Hedge funds brace for second stock market plunge
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/c98296d6-00d7-3765-bca4-bf72f3765c55/hedge-funds-brace-for-second.html
Ft article
Managers say asset prices have become too detached from bleak fundamentals
/New York Stock Exchange in Wall Street. There are fears investors may have become too complacent after the recent surge in share prices © AFP via Getty Images
June 4, 2020 3:00 am by Laurence Fletcher in London
Hedge funds are getting ready for another slump in stock markets after growing uneasy that surging prices do not reflect the economic problems ahead.
Some managers fear that equity investors, used to buying the dips during the decade-long bull market that ended in March’s sharp sell-off, have become too complacent about how quickly economies can recover from the coronavirus crisis and how effective stimulus packages from central banks and governments can be.
The S&P 500 index completed its best 50-day run in history on Wednesday, according to LPL Financial, closing within 8 per cent of its record high of mid-February.
“The markets are priced to perfection,” said Danny Yong, founding partner at hedge fund Dymon Asia Capital in Singapore. “The stability in equity markets does not reflect the job losses and the insolvencies ahead of us globally.”
Mr Yong has been buying put options — which protect against market falls by allowing their owner to sell at a pre-determined price — on stock indices and also on currencies sensitive to risk appetite such as the Australian dollar and the Korean won./
Are you folks buying more equities at this stage?

Some interesting reading. Giroux (PM, my beloved PRWCX) doesn't often do interviews, btw.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-16-stocks-figured-prominently-in-this-39-billion-fund-managers-strategy-as-markets-dove-in-march-2020-06-03?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-06-02/Gold-stocks-vs-gold-it-s-rocket-time.html
Gold stocks vs gold: it's rocket time
Stewart Thomson Stewart Thomson
/A year ago, gold stock investors had to choose their stocks carefully. In contrast, now it’s hard to find a gold stock that isn’t roaring higher!/

https://www.fedsmith.com/2020/06/02/new-tsp-funds-coming-july-1/
New TSP Funds Coming July 1
L2020 will closes and monies will be rolled into income Lincome funds...also new L fund 2060 and 2065 are introduced
L 2065
L 2060
L 2055
L 2050
L 2045
L 2040
L 2035
L 2030
L 2025
L Income
Do other firms gave 2065 TDFs

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4351221-coronavirus-roundtable-closed-end-funds-opportunity-persists
Roundtable - The Closed-End Funds Opportunity Persists
Jun. 1, 2020 7:00 AMExchange Listed Funds Trust - Saba Closed-End Funds ETF (CEFS)ADX, DMO, EHI
Summary
We gather a panel of authors to discuss closed-end funds and their set-up heading into June.
While distributions have been cut in some places, other areas have held up nicely.
Combined with still wider discounts to NAVs, nimble investors may find opportunities.
Pdi
Adx
Will add these to watch lists
Regards

Every post you make FD is all about you. "I saw this. I did that. Every one else is dumb for missing it." The point is the likelihood of anyone 'investing" in this fund, not trading, would not have seen a 40% drop in 2 days on the horizon.
Yes, totally BS. And what is the smiley face for?

You are correct, I didn't know in advance how bad it could be but I expected it to be bad.
Your reaction is typical, I see anger and disbelief when I tell you my thoughts and how I operate. The smiley is to let you know it's all expected.
In this thread(

link), I documented many trades that I have done since 2-28-2020. I made several similar posts on MFO too, see (here). Why no admit I made a great call.
I'm pretty sure you will come back and request me to post every trade I make :-)
My trading style has been established for years which helped me in the last 3 years since retirement in 2018. I will sell any bond fund that loses more than 1%, actually, I even sell earlier if other funds in the same category behave differently or I can find a better fund according to my goals.
Here is the bottom line: while you claim it's all BS the facts show I sold all my portfolio to cash prior to the meltdown.

You sound a little cocky, but I wouldn't worry too much. There's some sour grapes goin around lately. I got some crap for commenting on a post on someone bummed on staying in cash, not buying the dip, and furthermore, anticipating a second covid wave to justify in another thread. These things happen. We've all f-ed up. No big deal.

New ARTICLE today from the Washington Post.

Every post you make FD is all about you. "I saw this. I did that. Every one else is dumb for missing it." The point is the likelihood of anyone 'investing" in this fund, not trading, would not have seen a 40% drop in 2 days on the horizon.
Yes, totally BS. And what is the smiley face for?

You are correct, I didn't know in advance how bad it could be but I expected it to be bad.
Your reaction is typical, I see anger and disbelief when I tell you my thoughts and how I operate. The smiley is to let you know it's all expected.
In this thread(link), I documented many trades that I have done since 2-28-2020. I made several similar posts on MFO too, see (here). Why no admit I made a great call.
I'm pretty sure you will come back and request me to post every trade I make :-)
My trading style has been established for years which helped me in the last 3 years since retirement in 2018. I will sell any bond fund that loses more than 1%, actually, I even sell earlier if other funds in the same category behave differently or I can find a better fund according to my goals.
Here is the bottom line: while you claim it's all BS the facts show I sold all my portfolio to cash prior to the meltdown.

Cross immunity (immunity due to exposure to similar viruses in the past, e.g. certain variants of the common cold) is another theory that might explain what's happening in Italy and elsewhere. Spain has just had its first day without any COVID-19 deaths. This was not expected when they started easing their lockdowns
Or it's just warm weather and we'll be royally screwed in the fall.

The basics are still the same: Know what you own, expect the worse(which is what I do) and past performance and volatility are not guaranteed.

I call BS on that advice FD. None of what you said is usable. This was a fund with good consistent returns and a very low STD to boot. It would have been easier to interpret the risk if the funds literature would have been more accurate, especially on liquidity and possible fire-sale risk. The fund collapsed 45% before the dust could settle. 40% within 2 days. Trading limits on mutual funds that only allow trades after the market closes gives an investor 2 days as the quickest reaction time to unload. Most here aren't day traders so your advice on this fund is worthless.
Sorry, but your infallible preaching is a bit nauseating.

Well, several quotes from the past
1) 2-28-2020-According to MFO databased when you search for Multi sector funds for 3 years + best martin ratio you get the following funds
Fund performance ANFIX 5.3 IOFIX 10.6 SEMMX 5.1 BDKNX 5.7 ANGLX 4.2
2) 2-29-2020-I'm taking my profit and watching. There is no way to be sure how IOFIX will do if markets go wild
3) 3-3/2020-There is no guarantee of what will happen in the future. I think the worse was in 11/2018 when IOFIX lost more than 1% in one day.
Over the years:
I have watched IOFIX jumping 2-3 times annually 2-3% within days while others didn't.
In 2008 MBS got crushed. ORNAX(HY Muni) fell over 40% and more than others.
I can't remember the fund name but it was a bond fund in 2010-11 that I owned, sold before it crashed and you couldn't sell it for years.
Look at the above, item 3, how can a fund make 10% annually which is double than most in its category. IOFIX is an exotic fund with illiquid bonds and its daily pricing is just a guesstimation. When something looks too good to be true, it usually is
So, with the above in mind, I always watched IOFIX very carefully and was in/out over the years.
Did I know it will crash over 40%? of course not, but I thought 20% was a possibility.
As a trader, I also have specific guidelines. Prior to retirement, I would sell any bond fund that lost 3%, after retirement, it's just 1%.
I also learned years ago while trading stocks that when markets get wild and you try to sell a stock with low volume, it can go down 30% in seconds while QQQ,SPY go down just several %.
BTW, I also sold my other riskier fund which was NHMAX(HY MUNI), prior to the crash and it lost over 22%.
If you still think the above is BS, then be it :-)

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1074440/000138713120005366/amidex-497_060120.htm
(AMDAX,AMDEX,AMDCX)
497 1 amidex-497_060120.htm SUPPLEMENT DATED JUNE 1, 2020
REVISED FOR REVIEW AND DISCUSSION
AMIDEX™ Funds, Inc.
4300 SHAWNEE MISSION PARKWAY, SUITE 100
FAIRWAY, KS 66205
1-888-876-3566
SUPPLEMENT DATED JUNE 1, 2020 TO THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUS, PROSPECTUS AND
STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION DATED SEPTEMBER 30, 2019, AS SUPPLEMENTED
This Supplement updates certain information contained in the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) of AMIDEX Funds (the “Fund”), dated September 30, 2019, as supplemented. You should read this Supplement in conjunction with the Prospectus and SAI and retain it for future reference. You may obtain an additional copy of the Prospectus and SAI, free of charge, by calling 1-888-876-3566 or by sending an e-mail request to [email protected], or you can view, print and download a copy of these documents at the Fund’s website at www.amidex.com.
The purpose of this Supplement is to provide you with information about the liquidation and termination of the AMIDEX35 Israel Fund (the “Fund”).
Information Regarding the AMIDEX35 Israel Fund
At a meeting held on May 15, 2020, the Fund’s Board of Directors (the “Board”), upon the recommendation of Index Investments, LLC, the Fund’s investment adviser, the Board determined that is was in the best interests of the shareholder’s of the Fund to close and liquidate the Fund and on May 28, 2020 the Board of Directors approved a Plan of Liquidation (the “Plan”) under which the Fund will liquidate and terminate. It is expected that the liquidation will take place on or about June 19, 2020 (the “Liquidation Date”). Under the Plan, the Fund will sell its portfolio securities for cash and will convert any other assets to cash or cash equivalents by the Liquidation Date and pay any liabilities. On the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute cash pro rata to all remaining shareholders who have not previously redeemed all of their shares. This distribution will be a taxable event for each shareholder that is not tax-exempt, resulting in a gain or loss measured by the difference between the amount distributed to the shareholder and the shareholder’s basis in the Fund’s shares. Once the distribution is complete, the Fund will terminate.
In anticipation of the liquidation, the Fund will close to new investments, effective on June 1, 2020. In addition, the Fund will sell its portfolio holdings in an orderly manner to convert its assets to cash. During this time, the Fund might not pursue its investment objectives or policies.
Please note that you may be eligible to exchange your shares of the Fund at net asset value per share at any time prior to the Liquidation Date for shares of the same share class of another fund under certain circumstances. Please also note that you may redeem your shares of the Fund at any time prior to the Liquidation Date as described in the Fund’s Prospectus, dated September 30, 2019, as supplemented. In general, exchanges and redemptions are taxable events for shareholders. If you own Fund shares in a tax deferred account, such as an individual retirement account, 401(k) or 403(b) account, you should consult your tax adviser to discuss a Fund’s liquidation and determine its tax consequences.
For more information, please call 1-888-876-3566.

The basics are still the same: Know what you own, expect the worse(which is what I do) and past performance and volatility are not guaranteed.
When a black swan shows up most categories don't work except treasuries and the only way to avoid the meltdown is to sell. It happened in 2008-9 and 2020. This is pretty good break if you think about it.
Reminder: VCIT (Vanguard investment-grade corp bond) lost over 13% and a proof that even higher-rated, simpler bonds from conservative Vanguard were affected by market extreme.

The new-old paradigm: https://nytimes.com/2020/05/23/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-economic-response.html

Shades of Irving Fisher ... I must say flipping channels back and forth last evening to occasionally catch the global “futures markets” while observing the spreading protests / violence in this country seemed a bit surreal. Yes - guns at our state capital and outside the Governor’s residence. The symbolism of armed (masked and unmasked) men confronting a female Governor and AG shouldn’t be dismissed.
So much paradox.
Most of the Michigan gun-wielders possess an economic philosophy and political doctrine one would find quite contrary to that of the protesters on the streets of NYC, DC, Minneapolis, Atlanta.
Than there’s the paradox of billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio warning repeatedly in recent years of civil strife / eventual revolution if the widening abyss between wealth and poverty isn’t rectified peaceably. https://observer.com/2019/04/ray-dalio-explain-capitalism-weath-gap-inequality/
Throw in the paradox of an intense election debate four years ago over building walls - both figuratively and literally - when we need desperately to tear down walls for our own survival.
Like I said, lots of paradox. Take your pick.

In this months newsletter below is Dr. Madell's opening paragraphs. They read as follows:
With all the pandemic, economic, geopolitical, and now societal angst being felt worldwide recently, it should be no surprise that many stock funds have taken it on the chin lately. On the other hand, most bond funds have proven to be a ballast during this period, as discussed in last month's Newsletter. This once again proves that, for many, in order to more safely avoid the risks of an all-stock portfolio, one containing both these asset classes makes a whole lot of sense. (Of course, the reverse is true as well: If bonds enter a prolonged period of poor or even negative performance, it should prove to be wise to be a holder of at least some stocks as well as bonds, as the two asset classes tend to go in somewhat different directions.)
But what is truly surprising is how well stocks have confounded our worst fears which might have suggested a more drastic collapse. In fact, for those who have been long-term holders, it might almost appear that nothing at all has been happening. In particular, had one stayed in the game over the last 10 years, the majority of holders of quality stock funds and ETFs, if they, similar to Rip Van Winkle, had just woken up from a one decade long sleep and took a glance at the performance of their portfolio, they would hardly be aware of anything out of the ordinary having happened.
As you will see in the many performance results presented in this article, Armageddon has not yet occurred for most stock investors, although that is certainly no guarantee that things may still not get worse rather than better.
To continue reading click on the link below.
http://funds-newsletter.com/jun20-newsletter/jun20.htm

Here's link to April marketing brief:
http://alphacentricfunds.com/funds/IncomeOpp/presentation.pdf
No mention of liquidity crisis.
Just: "Turn in Q1 2020 Marks The Sharpest Reversal in History"
Once the Fed stepped-in and the redemptions stopped (aka once it survived a run on the fund), the fund has rebounded nicely, if still a long way to go.
I still like the strategy, but as an MBS value trade, not for no-drawdown, steady-eddy behavior the fund displayed for nearly 5 years.
At the end of the day, it's still a high-yield, non-investment grade bond fund ... concentrated in one sector.
Allocate accordingly unless you are willing to treat it as a trade and exit at first sign of trouble.
Eyes wide open and fearful everyday you own it.

Fact sheets (compare and contrast before and after):
http://web.archive.org/web/20190411093154/http://alphacentricfunds.com/funds/IncomeOpp/FactSheet.pdf (4Q2018)
http://alphacentricfunds.com/funds/IncomeOpp/FactSheet.pdf (1Q2020)
A few things stand out to me. One concerns investments in asset-backed securities (ABS).
The current (August 2019) prospectus (see Lewis' link) says that "The Fund seeks to achieve its investment objective by primarily investing in asset-backed fixed income securities ... and non-agency residential and commercial mortgages". Yet in both late 2018 and early 2020 the fund had less than ½% in ABS. For that matter, no commercial mortgages at all.
But there was a change in how the fact sheet described the fund's investments.
4Q2018: overlooked segments of RMBS, ABS, and securitized markets
1Q2020: primarily non-agency RBMS and other residential housing debt (ABS is omitted)
Risk/reward changes also stood out.
4Q2018: Sharpe ratio 2.22, std dev 3.81%
1Q2020: Sharpe ratio: 0.03, std dev 17.86%
current (M*): Sharpe ratio: , std dev 23.38%
Finally, here's the main supplement, dated March 23, to the current prospectus. (There are two others; one is for change of address, the other is for load waivers.)
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1355064/000158064220001282/alphacentric497s.htm
To the section on liquidity risk, it added two sentences, saying that the coronavirus affected liquidity in fixed income markets "including many of the securities the Fund holds." It went on to say that "it is more likely" (than before, I guess) that the fund will conduct fire sales to meet redemptions.
To the market risk section, it added two paragraphs of boilerplate about war, terrorism, public health, depressions, etc. This addition, unlike the first, applied to all AlphaCentric funds.

This short article discusses changes Nicolas Colas, co-founder of DataTreck Research, thinks have taken place during the 21st century compared to the prior 50 years. He thinks these changes have increased what the stock market accepts to be reasonable valuations. Its interesting he includes a "DC Put" in his description of the crisis response tools the markets will expect to be utilized going forward.

A new model for assessing stocks may include higher valuations, as the old paradigm is no longer valid, according to a research note from DataTrek Research on Tuesday.
More aggressive Fed interventions will keep the stock market bottoms higher, and low interest rates and more innovation can boost the tops.

https://marketwatch.com/story/were-in-a-new-paradigm-for-stocks-this-analyst-argues-get-ready-for-permanently-higher-valuations-2020-05-19?mod=home-page

Municipal market closes out May steady
By Lynne Funk, Christine Albano
May 29, 2020, 4:38 p.m. EDT
https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/municipal-market-closes-out-may-steady
The municipal market concluded the final trading session of May on steady footing, with secondary yields remaining flat Friday amid a pickup in issuance.
Meanwhile, New York City will begin to reopen starting June 8, the mayor and governor said Friday.
Generic municipal yields have held at steady levels, though some sources said that is a signal that a breakout in movements in either direction could occur
High-yield issues were slightly higher on the day.
Tightening spreads and low yields ended the week on
“As high-yield fund outflows subsided, benchmark liquid high-yield names such as Buckeye Tobacco, COFINA, and Illinois GOs all tightened 20 to 25 basis points on the strength,” Horowitz said.
In addition, he said last week's NuStar Logistics new issue traded up eight basis points. The Guam Water deal this week, he said, was the only “real yield” and summoned demand over 22 times the amount available, bumped 25 basis points, and then rallied another 33 basis points on the break, according to Horowitz.
Looking ahead, the high-yield spreads should continue to tighten as the generic market will continue to see a supply-demand imbalance.
“Next week's yield calendar is again very light, so we are expecting spreads to continue to grind tighter as high-yield funds look to re-deploy cash and the secondary market selling pressure has all but abated,” Horowitz said.
“Looking at the high-grade, tax-exempt calendar, we would expect subscription levels to be heavy next week as there does not appear to be enough supply to satiate the market's demand,” he added.
docket but no date set. Wells Fargo is lead manager.
in the previous week. Ex-ETFs, muni funds saw inflows of $870.959 million after inflows of $1.234 billion in the prior week.
The four-week moving average was positive at $776.244 million, after being in the green at $189.374 million in the previous week.
Up little bit in may..will trend continue next month,

@David_Snowball,
Thank you for clarifying the reason for the sale. I forgot about the April article.
For some reason the above link is not working, so I will attempt it again,
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2020/04/taking-the-polar-plunge/