Featured in the May edition of Bottom Line Personal ... MFO's David Snowball picks the following funds for lower volatility in rocky times. They are Arke Focus (AKREX) ... Bruce Fund (BRUFX) ... and, Wellesley Income (VWINX).

There are many different features that lead someone to prefer one financial institution over another. I came up with a number of relatively minor features that I personally place some value in. Haven't found a single perfect institution though. YMMV.
- individual 401(k): free, Roth option, in-service distributions, investment options (full brokerage or house funds). See The College Investor for other features and major providers. Some brokerages provide Roth options; Fidelity and Schwab do not. Vanguard and T. Rowe Price do provide a Roth option, but limit investments to house funds.
- Retail HSA account (not through employer): free, no min cash balance required to invest. Fidelity is the only brokerage I know of that offers HSA accounts directly. Lively (an HSA provider) gives you a brokerage window to TD Ameritrade. See The HSA Report Card for detailed analyses of HSA providers.
- Cash management (bank) services: bill pay, checking, good interest (relatively speaking), ATM access. Vanguard has high interest and checking, but no bill pay or ATM card. At Vanguard and Fidelity, if your core account does not have enough cash to cover a check, they can automatically draw from another (higher yielding) MMF. Many brokerages other than Vanguard provide bill pay and ATM access with surcharge rebates. These features are not so important if you employ a regular bank account.
Schwab's ATM card charges no foreign (international) transaction fee; Fidelity's sometimes charges a 1% fee. Others tend to charge at least this much and may limit surcharge rebates to US ATMs.
- Fractional share purchases of stocks/ETFs (e.g. $100 exactly of MINT). This is something Schwab promised. AFAIK only Fidelity has delivered. (Robinhood rolled out fractional shares earlier this month but it doesn't support limit orders.) Fractional shares is the only "yet to use" feature on my list. It should make buying ETFs easier - more like mutual funds.
- Donor advised funds:low min to open, low grant min, low maintenance cost, low cost funds, wide variety of funds. T. Rowe Price seems to have the lowest "all in" (admin + fund expenses) cost for actively managed funds, but not lowest if using index funds. Fidelity and Schwab have the lowest mins and are low cost. Fidelity has a small advantage on fund costs and variety of funds. Not that one needs many funds for this type of account. It's convenient if the DAF account is with your brokerage as that makes contributing easier.
This list of 74 DAFs is about a decade old, but still gives a good sense of costs and what's out there.

update:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/101507/000143510920000104/usgi_497e.htm
497 1 usgi_497e.htm
U.S. GLOBAL INVESTORS FUNDS
Holmes Macro Trends Fund (the “Fund”)
Investor Class Shares
Supplement dated April 28, 2020, to the Prospectus dated May 1, 2019, as supplemented
IMPORTANT NOTICE REGARDING THE FUND’S NAME, INVESTMENT STRATEGIES AND PRIMARY BENCHMARK INDEX
At the March 27, 2020 meeting of the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of U.S. Global Investors Funds, the Board approved, at the recommendation of U.S. Global Investors, Inc., the investment adviser to the Fund (“Adviser”), changes to the Fund’s name, investment strategies, and primary benchmark index, in order to highlight a focus on luxury goods-related investments.
These changes, which were summarized in a supplement to the Fund’s prospectus dated March 31, 2020, and which were expected to become effective on May 1, 2020, have been postponed pending the resolution of regulatory considerations, and will not be implemented until further notice is made to shareholders.
* * *
For more information, please contact a Fund customer service representative toll free at
1-800-873-8637.
PLEASE RETAIN FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.

Good morning. As I write, stocks are set to add to Monday's gains as the futures are up across the board both here in the States and abroad. As stocks have moved upward the VIX has been in decline and now resides in the low to mid 30's. In addition, Treasury yields now seem to be slowly rising. I'm thinking to support this upward move, in the stock market, earnings are going to have to be reflected in the $150 (or better) range for the S&P 500 Index to trade and hold the 3,000+ range mark. The Index has now regained more lost ground and it is well above of where I thought we would currently now be ... and ... on through most of the summer.

Portfolio Review - First Quarter 2020 is out. The outlook section might be of interest to some. Although Andrew does mention: my warning is not worth the time you took to read it. Paul Espinosa is also a portfolio manager but I am assuming that Andrew wrote the review (just a hunch).
http://www.seafarerfunds.com/funds/ogi/portfolio-review

This article provides another example of the global trend among central banks and how psychology can impact the policy shift decision and size of a response.....

The Bank of Japan.....promised to buy as many government bonds as needed and more than doubled its buying of corporate debt, as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda tried to show the BOJ was pulling its weight in national efforts to support struggling factory owners, shopkeepers and consumers.
“If you look at what we’re doing from the size of our balance sheet against GDP to our measures compared to the size of the commercial paper and corporate bond markets, the scale of the Bank of Japan’s easing is far larger than any other central bank,” Kuroda said at the briefing.
...the BOJ can now make unlimited purchases at a time when record public spending will require new bond issuance to pay for it.
“Impressions matter in this kind of crisis. While the BOJ’s balance sheet is, of course, much bigger than its peers, the response to this kind of crisis is very important.” said Masamichi Adachi, chief Japan economist at UBS Securities and a former BOJ official.

https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-27/boj-ramps-up-stimulus-with-pledge-for-unlimited-bond-buying

Global stocks gain as investors look to lockdown easing.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets/shares-gain-as-investors-look-to-lockdown-easing-idUSKCN22900Z?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+reuters/businessNews+(Business+News)
U.S. stock index futures gained late Sunday, ahead of earnings reports this week from some of America's biggest companies.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-retreat-ahead-of-big-earnings-week-2020-04-26
Looks like it's going to be a good stock day in the markets today as stock futures are up across the board both here and abroad. Let's also see if high yield bonds move upward with their stock cousins. I'm beleiving they will. This indeed could turn into a strong up day (and week) for some investors especially if the shorts start to cover. As I write the VIX is in the mid 30's. If today is a strong rally day for stocks I look for the VIX to continue its decline. On March 20th I recordered the VIX with a reading of 62 with the S&P 500 Index at a valuation of 2305. Friday, I recorded the VIX with a reading of 37 with the S&P 500 Index at a valuation of 2837. As the VIX moves lower stocks trend to move higher. Should we have a strong up week in the stock market (say a 5% gain) then this will put the S&P 500 Index just below the 3,000 mark at 2980 range. For this to happen earnings, for the S&P 500 Index, will need to get marked to the $150.00 range. And, this could indeed happen. As President Trump says ... "We'll see!"
The Futures are linked below.
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx

I own PRIDX. ... It fell hard with coronavirus. But it's coming back, down -13% now, ytd. Down to 3 stars, but still with a silver decoration. ... Top 15% among peers, ytd. Not a great showing compared to peers LAST year, but still very good indeed.

For a few months, I've been promising myself to make a post on being careful about what numbers do and don't represent (i.e. look behind the numbers). Figures like ERs, duration, performance. One of these days.
Meanwhile, to deconstruct these numbers and ratings a bit:
PRIDX outperformed both its benchmark and its category 2019 Q4, 2020 Q1 and YTD, so while it fell hard with coronavirus, on a relative basis it performed admirably. It's the whole market that has come back (to some extent), and PRIDX has more or less just kept up its rate of outperformance.
So why the 3 stars? M* continues to rate its risk as below average (as of March 31) for 3 years, 5 years, and 10 years. Also as of March 31, M* rates 3/5/10 year performance as average, above average, average.
http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=PRIDX&region=usa&culture=en-US
Generally, above average return with below average risk gets a fund into, or close to a 4 star rating. Thus, as of March 31, PRIDX was rated 4 stars for the five year period (above average performance), but 3 stars for the three and ten year periods.
The overall star rating is a weighted average: 3 years (20%), 5 years (30%), and 10 years (50%). So PRIDX gets 3 stars.
https://www.morningstar.com/content/dam/marketing/shared/research/methodology/771945_Morningstar_Rating_for_Funds_Methodology.pdf
Now take a look at the 3/5/10 performance figures. To be rated above average, a fund must be in the top 32.5% of its category (but not in the top 10%).
PRIDX came close to above average performance, but didn't make it over 3 years (38th percentile) or 10 years (33rd percentile). Shift that 10 year performance a little and the 10 year star rating should move up to 4 stars, bringing the overall weighted average rating also up to four stars.
It looks like this has happened. Take performance rankings through today (April 26). 10 year moves up to 27th percentile, 5 year drops slightly from 14th to 17th percentile, and 3 year moves up to 29th percentile. All above average performances.
So one should expect the star rating to move back to 4 stars when it's recalculated unless the fund stumbles in the interim.
All of this goes to show that even when looking at long term performance, what a fund has done lately can have a significant impact.
The poor showing last year? Over the whole year it underperformed its category by 3.18% where the average gain was 27.78%. Not a great showing, but not as bad as its 71st percentile would superficially suggest. Also, it never had a really bad quarter; it just chugged along, trailing by as much as 1.18% in Q3 and as little as 0.25% in Q4. Not great, but fairly consistent and nothing obvious to get concerned about.

This article provides a useful look at the current situation and possible future trends. (Some may find it useful to glide around the more dystopian/dramatic references in the article.) Here are a few excerpts:

The manufacturing sector hasn't completely rolled over yet, but the services sector simply ceased to exist starting late last month.....The message is clear: Main Street isn't just hurting, it is disappearing in a very literal sense. As Atlanta Fed boss Raphael Bostic warned earlier this month, "May is going to loom large, in terms of the transition of concern from this being a liquidity issue… to this perhaps translating and transferring into a solvency issue, and whether companies can exist at all."

(...from Homebase, a scheduling and time tracking tool used by more than 100,000 local businesses covering 1 million hourly employees.)

.
.

Deutsche Bank rolled up the fiscal and monetary support programs announced and implemented in the US and Europe into a single "bailout" figure. The sheer size of the COVID-19 response necessitated a log scale (on the left axis) in order to help "better identify the earlier bailouts and get a rough feel visually for the numbers," as the bank put it. ....."Obviously we won’t know how much will be used until much further down the road," the bank cautioned, in the course of presenting the numbers and accompanying visuals.

....policymakers have been deliberately suppressing volatility, compressing risk premia, tamping down credit spreads and keeping the market wide-open for borrowers for the better part of a decade....
Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos.....At the extreme, central banks could become permanent command economy agents administering equity and credit prices, aggressively subduing financial shocks. With unlimited capacity to print money, central banks have unlimited capacity to intervene in asset markets too. Put simply, a central bank that pegs bond, credit and equity markets is highly likely to stabilize portfolio flows as well.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4340027-dystopia-now

Using tools like Portfolio Visualizer (click on
metrics tab) an investor can review historical data on the safe withdrawal rate of their portfolio. For example a portfolio of 100% PRWCX would have a "Safe Withdrawal Rate" of 10% and a "Safe Perpetual Withdrawal Rate" of 5.6%. The rule of thumb for a Safe Perpetual Withdrawal Rate is 4% according to the Trinity Study (linked below).
Understanding these concepts is an important element of "safely" deriving a portion of one's income in retirement over a time frame of 30 - 50 years.
From the Article:

First, I wanted to see how this was working with recent stock market returns. The original study was only covering years up to 1995. I wanted to have more recent data. I wanted to make sure that the results were holding with more recent stock market behavior. So this simulation will cover returns until the end of 2019!
Secondly, the original study was only covering up to thirty years of retirement. I wanted to be sure that the portfolio can sustain withdrawals for much more extended periods. For people retiring early, I think that 50 years is not unreasonable.

The Trinity Study:
https://thepoorswiss.com/trinity-study/
The Update to the Trinity Study for 2020:
https://thepoorswiss.com/updated-trinity-study/
Here's a 4 Part Series on the Topic.
Part 1:
safe-withdrawal-rates-guide-part-1-background.html
Part 2:
https://fiprofessor.com/2019/07/14/safe-withdrawal-rates-guide-part-2-enough-data.html
Part 3:
https://fiprofessor.com/2019/07/21/safe-withdrawal-rates-guide-part-3-more-bootstrapping.html
Part 4:
https://fiprofessor.com/2019/07/27/safe-withdrawal-rates-guide-part-4-perpetual-rates.html

Hi guys. Another asset allocation fund that I like ... but, do not own is SFAAX. They use to be more transparent with posting their positioning but now they just list their baseline asset allocation as a 40/60 (bond/stock) portfolio. However, I know it gets jockeyed from time to time based upon the manager's read on the makret. I have learned that its stock allocation can range from a low of 45% upwards to a high of 75% while its bond allocation can range from a low of 25% to a high of 55%. It is another fund that has performed well in this recent stock market downdraft. In checking it's performance I'm finding that it is down year to date by -2.65% with a ten year average total return of +9.39% as of 4/24/2020. And, as I write, it is off it's 52 week high by 6.68%. In comparison, the S&P 500 Index is off its 52 week high by 16.2% with a ten year average return of around 11.0%. With this, the fund does employ and offer some downside risk measures while providing excellent returns for an asset allocation fund.
MFO list this as a moderate asset allocation fund with a risk level rating of 3 and with a performance rating of 5. And, yes it made MFO's Honor Roll.
Anybody on the board own this fund? If so ... perhaps, you would be willing to report its positioning from its latest shareholder report? And, make some additional comments. I'd be most interested in learning of your comments and thoughts.

Although outside of the topic of this thread, but in reply to the block quote:
@Crash
You noted:

"And we should not have to invest in JUNK in order to get a decent income stream, each month..."

You don't have to invest in a high yield bond fund for your mission.
Keep in mind with what I write, that I am a total return investor. Be it equity, bonds or a combination. Total return, is what really matters to compound one's money over time.
You are desiring to chase higher yield to have a decent income stream; I look towards chasing bond yield when it is headed down, which equals "price performance and profit" for the total return view.
Depends on how one views income stream and from where it arrives, yes?
You view that income stream comes from a monthly distribution of "yield"; likely from a bond fund investment.
I view income stream (when needed) to arrive from which ever fund holding I choose.
I'll use FBALX as an example, and presume all of the money we have actively invested, is in this fund. So, at this date; one has about a 70% equity and 30% bond portfolio. Perhaps a bit hot to the equity side, but any other balanced fund may be substituted, as with VWINX. The main point being, that long term performance of either fund is decent.
FBALX doesn't have a monthly distribution, only quarterly for the bond portion and semi annual for cap. gains; and the yield is only 1.7%. These don't matter; as the focus is long term total performance of the asset.
If one wants or needs a monthly distribution from this fund; the desired amount of FBALX is sold, which automatically moves to the Fidelity MM account and then transferred to the existing, linked credit union account. Magi-co within a few days time.
Well, just another view of the process of not really needing a bond fund that provides a monthly distribution to obtain the monthly cash flow result.
NOTE: I recall your monthly monies are coming from within an IRA, if so; you're already meeting part of the annual RMD.
My 2 cents worth.
Catch

Hi Everyone here,
Recently I came across Online 7 twelve portfolios &
got interested due to its Brokers specific Fidelity 7Twelve Portfolio with NTF network funds & Etf's.
They also have Vanguard or Schwab network portfolios.
Have you heard or Used The 7Twelve Portfolio before?
How's Performance & tracking with Fidelity in 2019 to April 2020?
http://www.7twelveportfolio.com/Downloads/7Twelve-Model-Intro.pdf
It's by Craig L. Israelsen www.7TwelvePortfolio.com
and with12 NTF mutual funds, utilized in the 7Twelve design can be index funds or actively managed funds.
You can build the 7Twelve model in an IRA account, 401(k) account, regular investment account.
All 12 funds are equally weighted in the “core” 7Twelve model (each with an allocation of 8.33%).
The equal- weighting is maintained by periodic yearly rebalancing.
'There are also three “Age Based” versions of the 7Twelve model that progressively reduces the risk of the portfolio.
Anyone familiar here or have implemented it using Fidelity's NTF funds?
What Do you think
Thanks.
Majick

@linter. Thanks for your question. I hold a good slug of CTFAX in my taxable account. Overall about 65 percent of my investments are held in taxable accounts since I have been an investor for the past sixty plus years from the age of twelve. And, simply stated ... I feel I'd be buying the distribution if purchased now. Yesterday, CTFAX sold down equities from an allocation of 70% to 40%. This sell activity will no doubt result in a sizeable capital gain payout in the upcoming June distribution.

Hi guys, I keyed all of the ticker symbols that Catch22 used in his graph into my fund analysis & review sleeve with fund performance numbers through 04/23/2020. I looked at each fund for its 1 month return period, a year to date period, a one year period, a three year period, a five year period, and a ten year period. For each period the best performing fund was awarded three points, the second best two points and the third best one point. For this study the best performing fund was PRWCX with a total of nine points. The second best was VLAAX with a total of eight points. And, the third best was CTFAX with a total of seven points. Interesting, there was only one fund that had positive returns for all periods and that fund was CTFAX.

Hard to find anything on point since, as the quote below suggests, nothing explicit exists. Still, FWIW:

Furthermore, although qualified charitable distributions (QCDs) can be used to satisfy your RMD, I believe that you cannot make a rollover contribution using those funds. To be a qualified charitable distribution, the assets need to be paid directly to the charity. However, in order to begin a rollover contribution, the funds must be paid directly to you so they are under your control. Thus, even though I cannot find an explicit ruling on the matter, I believe any QCD already taken in 2020 will also be final.

https://www.marottaonmoney.com/if-you-act-fast-you-can-undo-your-2020-rmd-thanks-to-the-cares-act/
That's from the COO of a fee-only wealth management firm. Hardly authoritative, though it is coherent. If I found anything to the contrary containing more than a bald assertion, i.e. with some rationale, I would post that as well. This is all I've found to date.
Let us know if your rollover passes muster.

Steve Eisman. One of the "Big Short" guys from '08-'09: "...Eisman did not specify which U.S. banks he was long. He also said “some” European banks would make for good short positions along with Canadian banks..." (Shorts???)
Eisman reckons the biggest US banks would be a good play..... Here's the link: (CNBC.) https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/big-short-steve-eisman-likes-the-big-us-banks-after-coronavirus-sell-off.html
______________________________________________________
In addition: “The Canadian banks, I think, have not had a credit cycle in literally 30 years. They are not prepared for it and they’re going to have real problems,” he said, without specifying which banks he was betting against..."
*** Please, can someone translate that for me? Thanks.***

Inflation? My starting point, from decent definition: Inflation is a measure of the rate of rising prices of goods and services in an economy. Inflation can occur when prices rise due to increases in production costs, such as raw materials and wages. A surge in demand for products and services can cause inflation as consumers are willing to pay more for the product.
Obviously, there are several common areas that may cause broad inflation. Broad inflation, however; may be impacted more from some select sectors and how these sectors affect an individual household, IMHO. Example: While both personal healthcare needs (insurance, meds, etc.) and technology (computers, smart phones) are of great benefit for a household; their inflation paths likely have a bigger bang for the buck, over time. We have supplemental health insurance through United Health....it's expensive, well; until you need it. So, the offset, to pay for the insurance could be to buy United stock or a healthcare fund that has United stock as part of the portfolio. We may think the insurance cost is way out of line, but if this is the case; then holding the stock/fund should be of benefit and effectively the profit will pay for the premiums over time. As for technology and the consumer side, is that one has been able to upgrade, if desired; the ability of the product.......computers, smart phones, flat screen televisions, etc. If one has been investing in technology over the years, the likely profits have more than paid for the tech. upgrades one desires.
Investing in growth should provide, over time; enough to overcome broad inflation. Though a S&P 500 investment product should provide for growth too, as a reflection of the economy; for us, there remain sectors in the S&P 500 which we do not choose to invest, although this investment offers diversification. There are numerous quality growth funds, etf's or sectors within the growth area, to choose. Healthcare and tech. are ,of course; subject to their own problems with performance over time periods.......as in legislation that may affect profits, etc.; or too expensive and the big money takes profits and runs to another sector. Such, is the nature of all investing, eh?
OPPS, ADD: CPI (gov't. only data) 1971- April 10, 2020 = 537.3% AND Jan., 1999 - April 10, 2020 = 54.5%
NOTE: Our investment portfolio is fully tax deferred (IRA's), so we do not have to be concerned with buys/sells or capital gains when moving our investments. Taxable accounts will have other considerations; although long term investing in growth should not be set aside for this reason, IMHO.
My 2 cents worth.
The below chart is a line graph, for an easier view of returns; click the lime green/red icon at the bottom left of the chart screen for a bar graph. You may return to the line graph when clicking the icon adjacent.
This CHART starts at Jan. 4, 1999 comparing FSPHX, FSPTX and the S&P500.
Take care of you and yours,
Catch

This is an interesting look at what the Fed has been doing in recent weeks.

Creating the Zombie Apocalypse. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is doing an admirable job of playing the action hero in “2012 Zombie Apocalypse,” a 2011 film about a fictional virus, VM2, that causes a global pandemic. He is doing whatever it takes to stop the zombies from killing us by ruining our economy and way of life.

blog.yardeni.com/2020/04/fed-trying-to-contain-zombie-apocalypse.html

YOU have 60 days to return it from date of distribution, I believe I read. Although that may be from CARES implementation.
(Already taken out your 2020 RMD but wish you hadn’t? You might be able to roll over distributions you’ve already taken for 2020, says Slott. If you've already received a distribution from your own IRA or one inherited from a spouse for 2020, you can roll it back into your IRA within 60 days of receipt. ]

A couple of tweaks.
The "classic" 60 day rule is that the clock starts from the date you receive the distribution, not from the date the distribution is made. It can take a few days to receive the check in the mail.
https://www.irahelp.com/slottreport/6-facts-every-ira-owner-should-know-about-60-day-rollover-rule
CARES extended the time from 60 days to three years, and allowed the money to be deposited back into an IRA in pieces. But these modifications apply only to the first $100K withdrawn, and then only if it was withdrawn because of a COVID-19 created need.
The inherited IRA rule is not that you are rolling it back into the inherited IRA. It must be rolled over into an IRA owned by the beneficiary (spouse). As Kitces writes:

(Nerd Note: The lone exception for beneficiaries would be for a spouse who chose to remain a beneficiary of the deceased spouse’s retirement account. In such an instance, they may be eligible to put the RMD back into their own retirement account, as a spousal rollover, using one of the methods described above.)