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https://washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/05/may-2020-jobs-report-misclassification-error/When the U.S. government’s official jobs report for May came out on Friday, it included a note at the bottom saying there had been a major “error” indicating that the unemployment rate likely should be higher than the widely reported 13.3 percent rate.
The special note said that if this “misclassification error” had not occurred, the “overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported,” meaning the unemployment rate would be about 16.3 percent for May.
Economists said the big takeaway is that it’s hard to collect real-time data during a pandemic and that while the unemployment rate remains high — likely more than 16 percent — it has declined a little from April.
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“ This problem started in March when there was a big jump in people claiming they were temporarily “absent” from work for “other reasons.” The BLS noticed this and flagged it right away. In March, the BLS said the unemployment rate likely should have been 5.4 percent, instead of the official 4.4 percent rate. In April, the BLS said the real unemployment rate was likely about 19.7 percent, not 14.7 percent.
Economists said the big takeaway is that it’s hard to collect real-time data during a pandemic and that while the unemployment rate remains high — likely more than 16 percent — it has declined a little from April.”.
I want to see what this does to number of jobs which is currently reported at around 133,000,000.
if more than >17%, stock futures may give back >1000 points ..monday will be very interesting
Did (think??) BLS give wrong falae suppressed data under Barry Bushes Clintons dictatorships ?
What in the hell is this statement????????????????????????????
Think I remember Ussr loving Mitch and Romney kept pounding Obama about false unemployment rates reported
You didn't answer the question..........dictorships??????????????????
Clinton's they were above the laws and did better after impeachment
Obama for creating ObamaCare without partisanships
Trump _ well no needs to describe, he does what he want without remorse feelings and he is surely against everyone
Imho I think present and past POTUS opinions and voting records are so strong /skewed and seem >50% favored one sided; the other side definitely think 'dictatorships' but in reality they only vote/do what best for their party (except for Trump maybe)...
Strong opinionated maybe corrected term...
" The report showed an unemployment rate of 13.3%, although it had been expected to come in about six points higher. Even with those gains, the US has one of the highest unemployment rates in the world, according to Josh Lipsky of the Atlantic Council. And there is a problem with the report’s numbers, noted on the report itself. Because there was a “misclassification error”—people furloughed because of the pandemic did not get counted as unemployed-- the numbers are about 3 percentage points low, putting the real unemployment rate at about 16.3%."
I see many at risk folks walking around like no virus even existed hospitalizations going down but still very busy according to my pulmonary critical care physician brother in downtown Chicago
I hope I'm wrong and end up regretting being in a very heavy cash position and the virus fizzles out
Posting for entertainment purposes only
Good luck to all
Baseball fan
Actually, if both April and May numbers were adjusted as suggested (to 19.7% unemployment in April and 16.3% in May) the reduction in unemployment, such as it is, would be 3.4%, far better than the official 1.4% reduction.
The flaw in the April figures was obvious; one didn't need the BLS or reporters to it. The number of people in the labor force (i.e. employed or unemployed) does not drop from 162.9M in March to 156.5M in April, unless a lot of the newly unemployed are being counted as no longer in the labor force.
Here are the BLS figures; read from them what you will:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm
Forbes, May 10, 2020,Don’t Be Fooled By Official Unemployment Rate Of 14.7%; The Real Figure Is Even Scarier https://www.forbes.com/sites/shaharziv/2020/05/10/dont-be-fooled-by-official-unemployment-rate-of-147-the-real-figure-is-even-scarier/#3aa898c055dd
https://bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
P.S.: I can't breathe.
The 6 months ago BLS great report was bogus. The last one was bogus.
Trump declared that breathing air is good for you.
4 more years are coming
As Hank mentioned, there can be a lot of discussion about the semantics of this but the bottom line is everything these days coming out of Washington has to be suspect. This is not a knock on the Federal civil servants doing their best to do their job. And we know that they've been 'massaging' the numbers FOR GENERATIONS. That's the nature of the beast. At shadowstats.com, one of his alternative stats is for the CPI as calculated today vs. how it was determined during the Reagan admin. It would be 8% points higher today.
However, when they starting beating drums and calling out the marching bands like earlier this past week on the ADP, they knew, and most of us knew, the unemployment numbers were going to be wonderful. And bullshit.
At this point in time, there is NOTHING that comes out of the government in Washington that can be believed. Will it be couched in seeming truths? Of course. They'll gussy it up like the prettiest silk purse you'll ever see. And some people will believe it and some won't. And this administration doesn't even care if you don't believe them. The base does.
Remain skeptical . . . and stay thirsty, my friends.
rono