We all have some sort of “barometer”: Internal guidance, hunches, an index we watch, technicals, a plan written down, prior experience or maybe a “guru” we follow. @Junkster, who I’ve enjoyed following a long time, seems to rely heavily on some technical indicators. Currently under discussion is the Zweig Indicator. I’m “late to school” when it comes to technicals. Even today I view them with a bit of skepticism, telling myself they’re probably better indicators of market psychology than anything else. Given that, in this era of investing, psychology - if not the name of the game - is very important however you cut it.
I enjoy Ol’Skeet’s comprehensive write-ups very much. All of us can take a cue from his meticulous planning and devotion to his value metrics. Is he always right? Don’t know. My recollection says “no.” So I went back and looked at what he wrote on March 20. That had to be very close to the recent bottom. Remember it because I made a small purchase of DODGX that day.
“The barometer as of market close Thursday maintains its reading of 180 indicating that the S&P 500 Index is extremely oversold. I am also detecting that a bottom is forming as three of the data feeds and influences that the barometer use are green lighting.” (March 20, 2020)
So good call back than Ol’Skeet.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/55474/old-skeet-s-market-barometer-spring-reporting-and-my-positioning/p2

The market is running on fumes, hoping that 4 Qtr 2020 or at worse 2021 earnings are back to pre covid levels. Powell said they will not be, as he does not expect economy to recover until at least late 2021

VWINX most recently experienced a (-18.5 %) draw down (from its recent high on 2/21/2020) and a DD recovery of a little less than 4 months time (Feb - June). I spent some time today reviewing and comparing VWINX to other funds I own.
On a YTD basis many of my funds have returned to positive territory.
Allocation funds that I own that are positive YTD - PRWCX, VGSTX, VWINX - each roughly 2% positive
Allocation fund that is still negative - BRUFX - down 2%
Some other fund in the red YTD:
FRIFX - down 11% (riskier than I imagined)
THOPX - down 7.3% (Poor performance for what I consider a cash like fund)
FMIJX - down 16.8% (has had some recent big up days) - Toe hold
VMVFX - down 10.4% (this has been a surprise to me...very volatile recently)
POAGX - down 0.5% (Always surprises)
VHCOX - down 3.2%
VWO / VEIEX - down 9.3% - Toe Hold
Some funds in the black YTD:
VGHCX - up 3.9%
PRHSX - up 5.6%
FSRPX - up 11.4% (retail choices in this fund are far from dead)
FSMEX - up 2.6% (medical device companies have been good past performers)
PRMTX - up 19.95% (its recent DD was similar to VWINX, but its 100% Media and Tech)
PRGSX - up 8.6% (showing strong momentum from the bottom)
PRNHX - up 16.9% (wish...need to own more)
PRIDX - up 1.8% - Toe Hold
Cash like Funds YTD:
VFISX - up 3.3%
PRWBX - up 2.5%
PTIAX - up 0.1%
I try to identify and understand the downside risk (beta) in my holdings and getting more practice than I wish for. It is probably a more important dynamic than upside potential (alpha). Downside risk either bruises, cuts, or maims your portfolio. I'm trying to minimize the cutting and the maiming.
Anything surprising you in your portfolio?

Demand is bouncing back in China and stimulus packages being unleashed across the developed world promise to transform the long-term outlook -- particularly with spending on copper-intensive green energy infrastructure. The coronavirus has also disrupted mines and delayed new builds, throttling current and future supply.
“Copper is coming out of this crisis differently,” Bintas said by phone from Geneva. “When lockdowns were eased and people started to return to work, we were surprised to see our customers not only taking deliveries of volumes they’d already bought, but requesting more to cover themselves in case there were any further disruptions to supply.”

https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-10/new-king-of-copper-trading-sees-demand-coming-back-even-stronger?sref=g4EhC0E7
Do investors see GLFOX (Infrastructure funds ), VGPMX (Natural Resources/Precious Metals) funds and even VWO (VEIEX) (which seems to move when PMs move up & down with NR/PM) working again?
Next stimulus bill should include infrastructure projects.
Pro's & Cons for infrastructure stimulus:
case-against-infrastructure-stimulus
stimulus-checks-infrastructure-phase-four

A Muni-Bond Fund That Lets You Sleep at Night
By Debbie Carlson
June 10, 2020 7:00 am ET
Duane McAllister in Milwaukee.
https://www.google.com/search?q=A+Muni-Bond+Fund+That+Lets+You+Sleep+at+Night
By+Debbie+Carlson&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8
/During his childhood, his family owned a construction company in northwest Illinois that installed water mains and constructed highways—the exact type of projects he now invests in as the senior portfolio manager for the $1.1 billion Baird Short-Term Municipal Bond fund (ticker: BTMSX). His first job after graduating in 1989 with a bachelor’s degree in finance from Northern Illinois University was with Northern Trust’s muni-bond team. At the time, he.../
https://www.google.com/search?q=BTMSX&oq=BTMSX&aqs=chrome..69i57j0.1288j0j7&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8
Btmsx
Will keep it on watch list

@Baseball_Fan, Thanks for the shout-out. David mentioned Rondure Funds in his February, 2019
Commentary. Just a bit here: “Rondure Global Advisors is newer investment adviser which is Grandeur Peak’s partner. Rondure, like Grandeur Peak, was launched by an alumna of the Wasatch Funds,” https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2019/02/as-the-world-turns-rondure-global-gains/
Global equity funds are pretty far outside my normal investment zone. But I am now beginning to shade a bit more in that direction, since funds holding fixed income (like traditional balanced funds) are at a real disadvantage in this low rate environment. Also, I’ve been trying to get out of the U.S. (figuratively and literally) as I think we’re headed for a lot of chaos as November approaches - markets might not like it. U.S. appears “bubbly” as well.
My first foray into any pure equity fund in many years was into Price’s developed foreign markets index fund, PIEQX, which I picked up in March and have already reduced by 30 or 40%. While it hasn’t leaped very far, all my other stuff has, and this one is the easiest to cut back on as its a spec position and not part of my normal allocation. It’s not a high octane fund by any measure. But the ER of .40 is appealing and TRP - much as I like them - have never excelled in the international arena. Past experience leads me to believe that, as international funds go, this one is relatively docile.
You mention ROSOX. Let’s take a look. ER 1.10% isn’t bad for an actively managed international fund. Probably about average. Holdings: 60% Europe, 30% Asia - almost all of that in Japan. (Looks quite a bit like the index fund I own.) ROSOX is only 3 years old. That would normally chase me away - but it appears from David’s commentary that the managers are well experienced. Close call. I’d feel better with a fund that had been around at least 10 years. Better chance of having a stable investor base. The fund has already jumped about 10% from its March low. Not as cheap as it was than. (Woulda, coulda, shoulda.) Lipper gives it a 5 in “preservation.” That’s a coveted rating, as international funds tend to be more volatile than their domestic brethren. Not a bad choice. I’d perhaps look around a bit more before deciding.
Now, will folks more familiar with international equity funds and / or Rondure please chime in?

https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/stocks-soar-by-most-in-eight-years-on-signs-of-growth-em-review
EM Review: Stocks Soared by Most in 8 Years on Signs of Growth
Bloomberg News Lilian Karunungan, Netty Ismail and Justin Villamil
June 5, 2020 4:28 PM EDT
Last Updated June 8, 2020 1:36 AM EDT
/(Bloomberg) — Emerging-market stocks posted their biggest gains in more than eight years last week as investors looked past U.S.-China tensions and protests in America to focus on the rolling back of economic lockdowns. Better-than-expected U.S. jobs data on Friday helped solidify the new-found optimism over economic growth. Developing-nation currencies posted their biggest weekly advance since March 2016./
What are your favorite em funds or etf
We have adding/Dca continously to Vwo and Vt past few weeks.

I'm thinking that some confuse amount invested with tax cost basis.
Amount invested is simply what is paid out of pocket to purchase. While cost basis is made up of purchase amount plus any dividends and capital gains used to buy additional shares. At times amount invested and cost basis will be the same amount if one takes all distributions in cash, as I do, with no reinvestment of capital gains and dividends going back into the fund.
My broker provided statements reflect amount invested, cost basis, along with total return for each asset held. In this way, I know where I stand from an amount invested and cost analysis along with total return performance for each asset held from the date of purchase. Total return performance is also provided for the account.
I've got a few funds that are back of what I paid for them (mostly bond funds) but for the time held they are reflecting a positive total return. If sold, I could book a slight tax loss but also find joy in knowing I made money in them over the years held. I plan on keeping them as they are still producing a good income stream. In fact, some have paid out more money to me through the years owned than my cost of purchase. These payouts along with my growth of principal are what I call the organic growth of my money.
I have found that by holding my mutual funds for an extended period of time affords me the organic growth on my money that I seek. Plus, when you trade around the edges, as I have done, adds a little more growth to the portfolio as well. In addition, I have found that buying during the pullbacks generally offers good upward opportunity over buying during a fully valued market.
So, what is there not to understand about the power of dividends and how they help grow principal?

All ratings have been updated on MFO Premium site, including MultiSearch, Great Owls, Fund Alarm (Three Alarm and Honor Roll), Averages, Dashboard of Profiled Funds, and Fund Family Scorecard. The site now includes several analysis tools, including Correlation, Rolling Averages, Trend, Ferguson Metrics, Calendar Year and Period Performance.
Here link to summary:
https://www.member.mfopremium.com/2020/06/09/rebound-continues-mfo-ratings-updated-through-may-2020/

Hi, guys.
This was a flagged discussion. The argument was that apkmetro plagiarized a Wall Street Journal article with only the sort of tweaks that a college sophomore could imagine getting away with. As I checked their homepage, their business model appears to depend on copying stuff from behind paywalls and posted tweaked versions.
It's pretty bad. I'd prefer we not associate with, much less encourage, them.
That said, johnN is pointing us to an article that makes valuable points, as the Journal often does. My compromise with my conscience is to share (a) the link to the legit story, (b) the intro paragraph and (c) the point of the article.
Alex Edmans, Why Many People Misunderstand Dividends, and the Damage This Does https://wsj.com/articles/why-many-people-misunderstand-dividends-and-the-damage-this-does-11591454292, Wall Street Journal, 7 June 2020.
Dr. Edmans is a professor of finance at London Business School.

Over the past year, voices across the corporate and political spectrum have argued that companies are beholden to all stakeholders, not just shareholders. And indeed, many companies are recognizing these responsibilities in the current pandemic, with several paying furloughed workers and donating products. Investors have largely supported those efforts. But when it comes to corporate responsibility, there’s one red line that many shareholders say should never be crossed: the dividend.

• companies are so manic about protecting their dividend that they're willing to cut workers in order to preserve it
  
• dividends don't benefit investors because they're simply pulling money out of the company and lowering its share price
  
• stock buybacks are different, and better, because buybacks are more flexible. You can execute them when it makes sense (Snowball laughs out loud given the transparent record of buying back overvalued shares in order to prop them up) and skip other years. Dividends are sort of a permanent entitlement.
  
• in consequence, companies do stupid things to guard the dividend, investors overpay for stocks offering a dividend (you can lose 2-4% per annum in total returns) and it encourages investor complacency because they see dividend-payers are "buy it and forget it" stocks.
  
• solutions? Have reporting services focus on total return, not share price appreciation, stats and have companies treat all future dividends as "special dividends," that is, as one time payouts that will be resumed if and only if economic circumstances justify it.

David, with thanks to johnN

@hank and all,
What are your thoughts on the Rondure Funds...mgr has good experience, stock picks based on Ev/Ebit, low debt levels, return on equity, etc...looks for "compounders" similar as to the team at AKRE...seems reasonable to me, although in this market environment maybe not enough of "bro-investing stock picks in her funds, i.e., just put your money down and go for it, high risk, high return"...ROSOX, Rondure Overseas Fund
I never understood investing my hard earned capital that invests in companies in parts of the world that I couldn't even pick out on a map with who knows what kind of accounting practices...maybe that says more about me and my inclination to own what I know and my appreciation for rule of law, understandable accounting practices etc...
Best Regards to All,
Baseball Fan

probably already posted, but in case not
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-09/everywhere-you-look-under-surging-stocks-is-fervid-retail-buying

A “trigger point” for electric cars will occur once they overtake gasoline-powered vehicles around 2030-2035, Zeng said. That view is more ambitious than that of researchers such as BNEF, which expects the shift to take place a few years later.
CATL, which is adding a production facility in Germany, is set to make more than 70% of batteries required by BMW, an early customer, Zeng said. CATL also works with Volkswagen’s Audi unit and is cooperating with Porsche, he said.

a-million-mile-battery-from-china-could-power-your-electric-car

https://www.forbes.com/sites/moneyshow/2020/06/08/where-to-invest-now-10-experts-share-some-favorite-ideas/#14faaad76eb8
Several mf managers give good recommendations and ideas what to consider buying next
They also have web seminars in june10_12
https://online.moneyshow.com/june-2020/?scode=050428

Barron’s often features excerpted clips of investment advice from various forecasters. The following comes from this week’s magazine. I don’t know anything about the Aden forecast. The message provides food for thought. Will be interesting in the following months to see how correct they were. (No link / Transcribed from subscription)
Steer Clear of Bonds The Aden Forecast: Money, Metals, Markets adenforecast.com
”June 4: Interestingly, interest rates are starting to rise. The 30-year yield is leading the way. It’s above its 15-week moving average, at a three month high, and the 10-year yield is following. We’ve been showing you how oversold interest rates have been, which means they’re poised to head even higher, especially now that the rise is getting underway. This is going to coincide with an ongoing drop in bond prices, so continue to steer clear of all bonds for now.” *
Barron’s June 8, 2020 (By Mary Anne and Pamela Aden)
*There was additional short commentary on action in the U.S. Dollar index. It wasn’t directly related to the above, so I didn’t include it.

the great neil irwin concurs in and substantiates the gloom
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/06/upshot/coronavirus-economic-crisis.html

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/wall-street-next-week-202006071602
Wall Street next week
ANALYSIS | Published Jun 07, 2020 16:02 (+00:00)
1. Markets cannot go higher on valid fundamentals
We believe the short squeeze (soon) over and any good news MORE THAN built into markets. We also believe this is a time to be defensive rather than FOMO. Going forward economic activity caused by the pandemic should bottom out and a real recovery will happen, but one that is slow going and uneven. We see a U US economic recovery but stock markets NOT V, L or U but W.
There is very high risk in the market now until late Summer.
IT IS TIME TO PROTECT/EXIT especially above 3150 SPX.
POST SUMMER INVESTMENTS SHOULD BE TARGETED FOR A POST COVID-19 WORLD
Couple fundamental points for next wk

From The Dallas Morning News. Yes I'm one of those always believing there's hope out there.
"Just say it, said Randall Stephenson: “We got a problem.”
The CEO of AT&T, like many business leaders, went public last week with his disgust about racism and violence in America. If the words sound familiar, maybe it’s because Stephenson used almost the exact language four years ago in the wake of police killings in downtown Dallas.
In 2016, he made national news by acknowledging the problem of racism and urging employees to not just be tolerant. “Move into uncomfortable territory,” he said, and really confront the issue of race."
What has to happen now

I like to track DODBX, instead. Balanced. Stocks AND bonds. My numbers are from Morningstar. It sits today at 80th percentile among peers. But in real terms, down for 2020 now by just -3.77%. Given the recent uptrend, I'd say it will climb out and produce profit, as well as yield: currently at 2.57%. Looking at percentile rankings going back several, maybe a handful of years, there are some years where it underperformed peers, but most years are good to excellent. It is less consistently wonderful than PRWCX, but PRWCX is still CLOSED.
Back in 2010, reorienting a friend (and wife's) money, my intent was to spread the money out, to diversify. So, they own both DODBX and PRWCX, still, 10 years on. I guess you just can't have EVERYTHING. Life is like that. And, like me, they are investors, not traders. Trading just seems too much like real WORK!