Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • CGMFX WTF
    maybe you and I can go to the same therapist and get a discount as we have owned some bad MFs. Unlike Bill Miller and John Rogers, FAIRX and CGMFX have not done well and continue to underperform the market very badly.
  • CGMFX WTF
    According to morningstar, the expense ratio of CGMFX is 2.45% and assets are down to $494 million which means that he has been selling a lot. I briefly owned CGMFX in the past but bailed as the fact that he trades a lot was a huge negative. I still own FAIRX as the asset bleeding at FAIRX seems to have stopped. I also owned Third Avenue credit and got stuck holding the bag as everyone else left. I guess Heebner selling equities to meet redemptions is NOT as bad as Third Avenue credit fund having to sell illiquid junk bonds when the redemption calls came. However, when you have a run at at MF, then hedge funds might start shorting those holdings and cause the issues to get worse (although Heebner is in and out all the time so not sure people can short his holdings). Heebner was short treasuries for a while and of course yields on treasuries are still low.
  • CGMFX WTF
    Totally inspired by similar post on SFGIX...
    I really know how to pick them.
    HSGFX
    FAIRX
    now CGMFX
    I've gotten back my principal some time back so have been letting this ride. However I have watched my current cost basis of $6000 go to as much as $7700 and now is at $5200 odd. YTD down over 15% YTD.
    Now I know Heebner invests on a whim but can't believe he would be so out of step with things. Then I did something I normally don't do with this fund. I looked at the portfolio.
    >45% in Emerging Markets as per M*. "WTF" does not begin to explain it.
    How many idiots besides me still hold this fund? Please feel free to lie.
  • Heebner's 18% First-Half Loss Is Worst Among U.S. Stock-Pickers
    @VF, approaching retirement, iirc. I should check when I bailed out. I think the graph shows that what I wrote cannot be true (x30). Maybe I started w/ LOMMX somewhere near 1982 and then switched to CGMFX when it began, '97 or so.
  • Heebner's 18% First-Half Loss Is Worst Among U.S. Stock-Pickers
    @LewisBraham. I used distributions from CGMFX and FAIRX to buy COBYX. Frankly, I've thought of selling CGMFX a few times but for different reason. Heebner is Old, and there is no succession plan in place. Also his bond short - I thought that was a good thing to have in rising rate environment. Bond rates went up, his fund goes down - WTF?!
    Now I'm wondering if he has lost it and/or is even managing the fund.
  • Heebner's 18% First-Half Loss Is Worst Among U.S. Stock-Pickers
    I think FAIRX may be easier to time than CGMFX because Berkowitz is a buy and hold investor so out of favor sectors he buys may come back. But Heebner trades a lot, so the portfolio of the fund you're buying now may not be remotely the same a few month hence.
  • Heebner's 18% First-Half Loss Is Worst Among U.S. Stock-Pickers
    @BrianW - The kind that is playing with the house's money. I have mentioned before the ONLY way to invest with CGMFX and FAIRX is to buy at right time, take your money out, and then "let it run".
    I'm in both CGMFX and FAIRX.
    And oh, remember...NEVER reinvest distributions especially in such funds.
  • Heebner's 18% First-Half Loss Is Worst Among U.S. Stock-Pickers
    FYI: Kenneth Heebner, once America’s top stock-picker, has found the going tougher these days.
    Heebner’s $768 million CGM Focus Fund fell 18 percent in the first half of 2018, the biggest drop among more than 900 diversified domestic equity mutual funds with at least $500 million in assets, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The S&P 500 Index returned 2.7 percent, including reinvested dividends.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-02/heebner-s-18-first-half-loss-is-worst-among-u-s-stock-pickers
    M* Snapshot CGMFX:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/CGMFX/quote.html
  • 1 Star Fund CGMFX - Seems to be L/S...Long Financials...Short US Treasuries and some FANGS
    I was looking for funds that have a high stake in BAC (Bank of America) and one that tops this list is Ken Heeber's CGMFX with a 20% stake in BAC.
    I also noticed a lot of short positions in the fund. @davidmoran, @VintageFreak, and others have all commented on this fund.
    MFO discussion search for CMGFX
    AMZN, SNAP and NFLX shorts have gone against the fund. Not sure how shorting the Treasury position works.
    The manager as usual looks to be doing interesting things. Here's its top 25 holdings (note: negative % = short positions):
    image
  • Does a Reversion To The Mean Follow Big Up Years?
    k
    >> varies by how hot the hand is.
    Right. So the wolfram 'extreme event is likely to be followed by less-extreme one' is both accurate and not very specifically useful. While 'unitlessness' makes for learning problems (me).
    You read 538, I bet.
    >> varies by how hot the hand is.
    Is this a way of advising (sometimes) to bail from extreme runups? I luckily did this, sort of, w/ CGMFX. Should have seen it coming w FLVCX back when? I suppose so.
    But I bet this is not like the novice saying 'must sell, this can't continue.'
  • FAAFX -- has the Great Pumpkin arrived?
    CGMFX doesn't pay out anything, does it?
    If you are asking if it makes distributions, you are correct in that it has not in a while. Then again, it had bad time some time back and probably sitting on tax losses. On top of that may not be trading much lately. It's thesis has it short long term bonds for a while. Frankly one of the reasons I held on to it because I wanted to do that but couldn't myself.
    If JORDX was still open I would have closed CGMFX position and moved it over. Unfortunately JORDX was one fund despite doing well could never garner assets to keep it viable.
    Finally, don't mean to sound morose, but the manager is the fund at places like CGMFX and FAIRX. There is no succession planning as far as I can tell, and even if there was I wouldn't believe it. I had a good run with AKREX and got out for same reason. Needless to say I sold early but I felt COBYX was better long term bet than AKREX. AKREX suggests there is now succession planning, but I'm not buying it. Not as if Munger is waiting to fill Buffet. T
    This is one issue with concentrated, eponymous funds I think investors should be aware off. Heebner is what?...76?
  • Alphabet And Amazon Bring Back Ghosts Of 1,000s Past
    @VF
    Yes, my largest equity MF, CFIMX, owns a large slug of AMZN and GOOG! ...and Davis were once "value" investors!
    I made comment on Weitz on another thread, likening him to Miller. Sorry, but I think Davis and Co might fit the same mould. Managers, you should stick with your style. People should decide if they want to invest and stay invested in you. Your style needs to stick. Hussman sucks but he is consistent.
    It is very important for me for my managers to have courage of their convictions. Changing definition of "value" to market your fund is sheer hypocrisy. Amazon has a profit margin of less than 2%. Biggest hypocrite, M* has fair value estimate of $1050. WTF? Compare with Walmart's numbers. COBYX owns Walmart. Another consistent fund PVFIX. So are CGMFX and FAIRX. They are investing exactly how they say they will and what I expect.
    CFIMX has no business owning Amazon. FCNTX is supposed to be contrarian. HTF is Amazon contrarian? I don't get why people don't just buy QQQ if they want to play high flying growth stocks. Or buy Profunds Leveraged fund.
  • FAAFX -- has the Great Pumpkin arrived?
    I've said this before, and I'll say this again.
    1) When you buy vs What you buy
    2) do not reinvest dividends (especially in the Dweebners and the Dorkiwitzs)
    I'm in both CGMFX and FAIRX playing with the houses money. I have the luxury to just wait and see if they turn around or go bankrupt.
    No such luck with Hussman though. Because I didn't follow my 1-2 mantra when I bought it back first in 2001. I thought if anything this was the fund to DCA into, and so I did. Now I'm selling little every year. Might sell out completely this year. Funds managed by 1-2 people need 1-2 mantra.
    PVFIX, I'm considering adding now after so many years of just holding.
    COBYX, I did not time perfectly but not doing too badly. Not sending new money though.
  • IBD: Which Mutual Funds Beat The S&P 500 Over The Last 1, 3, 5 & 10 Years?
    >> Why not just look at 10 years? I give you WWWFX
    Just plot it at 3-4-5y, and there's the answer to why not. But if you believe in the decisionmaker, sure. Same as CGMFX and Heebner. 'Twas ever thus. Gotta believe the manager's skills abide.
  • APPLX, FAIRX, CGMFX, etc.
    I used to have JORDX in this list. Unfortunately manager closed the fund. I guess it was not gathering enough assets. I would have thought $150MM was enough for him. Apparently not.
    PVFIX is another fund that belongs to my list. Largely in cash forever, but I like it. Sometimes its about keeping money in cash or in a fund like COBYX, PVFIX. It's about Prudent risk. On the other hand, sometimes you just go with a CGMFX and FAIRX. Wierd Science, and I think that's okay.
  • APPLX, FAIRX, CGMFX, etc.
    Cardinal sin committed without intending to do so and hijacking FMIJX thread. Attempting to correct the mistake.
    @AndyJ. So these kind of funds you buy because of HOW they invest. This is what I call "Manager Risk" that you are willing to assume. For "Market Risk" there are index funds. I don't have any deep insight into APPLX. Just like I don't have that deep insight into the other funds I mentioned. It is just part of my go anywhere collection where you trust manager including his decision to go cash/gold. My hope is as a collection these funds will do well for me over time.
    As an aside, SEQUX was once supposed to be part of this collection. However I could never pulled the trigger. MUHLX was once part of this collection. My rants on fund-alarm tell you why I quit this fund long time back.
    I don't invest in individual stocks. So all these funds I mentioned are my "speculative" funds. Sometimes, when I see a lot of risk I only play with house's money. Also I never re-invest distributions, and I will only add following my "when you by vs what you buy" rule. So if FAIRX tanks 50% tomorrow, I might consider buying a little more. Else I will never add to the position.
    Hope that makes some sense. Especially for these funds I expect manager commitment of his own money. BULLX was in this list and I sold it after learning Manager sold all his shares. Later realized he was transitioning out to a team and I see now new managers have some investment but not a whole lot. It's on my list to track along with BVAOX. If there is no significant market correction, I might never buy these funds. If there is one, there is good chance I will.
  • FMI International Fund to close to new investors
    VF, I'm curious what you still see in APPLX.
    Not sure I understand your question entirely - what do you still see...? My decisions to own funds are not always performance based. If so, I would have sold it. I'm curious why you asked me about APPLX and not (say) FAIRX or CGMFX. I am open to hearing your opinion on any of the funds I mentioned above as to why I should sell. Pretty much all of them have stunk from a relative performance perspective.
    Getting back to APPLX gold bets have it underperforming till a couple of years back, but it seems to have come around. I can buy gold or I can buy funds who use gold as a hedge - HSTRX, FEVAX, APPLX.
  • FMI International Fund to close to new investors

    Never said it was good or bad, my point was concentrated funds tend to closer sooner to preserve flexibility. Personally, I like them and own a few of them.
    Sure. 35 stock IMO is not that concentrated. There are studies that show beyond 20 holdings it matters less. However, let's not get into statistical mumbo jumbo. It matters more if there is MUCH concentration in top 5-10 holdings. FAIRX as example.
    I doubt you will ever see wild swings in FMIJX, and that's not just because managers are more competent or they invest in "value" stocks. Their top holding could be carved in half and it would go down 2%. Par for the course. And FMIJX is more diversified across sectors which is the real diversification we seek. We all know too well how diversified Large Cap Growth was (NOT!) in the early 2000s.
    My point was - and I quoted some numbers already - FMIJX has more than 35 "holdings". Can't simply go by number of disclosed holdings to determine concentration.
    As an aside, I didn't know Mutual Funds are not required to divulge ALL their holdings. Recently reading annual report for FPIVX, I read "the fund does not disclose all its holdings". So I went checking. I wouldn't be surprised if the 18 (other) and 11 (short) holdings of FMIJX are undisclosed. Need to go do some digging. Right now I'm trusting M* (what have I done!)
    PS - Your logic on owning concentrated funds, i.e. best ideas I like. I own a few myself, but not what you might like :-)
    COBYX, FAIRX, APPLX, PROVX, CGMFX, FVALX, INTLX,...not sure I got all of them.
  • DSE_X downside
    >> other than the fact it has performed well.
    What else is there, ultimately? Plus the method.
    I just now looked at the best LCV at M* for 3y and 5y, and graphed IFUTX and TWEIX, their winners, against DSENX since inception (3.5y ago). Outperformance. Also for every other period I could graph, short and longer, it is no contest.
    Yes, past performance etc. My question would be how it would do against its category.
    I am not comparing it with CGMFX or WEMMX or FRIFX.
    As for mimicking, yeah, I also have looked at many bondy ways to augment CAPE and thus far come up short.
    So that's the love answer, for me.