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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Markets Bounce on Powell‘s Jackson Hole Speech - Changes Signaled
    Date of Speech: August 27, 2020
    - Fed will target 2% inflation rate on average, in softening of policy
    - Fed will also monitor shortfalls in unemployment rate, with less concern about overshoots
    - No mention of forward guidance
    - Speech and statement suggest rate hikes are a long way off
    - Stocks and gold rise, dollar falls slightly
    Above loosely excerpted from: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/08/27/markets-live-latest-coronavirus-news-pound-euro-ftse-100/
    (Ignore the time stamps. That’s London time.)
  • GLD: Next Buying Opportunity In About 6 Weeks' Time
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4371007-gld-next-buying-opportunity-in-6-weeks-time
    GLD: Next Buying Opportunity In About 6 Weeks' Time
    Aug. 26, 2020 10:35 PMSPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)
    Summary
    Gold is trying to confirm its daily cycle low.
    We are on week 24 of the intermediate cycle.
    The momentum of the yearly cycle and 8-year cycle should mean we have a couple of years left in this bull market.
    We did added more gold recently [both physicals gold silvers also from AMPEX.COM and GLD]. think could be more gas left in the tank especially Feds keep pumping more money and central banks around the world keep borrowing to keep their economies afloat.
  • The So-Called 'Buffett Indicator' Hits All-Time High
    Checking up on a famous indicator.......
    The metric earned its nickname after Buffett once said it's “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” The Buffett indicator is calculated by dividing the total value of all stocks in the U.S. market and by the gross domestic product of the U.S. Traders typically use the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index as a measure of total U.S. market cap.
    Historically, the Buffett indicator average has been between 93% and 114%. The ratio peaked at 107.5% at the peak of the housing bubble in 2007 and at 139.5% during the dot-com bubble in 2000. In 2020, the Buffett indicator has spiked to new all-time highs of 182.7%, and it continues to climb higher with each new stock market high.
    Benzinga’s Take: Even if the stock market is overvalued, it doesn’t mean a sell-off is imminent. However, it does mean that investors should keep that stretched valuation in mind when assessing risk and balancing a portfolio accordingly.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/called-buffett-indicator-hits-time-211520943.html
  • The stock market’s rebound is nowhere near over, and midcap exposure is probably what you need
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-markets-rebound-is-nowhere-near-over-and-mid-cap-exposure-is-probably-what-you-need-2020-08-26
    The stock market’s rebound is nowhere near over, and midcap exposure is probably what you need
    Published: Aug. 26, 2020 at 3:38 p.m. ET
    Research into stock-market disruptions and recoveries shows conventional wisdom about large-cap stocks is wrong
    Hello
    Any other mid cap recommendations funds you folks have
    (Besides DGIFX) to hold mid long terms
    Thank you
    Regards
  • Things that make you go "hmmmm"
    DODFX off 13.37% this year. Lipper ranks it at the bottom (1/5) in total return, capital preservation, tax efficiency and consistency . (But 5 in expenses ). M* gives it a 3. I know some smart people that own and like it. All I can make out is that it’s 30% invested in financials. That’s even more than for DODGX. I’d probably take a spec on it, but only after a bigger pullback.
    And check out TCELX - 9 months old. Up nearly 40% YTD. (Did we call that one right last December?)
  • Palm Valley Capital at TD Ameritrade
    Hi, guys.
    For what interest it holds, Palm Valley Capital is now available through TD Ameritrade. I assume that it will be added to the Schwab list soon, given the acquisition of TD by Schwab. The advisor is still working on Fidelity.
    $11.7 million, with modest but steady inflows. 1.27% e.r. The managers have between $100-500,000 in, each, plus their stake in the adviser.
    72% cash and up 15% YTD, 16.4% over the TTM. Depending on whether you consider it small value or small core, it's beating its peers by 25 - 30% YTD. It has the second highest returns YTD for either group.
    Small core is led by Aperture Discovery Equity (ADISX), a fund with a record of less than a year which is advised by the US branch of a fairly large UK adviser. It's a long/short small cap fund that reportedly it booked a 60% gain in Q2. High expenses, negligible investment minimum with a manager from the private investment world; most recently, Diker Investments LLC, a small- and micro-cap specialist.
    Small value is led by NorthStar Micro Cap (NSMVX), a hedge fund that converted about 10 years ago. We profiled their dividend fund last year. Neither Aperture nor North Star holds much cash.
    I'll move some of my TD cash into Palm Valley today. I know that Mr. Cinnamond's discipline will disappoint then infuriate investors after small caps have had an extended run and are getting, by his lights, frothy, but I'm not sure that's an immediate concern.
    For what interest that holds,
    David
  • Investors are ‘running in complete blindness right now,’ economist says
    Short read that hits on several major themes. It's not so clear to me the Fed's bag of tricks is empty.....
    “In the 30 years I have been an economist we have never had this much uncertainty about the effects of the shutdowns, the future of the shutdowns because of the pandemic, the policy response and people’s fear in a sense,” Erik Nielsen, group chief economist at UniCredit, told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe.
    “We are running in complete blindness right now, there is no way of being confident about the outlook,” he said.
    “Central banks are doing everything they can…but they cannot solve the problem,” he said.
    “What we need is fiscal policy and then we need news on the pandemic that things are coming back to normal,” Nielsen said.
    https://cnbc.com/2020/08/26/investors-are-running-in-complete-blindness-right-now-economist-says.html
  • Things that make you go "hmmmm"

    If I make a surprising 25-50% on a stock in 2-3 months, especially if it was not expected given my own view of the markets and the underlying item(s) in question, I consider that worthy of locking in the gains. And no, this is all in taxable. My 403(b) is on autopilot and 100% invested in a single American Fund (RWMGX).
    @rforno : What do you consider insanely high STCG profits. Best I could come up with during recent fall - rise was 12% profit. But if one put money to work on the lowest drop day for market , I'd guess profit would be another 3% to 4% profit.
    And if you sold , I'm guessing it was in retirement account ?
    As for me ,dry powder went both ways , so no sales so far.
    Stay Safe, Derf
  • Vanguard International Explorer Fund adds Baillie Gifford Overseas Limited
    That was my point of having too many cooks in a kitchen. Unless they work well together, they tend to dilute the strategy as well as the fund's performance. If the asset gets too large, closing the fund would make more sense.
    PRIMECAP as the subadvisor to Vanguard's Primecap, Primecap core and Capital Opportunity funds. These excellent funds are closed to new investors. In my opinion, they should be closed long ago.
  • Vanguard International Explorer Fund adds Baillie Gifford Overseas Limited
    TimesSquare Capital Management is the fourth subadvisor for the Vanguard International Explorer Fund. I see no advantage in having so many subadvisors. If Vanguard's Oversight and Manager Search team conducted proper due diligence, why would more than two subadvisors be needed? IMHO, this is a detrimental feature of several actively managed Vanguard funds.
  • Vanguard International Explorer Fund adds Baillie Gifford Overseas Limited
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1004655/000168386320012719/f6675d1.htm
    497 1 f6675d1.htm VANGUARD INTERNATIONAL EXPLORER FUND SUPPLEMENT
    Vanguard International Explorer™ Fund
    Supplement Dated August 24, 2020, to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Dated February 27, 2020
    Restructuring of the Investment Advisory Team
    The Board of Trustees of Vanguard Whitehall Funds, on behalf of Vanguard International Explorer Fund (the Fund), has approved a restructuring of the Fund’s investment advisory team, adding Baillie Gifford Overseas Limited (Baillie Gifford) as a new investment advisor to the Fund.
    The Fund operates under the terms of an SEC exemption, whereby the Fund’s Board of Trustees may, without prior approval from shareholders, hire a new advisor.
    Effective immediately, Baillie Gifford manages a portion of the Fund’s assets along with the Fund’s existing advisors. Each advisor independently selects and maintains a portfolio of common stocks for the Fund. The Fund’s Board of Trustees determines the proportion of the Fund’s assets to be managed by each advisor and may change these proportions at any time.
    In connection with the addition of Baillie Gifford to the Fund, effective immediately, Brian Lum and Stephen Vaughan are added as co-portfolio managers of the Baillie Gifford portion of the Fund.
    Also effective immediately, the following other changes to the Fund’s investment advisors are made:
    •  Mary L. Pryshlak, who leads Wellington Management Company LLP’s (Wellington Management) International Small Cap Research Equity team, is added as a portfolio manager of the Wellington Management portion of the Fund. She replaces Simon Thomas, who led the International Small Cap Equity team managing Wellington Management’s portion of the Fund since 2010. Mr. Thomas is removed as a portfolio manager of the Fund, and all references to Mr. Thomas and corresponding disclosure related to Mr. Thomas in the Fund’s Prospectus and Summary Prospectus are hereby deleted.
    •  Luke Biermann is added as a co-portfolio manager for Schroder Investment Management North America Inc.’s (Schroders) portion of the Fund, joining existing Schroders portfolio manager Matthew Dobbs who will be retiring from that role at the end of March 2021...
  • Leon Cooperman - Fed Created Speculative Bubble / Bloomberg Interview
    This guy sounds like he’s been around the block a few times. Not investment advice. Just a healthy dose of perspective on many aspects of investing. Heavy on current valuations. Some mention of bonds and the traditional 60/40 portfolio.
    About 10 minutes. (Date of interview: 8/24/2020)
  • The Struggles of a 60/40 Portfolio for Pensions and Individual Investors
    Here’s the pieces conclusion:
    Direct tail-risk hedging using equity put options has proven a successful approach. Tail-risk hedging provides protection against extreme market moves that have occurred historically at a frequency well beyond what is predicted by a normal return distribution.
    Properly managed options-based tail-risk hedging can raise the CAGR where bonds have failed. Over time this can improve funded ratios, regardless of interim market crashes. Standard risk mitigation through diversification in the pursuit of higher Sharpe ratio has almost uniformly lowered the CAGR of a typical pension over a full market cycle.”
    And how timely, Fidelity is offering training tomorrow:
    Options 101: Buying options
    Join Fidelity's Trading Strategy Desk® for a look at what you need to know when buying options.
    When: Tuesday, August 25, 2020, Noon–1:00 p.m. ET
    Register Now
    To answer your question, with few exceptions, every active fund I’ve invested in has disappointed me eventually. My largest active managed stake is in Fidelity Puritan.
  • Matthews Asia Value Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/923184/000119312520228363/d48487d497.htm
    497 1 d48487d497.htm FORM 497
    MATTHEWS ASIA FUNDS
    SUPPLEMENT DATED AUGUST 24, 2020
    TO THE INVESTOR CLASS PROSPECTUS DATED APRIL 29, 2020, AS SUPPLEMENTED (THE “PROSPECTUS”)
    For all existing and prospective shareholders of Matthews Asia Value Fund – Investor Class (MAVRX):
    Liquidation
    The Board of Trustees of Matthews International Funds (d/b/a Matthews Asia Funds) (the “Trust”) has approved a Plan of Termination, Dissolution and Liquidation for the Matthews Asia Value Fund, a series of the Trust (the “Fund”), pursuant to which the Fund will be liquidated (the “Liquidation”) on or about September 30, 2020 (“Liquidation Date”). This date may be changed without notice at the discretion of the Trust’s officers.
    Suspension of Sales. Effective on August 25, 2020, the Fund will no longer sell shares to new investors or existing shareholders, including through exchanges into the Fund from other series of the Trust.
    Mechanics. The Fund will cease investment operations in accordance with the Fund’s investment objective and policies, and the Fund’s assets will be converted into cash and cash equivalents on or before the Liquidation Date. In connection with the Liquidation, any shares of the Fund outstanding on the Liquidation Date will be automatically redeemed as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date. The proceeds of any such redemption will be equal to the net asset value of those shares after the Fund has paid or covered with reserves all of its charges, taxes, expenses and liabilities. The distribution to shareholders of these liquidation proceeds will occur as soon as practicable, and will be made to all shareholders of the Fund of record at the time of the Liquidation. Additionally, the Fund must declare and distribute to shareholders any realized capital gains and all net investment income no later than the final Liquidation distribution. Matthews International Capital Management, LLC (“Matthews”), investment advisor to the Fund, intends to distribute substantially all of the Fund’s net investment income before the Liquidation. Matthews will bear all expenses in connection with the Liquidation to the extent those expenses exceed the amount of the Fund’s normal and customary fees and expenses accrued by the Fund through the Liquidation Date, provided that those accrued amounts are first applied to pay for the Fund’s normal and customary fees and expenses.
    Other Alternatives. At any time before the Liquidation Date, shareholders of the Fund may redeem their shares of the Fund and receive the net asset value thereof, pursuant to the procedures set forth under “Investing in the Matthews Asia Funds – Selling (Redeeming) Shares” in the Prospectus. Shareholders may also exchange their Fund shares for shares of the same class of any other series of the Trust, as described in and subject to any restrictions set forth under “Investing in the Matthews Asia Funds – Exchanging Shares” in the Prospectus.
    U.S. Federal Income Tax Matters. For tax purposes, with respect to shares held in a taxable account, the automatic redemption of shares of the Fund on the Liquidation Date will generally be treated as any other redemption of shares (i.e., as a sale that may result in gain or loss for federal income tax purposes). Instead of waiting until the Liquidation Date, a shareholder may voluntarily redeem his or her shares before the Liquidation Date to the extent that the shareholder wishes to realize any such gains or losses before the Liquidation Date. See “Other Shareholder Information – Taxes” in the Prospectus. Shareholders should consult their tax advisors regarding the tax treatment of the Liquidation.
    If you have any questions regarding the Liquidation, please contact the Trust at 1-800-789-ASIA (2742).
    Portfolio Manager Changes
    For all existing and prospective shareholders of Matthews Asia Funds:
    Effective as of August 31, 2020, Tiffany Hsiao, CFA, YuanYuan Ji and Beini Zhou, CFA, will no longer act as Portfolio Managers of the Trust. All references to Mses. Hsiao and Ji and Mr. Zhou are removed in their entirety as of the same date.
    For all existing and prospective shareholders of Matthews Asia Growth Fund – Investor Class (MPACX):
    Effective as of August 31, 2020, Michael J. Oh, CFA, will act as Co-Manager of the Matthews Asia Growth Fund. Taizo Ishida will continue to act as the Lead Manager of the Matthews Asia Growth Fund.
    For all existing and prospective shareholders of Matthews Asian Growth and Income Fund – Investor Class (MACSX):
    Effective as of August 31, 2020, Satya Patel will act as Co-Manager of the Matthews Asian Growth and Income Fund, and John Paul Lech will no longer act as Co-Manager of the Matthews Asian Growth and Income Fund. Effective as of the same date, all references to Mr. Lech in respect of the Matthews Asian Growth and Income Fund are removed. Robert Horrocks, PhD, and Kenneth Lowe, CFA, will continue to act as Lead Managers of the Matthews Asian Growth and Income Fund.
    For all existing and prospective shareholders of Matthews Asia Innovators Fund – Investor Class (MATFX):
    Effective as of August 31, 2020, Raymond Deng will act as Co-Manager of the Matthews Asia Innovators Fund. Michael J. Oh, CFA, will continue to act as the Lead Manager of the Matthews Asia Innovators Fund.
    For all existing and prospective shareholders of Matthews Asia Small Companies Fund – Investor Class (MSMLX):
    Effective as of August 31, 2020, Vivek Tanneeru will act as the Lead Manager of the Matthews Asia Small Companies Fund, and there will be no Co-Manager for the Matthews Asia Small Companies Fund.
    For all existing and prospective shareholders of Matthews Asia Value Fund – Investor Class (MAVRX):
    Effective as of August 31, 2020, Robert J. Horrocks, PhD, will act as the sole Lead Manager of the Matthews Asia Value Fund through its liquidation on or about September 30, 2020.
    For all existing and prospective shareholders of Matthews Emerging Markets Equity Fund – Investor Class (MEGMX):
    Effective as of August 31, 2020, John Paul Lech will act as the sole Lead Manager of the Matthews Emerging Markets Equity Fund.
    For all existing and prospective shareholders of Matthews China Small Companies Fund – Investor Class (MCSMX):
    Effective as of August 31, 2020, Winnie Chwang and Andrew Mattock, CFA, will act as Lead Managers of the Matthews China Small Companies Fund, and there will be no Co-Manager for the Matthews China Small Companies Fund.
  • VWINX
    DHHIX was @davfor 's suggestion. It looks like you're restricting max drawdown to the past five years, else (I believe) VWINX's max drawdown would be -21.77%, between 10/29/07 and 3/9/09.
    On the one hand, limiting your time frame to five years does add a bit of consistency to your criteria. On the other hand, as you observed, funds have different personalities. They should be stress tested more than once. We've had only one bear market since VWINX dropped nearly 22%; that was this past March.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/business/bear-market-stocks-dow.html
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/27/heres-how-long-stock-market-corrections-last-and-how-bad-they-can-get.html
    Any fund that lucked out in March could meet your criteria but still have a good chance of dropping 20%. Something else to consider is the possibility that a fund changed its strategy in the past 2-3 years.
    If neither of these is of concern you, Skeet (at least I think it's Skeet) has owned a fund for many years that meets your criteria. I believe he's looking for a substitute because it's changed focus recently. Also, though it hasn't had any huge drawdowns since the 2007-2009 bear market, it did drop 47.6% between 5/18/08 and 3/9/09. The fund is CTFAX.
    That huge drop was almost exactly the same drop as VPMAX (47.66%) had over the same dates. Yet, while VPMAX dropped 32.42% between 2/19 and 3/23 of this year, CTFAX fund dropped "just" 10.43% (almost 7% better than VWINX).
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread
    Thank you. I believe there is an institutional shares but it may requires $1M minimum. I too like to consolidate my funds to a handful for ease of tracking.
    There is no capital gain issue if you use it in tax deferred account. Tax efficiency is not one of the goal in active managed funds.
  • VWINX
    I would be interested in a science experiment. Are there any suggestions of funds that are similar to the 5 year CAGR 6.37% Sharpe 0.91 and Max Draw -17.43% (2/21--3/23/2020) of VWINX? I want to eliminate any fund with greater than -17.43% Max Drawdown. Key: the fund can be any asset class, any sector, any allocation etc. Any fund/ETF in the universe. (don't give me VWIAX). Two examples I have found is VSCGX and strangely VGCIX. Any suggestions?
  • Cramer: all sound and fury
    this excellent wrapup and review might be of interest (rattner) w the rnc coming up:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/23/opinion/trump-convention-economy.html