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order-disorder-disruptive-eventsIt seems in this exciting new territory for the S&P 500, stock prices are reacting more to changes in the expected rate of growth of the Fed's balance sheet than they are to changes in the expected rate of growth of the S&P 500's underlying dividends per share.
How long that might last is anyone's guess. The only thing we know for certain is that eventually, all periods of relative order, disorder, disruptive events, or bubbles in the stock market come to an end. It's only ever a question of when.
So far, all the government stimulus has provided some support for the global economy. But the virus is still out there, and so are the recessionary forces. As a result, price inflation remains subdued even though much of the ballooning fiscal deficits are being financed by central banks’ purchases of government securities, which MMTers also support. In Kelton’s dreamland, that’s a perfect outcome, because she and her merry band of arm-linked MMTers believe that the only limit on deficit-financed government spending is price inflation. Sure enough, the US government has responded precisely as she advocates, producing one stimulus program after another. Another one is imminent, sized to the tune of $1.0 trillion, which will most likely cause the Congressional Budget Office to raise its current fiscal 2020 budget deficit estimate from $3.7 trillion to $4.7 trillion
If you want only funds that never lost money then performance could lag badly. PFNIX 10 years average annually is only 2% and that's a dismal bond performance.One reason maybe that AVEFX ''flies under the radar'' is it is not available at Fidelity or Schwab no load/NTF.
In 2020 peak to trough AVEFX lost about 10% while FPINX lost only about 2%.
AVEFX has 20% in stocks FPINX < 1%
Vanguard VASIX is a better choice than AVEFX. See (chart). VASIX ER=0.11%. It has better performance and SD(volatility) is close.
There may well be better choices for this TYPE of fund, but the criteria I was focusing on was never a down year. VASIX has had two, including down 10.53% in 2008. Not so pretty. AVEFX has an unbroken streak during its existence dating back to 2004.
There may well be better choices for this TYPE of fund, but the criteria I was focusing on was never a down year. VASIX has had two, including down 10.53% in 2008. Not so pretty. AVEFX has an unbroken streak during its existence dating back to 2004.One reason maybe that AVEFX ''flies under the radar'' is it is not available at Fidelity or Schwab no load/NTF.
In 2020 peak to trough AVEFX lost about 10% while FPINX lost only about 2%.
AVEFX has 20% in stocks FPINX < 1%
Vanguard VASIX is a better choice than AVEFX. See (chart). VASIX ER=0.11%. It has better performance and SD(volatility) is close.
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