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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • David Giroux interview on buying during the selloff
    @FD1000: "...D&C is [one of the worst managers of all time]...". Oh my goodness. Really; what does one do with that?
    I meant to say below average. EXample: DODGX trail the "stupid" index SPY for performance + risk attributes. See the (proof)
    Please don't come back and claim it's not fair because DODGX is more value while SPY is blend. The goal is to make money and if your fund has worse performance + SD,Sharpe,Sortino it's a knockout. You can'y hide behind "VALUE" for years. Recent performance is another proof. YTD...DODGX -7.8...SPY -0.2%
  • A ‘misclassification error’ made the May unemployment rate look better than it is.
    Why all the agitation over BLS misclassification errors this month, when similar ones last month were arguably worse? Something that @Rbrt pointed out.
    Actually, if both April and May numbers were adjusted as suggested (to 19.7% unemployment in April and 16.3% in May) the reduction in unemployment, such as it is, would be 3.4%, far better than the official 1.4% reduction.
    The flaw in the April figures was obvious; one didn't need the BLS or reporters to it. The number of people in the labor force (i.e. employed or unemployed) does not drop from 162.9M in March to 156.5M in April, unless a lot of the newly unemployed are being counted as no longer in the labor force.
    Here are the BLS figures; read from them what you will:
    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm
    Forbes, May 10, 2020,Don’t Be Fooled By Official Unemployment Rate Of 14.7%; The Real Figure Is Even Scarier
    “Interviewers were told to classify people who were employed [but] absent from work due to COVID-related reasons as temporarily unemployed. Many did this incorrectly —correcting for this error raises the unemployment rate to nearly 20%,” [Betsey Stevenson] explained. [Ms. Stevenson "was a member of the Council of Economic Advisers as well as the Chief Economist of the U.S. Department of Labor".]
    To its credit, the BLS realized and called out this technical misclassification in its report ... The misclassification caused the BLS to understate the unemployment rate by roughly five percentage points, meaning the adjusted unemployment rate is really closer to 20%.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/shaharziv/2020/05/10/dont-be-fooled-by-official-unemployment-rate-of-147-the-real-figure-is-even-scarier/#3aa898c055dd
  • A ‘misclassification error’ made the May unemployment rate look better than it is.
    About those unemployment numbers (quoting Heather Cox Richardson):
    " The report showed an unemployment rate of 13.3%, although it had been expected to come in about six points higher. Even with those gains, the US has one of the highest unemployment rates in the world, according to Josh Lipsky of the Atlantic Council. And there is a problem with the report’s numbers, noted on the report itself. Because there was a “misclassification error”—people furloughed because of the pandemic did not get counted as unemployed-- the numbers are about 3 percentage points low, putting the real unemployment rate at about 16.3%."
  • A ‘misclassification error’ made the May unemployment rate look better than it is.
    From the article (the gains, due to reopening still stand but that in addition to the May number being wrong the March and April unemployment rates were also underreported)
    “ This problem started in March when there was a big jump in people claiming they were temporarily “absent” from work for “other reasons.” The BLS noticed this and flagged it right away. In March, the BLS said the unemployment rate likely should have been 5.4 percent, instead of the official 4.4 percent rate. In April, the BLS said the real unemployment rate was likely about 19.7 percent, not 14.7 percent.
    Economists said the big takeaway is that it’s hard to collect real-time data during a pandemic and that while the unemployment rate remains high — likely more than 16 percent — it has declined a little from April.”.
    I want to see what this does to number of jobs which is currently reported at around 133,000,000.
  • A ‘misclassification error’ made the May unemployment rate look better than it is.
    When the U.S. government’s official jobs report for May came out on Friday, it included a note at the bottom saying there had been a major “error” indicating that the unemployment rate likely should be higher than the widely reported 13.3 percent rate.
    The special note said that if this “misclassification error” had not occurred, the “overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported,” meaning the unemployment rate would be about 16.3 percent for May.
    Economists said the big takeaway is that it’s hard to collect real-time data during a pandemic and that while the unemployment rate remains high — likely more than 16 percent — it has declined a little from April.
    https://washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/05/may-2020-jobs-report-misclassification-error/
  • May Jobs Report Stronger than Expected / PUNDITS!
    Just to reemphasize, here’s what the BLS report says:
    “ | If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to "other |
    | reasons" (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical May) had |
    | been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate |
    | would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported (on a not seasonally |
    | adjusted basis). However, according to usual practice, the data from the household |
    | survey are accepted as recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions are |
    | taken to reclassify survey responses. |
    | |
    | More information is available at |
    | www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-may-2020.pdf.“
    It’s not clear to me that this would change the number of unemployed. You would assume so but the 2 do not always go hand in hand.
  • May Jobs Report Stronger than Expected / PUNDITS!
    How do we know the published job numbers are not fabricated?
    It appeared there is a miscalculation from BLS, and the actual number reported is 3% higher than that of April number. Taken that in its totality, the employment picture is not so rosy as the president announced...
    The special note said that if this misclassification error had not occurred, the "overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported," meaning the unemployment rate would be about 16.3 percent for May.
    https://www.greenwichtime.com/business/article/The-May-jobs-report-had-misclassification-error-15320999.php
    This is the same article published in Washington Post last night by Heather Long, a long respected financial reporter. Another data point from CNBC. That’s due an error in how furloughed workers were treated in the data sample. April’s unemployment rate would have been nearly 20% absent that same error.
    Question is how can this error released pre-maturely? And this get back to @TheShadow's question...
    As a result of this new picture emerged, safe assets such as high quality bonds and gold declined for the week.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    From the same source, stockchart, I think this(link) maybe be easier but only allows 5 funds. The easy part is by letting you select the period easily. You have one month and all the way using start/end dates.
    The best IMO is PortfolioVis. It has many more choices and you can see SD, max draw, Sharpe, Sortino and more but allow you only 4 funds. See (link) for BBN,GWMEX,TSIIX,ANBEX for 3 years. It shows how BBN SD=12 is 2-3 times higher than the others
  • David Giroux interview on buying during the selloff
    IMO, market moved up too far. too fast I don't really care. It seems like dot com days. You can fart in a bottle, hold it up and say "cloud" and your stock goes up. Meanwhile, I read this.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-06-05/nfp-jobs-data-manipulated-all-paid-ppp-loans
    I've been earning good income on options for 2 months. I'm worried I'm getting addicted to it. I think I can make 10-12% this way, so I'm not rushing in and buying any more funds at this time. I own PRWCX and RPGAX in my MIL's account and am happy with both of them. If GMO is to be believed, then RPGAX should catch up with its higher allocation to international holdings.
  • You should be nervous!’—legendary money manager slashes stock market exposure from 55% to 25%
    You should be nervous!’—legendary money manager slashes stock market exposure from 55% to 25%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/you-should-be-nervouslegendary-money-manager-slashes-stock-market-exposure-from-55-to-25-2020-06-05
    /As investors we should always get nervous when we start making too much money too easily. As a foolish youth I once ignored that rule while speculating on interest rate futures, and got my fingers slammed in the door very quickly and very hard./
    Do you agree with his views....
    Maybe it's a v shape after all
    Maybe it's a great day to bail if I am 6 12 months from retirement
  • Just when you think the market is overpriced
    One of the most infallible and rare momentum indicator is triggered and says stocks will be much higher six months down the road. Wish I had posted this yesterday as the indicator kicked in close of Wednesday. But I couldn’t believe my data and called a technical market guru yesterday to see if my data was correct. He said yep, the indicator sure did kick in. Anyway Marty Zweig’s ten day advance/decline ratio greater than 2 to 1 kicked in.
    The way you compute this as shown in Marty’s book Winning On Wall Street is simply take the total 10 day NYSE advances and the total 10 day declines. Whenever that is greater than 2 to 1 you have a momentum buy thrust. You wouldn’t think this that rare but in his updated book you only had 11 instances of this occurring between 1953 and 1996. In all 11 instances the market was higher six months later and by an average of 15.2%.
    Since the book and since the last signal listed in the book we have had two additional signals. March 2009 and as I discussed previously last year, January 2019. Those six months gains were higher than 15.2%. Unfortunately this indicator has been bastardized a bit by a computer formula and that formula shows another two signals. But when I went back and checked those signals did not qualify as described by Marty.
    Marty’s double 9 to 1 up volume/ down volume indicator kicked in one day after the recent March low. I was surprised to see this other indicator kick in after an already 40% rise in the markets. Like everyone else I have never seen a market so detached from economic realty. So will be interesting if we keep marching higher for yet another 6 months or this time around the indicator fails. I have always been a disbeliever in traditional technical analysis and its associated mumbo jumbo. Yet always had the utmost respect and fully utilized Marty’s two momentum indicators most especially his up/down volume indicator.
  • May Jobs Report Stronger than Expected / PUNDITS!
    More data from NPR. Looks like these number reflect workers who were furloughed as their business closed down temporarily. Now the business are opening back up. Let's hope this does not trigger a second wave of COVID infection.
    https://npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/05/869821293/as-america-struggles-to-return-to-work-staggering-unemployment-numbers-loom
  • (RE-DO), still crazy and playing again.....(NOT) Exited AAA gov't bonds
    Hi @Sven The AAA bonds????? If that is your question. Sales went to cash, to await another play day. We still hold healthcare and tech. equity....didn't sell in the recent melt. Have not performed the math, but we'll be about 38% cash MM, 32% BAGIX and 30% equity.
    'Course, always want to have a positive total return for the entire portfolio, but capital preservation is the mode here.
  • (RE-DO), still crazy and playing again.....(NOT) Exited AAA gov't bonds
    AAA gov't bonds have been taking it on the head this week. All of our direct controlled investments into these bonds have been liquidated. Any related positions that remain within a broad bond fund will be at the fate of management.
    All other bond types are traveling on different paths. Your return will vary this week ending.
    Tis more than enough to observe markets and impact upon bonds. The massive intervention of "cash" into the markets continues to cause so much distortion. I could usually use broad market observations and have my own forecast as to what and where with bonds..........not right now, not today for me. Hats off to the astute traders who can catch a positive wave in bondland right now.
    FED yield curve management
  • May Jobs Report Stronger than Expected / PUNDITS!
    Poor Mohammad El-Erian - just one of a parade of gloomy morose prognosticators Bloomberg has frequently featured on air over the past two or three months. Not to pick on just El-Erian, Larry Summers is another gloomy predictor they’ve rolled out since the market encountered a downdraft in March. Here’s El-Erian in April .
    Hilarious watching El-Erian try to do some sort of mid-course correction this morning after the hot (warmer?) data came out. Sounds like he’s pushing short / intermediate investment grade corporates at this point. Points to the dangers of trying to base long term investment decisions on these types of pronouncements. Truth is: Nobody knows where the global economy will be in a year - let alone 5 or 10 years. If you can’t have a 5-10 year time horizon, you shouldn’t be in equities & most risk assets at all.
    Purely local and anecdotal - but in northern Mi it’s almost impossible getting construction / remodeling done this summer. Builders are backed up for months. I suspect a lot of money that would have gone to the airlines and hospitality businesses this summer is being pumped into home improvement projects instead. Tourism locally is down, but improving. Big box stores are crowded. Waited half an hour in a check-out line this week.
    Link to May Jobs Report Story:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-05/u-s-jobless-rate-unexpectedly-fell-in-may-as-hiring-rebounded
  • 7 best CEFs
    Thx sir @_ LewisBraham
    Imho We missed discount marks last wk march 2020
  • 7 best CEFs
    Hercules Capital is not a closed-end fund but a business development company or BDC.
  • 7 best CEFs
    https://money.usnews.com/investing/funds/slideshows/best-paying-closed-end-funds
    7 best CEFs
    Best Closed-End Funds of 2020
    Barbara Friedberg
    June 3, 2020, 4:02 PM CDT
    Here are the best closed-end funds for income.
    /Closed-end funds have been around for more than a hundred years. Today, they currently offer juicy yields. Shares of CEFs are traded on the open market. Like stocks, CEFs are offered at an initial public offering. They're invested in a portfolio of securities and managed by an investment firm. Unlike typical mutual funds, new money doesn't flow into these funds; the existing shares are bought and sold by investors. CEFs, similar to exchange-traded funds, invest in a variety of securities, such as stocks, bonds and alternative investments. CEFs can also sell at a premium or discount to their net asset value -- meaning you can essentially buy shares on sale. CEFs have a distribution rate, instead of a dividend rate, and this may consist of earnings, capital gains and return of principal. If you're considering a CEF, review its prospectus to understand how the yield is determined. Here are seven of the best closed-end funds for income across a variety of sectors/
    Top-producing closed-end funds for investors:
    -- The India Fund (IFN)
    -- Voya Emerging Markets High Dividend Equity Fund (IHD)
    -- Aberdeen Total Dynamic Dividend Fund (AOD)
    -- BlackRock Taxable Municipal Bond Trust (BBN)
    -- Hercules Capital (HTGC)
    -- PIMCO High Income Fund (PHK)
    -- BlackRock Core Bond Trust (BHK)