Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Here Are 12 Investing Superstars in 2020, According to Morningstar
    https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2020/06/15/here-are-12-investing-superstars-in-2020-according-to-morningstar/
    Here Are 12 Investing Superstars in 2020, According to Morningstar
    Morningstar has announced the nominees for its 2020 Awards for Investing Excellence, which recognizes established and up-and-coming portfolio managers for stellar performance as well as the asset management firm that excels in its stewardship of investors’ money. T. Rowe Price was the only firm that was nominated in all three categories. Fidelity had two nominations.
    Anyone recommend any of these funds?
  • To Succeed at Investing, Do What Yale Does
    https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T047-C032-S014-to-succeed-at-investing-do-what-yale-does.html
    To Succeed at Investing, Do What Yale Does
    Yale's endowment has delivered consistent income with minimal stock risk. Here's a look at how they did it and what it could mean for you and your portfolio
    .Yale takes a much different approach as you can see with their published asset allocation targets for their fiscal 2020:
    Absolute return: 23%
    Venture capital: 21.5%
    Leveraged buyouts: 16.5%
    Foreign equity: 13.75%
    Real estate: 10%
    Bonds and cash: 7%
    Natural resources: 5.5%
    Domestic equity: 2.75%
  • Charts suggest new highs 'could be on the table' for the S&P 500, Jim Cramer says
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/18/jim-cramer-charts-suggest-new-highs-are-in-store-for-the-sp-50.html
    Charts suggest new highs 'could be on the table' for the S&P 500, Jim Cramer says
    PUBLISHED THU, JUN 18 2020 7:47 PM EDT
    Tyler Clifford
    "The charts suggest that new highs could be on the table," CNBC's Jim Cramer.
    A chart analyst sees a scenario where the S&P 500 runs 9% from Thursday's close to a new high near 3,400.
    "The next ceiling of resistance is around 3,250, if we can clear that hurdle, Garner believes it's smooth sailing to that high," the "Mad Money" host said.
    ...he does point out reasonable sp500 future directions
  • Seeking yield? Don’t put all your eggs in one (income) basket
    https://www.blackrockblog.com/2020/06/17/seeking-yield-dont-put-all-your-eggs-in-one-income-basket/
    Seeking yield? Don’t put all your eggs in one (income) basket
    Karen Schenone, CFA
    Looking to generate income from your nest egg? Make sure you don’t get it all from just one basket. Karen explains two funds designed to provide income that aren’t over reliant on any one source.
    The diversified approach of BYLD and IYLD has offered a middle ground of yield and risk versus traditional asset classes
    Income is an important aspect to many portfolios and often the top priority when it comes to investing. Although we may be in a low yield environment today, opportunities for potential income continue to exist both in bonds and broader asset classes. Constructing the optimal portfolio while weighing risk and return is difficult. Accessible and adaptable ETFs like the iShares income optimized BYLD and IYLD may be a g
  • Driving, not Flying
    Interesting...maybe the year of the RV?
    There’s an interesting thing happen between the rate at which flying returns versus driving. It’s intuitive that people taking trips this summer would prefer to do so by car, with gasoline being cheaper and proximity to strangers being shunned. I think it could be years before we’re flying at the rates we used to.
    driving-not-flying/
  • Aberdeen Diversified Alternatives Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413594/000110465920074561/a20-22854_2497.htm
    497 1 a20-22854_2497.htm 497
    ABERDEEN FUNDS
    Aberdeen Diversified Alternatives Fund
    Supplement dated June 18, 2020 to the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information dated February 28, 2020, as supplemented to date
    On June 17, 2020, the Board of Trustees of Aberdeen Funds (the “Trust”) approved a Plan of Liquidation for the Aberdeen Diversified Alternatives Fund (the “Fund”) pursuant to which the Fund will be liquidated (the “Liquidation”) on or about August 17, 2020 (the “Liquidation Date”). Shareholder approval of the Liquidation is not required.
    Suspension of Sales. Effective after market close on June 19, 2020, shares of the Fund will no longer be available for purchase by investors with the exception of: (1) existing shareholders (including shares acquired through the reinvestment of dividends and distributions); (2) employer sponsored retirement plans; or (3) fee-based programs sponsored by financial intermediaries that have selected the Fund prior to market close on June 19, 2020. Effective after market close on July 31, 2020, the Fund will be closed to all investments except shares acquired through the reinvestment of dividends and distributions.
    Liquidation of Assets. The Fund will depart from its stated investment objective and policies as it liquidates holdings in preparation for the distribution of assets to investors. During this time, the Fund may hold more cash, cash equivalents or other short-term investments than normal, which may prevent the Fund from meeting its stated investment objective. On the Liquidation Date, the Fund will liquidate and distribute pro rata to the shareholders of record as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date such shareholders’ proportionate interest in all of the remaining assets of the Fund in complete cancellation and redemption of all the outstanding shares of the Fund. See “IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR QUALIFIED ACCOUNT HOLDERS” below if you are a qualified account holder. Contingent deferred sales charges will be waived in connection with any redemptions prior to the Liquidation Date. The Fund’s investment adviser, Aberdeen Standard Investments Inc., will bear all expenses of the Liquidation to the extent such expenses are not part of the Fund’s normal and customary fees and operating expenses; however, the Fund and its shareholders will bear transaction costs and tax consequences associated with turnover of the Fund’s portfolio in anticipation of the Liquidation.
    Alternatives. At any time prior to the Liquidation Date, the Fund’s shareholders may redeem all or a portion of their shares or exchange their Fund shares for shares in the corresponding class of another series of the Trust pursuant to procedures set forth in the Trust’s Prospectus. If you wish to exchange your shares of the Fund into another series of the Trust, or would like to request additional copies of the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information for the Trust, please call Aberdeen Funds Shareholder Services at 866-667-9231.
    Holders through Financial Intermediaries. If you are invested in the Fund through a financial intermediary, please contact that financial intermediary if you have any questions. If you are invested in a tax qualified account, please see important additional information below.
    Income Tax Matters. The liquidation of the Fund, like any redemption of Fund shares, will constitute a sale upon which a gain or loss may be recognized for state and federal income tax purposes, depending on the type of account and the adjusted cost basis of the investor’s shares. Please contact your tax advisor to discuss the tax consequences to you of the Liquidation.
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR QUALIFIED ACCOUNT HOLDERS
    Fund Direct IRA Accounts
    Fund Direct IRA accounts are those created for investment in the series of the Trust for which UMB Bank N.A. acts as custodian. Unless a shareholder, or other financial intermediary on behalf of such shareholder, provides instructions otherwise, Fund shares held on the Liquidation Date in Fund Direct IRAs will be redeemed in cash and the proceeds sent directly to the beneficiary of the account, which may result in the imposition of tax penalties.
    If you wish to avoid tax penalties that may be imposed if your Fund shares are liquidated, you must contact your financial intermediary or Aberdeen Funds Shareholder Services at 866-667-9231 before the close of business on August 14, 2020 in order to exchange your shares for those of another series of the Trust. If you have any questions about your individual tax situation, please contact your tax advisor or financial intermediary. If you wish to exchange your shares into another series of the Trust, or would like to request additional copies of the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information for the Trust, please call Aberdeen Funds Shareholder Services at 866-667-9231.
    Non-Fund Direct Traditional IRAs, Roth IRAs, SIMPLE, SEP, or SARSEP IRA and 403(b) Custodial Accounts (“Non-Fund Direct Retirement Accounts”)
    If you are invested in the Fund through a Non-Fund Direct Retirement Account and Aberdeen Funds Shareholder Services does not receive instructions from you or the account trustee or custodian prior to close of business on August 14, 2020, the Fund will send a liquidating distribution to the trustee/custodian for the benefit of your account, which the trustee/custodian will process according to its own policies and procedures.
    401(k), Pension and Profit Sharing Plans and other Tax-qualified Retirement Plans (“Retirement Plans”)
    If you are invested in the Fund through a Retirement Plan, and Aberdeen Funds Shareholder Services does not receive instructions from you or the Retirement Plan administrator or other plan fiduciary prior to close of business on August 14, 2020, the Fund will send a liquidating distribution to the Retirement Plan, which the Retirement Plan will process according to its own policies and procedures.
    The pending liquidation of the Fund may be terminated and/or abandoned at any time before the Liquidation Date by action of the Board of Trustees of the Trust.
    Please retain this Supplement for future reference.
  • When should you Sell?
    I bought the downdraft. After some good gains from the updraft I have lightened up my equity allocation moving the equity sell proceeds to the income side of my portfolio.
    Back in March I was 20/40/40 and moved to a 15/40/45 which grew to about a 12/38/50 as equities had their run. In recently rebalancing, I am now about a 10/45/45. This allocation is due mostly to low yields on cash. On the equity side I am 5% heavy mostly in good dividend equity income funds that provide qualified dividends. On the income side I am 5% heavy split among multi sector income and hybrid income funds. My plan is to let income generated inside my portfolio rebuild my cash position over the coming year.
    I am anticipating, by year end, that my cash allocation will be about 15% should current asset values remain relative to what they currently are.
  • When should you Sell?
    Fidelity data shows nearly one-third of their investors 65 and older sold all of their stock holdings at some point between February and May while just 18% of all investors across their platform sold out of stocks.
    I had a number of discussions with investors who were contemplating selling out of stocks in March. Many we retirees who worried about how an extended downturn could impact their retirement plans.
    I understand why this group is more trigger happy with their portfolio. The U.S. stock market was up 10 out of 11 years heading into 2020. This crisis was looking like it could turn into Great Depression 2.0.
    We’re living in scary times.
    But scary times and panic are never good reasons for selling out of your stocks.
    https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2020/06/when-should-you-sell-your-stocks/
  • Stock-market legend who called 3 financial bubbles says this one is the ‘Real McCoy,’..‘crazy stuff'
    Jeremy Grantham made some big calls correctly in past decades. His track record in the current era of massive Fed interventions has not been so good. He is now making another one of those big calls. Here is an article and a link to a video presentation. I don't see that he laid out a clear case regarding what will cause the markets to turn away from their Pavlovian "buy response" to ever increasing amounts of monetary -- and perhaps now also fiscal -- stimulus. But, it is probably still worth listening to what he has to say.
    ‘My confidence is rising quite rapidly that this is, in fact, becoming the fourth, real McCoy, bubble of my investment career. The great bubbles can go on a long time and inflict a lot of pain but at least I think we know now that we’re in one. And the chutzpah involved in having a bubble at a time of massive economic and financial uncertainty is substantial.’
    https://marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-legend-who-called-3-stock-market-bubbles-says-this-one-is-the-real-mccoy-this-is-crazy-stuff-2020-06-17
  • Where the U.S. retail blooms are and are not. Also, The Fed is addicted to propping up the markets.
    The first article provides a short visual look at how various retail business sectors performed in May. Relatedly, the second article takes a look at the Feds role in the massive and prompt fiscal and monetary policy actions that supported this May's rebound during this first phase of the pandemic. I am left wondering how the virus will bend this short term retail rebound, the economy in general, and the stock market over the next several months. It won't be dull.
    image
    In essence, the Fed has adopted a strategy that works like a one-way ratchet, providing a floor for stock and bond prices but never a ceiling.
    https://reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-retail-graphics/may-flowers-where-the-u-s-retail-blooms-are-and-are-not-idUSKBN23O1HG
    https://washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/17/fed-is-addicted-propping-up-market-whether-it-needs-help-or-not/
  • This year’s stock-market run has an uncanny resemblance to 2009, analyst says, with big upside for s
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/B9CDB964-AFD7-11EA-885A-481D889F3439
    This year’s stock-market run has an uncanny resemblance to 2009, analyst says, with big upside for stocks ahead
    By Andrea Riquier
    Expect stocks to spin their wheels for a while and then rally toward the end of the year, this analyst thinks
    If the topsy-turvy financial markets of 2020 have you scratching your head, you’re not alone. But you may be overthinking it, according to one longtime market watcher.
    2020 is just like 2009,”
  • Dow ends 527 points higher and the stock market notches its 3rd straight gain amid hope of coronavir
    All green lights from here, couple yellow near stops??? Few days ago many pundits predict massive down turns at least another 15-25% DJI reaching March levels?
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-ends-527-points-higher-and-the-stock-market-notches-its-3rd-straight-gain-amid-hope-of-coronavirus-treatment-2020-06-16?mod=markets
    Dow ends 527 points higher and the stock market notches its 3rd straight gain amid hope of coronavirus treatment
    Published: June 16, 2020 at 4:08 p.m. ET
    By Mark DeCambre
    DJIA
    +2.04%
    SPX
    +1.89%
    COMP
    +1.74%
    PCG
    -0.27%
    U.S. stock benchmarks closed out Tuesday trade sharply higher after investors parsed testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on the the economy, reacted to a report of a prospective treatment for COVID-19, and to a report on retail sales that suggested that worst of the damage wrought by coronavirus lockdowns may be over. Retail sales rose 17.7% in May, according to data from the Commerce Department, marking a sharp rebound from a record slump in March and April during the depths of the pandemic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +2.04% closed up 527 points, or 2%, at 26,290, the S&P 500 index SPX, +1.89% gained 1.9% at 3,124, on the back of gains in the energy and health-care sectors, both up more than 2%. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +1.74% closed with a gain of 1.8% at 9,896. All closing levels are on a preliminary basis, and all three benchmarks marked their third straight gain, recovering mightily from a jarring pullback on Thursday. The retail sales got the stock market off to a bullish start and gains deepened after BBC reported that dexamethasone, a cheap and widely available steroid, is showing signs of success in low doses when prescribed to patients who are suffering serious symptoms from the illness derived from the coronavirus. In corporate news, Pacific Gas & Electric PCG, -0.27% pleaded guilty Tuesday to killing 84 people in a 2018 wildfire in Northern California, agreeing to pay a maximum fine of $3.5 million, as well as the cost of the investigation. Shares of the utility closed down 0.3%. Meanwhile, Powell in his Senate testimony reiterated that the road to recovery from the pandemic would likely be a long one and cautioned investors that they shouldn't overreact to surprisingly good economic data like the May retail sales report published earlier Tuesday because "the levels of output and employment remain far below their pre-pandemic levels." Powell will testify in front of a House panel on Wednesday.
  • Trading Sportsbooks for Brokerages. Bored Bettors Wager on Stocks
    "When Russian table tennis or Korean baseball won’t scratch the itch, some are trying their hand at trading equities. It’s enough to move the market, analysts say."
    "Millions of small-time investors have opened trading accounts in recent months, a flood of new buyers unlike anything the market had seen in years, just as lockdown orders halted entire sectors of the economy and sent unemployment soaring. It’s not clear how many of the new arrivals are sports bettors, but some are behaving like aggressive gamblers. There has been a jump in small bets in the stock options market, where wagers on the direction of share prices can produce thrilling scores and gut-wrenching losses. And transactions that make little economic sense, like buying up the nearly valueless shares of bankrupt companies, are off the charts."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/14/business/sports-gamblers-stocks-virus.html
    Zany action in recent days has me convinced. Apparently these guys (and gals) are watching every short term development or coment by an official and placing wagers on which way the indexes will move.
    - Week ago - Payroll numbers better than expected - Powerful up day
    - Thursday - Covid 19 redeveloping in China - Powerful down day
    - Monday - Friday's steep dive continues until Fed Chair Powell reveals Fed is buying Corporate bonds - Market reverses, makes up 700 point drop (Dow) and ends day higher
    - Tuesday - Monday's rally continues after strong overnight futures - some based on reports of a trillion dollar infrastructure plan in the works. Morning's hotter than expected retail sales numbers add fuel to the fire.
    - Later Tuesday - Dow falls about 500 points from day's high, apparently on comments Fed Chair Powell makes to Congress that deficit spending will hurt us longer term. But later recovers (based on whatever else he said)
    Just watching. You'd need to be insane to try to time or outsmart this market. A lot of short term dumb money sloshing around.
  • MAMU: The Mother of All Meltups --- Ed Yardini
    sorry, thought it would open per the bing sequence above
    https://www.ft.com/content/2a6ec6aa-492e-4e7d-85f8-83789a2bc481

    Top US pension fund aims to juice returns via $80bn leverage plan

    Calpers hopes bold move will boost efforts to achieve its 7% return target
    John Plender in London and Peter Smith in Wagga Wagga JUNE 14 2020

    Calpers is to move deeper into private equity and private debt by adopting a bold leverage strategy that the $395bn Californian public sector pension fund believes will help it achieve its ambitious 7 per cent rate of return.
    In a presentation to the Calpers board, Ben Meng, chief investment officer, said the giant fund would take on additional leverage via borrowings and financial instruments such as equity futures. Leverage could be as high as 20 per cent of the value of the fund, or nearly $80bn based on current assets. The aim is to juice up returns to help the scheme, the largest public pension in the US, achieve its growth target.
    The move comes after a 2019 investment strategy review that found Calpers needed greater focus on the excess returns potentially available from illiquid assets compared with public equity and debt. Under Calpers’ previous asset allocation strategy it was estimated to have a less than 40 per cent probability of achieving its 7 per cent return target over the next decade.
    Calpers’ assets represent just 71 per cent of what it needs to pay future benefits to the 1.9m police officers, firefighters and other public workers who are members of the scheme.
    The US stock market slide this year has increased the long-term structural problems across the entire US public pension system, particularly for the weakest plans that have ballooning unfunded liabilities. The weak funded position of these funds poses a huge long-term risk for millions of US employees and retired workers.
    Mr Meng hopes Calpers’ deeper push into illiquid assets over the next three years will help it exploit its structural strengths. Its perpetual nature allows it to make longer-term investments, while its size gives it access to top managers in private equity markets where performance is widely dispersed.
    “Given the current low-yield and low-growth environment, there are only a few asset classes with a long-term expected return clearing the 7 per cent hurdle. Private assets clearly stand out,” Mr Meng said. “Leverage will increase the volatility of returns but Calpers’ long-term horizon should enable us to tolerate this.”
    He added that leverage would not “be tied to any specific strategy, asset, fund or deal”.
    Mr Meng has terminated relationships with more than 30 external fund managers since 2019, redeploying $64bn of capital with savings of more than $115m in annual fees. Holdings of global equities are now 95 per cent internally managed, while 80 per cent of the total fund is managed in-house. It invests in more than 10,000 public companies.
    Mr Meng has faced criticism this year for abandoning a hedging strategy for tail risk, the risk of low probability but highly costly events, before the market crash in March.
    He countered that Calpers had developed ways of raising cash at short notice to meet unexpected demands on the fund, an approach that was less expensive than high-cost hedging strategies.
    Calpers’ portfolio has also been de-risked by increasing its holdings in longer-dated US Treasuries and switching more assets from capitalisation-related equity indices to factor-weighted equities. These use indices that focus on investment styles such as price momentum or volatility.
    According to Mr Meng this strategy protected the fund from losses of $11bn in the pandemic-induced market slide, which far outweighed the $1bn profit forgone on tail risk hedging. He said that unlike in the financial crisis of 2008 Calpers was not forced to sell assets into a depressed market in March. “Too little liquidity can be deadly but too much is costly,” he said.
  • O’Shaughnessy Small Cap Value Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027596/000089418920004600/oshaughnessy497eliquidatio.htm
    497 1 oshaughnessy497eliquidatio.htm O'SHAUGHNESSY 497E SUPP
    O'Shaughnessy Small Cap Value Fund
    Class I: OFSIX
    Supplement dated June 15, 2020 to
    Prospectus dated November 28, 2019
    O’Shaughnessy Asset Management, LLC, the Advisor to the O’Shaughnessy Small Cap Value Fund (the “Fund”), has recommended, and the Board of Trustees of Advisors Series Trust has approved, the liquidation and termination of the Fund. This decision was made due to the unfavorable economies of operating a small fund with no realistic prospect for future growth.
    The liquidation is expected to occur after the close of business on July 27, 2020. Pending liquidation of the Fund, investors will continue to be able to reinvest dividends received in the Fund.
    Effective June 16, 2020, the Fund will no longer accept purchases of new shares. In addition, the Fund’s Advisor will no longer be actively investing the Fund’s assets in accordance with the Fund’s investment objective and policies and the Fund’s assets will be converted into cash and cash equivalents. As a result, as of June 16, 2020, the Fund will no longer be pursuing its stated investment objective. Shareholders of the Fund may redeem their investments as described in the Fund’s Prospectus. Accounts not redeemed by July 27, 2020 will automatically be closed and liquidating distributions, less any required tax withholdings, will be sent to the address of record.
    If you hold your shares in an IRA account directly with U.S. Bank N.A. you have 60 days from the date you receive your proceeds to reinvest your proceeds into another IRA account and maintain their tax-deferred status. You must notify the Fund or your financial advisor prior to July 22, 2020 of your intent to reinvest your IRA account to avoid withholding deductions from your proceeds.
    Please contact the Fund at 1-877-291-7827 or your financial advisor if you have questions or need assistance.
    Please retain this Supplement with the Prospectus.
  • Investing for Income in Today's Environment
    Re: Investing for Income in Today's Environment ...
    Two thoughts:
    (1) Like Bartleby, the obstinate law clerk, in Melville's Bartleby, the Scrivener ... "I'd prefer not to."
    (2) A contrary opinion might be "Get 'em while they last." - as you now have some serious bond buying competition.
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/federal-reserve-begins-individual-corporate-bond-purchases-secondary-market-relief-2020-6-1029309910
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    @FD100
    you may have told us before but how do you avoid redemption fees on some of these funds?
    Congratulations on establishing your system that seems to work almost all the time. How much work does it take to evaluate incoming data daily or hourly and trade so frequently? Sounds close to a real job to me
    I do pay commissions sometimes but I try to buy Instit shares because I have an agreement to buy them at Schwab with fees waived. Selling is always free because Instit shares don't have short term fees. Several funds have their own short term fees and why I don't buy them. Even if I pay fees they are negligible when I make thousands.
    It takes me just minutes every week for my portfolio because I have all the lists I need to see momentum and looking at my preferred pre-selected funds.
    Example: if I want to buy HY Munis the 4 funds (NHMAX,ORNAX,OPTAX,GWMEX) are my top choices and what I have been using but I always take another look at other funds.
    Investing has been my passion for years.
    I do spend more if I post something that needs research, analysis and more.
    ===========
    (link) "Stocks erased earlier losses and rose Monday, after the Federal Reserve said it would begin purchasing individual corporate bonds as part of its emerging lending program to inject liquidity into the virus-stricken economy.
    Earlier in the session, the Dow was off as many as 762 points, or 3%, as investor jitters over rising coronavirus cases in key parts of the country stirred up an extension of last week’s pullback in equities."
    ============
    My main investments are bond OEFs, will see in the next several days where markets are going
  • Japan plunges more than 3%, with stocks in Asia dropping as virus fears resurface
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/15/asia-markets-coronavirus-china-economy-currencies-in-focus.html
    Japan plunges more than 3%, with stocks in Asia dropping as virus fears resurface
    Stocks in Asia fell on Monday, with the Nikkei 225 in Japan dropping more than 3% while South Korea's Kospi plunged 4.76%.
    The moves regionally came as as investors weighed the potential impact of recent spikes in coronavirus cases.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Call it confirmation bias, but I generally agree with Clements. At least a couple of years ago I wondered (and posted) whether low rates coupled with interest rate risk rendered the value of bonds over cash dubious. I've written favorably about Buffett's propsed allocation, 10% short term (effectively cash), 90% equities. Though I disagreed with his singleminded focus on the S&P 500. This cash/equity approach is also essentially Evensky's 1985 two bucket strategy.
    Figuring on a 4% withdrawal rate, the 10% cash could buffer a bear market taking 2.5 years to recover. Clements suggests 25% cash, or around a 6 year buffer. I might split the difference and put half of that 25% in cash, half in vanilla bonds, figuring that the bonds will do better even with modestly rising interest rates, if one waits 3 years or more.
    As Clements noted, the expectation value of SS is greater if one delays taking benefits. This is especially true if one is focused on one's own lifetime and not on legacies. If one has a financial need for monthly checks before age 70, one can fill the gap with a temporary life annuity.
    Which brings us to annuities. Dr. Wade Pfau says much the same thing as Clements - that the lower the current interest rates, the bigger the bargain annuities are, thanks to mortality credits. "Essentially, while the cost of funding retirement with an annuity increases as interest rates decline, the cost of funding retirement in other ways increases even faster than for the annuity. Therefore, the annuity becomes a better relative deal."
    Speaking of Dr. Pfau, while he and Michael Kitces suggested seven years ago that a rising glidepath might provide a slightly higher probability of success (not running out of money over 30 years), subsequent research by Dr. David M. Blanchett showed that a traditional declining glidepath would work better in an environment with low interest rates and highly valued stocks. As it was in 2015 when he wrote his paper, and as it is now.
    They had an ongoing exchange about this. Here's one part:
    I re-ran the analysis that Michael and I did in our initial article, but I switched to the new capital market assumptions I use which allow for increasing bond yields over time while keeping a fixed average equity premium over bonds. ... It does indeed seem that retiring at times with particularly low bond yields, which can be expected to increase over time, may not favor rising equity glidepaths during retirement. It essentially causes the retiree to lock in low bond returns and even capital losses on a bond fund as bond yields gradually increase (on average) over time.
    This is not to say that rising equity glidepaths are never a good idea. ... If interest rates were at a higher initial starting point, I’m guessing that rising glidepaths would look much better in his analysis.
  • Reviewing Funds YTD - with comments
    Hi @Derf, Thank you for your question. In responding to it ... I can review my portfolio (performance wise) through M*'s portfolio manager on a daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, year to date, one year, three year, five year and ten year periods. In addition, some of the things tracked are the dividend yield, valuation, % weight of portfolio, daily change, unrealized gains, duration, maturity, expense ratio, & below 52 week high, plus some other things one of them being style box assignment.