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Pardon a bit of cynicism here, but it doesn't take two decades to come to this conclusion. Unless something unspoken has changed, like risk. Not necessarily risk to the investor, but to Vanguard. Jane Bryant Quinn wrote in 1990:Over the past two decades, Vanguard’s approach has helped Prime Admiral Shares outperform 97% of the competition. However, Prime Investor Shares have only slightly outperformed Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund over this same time period. This shift in the fund’s portfolio [to US government securities] underscores Vanguard’s belief that government money market funds can better meet investor needs for capital preservation and liquidity while avoiding undue risk.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1990-05-21-9002110461-story.htmlThe last year has seen at least two near-misses. Integrated Resources defaulted on commercial paper that was being held by some money funds, and paper owed by Mortgage & Realty Trust was threatened. Among the victims: funds carrying the good names of Value Line, Liquid Green, Alliance and T. Rowe Price.
In each case, the sponsor stepped in to absorb the loss. But if it hadn`t, the fund`s investors would have come up short.
@rforno, what makes IVOL interesting to you. I see it is categorized a TIP ETF. I compared it to the TIP ETF I use, SCHP, and surprisingly IVOL holds 88% SCHP in it's portfolio. It's dip in march was less but over all it under performs SCHP.
I do think DCA'ing into TIPs isn't a bad idea.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/called-buffett-indicator-hits-time-211520943.htmlThe metric earned its nickname after Buffett once said it's “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” The Buffett indicator is calculated by dividing the total value of all stocks in the U.S. market and by the gross domestic product of the U.S. Traders typically use the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index as a measure of total U.S. market cap.
Historically, the Buffett indicator average has been between 93% and 114%. The ratio peaked at 107.5% at the peak of the housing bubble in 2007 and at 139.5% during the dot-com bubble in 2000. In 2020, the Buffett indicator has spiked to new all-time highs of 182.7%, and it continues to climb higher with each new stock market high.
Benzinga’s Take: Even if the stock market is overvalued, it doesn’t mean a sell-off is imminent. However, it does mean that investors should keep that stretched valuation in mind when assessing risk and balancing a portfolio accordingly.
https://cnbc.com/2020/08/26/investors-are-running-in-complete-blindness-right-now-economist-says.html“In the 30 years I have been an economist we have never had this much uncertainty about the effects of the shutdowns, the future of the shutdowns because of the pandemic, the policy response and people’s fear in a sense,” Erik Nielsen, group chief economist at UniCredit, told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe.
“We are running in complete blindness right now, there is no way of being confident about the outlook,” he said.
“Central banks are doing everything they can…but they cannot solve the problem,” he said.
“What we need is fiscal policy and then we need news on the pandemic that things are coming back to normal,” Nielsen said.
@rforno : What do you consider insanely high STCG profits. Best I could come up with during recent fall - rise was 12% profit. But if one put money to work on the lowest drop day for market , I'd guess profit would be another 3% to 4% profit.
And if you sold , I'm guessing it was in retirement account ?
As for me ,dry powder went both ways , so no sales so far.
Stay Safe, Derf
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