Hi @Derf, Thank you for your question. In responding to it ... I can review my portfolio (performance wise) through M*'s portfolio manager on a daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, year to date, one year, three year, five year and ten year periods. In addition, some of the things tracked are the dividend yield, valuation, % weight of portfolio, daily change, unrealized gains, duration, maturity, expense ratio, & below 52 week high, plus some other things one of them being style box assignment.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/2020/06/12/as-market-volatility-returns-check-out-these-strategies-to-protect-your-portfolio/#214c7ccc538b
As Market Volatility Returns, Check Out These Strategies To Protect Your Portfolio
Take advantage of any recovery today to initiate iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG), iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ETF (SPY) and iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund (EWH) put strategies. COVID-19 and economic disappointment potential is not a respecter of equity valuation. Yesterday’s performance reminds us that the markets tether to fundamentals can be loose, but it nonetheless exists.
We’ve been recommending playing for extreme outcomes and it still makes sense. Here is the cocktail designed to improve portfolio diversification against a number of scenarios and severity over the next several months until the picture gets clearer.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2020/06/12/municipal-bonds-swinging-back-up-if-modestly
Municipal Bonds Swinging Back Up, If Modestly
by Rob Amodeo of Western Asset Management,
After some wildness, the municipal bond market has posted strong overall returns in last few weeks. Investment grade municipal bond returns are positive for 2020

@Catch22 and others have been mentioning this very thing, I recall. Makes sense. I had been operating on an "old school" basis. 36% stocks now, 58% bonds. Goal: up to 65% bonds. But I won't be putting in much effort to get there. Looking 5 years out and trying to estimate profit, particularly now, would be a wild guess. Nevertheless, my "go-to" page is still Morningstar. They're telling me via X-Ray that my particular mix of funds will get me a 5-year yield that's 44% better than the Index they're using. As for cap gains, measured by EPS growth over 5 years: 31% better than the S&P500. But maybe that's just wishful thinking, based on normal times, anyhow. Covid-19 changes everything. Anyhow, the dividends I get monthly are not nothing. If I need to start collecting them--- after we move in the Spring to a bigger place, maybe--- they will be a big help with utilities, for example. Lots of solar here, though. If we're fortunate, we'll grab one of those.

Reliable Clements has some thoughts:
https://humbledollar.com/2020/06/farewell-yield/

From the article and then my comments
1) Abandon bonds = Rediculous idea. I have talked to many retirees and they don't want the high volatility that stocks offer
2) Delay Social Security: you can do lots of calculations based on estimates but you can't predict the future. Just start in the middle, my wife and I will start taking SS at age 65 because of the above + Medicare and taxes will be deducted from SS too.
3) immediate fixed annuities: not an easy choice. If you don't have enough you can't afford it. If you have enough you don't need it. You also can't assume treasury yield will stay lower and since I don't care about treasuries I also know funds that pay over 4%. PIMIX stills pays over 5%.
4) tax efficiency: always important.
Most of these generic articles/research hardly ever offer what to do such as 1) not all bonds are treasuries 2) there are several great mutual funds 3) most retirees can't work forever or delay their retirement and don't have enough money. I want to see more ideas.
Example1: in one month, GWMEX,ORNAX,NHMAX made over 6%.
Example 2: I think that Kitces has better ideas than most. See (link) “rising equity glidepath” actually does improve retirement outcomes = start at lower % in stocks and increase gradually

I transferred my Roth IRA to Vanguard a little over one year ago. After the transfer, FMIJX was replaced with VWILX. I did not expect VWILX to significantly outperform FMIJX during severe market downturns.
FMIJX - Max. 2020 Drawdown: -28.24%; YTD Performance: -19.10%
VWILX - Max. 2020 Drawdown: -15.52%; YTD Performance: 6.34%
FMI funds have often performed well during past market selloffs.

Reliable Clements has some thoughts:
https://humbledollar.com/2020/06/farewell-yield/

@WABAC said,

I have also seen activity attributed to sports bettors with no place to go.

Another reference:

Robinhood added more than three million funded accounts in the first four months of 2020, and half of customers who opened accounts this year said they were first-time investors, according to Nora Chan, a spokeswoman for the Menlo Park, California-based firm. E*Trade Financial Corp. had 329,000 net new accounts in the first three months of the year, with 260,000 added in March alone, the firm said in its first-quarter earnings statement. That was more than the company’s previous best annual net record.
While day trading can be risky and Portnoy might not be the best role model for young investors, Emanuel and Geraci said they think younger investors entering the market is positive for the long-term.
“The danger to the accessibility of it is very clear because you are bringing people in who may not be terribly qualified,” Emanuel said. “You learn more when you’re losing.”

barstool-sports-dave-portnoy

Congratulations to the Class of 2020! I must admit, when I pictured my eldest daughter graduating high school, I did not imagine her wearing a mask with her cap and gown while receiving her diploma in my backyard. Although the traditional festivities did not occur, I can say that she, along with all other graduates, are moving onto college or entering the work place with valuable lessons in hand. From adapting to online learning to enduring the uncertainty that life can throw our way, this class has displayed incredible resilience and we wish them the best of luck in their future endeavors. Resiliency also comes to mind when I think of the US equity market. COVID-19 resulted in one of the swiftest declines in history, but the rally has been historic too. Before yesterday’s pullback, the S&P 500 was up ~43% and even briefly turned positive on the year. Due to inflated optimism and the market pricing in an exorbitant amount of positive news, the uptick in volatility had been expected./

https://www.google.com/amp/s/in.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idINKBN23K033
After jolt, investors still see stocks as long-term bet
Friday, June 12, 2020 10:37 a.m. EDT by Thomson Reuters
By Kate Duguid and Megan Davies
NEW YORK (Reuters) - An interruption to a searing rally gave a jolt to equity investors who had been getting used to weeks of steadily rising U.S. stocks
Imho, nothing is as attractive as long term bets on stocks

Https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/markets-investing/2020/06/12/weekly-investment-strategy
Weekly Investment Strategy
MARKETS AND INVESTING
June 12, 2020
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Key Takeaways
Robust Recovery Is The General ‘School Of Thought’
Investors Hope A Second Wave Is ‘The Road Not Taken’
Valuations Require Investors To ‘Put Their Thinking Caps On’

https://money.usnews.com/investing/funds/slideshows/best-t-rowe-price-funds-for-retirement
These funds stand out in a crowded market.
When you’re choosing how to invest for retirement, T. Rowe Price funds are a recognizable name. T. Rowe Price retirement funds vie for investors’ attention alongside options from other large brokerages such as Vanguard and Fidelity. However, these funds feature some unique characteristics that set them apart from the competition. “Their goal seems to strive for steady and consistent returns without the razzle-dazzle of some other firms,” says Steve Azoury, financial advisor and owner of Azoury Financial in Troy, Michigan. “They don’t go for home runs and they rarely strike out, making them one of the most steady and respected firms in the investment business.” With a wide range of mutual fund options to choose from, it’s possible to build a customized retirement portfolio centered on your needs and goals. Here are seven of the best T. Rowe Price funds to consider when investing for retirement.
The seven best T. Rowe Price retirement funds:
— T. Rowe Price Growth Stock Fund (PRGFX)
— T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund (TRBCX)
— T. Rowe Price Retirement 2040 Fund (TRRDX)
— T. Rowe Price Retirement 2030 Fund (TRRCX)
— T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund (PRWCX)
— T. Rowe Price U.S. Bond Enhanced Index Fund (PBDIX)
— T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund (PRHSX)

This simple equation does a good job of explaining overall market behavior since mid-March.

The stock market equation since March 23 has been: TINA + MMT = MAMU
Mother of All Meltups = MAMU
There is no alternative to stocks = TINA
Modern Monetary Theory = MMT

If this is the case, I am left wondering how the P/E ratio will be evaluated going forward.
blog.yardeni.com/2020/06/mamu-mother-of-all-meltups.html

It doesn't look like they're making ROC payments. These aren't forms I generally look for (because funds I invest in return little if any capital, as is the case for most OEFs), but here is what I know;

Section 19(a) of the Investment Company Act of 1940 (the 1940 Act) generally prohibits a business development company (BDC) or a registered investment company from making a distribution from any source other than its net income (e.g., out of capital), unless that payment is accompanied by a written statement that adequately discloses the source or sources of the payment.
... the Section 19(a) notice [must] be sent to stockholders contemporaneously with the distribution payment.

https://us.eversheds-sutherland.com/mobile/NewsCommentary/Legal-Alerts/214294/Legal-Alert-SEC-Staff-states-that-IRS-Form-1099-DIV-cannot-be-used-to-satisfy-the-requirements-of-Section-19a-of-the-Investment-Company-Act-of-1940
Checking for 19A notices on the TCW (MetWest/TCW funds) site, one finds no 2020 notices, and the only notices for any MetWest fund for any year are for MetWest's Low Duration and Unconstrained Bond Funds, and then only for 2019. Even those notices show only tiny amounts of ROC for those other funds.
https://www.tcw.com/en/Literature/Tax-Center
Here's an example of what one expect to find from a fund that made frequent ROC payments:
https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/planning-and-research/tax-planning/distribution-notices.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/overheated-momentum-doomed-stock-market-155204976.html
Overheated Momentum’ Doomed Stock Market to
June 11, 2020, 10:52 AM CDT
/Overheated Momentum’ Doomed Stock Market to Quick Reversal
(Bloomberg) -- In a stock market inundated with retail investors rushing in to buy anything that moves, the swift reversal we’re seeing was more or less inevitable./
Is this a fierce corrections Will we see DOWS 18k levels again?...we are at where we were 2 wks ago

This fund has had incredibly strong performance since opening in Nov of 2018, up 27.8% since inception. I can't figure out how the yield is so high, 18%.
It has about 57% in investment grade bonds, mostly mortgages and corporate credit, no EM, a duration of 2.67, an average bond price of $94.11 and 23% in cash. Non of that indicates anything risky. It only dropped about 5% in March and is up 7% YTD.
Are they doing a "return of capital"? Is it because their asset base of 12 million is so small? They have a small amount in a few derivatives but nothing close to what Pimco uses. Seems to good to be true, what am I missing?

We all have some sort of “barometer”: Internal guidance, hunches, an index we watch, technicals, a plan written down, prior experience or maybe a “guru” we follow. @Junkster, who I’ve enjoyed following a long time, seems to rely heavily on some technical indicators. Currently under discussion is the Zweig Indicator. I’m “late to school” when it comes to technicals. Even today I view them with a bit of skepticism, telling myself they’re probably better indicators of market psychology than anything else. Given that, in this era of investing, psychology - if not the name of the game - is very important however you cut it.
I enjoy Ol’Skeet’s comprehensive write-ups very much. All of us can take a cue from his meticulous planning and devotion to his value metrics. Is he always right? Don’t know. My recollection says “no.” So I went back and looked at what he wrote on March 20. That had to be very close to the recent bottom. Remember it because I made a small purchase of DODGX that day.
“The barometer as of market close Thursday maintains its reading of 180 indicating that the S&P 500 Index is extremely oversold. I am also detecting that a bottom is forming as three of the data feeds and influences that the barometer use are green lighting.” (March 20, 2020)
So good call back than Ol’Skeet.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/55474/old-skeet-s-market-barometer-spring-reporting-and-my-positioning/p2

The market is running on fumes, hoping that 4 Qtr 2020 or at worse 2021 earnings are back to pre covid levels. Powell said they will not be, as he does not expect economy to recover until at least late 2021

VWINX most recently experienced a (-18.5 %) draw down (from its recent high on 2/21/2020) and a DD recovery of a little less than 4 months time (Feb - June). I spent some time today reviewing and comparing VWINX to other funds I own.
On a YTD basis many of my funds have returned to positive territory.
Allocation funds that I own that are positive YTD - PRWCX, VGSTX, VWINX - each roughly 2% positive
Allocation fund that is still negative - BRUFX - down 2%
Some other fund in the red YTD:
FRIFX - down 11% (riskier than I imagined)
THOPX - down 7.3% (Poor performance for what I consider a cash like fund)
FMIJX - down 16.8% (has had some recent big up days) - Toe hold
VMVFX - down 10.4% (this has been a surprise to me...very volatile recently)
POAGX - down 0.5% (Always surprises)
VHCOX - down 3.2%
VWO / VEIEX - down 9.3% - Toe Hold
Some funds in the black YTD:
VGHCX - up 3.9%
PRHSX - up 5.6%
FSRPX - up 11.4% (retail choices in this fund are far from dead)
FSMEX - up 2.6% (medical device companies have been good past performers)
PRMTX - up 19.95% (its recent DD was similar to VWINX, but its 100% Media and Tech)
PRGSX - up 8.6% (showing strong momentum from the bottom)
PRNHX - up 16.9% (wish...need to own more)
PRIDX - up 1.8% - Toe Hold
Cash like Funds YTD:
VFISX - up 3.3%
PRWBX - up 2.5%
PTIAX - up 0.1%
I try to identify and understand the downside risk (beta) in my holdings and getting more practice than I wish for. It is probably a more important dynamic than upside potential (alpha). Downside risk either bruises, cuts, or maims your portfolio. I'm trying to minimize the cutting and the maiming.
Anything surprising you in your portfolio?

Demand is bouncing back in China and stimulus packages being unleashed across the developed world promise to transform the long-term outlook -- particularly with spending on copper-intensive green energy infrastructure. The coronavirus has also disrupted mines and delayed new builds, throttling current and future supply.
“Copper is coming out of this crisis differently,” Bintas said by phone from Geneva. “When lockdowns were eased and people started to return to work, we were surprised to see our customers not only taking deliveries of volumes they’d already bought, but requesting more to cover themselves in case there were any further disruptions to supply.”

https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-10/new-king-of-copper-trading-sees-demand-coming-back-even-stronger?sref=g4EhC0E7
Do investors see GLFOX (Infrastructure funds ), VGPMX (Natural Resources/Precious Metals) funds and even VWO (VEIEX) (which seems to move when PMs move up & down with NR/PM) working again?
Next stimulus bill should include infrastructure projects.
Pro's & Cons for infrastructure stimulus:
case-against-infrastructure-stimulus
stimulus-checks-infrastructure-phase-four