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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Key Takeaways From PIMCO’s Cyclical Outlook: From Hurting to Healing
    This blog post discusses what Pimco observed when they gazed into their crystal ball:
    We are seeing the first-ever recession by government decree – a necessary, temporary, partial shutdown of the economy aimed at preventing an even larger humanitarian crisis. What is also different this time is the unprecedented speed and size of the monetary and fiscal response, as policymakers and monetary authorities try to prevent a recession turning into a lasting depression.
    image
    We believe this crisis is likely to leave three long-term scars:
    Globalization may be dialed back
    More private and public debt
    Shift in household saving behavior
    We believe a caution-first approach is warranted in an effort to protect against permanent capital impairment.
  • Hedging Risk: How to Pandemic- Proof Globalization
    I wanted to revisit a conversation on globalization and start a new thread on this "new normal".
    I found this article regarding globalization regarding this present health threat (Covid-19).
    As airports, factories, and shops slow down or shut down, the novel coronavirus pandemic is testing the international supply chains that define the current era of globalization. And the multi-factory and often multi-country manufacturing processes used by companies around the world are proving more fragile than anticipated. If the virus and the economic wreckage it is causing aren’t contained soon, blueberries and avocados won’t be the only things missing from market shelves across the still chilly Midwest and Northeast United States. Cars, clothes, electronics, and basic medicines will run short as far-off factories disconnect.
    how-pandemic-proof-globalization
    If you own equities you're probably a global investor. This article mentions that S&P 500 companies derive about 70% of the revenues from the US, the rest outside of the US.
    What I wonder is how dependent are these S&P 500 companies on the rest of the world with regard to the production of these products/services. How do we maintain supply lines across borders?
    how-global-is-s-and-p-500
    As for cars, here are a couple of examples of where parts are sourced for a single integrated product like a car.:
    a-graphic-representation-of-whats-really-made-in-america
    2019-american-made-index-whats-the-most-american-car

    A closer look at individual S&P 500 companies and why they maybe more Multinational than American:
    why-us-companies-arent-so-american-anymore
    As we get back to our "New - New Normal" I wonder how investment risk will be described and hedged when it come to these interconnected markets. What hedging strategies do investors need in their portfolio to hedge risk.
    Comments welcome.
  • MARKETS Stock market live Monday: Dow rises 1,600, up 20% from low, Yellen’s shocking forecast
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/stock-market-live-updates-dow-futures-up-750-nasdaq-futures-up-4percent-bottom-in.html
    /Stock market live Monday: Dow rises 1,600, up 20% from low, Yellen’s shocking forecast
    Stock market live Monday: Dow rises 1,600, up 20% from low, Yellen’s shocking forecast
    Stocks jumped as Wall Street bounced back from a steep market sell-off—Three experts on state of the markets
    Stocks ripped higher to start the holiday-shortened week as a combination of positive headlines eased investor angst after last week’s abysmal March jobs numbers. Though the White House said this week’s COVID-19 deaths could be substantial, the administration struck a more optimistic tone at its press conference on Sunday. Here’s what happened:
    4:30 pm: Rally by the numbers
    Dow closed up 1,627.46 points or 7.73%, at 22,679.99, posting its third biggest point gain ever
    Year to date: Dow is down 20.53%, on pace for its worst year since 2008 when the Dow lost 33.64%
    From Record: Dow is 23.30% below its intraday all-time high of 29,568.57 from Feb 12
    S&P 500 closed up 175.03 points, or 7.03%, at 2,663.68, for its best day since Mar 24th when the S&P gained 9.38%
    Year to date: S&P is down 17.55%, on pace for its worst year since 2008 when the S&P lost 38.49%
    From Record: S&P is 21.51% below its intraday all-time high of 3,393.52 from Feb 19/
    Bottom 18500 few wks back*?
    Maybe sideways for awhile until more stability w covid19?
  • Something Positive That Is Showing Green ...
    @MikeW. I hold CTFAX in my hybrid income sleeve as it kicks off capital gains coming from its investment activity. Plus, it pays a dividend. Check it's disbursement activity on its mutual fund site. It is a good fund to own in volatile markets. Generally, it holds more bonds than equities. But, in stock market pullbacks it loads equities. And, as the market recovers it trims equities and loads bonds. It went in this downdraft from an equity allocation of 15% and increased it to 70% towards the bottom on March 23rd. It employes a 31 day trading rule so it will be around April 24th before it begins to sell down equities should current price levels hold and/or increase and move higher.
  • Has anyone considered long/short or market neutral given where we are today?
    Hi @Bitzer. No worries on a hard time. I'm looking for my thoughts to be challenged :) and I appreciate all feedback. But what you said is exactly my point for possibly picking up a L/S fund now. "BTAL clobbered VTI in 2018, 2020". My crystal ball sees more downside in 2020 and maybe beyond, and that ball works 50% of the time!
    I'm not looking for a long term holding here. I've always been an advocate against these funds long term (balanced funds will always win is my motto). I'm looking for something that holds up in a recession environment better that straight equities - VTI. I mentioned above, I think bonds are risky and corporate bonds may become even more so. Gold ETFs, "paper" as described by some, may also have more risk than I appreciated and I don't need another IOFAX surprise.
    I don't plan to sell any equity funds. Probably to late for that. Just looking for diversification with possibly less risk than bonds and gold ETFs - during this upcoming recession.
  • Something Positive That Is Showing Green ...
    With the S&P 500 coming off of the 2200 range towards the last part of March the trend is up. Now at the 2580 range as I write! I would not be surprised to see a near term upside to 2700 range. Perhaps, even 2800.
    With a 5% earnings yield 2200 = $110 in earnings ... and, at 2800 = $140.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/05/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
  • Has anyone considered long/short or market neutral given where we are today?
    @MikeM I'm not trying to give you a hard time here, just looking to join the fun on a boring Sunday evening
    Re: BTAL I took another look at BTAL against my favorite benchmark, VTI. Ok, I know VTI is the wrong benchmark, but that (or a target date fund) is where my money goes without a better (for me) idea.
    Taking a look at BTAL for each calendar year of it's existence (ok, I know that's the wrong comparison tool), I see that VTI had greater returns, except for 2018 and 2020 (thus far) when BTAL clobbered VTI.
    It looks like BTAL only came to life in the past 6 weeks or so. I'm looking to invest some "fun money" but I think I can do better than BTAL.
    Does anyone understand how that fund works?
  • Palm Valley Capital Fund (PVCMX)
    He previously ran cash-heavy portfolios with an Aston River Road fund ARIVX and at Intrepid Capital.
    'Nuff said in my opinion. ARIVX didn't work. Hopefully he puts that money to work wisely. But isn't everything value now? Maybe more value a month from now?
  • "Generational event"
    This opinion piece is worth reading in its entirety. He is a good writer. Here are a few highlights from my second reading....
    "Where to from here?" is a question no one can currently answer.
    The oil story isn't merely a sideshow to the pandemic. The price war (narrowly construed) is tangential, but the potential for the collapse in prices (which fell the most in history during the first quarter) to make an already bad economic situation worse, is real indeed.
    ....This speaks to the irony of the Fed's multi-pronged corporate bond buying program announced late last month alongside a raft of additional measures. We are in no position to allow misallocated capital to be "purged."....In short, all of this has to be propped up, bailed out and otherwise inoculated. If it's not, the domino effect would be catastrophic, and although the cavalier among you may be inclined to bravely parrot the "let it all burn" line, I doubt you really want that.
    Although there are, of course, limits to how much spending can be authorized without offsets, those limits are dictated by inflation. Quite obviously, inflation isn't something we need concern ourselves with in an environment characterized by the single largest demand shock of the past century.
    In short, the mighty US services sector just disappeared in the space of four weeks. It's gone. That doesn't mean it's not coming back, but for the duration of the lockdown, it basically doesn't exist.
    ... there is absolutely no way to know what earnings are going to look like for the second and third quarters. I cannot remember (or find anyone who can remember) a time when there's been less visibility into the outlook for all corporate profits, not just one or two troubled sectors.....Show me someone who thinks they can price equities in this environment and I'll show you a liar. It's just that simple.
    The Fed isn’t going to cancel all of the various liquidity facilities and asset purchase programs put into place over the past four weeks if the spread of the virus slows. That bid (which is now unlimited in scope) will be in the market for the foreseeable future, and now it includes spread products.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4336021-bad-blood
  • Old-Joe or anyone, Home page acting differently
    Mark. Scroll down this page for OS/Safari updates. The version list will change from a pink color to a light green shade (the updates). An update occurred on March 24, 2020(High Sierra/Safari); which is close to the time frame you noticed a change at MFO. I can't travel past this point to offer any assistance as to what may have changed in Safari.
    The only thought that I have is whether setting a new "favorite link" (don't know what "favorite" is named in Apple) makes a difference; and you may have already tried this.
    ADD: This problem is understandably a pain in the arse for viewing threads/posts here. I hope you find a resolution, and there must be many more Apple users here with the same experience.
    Catch
  • Stay Calm Amid Bond Market Chaos
    https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T052-C003-S002-stay-calm-amid-bond-market-chaos.html
    /Stay Calm Amid Bond Market Chaos
    The risk is that you’ll lock your money in a low-yield prison just in time for normalcy to return to the financial markets.
    I won’t mince words: “Lower for longer,” my overriding view of fixed-income yields, is trending toward “lowest imaginable.” Expect the imminent return of zero, or near-zero, rates on money market funds, three- and six-month CDs, and bank deposits. Bonds with 4% and 5% coupons will be called in bunches by their issuers. Mortgage refis will cut the payouts from Ginnie Mae funds. More dividend erosion is in store for short- and intermediate-term bond funds./
    Yields for vehicles mentioned in article so low
    Maybe these are reasons investors may take higher risks to buy stocks....
    Tread very carefully/don't catch falling knife especially with capital preservation portfolio
  • Palm Valley Capital Fund (PVCMX)
    Eric Cinnamond runs this fund. He previously ran cash-heavy portfolios with an Aston River Road fund ARIVX and at Intrepid Capital.
  • Dodge and Cox
    Based on Fidelity's fund screening tools, DODBX 3 year Sharpe ratio is .32 as of 2/29/2020, which was one of the lowest among the balanced funds I reviewed. VWELX PRWCX JABAX RPBAX BALFX MAPOX FOBAX all outperformed DODBX. OAKBX and FPACX were 2 funds that underperformed DODBX. Fidelity funds used 3/31/2020 to calculate their data so they were excluded.
  • Bullions shortage
    https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-02/Bullion-shortage-panic-what-to-do.html
    Many physical gold bugs holders maybe laughing and selling now at good prices now.
  • Dodge and Cox
    VTV is not SP500 value, right? That would be VOOV.
    3/4 as many stocks.
    And if you write and edit fund prospectuses, you recognize that the D&C language nuance / emphasis are subtly more different from than similar to the TRP language.
    My main point, for years now, that many put D&C on a pedestal because their team management style, LT investing history, lower rates which I know all about but the numbers don't back it up and then I hear the excuses.
    Any fund can make up a more complicated strategy and claim...well, it's not really the same so you can't compare it.
    LC US stocks is the main category investors use and if a fund can't perform better for 1-3-5-10-15 years than the SP500 + its volatility is higher than the SP500 there are no buts or ifs. We are talking short-term + long-term
    See 15 years of risk/reward(link).
    As of 3/31/2020
    15 years aver annual performance...VFIAX=7.39...DODGX 5.45%
    15 years SD=volatility......................VFIAX=14.3...DODGX 17.1
    Below is the more current results as of 04/03/2020
    image
  • Dodge and Cox
    Nuance? GARP and value investing are more than subtly different.
    M* offers FCNTX and ANEFX as prominent examples of GARP funds. Investopedia says that "GARP investing was popularized by legendary Fidelity manager Peter Lynch." That would be the manager of the legendary "value" fund Magellan (FMAGX).
    I guess what really matters is what TRP says about PRWCX's actual portfolio. In its latest (June 2019) semiannual report, TRP writes:
    Over the long term, we are extremely confident in the quality of companies in which we have chosen to invest. These are mostly GARP (growth at a reasonable price) stocks with excellent management teams that use capital allocation to create sustainable long-term value for shareholders.
  • Dodge and Cox
    Dodge & Cox was founded in 1930. The company has introduced only six mutual funds since then. The firm's analysts and managers tend to stay at the company for a very long time. Dodge & Cox funds are team-managed and they have below-average expense ratios. There is a lot to admire about the firm's philosophy and operations. As others have mentioned, value has generally been out of favor for many years. I agree with Mark that it is inappropriate to compare Dodge & Cox funds to growth funds from other shops.
    1) Is the SP500 a growth fund?
    2) DODGX hold Google and MSFT in their top 10, are these not growth?
    3) How can you explain DODGX falling behind VTV(value ETF) for 1-3-5-10-15 years. But wait, VTV also have lower volatility(=SD) and better Sharpe. See 16 years results (link)
    4) VOO (SP500) expense = 0.03% and VTV = 0.04% are definitely cheaper than DODGX = 0.52%
  • Dodge and Cox
    More observations:
    1. For 5 years DODFX is rated at 75-89 in its category.
    DODGX lags the SP500 for 1-3-5-10-15 years which is a blended index not growth or value. But Wait...DODGX also lags VTV(value ETF) for 1-3-5-10-15 years
    2. If you read DODGX strategy (link)
    Stocks — The Fund typically invests in companies that, in Dodge & Cox’s opinion, appear to be temporarily undervalued by the stock market but have a favorable outlook for long-term growth.
    It's similar to PRWCX
    "invests primarily in the common stocks of established U.S companies believed to have above-average potential for capital growth."
    The value approach carries a risk that the market will not recognize a security’s intrinsic value for a long time or that a stock judged to be undervalued may actually be appropriately priced because of the fund’s fixed-income holdings or cash position, it may not keep pace in a rapidly rising market.
    PRWCX managers are excellent while D&C are not and the rest are just excuses.
  • "Did you blink?" D.Snowball's April First newsletter-commentary.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2020/04/april-1-2020/#more-14103
    Excellent read imho regarding current market conditions, what to possibly expect in the near future, several funds/managers' opinion.
    Get your cash/bucket list ready / and several ideas to help out local communities/others
    Enjoy
  • Coronavirus Fiscal Fallout on U.S. Muni Issuers Worries Investors
    https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/03/us/03reuters-health-coronavirus-municipals.html
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN21L37G
    /Coronavirus Fiscal Fallout on U.S. Muni Issuers Worries Investors
    By Reuters
    April 3, 2020
    CHICAGO — Investors in the U.S. municipal bond market are growing increasingly worried over the ability of states, cities and other debt issuers to weather the financial fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus./
    Article discusses covid19 nationalized shut down may cause major downturns and possible credit crunch due to limited/frozen states and local authorities lack of incomes. Muni bonds defaulting risks maybe much higher in the near future.
    I think potus/congress/house maybe working to generate more bonds /govt bailouts to alleviate these stress in the near future.
    More BAB anyone?