As of market close April 9th, according to the metrics of Old_Skeet's stock market barometer, the S&P 500 Index is now at fair value with a reading of 153. This is in the midpoint range of the barometer's scale. This past week, the short volume average increased, a good bit, from 55% to 68% of the total volume for SPY. It seems, the shorts are betting against this rally. The VIX (which is a measure of volatility) fell and went from a reading of 45 to 41. This is good. During the shortened week the stock Index's valuation gained ground moving from a reading of 2489 to 2790 for a gain of 12.1%; but has a decline of 17.6% off it's 52 week high. However, it up 21% off its 52 week closing low of 2305. I'm thinking that we have seen most of the nearterm gains stocks have to offer and we move mostly sideways (with some upside) but within a trading range form here through summer. Let's hope these gains stick and the shorts get squeezed. The three best performing sectors this week were real estate, materials, and, financials.
From a yield perspective, I'm finding that the US10YrT is now listed at 0.73% while at the beginning of the year it was listed at 1.92%. With the recent stock market swoon the S&P 500 Index is currently listed with a dividend yield of 2.14% while at the beginning of the year it was listed at 1.82%. As you can see there is a yield advantage for the stock Index over the US Ten Year Treasury. With this yield advantage, for stocks, during the month of March I favored my domestic equity income funds over my fixed income funds for new money; and, I expaned this sleeve from four to six funds. My domestic equity income sleeve gained +8.7% for the week while my global equity income sleeve gained 7.4%.
Since, I now have more than a full allocation to equities, at 48%, I've now started to buy on the income side of my portfolio. Since, cash will likely pay very little, in the form of yield, I have changed my asset allocation. My new asset allocation is 10% cash, 45% income and 45% equity. This is to take advange of the nearterm rebound that bonds are expected to receive now that the Fed's have begun to buy bonds and just within the past few days they started to purchase in the high yield sector. My fixed income sleeve gained +2.8% for the week while my hybrid income sleeve gained +6.3%. Plus, bonds will pay more in the form of yield over my money market funds which gained +0.01% for the week. This equates to about a one half of one percent yield which is hardley enough to cover purchase loss due to inflation.
My three best performing funds for the week were PMDAX +14.9% ... FRINX +12.8% ... and, LPEFX +11.7%.
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
Take care ... be safe ... and, I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
Please note: The next barometer report will be made at the end of the month unless there is a barometer reading change from fair value.

I like Hulbert's researches usually (@LB, do you read?)
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-will-revisit-their-coronavirus-crash-low-and-heres-when-to-expect-it-2020-04-09

Here is a little more detail on the types of high yield bonds and about other financial products the Fed will now be buying:

In a move that surprised some investors, the central bank will also expand its bond-buying program to include debt that was investment-grade rated as of March 22 but was later downgraded to no lower than BB-, or three levels into high yield. It’ll also buy exchange-traded funds, the preponderance of which will track investment-grade debt along with some that track speculative-grade debt. Together, the programs will support as much as $850 billion in credit.
.....as well as fund the purchases of some types of......collateralized loan obligations and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

https://washingtonpost.com/business/on-small-business/fed-to-buy-junk-bonds-and-lend-to-states-in-fresh-virus-support/2020/04/09/1baf9420-7a60-11ea-a311-adb1344719a9_story.html

Hi guys, with the Fed's now having a green light to buy most capital type assets ... The stock market rally looks to continue. Now watch high yield ... Next stop stocks?

From what little I can find, it seems that FXAIX overall had the lower ER all these years. I look forward to seeing the ER numbers for "all these years".

It would be very time consuming to find ER for previous years but from memory, Fidelity lowered ER for their index funds years ago to compete with VG.
From M*, for 5 years average annual as of (04/08/2020)...FXAIX=7.9%...VFIAX=7.88...VOO=7.86
It's a surprise that VOO with lower ER had lower performance than VFIAX

Another maybe bullish sign... This article from the NYT says it's institutional investors (aka smart money) driving this one while Mom and Pop investors (like me) wait it out.

I have also read that some of the buying has been driven by funds with a mandate to own the constituents of various indexes.
OTOH. From your link:

Cole Smead, a portfolio manager at the Smead Value Fund, has been snapping up bargains in beaten-up parts of the market, like oil and energy producers, homebuilders and shopping-mall companies, that are closely tied to short-term swings in the economy.

I won't be adding Smead Value to my shopping list. I regularly drive by one of the largest ghost town malls in the country.

Goldman Sachs economists, for example, expect the gross domestic product to contract at an astounding 34 percent annual rate in the second quarter, with unemployment reaching roughly 15 percent.

I look at numbers like that on top of the burden of corporate leverage, and I wonder what could happen if their debt is down graded.

And don’t underestimate the fear of missing out. As shares rise, professional money managers feel pressure to buy stocks to protect their reputations.
“If you wait until the coast is clear, you will have missed a huge part of the gains,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, a trading and asset management firm. “And professional investors can’t afford to do that.”

That doesn't sound like the sort of discipline Old_Skeet describes as his process.
Thanks for the link.

In announcing what may prove its most groundbreaking step in the crisis fight, Fed chair Jerome Powell said the Fed’s role had now broadened beyond its usual focus in keeping markets “liquid” and functioning, to helping the United States get the economic and financial space it needs to fix a dire health emergency.

https://reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-fed-mainstreet/fed-rolls-out-2-3-trillion-to-backstop-main-street-local-governments-during-crisis-idUSKCN21R1WY

The Federal Reserve said it would buy some junk bonds in a package of announcements that could pump $2.3 trillion into the economy

https://nytimes.com/2020/04/09/business/economy/fed-to-buy-municipal-some-riskier-debt-as-part-of-expansive-programs.html

Another maybe bullish sign... This article from the NYT says it's institutional investors (aka smart money) driving this one while Mom and Pop investors (like me) wait it out.

Concerns are being raised as QE Infinity begins to be implemented:

By pushing the Federal Reserve into corners of financial markets it has mostly shunned in its 106-year history, Chairman Jerome Powell is running into some thorny questions.
Like, for instance, how to maintain independence from the U.S. Treasury when the economic-support package Congress passed says they should work together? Or whether the same guidelines for companies receiving federal aid, which range from compensation limits to off-shoring restrictions, apply to the Fed if it gets more money from Treasury? And how about which companies -- and perhaps eventually, municipalities and states -- are invited to borrow and at what cost?
The Fed’s steps into credit allocation are tantamount to “a complete redesign of central banking on the fly.”
The CARES Act “forces the Fed into this almost intimate relationship with Treasury,” said Mark Spindel, co-author of a book about the relationship with Congress. “This is fiscal policy, picking winners and losers.”

https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-09/powell-pushed-to-edge-of-fed-s-boundaries-in-fight-for-economy

Foomow up articles
Bonds funds with biggest net outflow ytd
https://www.financial-planning.com/list/coronavirus-lands-corporate-credit-atop-bond-fund-outflows-ranking-in-2020
https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/bond-funds-do-job-coronavirus-stock-market-crash/
With coronavirus uncertainties, corp bond etf has poorly performed in recent months. Many are heading toward exisiting doors/ running toward US-T.
The FEDS however recently backed these vehicles and bought huge junks/ corp bonds. Yields in junks much higher. Think investors maybe having second thoughts now before existing. 3rd/4th quarters may bring much better news and returns if economy recovery maybe taking shape

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-04-07/Gold-is-undervalued-prices-to-hit-5-000-in-medium-term-says-economist.html
/Gold is cheap; prices to hit $5,000 in medium-term, says economist
Kitco News) - Gold prices could climb to $5,000 in a few years, this according to John Butler, author of "The Golden Revolution."/
Not sure if cheap or not in medium term, could be pure speculation. We are thinking increase our Commodities to ?! 4-5% in portfolio with GLD and VDE

It was a bad month. The pandemic's economic impact is reminiscent of the financial crisis, only transpiring much faster. The world was unprepared. Hearing about "CV-19" at first seemed remote and contained, like the term "sub-prime mortgages." Then, all at once, it was everywhere and raging.
Just posted Damage Report.

Yes Sirs!.. up +3s% today. hope finish strong/ or we may end up flat again like yesterday
Just wait until jobs reports/unemployment/earning outings next few weeks, we maybe having another 3-9% down days
In a blink of an eye, many will start writing next wk recession maybe ceasing and perhaps new bull market starting
'No One Wants to Call Canada’s 21% Stock Surge a Bull Market
S&P/TSX Composite has rallied at the fastest pace on record
Economic pain is just getting started as shutdowns take a toll
As quickly as the Canadian stock market fell into a bear market, it has even more rapidly surged 21% from its bottom. Yet, few are willing to call the rally by its technical definition -- a bull market.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-06/no-one-wants-to-call-canada-s-21-stock-surge-a-bull-market'
[same maybe said of Oil/EEM or US market]

Hi @MikeM
You noted:

I am eliminating bonds from my self managed portfolio as much as I can

Obviously, I don't know what type of bond funds you have already or will eliminate. I can only offer this, as we all "see" the markets from our own knowledge and perspective.
Note: The following view/comparison does not include either narrow focused or junk bond funds; with the exception being AAA narrow focused bond funds/etf's.
SO. I had 2 phone calls from friends, about a month ago, regarding their bond funds. They're both conservative investors and don't fiddle with their holdings often and hold about an even mix of equity (SP500 type) and bonds (active managed total return bond funds). They were concerned that their bond funds had become negative for returns. This was the short period when credit markets became stuck. As we know now and what could be assumed, is that the FED moved in to unwind the log jam.
The had fully expected that these would show positive returns when the equity market was crashing. Generally speaking, this would be normal expectation; except a short period in bondland was different. However, I did express that indeed their bond funds were supportive in their portfolio, although showing a small negative return at the time.
I provided the following information (now updated through April 7) using $SPX and FTBFX (a fairly typical total return bond fund).
The $SPX and FTBFX start at Jan. 2018, as this period found 4 periods of equity "fits"; being, Feb. 8, Mar. 21, Oct. 29 and the big melt of Dec. 24, 2018.
This is the total return data from Jan. 2018 through April 7, 2020 and two other periods:
--- Jan. 2018 - April 7, 2020
$SPX = - 1.4%
FTBX = + 9.9%
--- 1 year, April 7, 2019 - April 7, 2020
$SPX = - 8.1%
FTBFX = + 6.2%
--- March 19, 2020.....this date, being a period + or - a few days of when bonds, including AAA where behaving badly; and when I received the phone calls. The following is the YTD returns as of March 19.
$SPX = - 25.5%
FTBFX = - 5.4%
The conversation expressed that while the bonds were not + YTD; the bond fund did indeed function properly, in regards to the loss comparison with $SPX.
The above amounts to how one views an outcome and what are or were the reasons for arriving at a given monetary place.
As for today and with many U.S. bond areas; there is not likely a prior period or a future period when more support from the FED is taking place.
The support crutches, for many bond areas, are in place, IMHO.
Be well.
Catch

Your contrib is so valuable, but are you really so insecure you have to impugn ('obsess') anyone who offers even mild corrections or challenges ?
Anyway, let me add that FXAIX does not outperform either Vanguard SP500 product if you go back to their spring 1988 origin, only more recently.

Nothing to do with insecurity, trying to be accurate. FXAIX didn't perform better because it didn't have a lower ER all these years. The main difference between me and others is that I supply numbers and not just narrative ;-)
As of (04/07/2020) FXAIX did better than VFIAX for 3 + 5 years by only 0.02% annually.

“This relatively rare condition of intense stock market fear, combined with a generally calm bond market, has proved to be a powerful combination for ensuing stock market returns,” Paulsen wrote in a note Tuesday.
When the VIX is above the 80th percentile and MOVE is below the 50th percentile, the average annualized S&P 500 price performance has been “remarkable -- at nearly +21% compared to only a little more than +7% the rest of the time,” he said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-08/bond-stock-volatility-gap-is-bullish-equity-signal-for-leuthold
In checking the stock futures, about an hour before the markets open, this morning, it looks like the market is set to build on Monday's gains.
The futures ... https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
Old_Skeet has been a buyer of equites during this downdraft believing that program trading had the markets oversold. It is now nice to see the stock market rebounding since ... as the saying goes ... I caught some falling knives. I'm thinking ... as the 500 Index begins to approach the 2700 to 2800 range things will slow and we will trade off of TTM earnings projected by S&P to be in the $130's. This could take us sideways and in a trading range through summer. Hopefully, though, when fall comes forward earnings will start looking better (possible in the 150's to 160's) and this will set stocks up for a nice fall stock market rally.
Anyway ... this is how I see it.
Take care ... be safe ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
I am, Old_Skeet
@mcmarasco ... Matt you asked for a signal. Jim Paulsen is one I have followed for years. I have found that his thinking has been pretty much on spot. Hope this helps you sort things out. Anyway, his comments confirmed my thinking. By the way ... my fixed income sleeve took a beating much more than I thought it would. With bond valuations being down I have now begun to buy in the fixed income area of my portfolio.

I think you got the mandate wrong there. D&C is not required to beat the S&P 500. They are acting to select value stocks which they deem safer and worthy of their clients money. It's obvious to me that many investors do, judging by the AUM. For many of them it's not just all about who has the biggest pile of money at the end of the day. Not everyone can make trades after the fact.

See 15 years of risk/reward(link).
As of 3/31/2020
15 years aver annual performance...VFIAX=7.39...DODGX 5.45%
15 years SD=volatility......................VFIAX=14.3...DODGX 17.1
The SP500 made close to 2% more performance annually. If you invested $100K in each(VFIAX vs DODGX) 15 years ago, you would have now $293.2K in VFIAX but only $223K in DODGX
But DODGX had almost 20% more SD=volatility.
This means the SP500 was a better risk/reward fund than DODGX. Unless you disregard the numbers above, how can you explain "safer"?
BTW, for 10 years (link), the numbers for DODGX get even worse. VFIAX had 2.33%(11.04 vs 8.7%) better annual performance (instead of close to 2% for 15 years) + SD is still worse(higher) for DODGX by over 20%
To the question of size? "You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time." The SP500 + US Tot Index (VTI) are so much bigger than DODGX but wait, most of the saved money is thru 401K, employers now must in most cases use indexes, especially for US LC and/or very cheap funds such as Target funds (mainly based on indexes) because it is very difficult to defend fiduciary duty.
and we already discussed that VFIAX expense ratio is so much cheaper too at 0.04% but VOO=0.03% while DODFX = 0.52%
Finally, nobody can stop you investing in DODGX, after all, it's your money but the above was a pretty clear case, at least for me :-)

The problem for D&C has long been its high weightings in financial services, i.e., banks. That was a big mistake going into the 2008 crisis and they deserved to be criticized for it. Yet I am not so sure it is a mistake in 2020's crisis. Banks are financially much stronger today than they were in 2008 thanks to regulatory reform requiring them to have higher capital requirements that is now unfortunately being sabotaged as every kind of regulation is being dismantled by this administration. I think many of the largest banks will come through this crisis in reasonable shape. So it could be a smart move to overweight them this time. But in 2008 it was a terrible one.

All ratings have been updated on MFO Premium site, including MultiSearch, Great Owls, Fund Alarm (Three Alarm and Honor Roll), Averages, Dashboard of Profiled Funds, and Fund Family Scorecard. The site now includes several analysis tools, including Correlation, Rolling Averages, Trend, Ferguson Metrics, Calendar Year and Period Performance.

This blog post discusses what Pimco observed when they gazed into their crystal ball:

We are seeing the first-ever recession by government decree – a necessary, temporary, partial shutdown of the economy aimed at preventing an even larger humanitarian crisis. What is also different this time is the unprecedented speed and size of the monetary and fiscal response, as policymakers and monetary authorities try to prevent a recession turning into a lasting depression.

We believe this crisis is likely to leave three long-term scars:
Globalization may be dialed back
More private and public debt
Shift in household saving behavior
We believe a caution-first approach is warranted in an effort to protect against permanent capital impairment.

https://blog.pimco.com/en/2020/04/key-takeaways-from-pimcos-cyclical-outlook-from-hurting-to-healing?mod=article_inline