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When Can America Reopen From Its Coronavirus Shutdown?
This article is divided into six sections. You can jump to the section of interest. Section 3 talks about relevant lessons learned from the Spanish Flu pandemic. Section 5 discusses methods that may make it possible to reopen parts of the economy fairly rapidly. (Just scroll to the top if the link takes you to the bottom of the article.)
CROWD CONTROL: Walmart still wants customers, just fewer of them at a time. The nation’s largest retailer said it will now allow no more than five customers for each 1,000 square feet at a given time, roughly about 20% of the average store’s capacity. To oversee the restriction, workers will mark a queue at a single-entry door, and direct arriving customers there, where they’ll be admitted one by one. Walmart joins Target and others in trying to limit the number of customers in the store to curb the spread of the coronavirus.
Here is one approach being considered in Italy: The scientific and political communities there are looking seriously at utilizing antibody testing to help determine who will be permitted to go back to work and move freely in public.
Having the right antibodies to the virus in one’s blood — a potential marker of immunity — may soon determine who gets to work and who does not, who is locked down and who is free.
The antibodies in healed Italians could be a valuable tool in determining who could safely exit quarantine to work, Dr. Crisanti said.
In Veneto, Mr. Zaia has proposed that Italians in possession of antibodies showing they no longer have the virus could obtain a “license” that allows them to move around the country and work.
Yes. Perhaps it would. But, considering that approach makes particular sense to me when thinking about staff hires in hospital and nursing home settings (until a reliable vaccine becomes widely distributed).
Testing will be critical. For some reason that wasn't part of the politico analysis. We're still unable to do widespread testing even now. Shortages of reagents & PPE (as well as consistent leadership at the very top) still hamper this.
While it is way too soon, getting somethings back up in safe manner is what we need to study. How can we morph our society and economy into one that is safe?
My son is a county park manager (essential) and had to go pickup a tractor bucket from a vendor. Called first, made an appointment, drove to the back of the building and called again. They opened the door, brought the bucket out and put it on his trailer. They waived and he was gone.
We have a local farmer that sells starts and plants in the spring. He's always been an Honor System vendor (e.g. put your money in a box and take change if you need it) but he's already come out on his fb page how he's going to be safe, comply and be open for business.
All that said, right now we all have to stay home. Period. It's going to be an ugly few weeks folks.
I've been talking with my brother more than we've done in years. He's Associate Dean of Medical Education at a Med School and spent 25 years running an ER Residency program. Huge problem with the lack of testing, PPE gear, ventilators, etc. We had absolutely no surge capacity anywhere in the system. None. We used to have departments and offices at all levels of gov't to deal with pandemics and all. We used to have supplies and inventory. Not any more. All that 'what if' stuff has fallen to the budget axe over many administrations and in the hospitals. Have to cut costs and it's such low hanging fruit. In addition, Just in Time Supply is pervasive in every field including health care and medicine. Oh, and he starts all of this with the fact that Trump's an idiot. He's leaning towards the middle to high side estimates. Sorry.
BTW, wait until you start seeing layoffs in the health care industry?!? Health care is so specialized these days a LOT of people cannot 'cross over'. There's no elective surgery going on anywhere on the planet. The folks that replaced my hip a few years back will most often receive three choices - furlough with unemployment, taking vacation and sick time, volunteering to 'be reassigned'.
“Historically, this has worked,” said Dr. Jeffrey Henderson, associate professor of medicine and molecular microbiology at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis. “Before we had vaccines, this was used for infectious diseases like measles and diphtheria.”
Convalescent plasma was also successfully used during the 1918 flu pandemic, he said.
Doctors say protocols, such as dosage, are still uncertain for COVID-19 patients, but they believe the method is worth trying, at least until an effective COVID-19 vaccine or treatment is developed.
The Mayo Clinic and other U.S. sites are conducting a clinical study. Similar trials are under way in other countries where the virus has hit and some data has begun to emerge.
In one trial in China, levels of the virus in five seriously ill COVID-19 patients were undetectable after plasma transfusions, according to study results published last week in The Journal of the American Medical Association.
@rono, I hear you. It is a mess from the lack of leadership from Trump while not taking this COVID-19 seriously. There are many states still resist of the lockdown and large social gathering especially those states down south.
I realize that some of you may be mildly shocked when I say this, but by no means is all of this Trump's doing. It's been building for many, many years now, and the chickens that flew off have come home as swans. Here's a copy of something I just posted in another thread:
I have to concede that I was very much against the "offshoring" of such critical types of manufactures back in the 80's, and I've seen no reason to change my mind on that. In fact that's one of the few areas with which I basically agree with Mr. Trump. If it's non-critical to the safety, defense, or economy of the US, fine- manufacture it wherever is the cheapest. Otherwise, do it here!
If ever there was an example of the results from letting libertarian financial types and market capitalists run free, this is it. For years people of respectable credentials have pointed out the dangers involved, but no administration of either political party took notice or alarm. You need look no farther to observe the results of the lobbying and bribing of the Koch brothers and their bought and paid for Cato Institute. Those people have made their vast fortunes here in the United States, but have absolutely no loyalty to anything other than profit, no matter the damage to our country.
@MikeW You are welcome. I had been thinking about that topic in relation to medical staff and senior housing care providers. So, it was of interest to me too. @rono Good to read you have a soft spot for non technical writing by well qualified economists. My mid career graduate degree was in applied economics. So, likewise for me.
@davfor teehehe. I finished my BA in Econ in the late 70s financed by the GI Bill and selling my stash of 90% US silver into the Hunt Bros bull market. My Econ professors are still some of the few people who knew WTF was going on. Take care.
Good morning Not trying to downplay virus issues /data but seems many major medical centers in major cities are extremelyslow right now [except hotspots NYC New Jersey NOLA]. We have family members working in austin and houston medical centers, they says rate of patients coming to er/hospitals down by 80-90% compared to Nov-Dec19. Their medical facilities are ghost town resemblance. Also not many active COVID19 cases.
Do you see similar themes in your local hospitals with down screenings and not too busy ER/HOSPITALS. Others argue these previous news maybe overhyped by Media. Virus deceased data of course real but it seems majority of US may have it under control. At least preliminary data demonstrates limited admissions and ICU care. As others stated, hope we can flatten curve soon....we will know in several weeks and hope for the best. Hopefully these are good signs and we are doing good job of virus containment.
My brother works as RN, he says they cut back his shifts by 30%, because he is not needed most of time because limited admissions and everything shut down, no more elective procedures at least until May 5th. Think most private physicians are also suffering not getting enough patients and supporting staff furloughed.
Hopeful for economy slowly reopen in 5-8 weeks/things slowly return to normalcy
The private for profit health care system is imploding before our eyes. The vast majority of hospitals are on the brink of financial collapse because of their business model based on elective and bullshit surgeries and procedures. Hell, they're laying off like crazy AND Americans are dying.
@rono - who said "The private for profit health care system is imploding before our eyes." Honestly I can't say that's a bad thing. I remember going to the doctor as a kid up through going as a dad through maternity/childbirth. Appointment-treated-doctor sent invoice-patient paid. There was no mention of insurance, healthcare providers, in/out of network bullshit. It was like a trip to your auto mechanic or grocery store or hardware store or lumber yard, whatever. Now those bloodsuckers in the middle add in multiple layers of worthless nonsense and red tape voodoo that do nothing but gouge patients/clients and leave them in debt and despair. Honestly can anybody tell me WTF good they are?
What's worse, if I try to go to a doctor's office or a medical clinic with CASH, DOLLAR BILLS in my hand I get charged 1.5-2X the amount because I don't use the insurer's or their healthcare plans either in or out of network. Get back to me when you figure that one out would you please.
@JohnN - I sincerely hope that what you reported regarding slow/empty ER's is true. I have many friends (nurses/doctors/otherwise) in the field and they are not seeing that yet. Change would be welcome.
Comments
Stay the **** at Home
p.s. I'm sorry that it's colorful David but he smiles at the end.
CROWD CONTROL: Walmart still wants customers, just fewer of them at a time. The nation’s largest retailer said it will now allow no more than five customers for each 1,000 square feet at a given time, roughly about 20% of the average store’s capacity. To oversee the restriction, workers will mark a queue at a single-entry door, and direct arriving customers there, where they’ll be admitted one by one. Walmart joins Target and others in trying to limit the number of customers in the store to curb the spread of the coronavirus.
From the Atlantic regarding timeline considerations:
https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-social-distancing-over-back-to-normal/608752/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=atlantic-daily-newsletter&utm_content=20200330&silverid=NTkyMTU3MDQwMTE1S0
From John Oliver:
Great article [rono loves to read economists].
While it is way too soon, getting somethings back up in safe manner is what we need to study. How can we morph our society and economy into one that is safe?
My son is a county park manager (essential) and had to go pickup a tractor bucket from a vendor. Called first, made an appointment, drove to the back of the building and called again. They opened the door, brought the bucket out and put it on his trailer. They waived and he was gone.
We have a local farmer that sells starts and plants in the spring. He's always been an Honor System vendor (e.g. put your money in a box and take change if you need it) but he's already come out on his fb page how he's going to be safe, comply and be open for business.
All that said, right now we all have to stay home. Period. It's going to be an ugly few weeks folks.
I've been talking with my brother more than we've done in years. He's Associate Dean of Medical Education at a Med School and spent 25 years running an ER Residency program. Huge problem with the lack of testing, PPE gear, ventilators, etc. We had absolutely no surge capacity anywhere in the system. None. We used to have departments and offices at all levels of gov't to deal with pandemics and all. We used to have supplies and inventory. Not any more. All that 'what if' stuff has fallen to the budget axe over many administrations and in the hospitals. Have to cut costs and it's such low hanging fruit. In addition, Just in Time Supply is pervasive in every field including health care and medicine. Oh, and he starts all of this with the fact that Trump's an idiot. He's leaning towards the middle to high side estimates. Sorry.
BTW, wait until you start seeing layoffs in the health care industry?!? Health care is so specialized these days a LOT of people cannot 'cross over'. There's no elective surgery going on anywhere on the planet. The folks that replaced my hip a few years back will most often receive three choices - furlough with unemployment, taking vacation and sick time, volunteering to 'be reassigned'.
and so it goes,
peace and flatten the curve,
rono
@rono, I hear you. It is a mess from the lack of leadership from Trump while not taking this COVID-19 seriously. There are many states still resist of the lockdown and large social gathering especially those states down south.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2020/04/04/coronavirus-government-dysfunction/?arc404=true
@rono Good to read you have a soft spot for non technical writing by well qualified economists. My mid career graduate degree was in applied economics. So, likewise for me.
Rono
Not trying to downplay virus issues /data but seems many major medical centers in major cities are extremelyslow right now [except hotspots NYC New Jersey NOLA]. We have family members working in austin and houston medical centers, they says rate of patients coming to er/hospitals down by 80-90% compared to Nov-Dec19. Their medical facilities are ghost town resemblance. Also not many active COVID19 cases.
Do you see similar themes in your local hospitals with down screenings and not too busy ER/HOSPITALS. Others argue these previous news maybe overhyped by Media. Virus deceased data of course real but it seems majority of US may have it under control. At least preliminary data demonstrates limited admissions and ICU care. As others stated, hope we can flatten curve soon....we will know in several weeks and hope for the best. Hopefully these are good signs and we are doing good job of virus containment.
My brother works as RN, he says they cut back his shifts by 30%, because he is not needed most of time because limited admissions and everything shut down, no more elective procedures at least until May 5th. Think most private physicians are also suffering not getting enough patients and supporting staff furloughed.
Hopeful for economy slowly reopen in 5-8 weeks/things slowly return to normalcy
The private for profit health care system is imploding before our eyes. The vast majority of hospitals are on the brink of financial collapse because of their business model based on elective and bullshit surgeries and procedures. Hell, they're laying off like crazy AND Americans are dying.
Medicare for all or war.
And so it goes
Peace and Flatten the Curve
Rono
What's worse, if I try to go to a doctor's office or a medical clinic with CASH, DOLLAR BILLS in my hand I get charged 1.5-2X the amount because I don't use the insurer's or their healthcare plans either in or out of network. Get back to me when you figure that one out would you please.
@JohnN - I sincerely hope that what you reported regarding slow/empty ER's is true. I have many friends (nurses/doctors/otherwise) in the field and they are not seeing that yet. Change would be welcome.