's impact on the industry are overblown.
    "The fact remains that the IRA bill, which is the largest investment in climate and clean tech that the world has ever seen, is largely going to remain intact because 80% of the job creation and the capital spending is going to red states, or red districts, if not higher now that more states have flipped red," West tells Yahoo Finance.
    Clean energy producers and even nuclear energy developers have been posed as the solution to AI data center's energy demands.
    natural-gas-big-winner-powers Manufacturing and New Tech (AI)
  • T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Premium Income and Hedged Equity ETFs in registration
    David Giroux will manage the Capital Appreciation Premium Income ETF.

    I have stopped counting, but pray, tell, how many funds can this one man possibly "manage"?
    Just curious, but does the word "manage" still have any meaning in this context?