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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • CHALLENGE! Ideas for 5 fund portfolio, 8% return, minimum drawdown going forward
    I think replacing VLSIX with RLSFX may help with the "minimum drawdown" aspect, at least based on their short-term history.
    I replaced VLSIX with RLSFX and the results were worse for performance and SD. See (link)
  • CHALLENGE! Ideas for 5 fund portfolio, 8% return, minimum drawdown going forward
    Since 01/2019, the above funds made 8.5% + SD=2. See (link)
    VLSIX is the one that limits it.
    But I can do even better with BIL=40% + IQDAX=30% + VLSIX=30% and make 12.6% + SD=3.55(still low)
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    image

    Observations for one month as of 10/30/2020:

    October was not a good month for stocks and most bonds (Interest rates were up). High rated bonds were down for 1 and 3 months. The best bond categories have been Multi+Non Trad.
    Multi: 0.1% for the month but securitized shined again(IOFIX,DHEAX). HOBIX with 1%.
    Uncontrain/Nontrad: +0.2 for the month. Securitized(JASVX) did better at 0.8%
    HY Munis: (-0.3) for the month but BSNIX(new fund from Baird) has done better all year.
    High Rated Bonds: (-0.3%) for the month. The index BND -0.56%
    Bank loans: Flat but EIFAX +0.3%.
    HY+EM: HY 0.25 and EM= +0.1 for the month and this time no correlation to stocks.
    Corp: -0.2% for the month. PIGIX -0.5%.
    SP500(SPY) Down month at -2.5, YTD=2.9%.
    PCI CEF (-5.1%) for the month. YTD still at -18.1%
    My own portfolio
    I started the month with IOFIX+JASVX (both securitized) + NHMAX(HY Muni). Early in the month sold NHMAX and bought HOBIX. It’s pretty obvious that funds loaded with securitized bonds are doing well. HOBIX continues to have good performance for 1-3 months. It was another good month for me, even last week I made 0.1%.
    In the last week of October I sold most of my portfolio for the third time this year. When VIX goes above 30-35 and both stocks+most bonds categories are going down it’s a good sign for me to sell. Since I retired in 2018 I don’t see any reason to be invested when markets crash. I can be out until markets look better. Sure, sometimes it’s just a false alarm but I rather be out. It works well with my trading style and not recommended for anybody else.

    Diversification
    didn’t help you much in October. SPY down -2.5%, FSPSX(International index) -4%, BND -0.56%
  • Kellner Merger Fund to be reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027596/000089418920008824/kellner497e10302020.htm
    497 1 kellner497e10302020.htm 497
    Filed Pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    1933 Act File No. 333-17391
    1940 Act File No. 811-07959
    Kellner Merger Fund
    Investor Class GAKAX
    Institutional Class GAKIX
    A series of Advisors Series Trust (the “Trust”)
    Supplement dated October 30, 2020 to the Prospectus
    and Statement of Additional Information, each dated April 30, 2020
    At the request of Kellner Capital Management (“Kellner”), the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Advisors Series Trust (“AST”) has reviewed information relating to Kellner’s request to reorganize the Kellner Merger Fund (the “Target Fund”) into the AXS Merger Fund, a new fund (the “Acquiring Fund”) that will be created as a series of Investment Managers Series Trust II (the “Reorganization”). The Acquiring Fund will have the same investment objective and substantially similar strategies and policies as the Target Fund. The Reorganization will be structured as a tax-free reorganization for federal tax purposes and is subject to a number of conditions, including the receipt of approval by the shareholders of the Target Fund.
    The proposed Reorganization will result in a change in your Fund’s management arrangements. AXS Investments LLC (“AXS”) will serve as the new investment advisor to the Acquiring Fund and Kellner will serve as sub-advisor with the same portfolio managers as for the Target Fund responsible for day-to-day management of the Acquiring Fund. There will also be no change in advisory fees for the Acquiring Fund compared to the Target Fund. The Acquiring Fund will be overseen by a different Board of Trustees as it will not be a part of AST, but will instead be part of Investment Managers Series Trust II. The Acquiring Fund will have different service providers than the Target Fund.
    Based on the material provided to the Board, the Board considered the Agreement and Plan of Reorganization at a meeting held on October 19, 2020 and thereafter approved the Reorganization on October 23, 2020, subject to the approval of the Acquired Fund’s shareholders. The Agreement and Plan of Reorganization provides for an exchange of shares of the Target Fund for shares of the Acquiring Fund, which would be distributed pro rata by the Acquiring Fund to the holders of the shares of such class in complete liquidation of the Target Fund, and the Acquiring Fund’s assumption of all liabilities of the Target Fund. Shareholders of the Target Fund will receive shares of the Acquiring Fund equal in value to the shares of the Target Fund held by the shareholders prior to the Reorganization.
    More detailed information about the Reorganization and the changes that will result from the Reorganization will be provided in a proxy statement that is expected to be sent to shareholders in the coming weeks. When you receive your proxy statement, please review it and cast your vote to avoid any future solicitations.
    * * * * * * * * * *
    Please retain this Supplement with the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information.
  • 2020 Challenge - participants
    Alright, here's mine. Oct. 30th, 2020:
    Taxable: PTIAX -.02 cents, or -0.09% ........... YTD: +3.34%
    IRAs:
    Bruce BRUFX: -$3.39 or -0.57% YTD -0.11%
    PRWCX -.02 cents or -0.06% +6.57%
    PRSNX -.01 cent or -0.09% +4.51%
    PRIDX -$1.02 or -1.26% +16.54
    PRDSX -.45 cents or -1.09% +2.87%
    RPSIX -.02 cents or -0.16% +0.11%
    Way too much work to do weekly or monthly performance. The lot of them are down quite a bit, just since last week or so. Covid raging, earnings, other junk?
  • ECB hints at more stimulus in December as new coronavirus lockdowns are imposed
    We have responded very promptly, very appropriately, very heavily, some would say, to the first wave that hit the euro area economies. We have done it for the first wave; we will do it again for the second wave,” Lagarde said.
    https://cnbc.com/2020/10/29/ecb-meeting-october-2020-.html
  • 2020 Challenge - participants
    Well here we are at the end of another dreadful month. Had too many of these kinds of months this year. October didn't start to bad but finishing horribly for me.
    I'm trying something different for the finish of the year. I plan to post results on M* as usual and also Armchairinvesting and Mutual Fund observer. While we all know the downside of M* discussion forum (such as unable to edit post or easily get to the last page of a thread/topic) we don't know the downside of the other forums. Armchairinvesting doesn't automatically give one notifications of post to a thread/topic or allow ability of to selectively remove oneself from notifications for a thread/topic. I have created an ID for Mutual Fund Observer but have not attempted a post there yet.
    So get your results in at the end of today's close. Feel free to post on one or all three. If nothing else its giving me something to do. I am so bored with our self isolation. When will it ever end?
    Rich
  • Tom Madell, PhD Mutual Fund/ETF Research Newsletter
    Key Points:
    ° Over the last 25 years, exceptionally outstanding fund performance nearly across the board was followed 5 years later by poor performance; this happened beginning in 2000, 2007, and 2014.
    ° When only a small number of funds excelled after the 2007-09 bear market, all were doing poorly by 5 years later.
    ° In early 2015, funds that were previously among the biggest performance winners suffered sharp dropoffs by 2020; the table below shows these funds and how badly they wound up doing.
    ° If these trends continue, the funds I list doing unusually well right now may not be your best choices for the next 5 years.
    November Edition
  • Not Your Girlfriend's SPACs
    What's a SPAC?
    A special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) is a company with no commercial operations that is formed strictly to raise capital through an initial public offering (IPO) for the purpose of acquiring an existing company. Also known as "blank check companies," SPACs have been around for decades. In recent years, they've gone mainstream, attracting big-name underwriters and investors and raising a record amount of IPO money in 2019. In 2020, more than 50 SPACs have been formed in the U.S., as of the beginning of August, raising some $21.5 billion.
    https://investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp
    Investments in SPACs ETFs and BDCs:

  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    I sold almost everything. My portfolio lost just -0.1% from its last top.

    But you must still have taken the hit yesterday in the downdraft? How can you be sure you will buy back in at a better price than you sold? How long are you willing to be out of the market? To each his own, but given that you're almost all in bond funds (I think) how much can really be gained by market timing, even if you mostly guess right on your buys and sells? Just wondering, not criticizing,
    My bond funds didn't take a hit. I had IOFIX,JASVX and HOBIX.
    Below are my portfolio numbers as of yesterday from Schwab
    YTD performance is 14.9%.
    3 year average annually = 10.13%...SD(volatility)=2.16
    In 2018 I lost less than 1% in Q4.
    In 2020 I sold most of my funds in late Feb and all early in March (documented in this thread)
    The key is good timing in/out + using momentum + not your usual funds + several times per year I trade riskier stuff (stocks, ETFs, CEFs, GLD, whatever) for hours-days based on technical analysis.
  • Chuck Akre
    Greg Ostedgaard, president of Financial Professionals, Inc., and an MFO reader was on a conference call with Chuck Akre and the Akre Focus (AKREX) folks today. In that case, they announced that Mr. Akre is stepping away from day-to-day management at the end of December.
    The Akre folks have been prepping for this day for years, and Mr. Akre seems comfortable that he's leaving his shareholders in good hands. I've attached our succession story, from February, for what interest it holds.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2020/03/manager-changes-february-2020/
    David
  • The Best Taxable-Bond Funds -- M*
    Some slightly contrarian contextual takes here, of high-level interest perhaps:
    https://humbledollar.com/2020/10/follow-the-fed/
    Interesting article
    1)Employment: has nothing to do with stocks. Disregard.
    2+5)Inflation + Plan for higher inflation.: I don't see any inflation coming soon. Still high unemployment, Covid, big tech improve processes, globalization. Disregard
    3)Expect low yields. Of course, the Fed told us that
    4)Favor the middle. intermediate term bonds are where you should be long term. Disregard
    6)Rethink asset location: Same old narrative. Not all bonds are treasuries. Example: PTIAX,PIMIX pay about 4% annually.
    6)Stay flexible. Keep your style and why disregard. If you are buy and hold investor and it worked for you changing isn't your strength. I'm a trader for about 20 years and why flexibility works for me.
    7)Avoid gold. Sure. Most should avoid other stuff such as CEFs, risk parity and other exotic funds. KISS. Use only several funds, Core funds: wide indexes, explore funds: a few managed.
  • The Best Taxable-Bond Funds -- M*
    Some slightly contrarian contextual takes here, of high-level interest perhaps:
    https://humbledollar.com/2020/10/follow-the-fed/
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    VIX is one of my main criteria based on daily movements.
    VIX has been elevated since early September, it finally broke above 30 and that's not a good sign.
    I use other criteria relate only to my goals (low volatility and never lose more than 3% from any last top). Making 2.5 times more in 2020 than my goals and I'm fine sitting out for days.
    Interest rates are inching higher since early August, they are lower for several days but I think the 10 year treasury may go higher, maybe 0.9-1%
  • The Best Taxable-Bond Funds -- M*
    First, I’m not trying to tout any fund. Most of my “wealth” rests with TRP for better or worse. And, heaven knows their fixed income funds don’t always shine. With munis, I didn’t see any great options to tell the truth. I do think PRIHX has potential. At this juncture, I like shorter duration bonds (lower potential gain but less interest rate risk).
    “ ... its below average returns. This in turn is likely because it has one of the shortest durations of any high yield muni fund.” -
    Yes - (using Yahoo) PRIHX has a duration of 4.34 years vs 7.07 years for the category average. What I want. Of course, it’s being measured against more aggressive competitors. I suspect this is a major problem in most bond rating efforts.
    I don’t follow M*, but watching the Lipper scorecard, bond funds’ fortunes tend to wax and wane depending on the climate. ER - ISTM is the greatest predictor of success, all other factors being roughly equal.
    “I don't see anything unwanted about Roth distributions.” -
    Ahh ... Mine were all converted during retirement. There was a price paid in paying the tax as well as the hassle. To me the Roth is “the gift that keeps on giving”. All your gains remain tax free. Convert at the right time (ie: early ‘09) or goose the returns with a few good speculative plays and those untaxed gains can be considerable. Meanwhile, with a traditional IRA, not just your original (untaxed) contributions, but also all your gains - even those you’re compiling today - stand to be taxed as ordinary income at withdrawal.
    Not against pulling from the Roth. But considering the trouble expended in doing the conversions and the nice tax treatment, would rather save for a rainy day.
  • The Best Taxable-Bond Funds -- M*
    Out of tax considerations I also decided to take a modest 2020 distribution from the Traditional side, even though that was not required in 2020. Didn’t need the money. So it went into Price’s PRIHX - a “limited term“ HY muni fund that I think is probably a better fund than M* and the others currently rate it. ... As to the tax considerations, I’d rather write the IRS a check next April 15 than have to wait in line for a tax refund. Building up the non-IRA assets may prevent having to take an unwanted withdrawal from the Roth someday
    I have an inherited Roth that requires me to take unwanted distributions. The only reason why I don't want those distributions is that after sticking the money into a taxable account all the future earnings are taxable. Aside from moving money out of a tax-sheltered account, I don't see anything unwanted about Roth distributions.
    It's a different question when comparing T-IRAs and Roths. There are several reasons for keeping at least some money in a T-IRA (QCDs, lower tax bracket for heirs, leave to charity, etc.) But given a choice between adding eligible money to a Roth or leaving it in a taxable account, I'm not aware of a reason to keep it in a taxable account. So I'm not clear on your thinking here.
    The muni bond fund does let you escape federal taxes (it's still substantially subject to state taxes). However that comes at a cost - muni bond yields are less than taxable bond yields (which would be tax free in a Roth).
    For example (this is just the first one I picked, not necessarily the best comp), RPIHX is a taxable junk bond fund with a duration of 3.58 years and an unsubsidized SEC yield of 4.94% (subsidized is 5.08%). PRIHX is a muni junk bond fund with a duration of 4.44 years and an unsubsidized SEC yield of 1.40% (subsidized is 1.84%)
    Though most multi-sector funds don't hold equity worth mentioning (5%+), about 1/8 of the nearly 100 funds do. They can get a fair amount in dividends plus a small growth kicker, but at the expense of higher volatility.
    When Kathleen Gaffney left Loomis Sayles, it seemed she tried to outdo her mentor Dan Fuss at LSBDX by upping the equity to 20% in Eaton Vance Bond (EVBAX). That resulted in a fund even more volatile than LSBDX.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/23855/wealthtrack-preview-guest-kathleen-gaffney-manager-eaton-vance-bond-fund
    PRIHX appears to merit a 2* rating because of its below average returns. This in turn is likely because it has one of the shortest durations of any high yield muni fund. A problem with M*'s ranking of junk bond funds is that it groups funds together regardless of duration - no short term, intermediate term, long term breakdown. There are only five muni high junk bond funds with durations under five years. Four have 2 stars; only ISHYX which has done slightly better, has a 3* rating.
  • TBGVX-PRCNX-HEFA_EFA
    Thanks For your replies @msf and @Vegomatic. I am not at all familiar with portfolio Visualizer... I will dig in and try to learn. I am primarily looking at international multi cap - relying on the managers to choose the best spot moving forward on map size. VDIGX and VIG,SCHD are both of interest, I am screening them also - but not as replacement for international allocation . According to MFO Premium screen HEFA & Prcnx are good candidates - both lower MAXDD ( primary importance) .TBGVX was great for a long time - (still lower volatility and standard deviation - but zip on the upside and the recovery ) but of late has even underperformed other hedged funds, so it cant be just due to the hedging. I am looking at some large cap gains in my taxable account - so I sold it to harvest the loss - I can of course get back in after 31 days - all advice welcome - many thanks
  • The Best Taxable-Bond Funds -- M*
    I think "Best" is only relevant to each individual investors portfolio criteria for what purpose/role an individual investor is attempting to fill in their portfolio. Portfolio criteria can vary widely, based on age, risk metrics, total return metrics, etc.
    Yeah - That was my reaction as well. While an interesting discussion here, the topic is a little “nuts-o” when you think about it. The topic narrows it down only to “taxable” bond funds. :)
    The chart is cool and gets specific. I’ll confess to generally being fog-bound with regards to bond funds anyhow. RPISX is probably listed as a bond fund, but I beg to disagree owing to its 5-25% allowable weighting in an equity fund. Also, its “bond” holdings, ranging from EM to Treasuries are so diverse as to demand a more specific moniker than simply “bond fund.”
    Another consideration in the overall equation here: Some investors find value in sticking with only one or a few houses. In that case, they may be “comfy“ in settling for only “third best” or “fifth best” fund in any particular category of fund. And, as has no doubt already been mentioned, various economic forces at work at any one time can greatly lend favor to or create havoc for virtually any bond fund, regardless of name, management or style.
    FWIW - I closed out long held RPSIX today. Not only has it stunk up the joint in recent years, but its diverse holdings no longer fill my perceived portfolio needs. I’d rather today hold generally short term and / or high quality bond holdings as a stabilizing influence in the portfolio rather than seeking growth or high income with such a broadly diverse “income“ fund. The small remaining amount was moved into their .25% ER index bond fund PBDIX, which I’ve held for about a year. Why bonds over cash? IMHO they would act more like a hedge against rapidly falling equity prices - if only temporarily.
    Out of tax considerations I also decided to take a modest 2020 distribution from the Traditional side, even though that was not required in 2020. Didn’t need the money. So it went into Price’s PRIHX - a “limited term“ HY muni fund that I think is probably a better fund than M* and the others currently rate it. It appears almost stable enough to use as a cash alternative (not recommended however).
    Part of my thinking on munis - No matter which side wins the election, municipalities and states will eventually get some federal help. (But still waiting for my official “Oracle“ license to arrive in the mail.) :) As to the tax considerations, I’d rather write the IRS a check next April 15 than have to wait in line for a tax refund. Building up the non-IRA assets may prevent having to take an unwanted withdrawal from the Roth someday (which is now near 70% of invested assets).