"I’ve looked at QDSNX before and decided it’s not for me.
Too short a track record for my comfort level.
But the numbers are amazing since the fund opened in 2020."
I've taken a brief look at QDSNX.
The fund has performed very well since inception.
QDSNX is extremely complex since it is a fund of funds allocated to six AQR alternative funds.
It could be challenging for me to stay invested in this fund if it experienced a severe decline
because—in all likelihood—I would be unable to determine what caused the fall.

Interesting Morningstar Article (dated 2023)
”In December 2020, inflation-protected securities funds were sitting pretty. The average fund had gained nearly 10% over the past year as Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities’ real yields went progressively lower. Investors noticed, shoveling $22 billion into TIPS funds that year … ”

Nothing new per se, but the charts are interesting. Also probably means that any moves up or down will quickly become rather exaggerated once computers catch up to discresionary traders ... which also probably explains some of the completely INSANE daily price moves on single stocks in recent weeks/months, too. (It was annoying but bearable - if not predictable at times - when trading before/during the GFC when algos were first taking off, but nowdays the dial is turned to 15 on these things!)
Computer-guided traders haven’t been this bullish on stocks compared to their human counterparts since early 2020, before the depths of the Covid pandemic, according to Parag Thatte, a strategist at Deutsche Bank AG.
The two groups look at different cues to form their opinions, so it’s not a shock that they see the market differently. While computer-driven fast-money quants use systematic strategies based on momentum and volatility signals, discretionary money managers are individuals looking at economic and earnings trends to guide their moves.

< - >
Free link https://archive.ph/X5mf6

Fred said ”However, my bottom line is a fund's risk/reward profile, not its fees”
I think there.’s a good case to be made for that line of thinking. More true I think in “frothy” markets like today or for someone in their “golden years”, more concerned about “not losing a lot” rather than with “making a lot”.
I’ve looked at QDSNX before and decided it’s not for me. Too short a track record for my comfort level. But the numbers are amazing since the fund opened in 2020.

@WABAC - thanks for the post, and for reassuring me that I'm not an idiot posting about BBH and Payden. (Or perhaps we both are :-)).
Some of the funds you mentioned as not losing money did draw down microscopic amounts (in the rounding error range). Worth mentioning only to show that unlike cash, all bond funds can lose money. The Fed announced raising rates on March 16, 2022.
Portfolio Visualizer drawdown graph of BIL, TFLO, and USFR. Of the three, only USFR has beaten cash since March 2022.
I've looked at most of the other funds you mentioned. All worth the look, none that jumped out and said "pick me". Not that I don't have some preferences, e.g. USFR over TFLO. But the differences are minor, and I've been happy rolling my own 1-3 month T-bills as opposed to using Treasury funds. A bit more work, though.
RPHIX does hold lots of high yield debt. Normally that would concern me as well. Which is why I've been more inclined to look at funds like FLOT and FLRN than funds with lower grade assets. But RPHIX reduces risk in a few different and distinctive ways. With rare exceptions it has succeeded and has a long track record to point to.

To summarize the Fund’s goal and investment approach, we seek to invest the Fund’s assets in securities that we believe are ‘money good’, that we are highly confident will pay interest and principal without interruption largely because they are extremely short term in maturity, have been already called for redemption, or are uniquely positioned within their capital structure as it relates to their priority claim on assets and cash flows.

RiverPark Short Term High Yield update, March 2020

Bill Fleckenstein is a virtual encyclopedia on the precious metals and miners. I’d be much wealthier had I followed 100% of his advice going back about 5 years. From yesterday’s ”Daily Rap” (8/09/2025):
”… these tariffs won't impact demand or the spot gold price much. However, they do cause a problem for folks who arbitrage between London Gold and Comex Gold, because Comex Gold requires 100-ounce bars for settlement, which is what comes out of Switzerland and has now been sanctioned to the tune of 39%. Meanwhile, London gold has 400-ounce bars … what this has done is thrown a monkey wrench into the plumbing of gold … ”
Excerpt from: Daily Rap (Fleckenstein Capital LLC). This is a subscription based service. Link takes you to the site one year ago. You’d need to “pay-up” to read current commentaries.

Margin loans come to private markets.
Ran across this blog post from a law firm yesterday. As far as I know, and I'm willing to be schooled, margin debt in public markets is mostly a gamble by individual investors on specific companies. The description of margin debt in the linked post seems to me to indicate a different purpose.

Interest in “private” margin loans has grown as fund managers seek new ways to ease distribution bottlenecks that have constrained cash flows to investors. According to Bain & Co., private markets distributions as a percentage of NAV have fallen from an average of 29% between 2014-17 to 11% in 2024, the lowest rate in a decade.
Private margin loans have helped ease the pressure by unlocking debt capital, which fund managers can use to finance acquisitions or return capital to investors. The loans are secured against the equity stakes that the managers hold in the relevant portfolio companies.

snip

Interest from sponsors is growing, as many are still holding on to assets that they would rather not sell in the currently volatile environment. They are looking for ways to secure additional liquidity against those assets to fund follow-on investments and support their funds. Given these conditions, private margin loans are poised to become an increasingly popular financing option.

Auto Industry Takes $12 Billion Hit From Trade War
"President Trump’s tariff war has inflicted almost $12 billion of losses on global automakers,
the biggest hit they have faced since the pandemic.
The scary reality: This may be just the beginning."
"For the world’s 10 largest automakers, not including those in China,
net profit is currently forecast to fall by roughly a quarter this calendar year
to its lowest level since 2020, when the pandemic led to cash-draining factory shutdowns."
...

The very people and sector that were promised a leg up, instead will be getting a boot to the head. Predominantly in Trump country.
"The majority of automotive manufacturing facilities in the US are in Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana - home to a large number of American assembly plants and parts suppliers. States like Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama, and Mississippi for foreign automakers and their suppliers.

FD1000,
I said crypto is very risky, probably 5-10% max in portfolio. Just pointing out like you implied that politics should not factor into investing decision. Many people have missed out on biggest gains of last year because (maybe in part at least) they don’t like politics of people in the space (crypto, Palantir, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac).
I have advocated more than 12 years ago that Treasury should take very small amount from bond sales and put into S&P 500 - very radical at the time but President just this year is talking about setting up a sovereign wealth fund.

Gemini won’t reveal source for data, but
https://www.tiingo.com/products/end-of-day-stock-price-data
$30/month
Claims to have data from 1970s, then can have AI write Python code to generate output needed.

They offer a pretty generous free subscription as well. Access to all of their data (all stocks, funds, 30+ years of historical data), but limited in quantity: 500 unique symbols per month, 50 queries per hour, 1000 queries per day.
Quality of data looks very good. I ran a query on VFIAX between 2/19/20 and 3/23/20 inclusive (max drawdown dates) to compare with M* and the Gemini figure given above (-33.72%).
M* chart gives -33.80%, exactly what one gets using Tingo's (10 digit precision) adjusted prices. Tingo also gives a more precise div figure for March 9 ($1.1794/share) than I've been able to find elsewhere. Using that div figure I was able to validate Tingo's adjusted price for March 9th.
In contrast, Yahoo's adjusted price for that date seemed off a little. And using Yahoo's (two decimal place) adjusted price figures for the drawdown endpoints produced a drawdown of -33.83%, vs. Tingo's and M*'s -33.80%. (We already knew that Yahoo's rounding results in inaccuracies.)
I also found that if one compounded the daily gains (after accounting for the div on March 9) the result is also -33.80% so long as one uses at least five decimal places of precision. Rounding each day's gain (or loss) to 4 decimal places resulted in a perceived loss of -33.82%.
All in all, Tingo seems to be both very accurate (not giving wrong values) and very precise (lots of decimal places). Easy to use - output in JSON and csv format.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1644419/000158064225004978/anchorglobalstrat497.htm
497 1 anchorglobalstrat497.htm 497
Anchor Risk Managed Global Strategies Fund
Advisor Class Shares – ATAGX
Institutional Class Shares – ATGSX
(a series of Northern Lights Fund Trust IV)
Supplement dated August 8, 2025
to the Prospectuses and Statements of Additional Information dated December 30, 2024
______________________________________________________________________________
The Board of Trustees of Northern Lights Fund Trust IV (the “Board”) has determined based on the recommendation of the investment adviser of the Anchor Risk Managed Global Strategies Fund (the “Fund”), that it is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund cease operations. The Board has determined to close the Fund and redeem all outstanding shares on August 28, 2025.
Effective at the close of business August 8, 2025, the Fund will not accept any purchases and will no longer pursue its stated investment objectives. The Fund may begin liquidating its portfolio and may invest in cash equivalents such as money market funds until all shares have been redeemed. Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders.
Prior to August 28, 2025, you may redeem your shares, including reinvested distributions, in accordance with the “How to Redeem Shares” section in the Prospectus. Unless your investment in the Fund is through a tax-deferred retirement account, a redemption is subject to tax on any taxable gains. Please refer to the “Tax Status, Dividends and Distributions” section in the Prospectus for general information. You may wish to consult your tax advisor about your particular situation.
ANY SHAREHOLDERS WHO HAVE NOT REDEEMED THEIR SHARES OF THE FUND PRIOR TO AUGUST 28, 2025 WILL HAVE THEIR SHARES AUTOMATICALLY REDEEMED AS OF THAT DATE, AND PROCEEDS WILL BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS OF RECORD. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR NEED ASSISTANCE, PLEASE CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR DIRECTLY OR THE FUND AT 1-844-594-1226 (toll-free).
This Supplement and the existing Prospectuses dated December 30, 2024, provide relevant information for all shareholders and should be retained for future reference. Both the Prospectuses and the Statements of Additional Information dated December 30, 2024, have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, are incorporated by reference and can be obtained without charge by calling the Fund at 1-844-594-1226

It appears that new car/truck prices may be increasing appreciably in the near future.
I posted this is another thread.
Auto Industry Takes $12 Billion Hit From Trade War
"President Trump’s tariff war has inflicted almost $12 billion of losses on global automakers,
the biggest hit they have faced since the pandemic.
The scary reality: This may be just the beginning."
"For the world’s 10 largest automakers, not including those in China,
net profit is currently forecast to fall by roughly a quarter this calendar year
to its lowest level since 2020, when the pandemic led to cash-draining factory shutdowns."
https://msn.com/en-us/autos/electric-cars/auto-industry-takes-12-billion-hit-from-trade-war/ar-AA1K4ODX

Vanguard is the only fund company I know of that posts running totals of capital gains throughout the year. The suite of Primecap funds, for example, look like they have already realized double-digit percentages of gains so far this year, and it seems those will get a lot bigger given outsized July redemptions (almost $4 billion worth in the case of VPMCX, according to M*).

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1548609/000089418925005486/baf-497e.htm
97 1 baf-497e.htm SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS
BROWN ADVISORY FUNDS
Brown Advisory – WMC Strategic European Equity Fund
(the “Fund”)
Supplement dated August 6, 2025
to the Statutory Prospectus, the Summary Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information dated October 31, 2024
Capitalized terms and certain other terms used in this Supplement, unless otherwise defined in this Supplement, have the meanings assigned to them in the Statutory Prospectus, the Summary Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information.
1.Restriction on the Sale of Shares of the Fund to Certain Investors
Effective as of the close of business on August 8, 2025 (the “Closing Date”), the Fund will stop accepting new purchases other than those purchases as described below which will continue to be permitted. Notwithstanding the foregoing, the Fund may, in its sole discretion, accept new purchases after the Closing Date from certain financial intermediaries that have entered into agreements with the Fund’s Distributor or with the Fund’s Investment Adviser, Brown Advisory LLC (the “Adviser”). Following the Closing Date, the Fund will continue to permit the following types of investments in the Fund:
•Additional share purchases made in connection with the reinvestment of dividends or capital gains by existing Fund shareholders;
•Investments made by institutional and separately managed account investors that are clients of the Adviser; and
•Investments made through the Adviser’s 401(k) retirement plan that is maintained for use by employees of the Adviser.
The Fund reserves the right, at any time, in its sole discretion, to further modify or amend the investment limitations described above. You may be required to demonstrate your eligibility to purchase shares of the Fund before your investment is accepted.
For additional information regarding the restrictions on new purchases of shares of the Fund, please contact the Fund at 1-800-540-6807 (toll free) or 414-203-9064.
Investors should retain this supplement for future reference.

Indeed. I've turned to ETFs for all new investments for the past few years. My basis in these "surprise" mutual funds goes back decades. RYPNX has alway been right on the edge of my personal "efficient frontier" (return vs volatility) map, so I've always considered the tax inefficiency to be a sign that the fund managers are doing their job :-)
Morningstar published a "Potential Capital Gains Exposure" figure but it ranges from zero to low 70 percent even for SP500 index funds (and minus 3% for SPY??). It's 26% for RYPNX, but much higher for funds with lower turnovers, which is sort of consistent, but my guess is that these stats are all over the map since the market's been seeing record highs since the start of the year.
It will be fun to see if Copilot or ChatGPT have any insights. They aren't afraid to tell you your numbers are meaningless. But they are very good at making plots, you just paste in some CSV-format data and boom you get a PNG image of your graph. Copilot even posts a code fragment so I can regenerate the graph myself with Matlib.

Max drawdown period for all funds was Feb 2020-March 2020

Gemini supposedly using daily prices
Fund Performance Metrics (Jan 4, 2016 – Jul 31, 2025)
Fund Name & Ticker CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate)
Max Drawdown
Sharpe Ratio
Sortino Ratio
Marshfield Fund (MRFOX) 12.15% -30.88% 0.65 0.94
T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation (PRWCX) 14.72% -26.54% 0.82 1.21
T. Rowe Price U.S. Equity Research (PRCOX) 13.98% -34.11% 0.73 1.05
Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VFIAX) 14.35% -33.72% 0.76 1.09

Note: Start date defaults to 01/04/2016 which is the first trading day in Jan. 2016
Why does it do that? Testfolio says that the run is limited to 1/4/16 by the inception date of MRFOX. But the fund started on 12/28/2015, per Marshfield.
Remove MRFOX from the test set and Testfolio start date defaults to 11/13/2000. It correctly says that this is the inception date of VFIAX.
CAGRs and cumulative returns should be identical so long as same starting and ending dates are used. But they're not. Set Testfolio (and M* charts) to use dates from 1/31/16 through 7/31/25 and set PV to use Feb 2016 through July 2025. Cumulative returns from PV and M* are identical, but don't agree with Testfolio:
Cumulative Returns (M* & PV vs. Testfolio)
MRFOX: 326.81% vs 326.76%
PRWCX: 189.58% vs 186.74%
PRCOX: 303.21% vs 304.91%
VFIAX: 284.69% vs 284.69% - a match
Perhaps Testfolio is calculating reinvested dividends on its own, and slightly differently from the other tools. Worth noting is that its figures differ from the official figures, i.e. the ones reported by funds themselves.
For example, look at MRFOX for 2020, i.e. between 12/31/19 and 12/31/20. The fund prospectus, M* charts, M* fund performance table, and PV all report a 2020 return of 15.19%. Testfolio reports 15.18%. (To be precise, M* reports 15.1936% and PV reports 15.194% while Testfolio reports 15.17889%.)
CAGR are close enough.
For investing purposes, yes. It's the fact that they're not identical for identical dates that gives one pause.
Likewise, numerically it doesn't matter much whether one is looking at monthly variations or daily ones. Daily fluctuations are noise, just as tick-to-tick fluctuations in ETFs are noise at an even higher frequency. What matters more is comparing one fund's volatility with another's at the same sampling frequency.
IMHO max drawdowns are different. Recovery times when calculated monthly and daily can vary wildly. For example (not the best example, but it will suffice), consider IOFIX.
IOFIX peaked on March 6, 2020. By March 25 it had dropped 45.49%. On a daily basis, it has yet to recover. It came close on Feb 2, 2022, down just 0.22% from its peak, but that was as high as it got.
On a monthly basis (Feb 28, 2020 peak to March 31, 2020 trough), it dropped "only" 37.95% and recovered by Jan 31, 2022 (up 0.0755% from its previous peak).

Does anyone have a method for estimating fund capital gain distributions this
early in the year? I need to keep my income below a certain level for 2025
and have a few mutual funds that sometimes throw a big surprise at
the ends of the year. Normally this is not a problem :-)
What drives distributions? I figure it would be some function of turnover, NAV,
fund inflows and outflows, and of course fund policy.
Any ideas? Also where I might be able to see more timely
turnover and inflow outflow data - funds and Morningstar seems to report it only at
year end.
An an example, I looked up 5 years of data for RYPNX (Royce Small Cap
Opportunity) and plotted turnover vs change # of shares vs the CG distribution for 5 years.
[I tried to post an image, didn't work.]
Not much of a pattern, they have reported 35% turnover for the past three years.
The 2021 distribution was a whopper, about 25% of NAV, turnover was 69%.
But the 2020 distribution was 0 even though turnover was 53%. Q1 2020 was the pandemic big correction
and then the fund had a big spike in Q2-3 2021, even though the asset unders management was
still nearly double a YE 21 vs 20.
Maybe I should calculate the upside volatility of my funds and pay attention to that.
Or I could use volume of a similar ETF as a proxy. So far, this year, RYPNX has been meh,
so I don't expect a big distribution for 2025.
The cool part if that Microsoft Copilot seems to want to work with me on this:
Q: "What us a useful model for predicting mutual fund capital gain distributions in advance?"
A: [edited]: "Would you like help building a predictive model using historical fund data?
I can assist with data sourcing, feature selection, and model development."