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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Fed's Mester says inclusion important for achieving strong economy
    “Opportunity and inclusion are important for achieving a strong economy ... Policymakers can improve economic mobility by increasing access to high-quality education, helping all households gain access to high speed internet and eliminating systemic inequities in access to credit and financial services” Mester said. Story
    Duh.
    No disrespect to Mester. Just find it incredible that this needed to be said at all or that it took a Fed Reserve official saying it to make news. It would seem so damned obvious. Relates back to the recent Ray Dalio thread in some ways.
  • What are your 5 or 6 largest holdings? *Or where are the bulk of your holdings?*
    Hi @wxman123,
    AKREX, very concerned about valuation, price to sales of top holdings such as V and MA. While the fund obviously has done great, I'm not convinced that it will remain so when the Fed Reserve take the foot of the gas
    Fund doesn't do much selling and I'm looking for a fund that might be more apt to buy/sell, be more nimble going forward especially if I am looking for an active fund mgmt and not "passive" indexing. Saw an interview and they asked Akre about valuations and when he would sell and basically he said never, stock would grow into its valuation, well maybe yes but maybe no.
    We'll see what happens.
    Good Luck / Best Regards,
    Baseball_Fan

    Thanks, not sure I see the issue but appreciate the explanation. If I could have only one stock fund AKREX would be it. Never a down year. Amazing 10 year sharp ratio and standard deviation. Up on average over 17%/yr for past 10 years and didn't get there by being up 80% this year. I also see that the fund picked up 3 new positions in 2020 in its highly concentrated 20 stock portfolio. This fund should not be compared to ARKW or other high flyers, though there is a place for those over time.
  • What's going on at the Matthews funds?
    Or it maybe time to sell ?!
    Stay Safe, Derf
    Not a bad idea. Seems many others have been doing that as well. I just checked Morningstar. Matthews has had -$4bn of net outflows from their funds through 8 months ended 8/31/2020 YTD. That's quite significant since the firm only manages $24bn total. Perhaps investors had a sense of some of the issues before this announcement? This news will obviously not help things.
  • Heartland Select Value Fund to be reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/809586/000110465920109266/tm2031929-1_497.htm
    497 1 tm2031929-1_497.htm 497
    HEARTLAND GROUP, INC.
    Heartland Select Value Fund
    Investor (HRSVX)
    Institutional (HNSVX)
    Supplement dated September 28, 2020 to the
    Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information, each dated May 1, 2020,
    as supplemented
    On September 28, 2020, the shareholders of the Heartland Select Value Fund (the “Select Value Fund”), a series of Heartland Group, Inc. (the “Company”), approved the reorganization of the Select Value Fund into the Heartland Mid Cap Value Fund (the “Mid Cap Value Fund”), also a series of the Company (the “Reorganization”).
    At the time of the Reorganization, shareholders of the Select Value Fund will become shareholders of the Mid Cap Value Fund, receiving shares of the applicable class of the Mid Cap Value Fund equal in value to the corresponding class of shares of the Select Value Fund held immediately prior to the Reorganization. After the Reorganization is complete, the Select Value Fund will be liquidated. The Reorganization is intended to qualify as a tax-free transaction for federal income tax purposes.
    The Reorganization is expected to close on or about October 19, 2020.
    Purchases with respect to the Select Value Fund will be permitted through the close of business on October 16, 2020.
    This Supplement should be retained with your Prospectus
    and Statement of Additional Information for future reference.
    The date of this Supplement is September 28, 2020
  • Transferring TRP Account to a Broker

    VF -Someday when you have time maybe you could compose for us a “Selling Puts for Dummies“ guide. It’s something my feeble brain has yet to fully grasp. Possibly others would also like to understand the process better. While I’m not interested in doing such, some of my fund managers employ it - thus the interest in better comprehending.
    Take care.
    Honestly so many others can do so much better job of explaining than I. Youtube has several good videos. When you start getting a little sophisticated - I (ahem) am getting there - then look at TastyTrade. I'm taking my time, don't have to do anything exotic.
    Here's an example.
    Would you mind owning TSLA at $200 in the next 56 days. Your answer has to be YES.
    Look at how much put for TSLA is selling expiring 11/20 here...
    https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/TSLA/options?expiration=2020-11-20-m&moneyness=allRows
    Answer = $2.25.
    1 put controls 100 shares. Mortals need to cash secure their puts. 100 shares of TSLA at 200 cost $20K.
    On 11/20 if price if TSLA is below $200 you will receive 100 shares of TSLA. THIS is your risk, BUT you already accepted it. If it is above $200 you earned $2.25 x 100 = $225. $225 on $20K. A recent of over 1% in 56 days. 6% annualized.
    This works for me because I invest very conservatively. IT is not for every one.
  • MOAT Now Has a Value Tilt
    Thank you for sharing this info.
    Since it's inception VFIAX(SP500) has e better risk/reward and why SP500 Sharpe+Sortino is better. See PV(link)
    VFIAX beats MOAT for YTD and one year. See YTD (chart)
  • The Presidential Election Correction Continues
    (link)
    Lance Roberts, Chief Investment Strategist, RIA Advisors
    After having been in the investing world for more than 25 years from private banking and investment management to private and venture capital; Lance has pretty much “been there and done that” at one point or another. His common-sense approach, clear explanations and “real world” experience has appealed to audiences for over a decade. Lance is also the Chief Editor of the Real Investment Report, a weekly subscriber-based newsletter that is distributed nationwide. The newsletter covers economic, political and market topics as they relate to your money and life. He also writes the Real Investment Daily blog, which is read by thousands nationwide from individuals to professionals, and his opinions are frequently sought after by major media sources. Lance’s investment strategies and knowledge have been featured on CNBC, Fox Business News, Business News Network and Fox News. He has been quoted by a litany of publications from the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Bloomberg, The New York Times, The Washington Post all the way to TheStreet.com. His writings and research have also been featured on several of the nation’s biggest financial blog sites such as the Pragmatic Capitalist, Credit Write-downs, The Daily Beast, Zero Hedge and Seeking Alpha.
    Over the last couple of weeks, we have been discussing the ongoing market correction. As we stated last week:
    “As shown in the chart below, we had suggested a correction back to previous market highs was likely but could extend to the 50-dma. So far, the correction has played out much as we anticipated.”
    However, we also said:​​ “However, while we expect a rally next week, due to the short-term oversold condition of the market, there is a downside risk to the 200-dma, which is another 5% lower from current levels. Such would entail a near 14% decline from the peak, which is well within the historical norms of corrections during any given year.”
    On Friday, due to the “quad-witching options expiration” (when all options contracts for the current strike month expire and rollover), the market gave up support at the 50-dma, as shown below.
    The good news, if you want to call it that, is the market did hold a previous level of minor support and remains oversold short-term.
    As such, the break of the 50-dma must recover early next week, or it will put the 200-dma into focus. That is currently about 7% lower than where we closed on Friday.
  • how to make things worse, also better
    Let's grant for the moment that a comparison between one year performance and eight year performance is unbiased. By this premise, when investing for the long term (say, at least four years), one need only look at a fund's most recent performance. There's no point in looking at long term performance since the implicit premise is that there's no historical bias from one year to the next.
    (Never mind that the S&P 500 lost nearly 1%/year on average throughout the 2000s; we need only look at the 26% return for 2009.)
    So let's use Dessauer's unbiased approach of gauging performance by looking at recent figures. But to really be unbiased, we should use the most recent figures, not stale ones from 2019. Sure those figures were most recent US Census annual data, but there's monthly data available from other government agencies.
    Here's a page that uses monthly data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. This page finds that median household income dropped 1.5% from February through July, 2020.
    https://finance.townhall.com/columnists/politicalcalculations/2020/09/01/draft-n2575434
    The site links to a more detailed page. Like the report you cited, it too looks at Y/Y figures. It just uses more recent data. Voters need current factual information to guide them when they vote.
    https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2020/09/median-household-income-in-july-2020.html#.X24nfaL7xaS
    The year-over-year rate of change for median household income confirms the sharp deceleration in this measure in both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms. Both measures are falling at the fastest pace observed to date in the 21st century.
  • Goldman Sachs International Small Cap Insights Fund to reopen to new investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/822977/000119312520248949/d90165d497.htm
    497 1 d90165d497.htm GOLDMAN SACHS TRUST
    GOLDMAN SACHS TRUST
    Goldman Sachs International Equity Insights Funds
    Class A, Class C, Institutional, Investor, Class P and Class R6 Shares of the
    Goldman Sachs International Small Cap Insights Fund (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated September 18, 2020 to the
    Prospectuses, Summary Prospectuses and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”),
    each dated February 28, 2020, as supplemented to date
    Effective October 19, 2020, the Fund will reopen for investment by new investors for such period as Goldman Sachs Trust and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC deems appropriate based on various considerations, including the Fund’s capacity. Exchanges into the Fund from other Goldman Sachs Funds will also be permitted. Goldman Sachs Trust and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC reserve the right to close the Fund without prior notice.
    This Supplement should be retained with your Prospectuses, Summary Prospectuses and SAI for future reference.
    INTINS3OPSSTK 09-20
  • how to make things worse, also better
    John Dessauer’s market review and update as of Wednesday September 23, 2020
    The political bias is frightening. Voters need factual information to guide them when they vote.
    The median household income for Americans grew at a 6.8% rate last year, the largest annual increase on record. In dollar terms, U.S. household income rose $4,379 last year to $68,709. This is nearly 50% more that during the eight years of Barack Obama’s Presidency. Obviously, that is what so many in the media don’t want you to know. Whether you like President Trump or not, his policies work, meaning benefit almost all Americans. Minorities did especially well. Median household incomes increased 7.1% for Hispanics, 7.9% for Blacks and 10.6% for Asians. That compares with a 5.7% increase for whites.
    Income inequality, a big political issue, also declined in 2019. The bottom quintile’s share of income grew 2.4%, with many lower earners rising into the middle class.
    “These income gains weren’t magical. Policy changes mattered. The Obama Administration’s obsession with income redistribution and regulation retarded business investment and economic growth.
    https://johndessauerinvestments.com/weekly-hotline
  • Vanguard New Jersey and Pennsylvania Municipal Money Market Funds to liquidate

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788606/000168386320013403/f6980d1.htm
    497 1 f6980d1.htm VANGUARD PENNSYLVANIA MUNICIPAL MONEY MARKET 497
    Vanguard Pennsylvania Municipal Money Market Fund
    Supplement to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Dated March 27, 2020
    Important Changes to Vanguard Pennsylvania Municipal Money Market Fund
    On September 24, 2020, the board of trustees for Vanguard Pennsylvania Municipal Money Market Fund (the Fund) approved a proposal to liquidate and dissolve the Fund on or about November 24, 2020 (the liquidation date). In anticipation of the liquidation and dissolution, the Fund will be closed to new investors at the start of business on September 25, 2020, and will be closed to new investments at the start of business on November 5, 2020.
    On the liquidation date, the Fund will redeem all of its outstanding shares at the net asset value of such shares. On this same date, all outstanding shares of the Fund will be canceled and the Fund will cease operations as a mutual fund.
    In order to provide for an orderly liquidation and satisfy redemptions in anticipation of the liquidation, the Fund may deviate from its investment objective and strategies as the liquidation date approaches.
    Prior to the liquidation date, the Fund will declare and pay its shareholders of record one or more dividends, other distributions of its investment company taxable income, if any, and/or net realized capital gains.
    The liquidation and dissolution is not expected to result in income tax liability for the Fund. The Fund may pay more than one liquidating distribution in more than one installment. Distribution of liquidation proceeds, if any, to Fund shareholders may result in a taxable event for shareholders, depending on their individual circumstances. Shareholders should consult their own tax advisors about any tax liability resulting from the receipt of liquidation proceeds.
    © 2020 The Vanguard Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
    Vanguard Marketing Corporation, Distributor.
  • Vanguard New Jersey and Pennsylvania Municipal Money Market Funds to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/821404/000168386320013400/f6985d1.htm
    497 1 f6985d1.htm NEW JERSEY MUNICIPAL MONEY MARKET FUND
    Vanguard New Jersey Municipal Money Market Fund
    Supplement to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Dated March 27, 2020
    Important Changes to Vanguard New Jersey Municipal Money Market Fund
    On September 24, 2020, the board of trustees for Vanguard New Jersey Municipal Money Market Fund (the Fund) approved a proposal to liquidate and dissolve the Fund on or about November 24, 2020 (the liquidation date). In anticipation of the liquidation and dissolution, the Fund will be closed to new investors at the start of business on September 25, 2020, and will be closed to new investments at the start of business on November 5, 2020.
    On the liquidation date, the Fund will redeem all of its outstanding shares at the net asset value of such shares. On this same date, all outstanding shares of the Fund will be canceled and the Fund will cease operations as a mutual fund.
    In order to provide for an orderly liquidation and satisfy redemptions in anticipation of the liquidation, the Fund may deviate from its investment objective and strategies as the liquidation date approaches.
    Prior to the liquidation date, the Fund will declare and pay its shareholders of record one or more dividends, other distributions of its investment company taxable income, if any, and/or net realized capital gains.
    The liquidation and dissolution is not expected to result in income tax liability for the Fund. The Fund may pay more than one liquidating distribution in more than one installment. Distribution of liquidation proceeds, if any, to Fund shareholders may result in a taxable event for shareholders, depending on their individual circumstances. Shareholders should consult their own tax advisors about any tax liability resulting from the receipt of liquidation proceeds.
    © 2020 The Vanguard Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
    Vanguard Marketing Corporation, Distributor. PS 014A 092020
    Vanguard Pennsylvania Municipal Money Market Fund
    Vanguard New Jersey Municipal Money Market Fund
    Supplement to the Statement of Additional Information Dated March 27, 2020
    Important Changes to Vanguard Pennsylvania Municipal Money Market Fund and Vanguard New Jersey Municipal Money Market Fund
    On September 24, 2020, the board of trustees for each of the Vanguard Pennsylvania Municipal Money Market Fund and the Vanguard New Jersey Municipal Money Market Fund (the Funds) approved a proposal to liquidate and dissolve the Funds on or about November 24, 2020 (the liquidation date). In anticipation of the liquidation and dissolution, the Funds will be closed to new investors at the start of business on September 25, 2020, and will be closed to new investments at the start of business on November 5, 2020.
    On the liquidation date, each Fund will redeem all of its outstanding shares at the net asset value of such shares. On this same date, all outstanding shares of each Fund will be canceled and each Fund will cease operations as a mutual fund.
    In order to provide for an orderly liquidation and satisfy redemptions in anticipation of the liquidation, each Fund may deviate from its investment objective and strategies as the liquidation date approaches.
    Prior to the liquidation date, the Fund will declare and pay its shareholders of record one or more dividends, other distributions of its investment company taxable income, if any, and/or net realized capital gains.
    The liquidation and dissolution is not expected to result in income tax liability for either Fund. Each Fund may pay more than one liquidating distribution in more than one installment. Distribution of liquidation proceeds, if any, to Fund shareholders may result in a taxable event for shareholders, depending on their individual circumstances. Shareholders should consult their own tax advisors about any tax liability resulting from the receipt of liquidation proceeds.
    © 2020 The Vanguard Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
  • MOAT Now Has a Value Tilt
    I've been a MOATer since late 2012. Lots of unrealized gains, which will remain unrealized. I liked the premise of this etf. I haven't purchased more as the valuation has grown without more new money.
  • What's going on at the Matthews funds?
    I was invested in Tiffany's China Small fund earlier this year and sold to capitalize on some enormous gains. I was looking to invest again with her, but this time in the Asia Small fund, which she became lead on a few months back. I always enjoyed speaking with her to get an update on the fund and hear about what's going on in Asia - she is always exuberant and full of energy. Sad to see her go, but I assume she'll do something similar at Artisan?
    And I just found out about the Global CIO (what's difference wit CIO Robert Horrocks?) and President departing yesterday from FundFire! Has there been any explanation for his 6 month tenure? Fundfire mentioned two other executives, COO being one of them, also left this year after a very short tenure. President/Global CIO, COO and PMs all leaving in the span of 6 months. Feels like something is off? Big exodus sounds about right.
  • how to make things worse, also better
    those who fail to remember the past yada yada:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/business/economy/us-economy-pandemic.html
    and then charts 2 and 3 here:
    https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2020/the-macroeconomic-consequences-trump-vs-biden.pdf
    Moody's Analytics comparison of Biden v Trump (D v R sweep) on jobs / growth: Biden plan adds 7.4 MILLION MORE JOBS than Trump. "The economic outlook is weakest under the scenario in which Trump and the Republicans sweep Congress and fully adopt their economic agenda." [Economist Jared Bernstein] That's cuz they mostly ... wait for it ... cut taxes. Never get to full emp. ... In other words, in the Moody's model, Biden does high-multiplier stuff that reaches working families, Trump does the opposite.
  • What's going on at the Matthews funds?
    Numbers Gal: David discussed these departures in this month's Commentary. https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2020/09/matthews-asia-high-profile-shuffle-limited-downside/
    Also, as of today, an Artisan spokesperson confirmed that Hsiao has also joined Artisan, but in what capacity, we don't know. The Barron's article is behind a paywall "'A Leading Money Manager for Asian Stocks Is Seeing a Big Exodus." You can probably read it via a private window.
  • Virtus KAR Small-Mid Cap Growth Fund in registration
    Curiously, I ran across this family in looking at SCG funds that market themselves as value funds. That came up in another thread.
    Comparing Virtus KAR Small-Cap Value Fund's (PQSAX) prospectus with this one shows how worthless stated strategies often are. These two are cut from the same boilerplate. Below are the lead paragraphs in their respective Principal Investment Strategies section.
    The main difference is only in market cap (small/mid vs. small). Both this "growth" fund and the other "value" fund say they invest in companies believed to be "undervalued" relative to their "growth" potential. I've tried to highlight the market cap differences between the two funds.
    Small-Mid Cap Growth Fund
    The fund seeks long-term capital appreciation by investing in small- and mid-capitalization stocks with lower overall risk characteristics. The fund invests in a select group of small- and mid-market capitalization companies believed to be undervalued relative to their future growth potential. The investment strategy emphasizes companies the subadviser believes to have a sustainable competitive advantage, strong management and low financial risk and to be able to grow over market cycles. Although the fund invests primarily in U.S. companies, it may invest in foreign securities and American Depositary Receipts.
    Small-Cap Value Fund
    The fund pursues long-term capital appreciation in the small market capitalization sector while seeking to incur less risk than the small capitalization value market. The fund invests in a select group of small market capitalization believed by the fund’s subadviser to be undervalued relative to their future growth potential. The investment strategy emphasizes companies the subadviser believes to have a sustainable competitive advantage, strong management and low financial risk and to be able to grow over market cycles. Although the fund invests primarily in U.S. companies, it may invest in foreign securities and depositary receipts.companies.
    Small Cap Value prospectus (and prospectus for the family's other funds):
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/34273/000110465920006713/tv536302_485bpos.htm
  • Why the Return from Dividends Matters
    Short but sweet explanation the role dividends (total return) play in the S&P 500 index:
    Some of the responses on Twitter weren’t terribly impressed. To generalize, they said,“so what, it’s just a 2% dividend yield. Big deal.”
    But in my view, it’s a very impressive chart and it shows us the importance of dividends.
    Allow me to explain
    .
    why-the-return-from-dividends-matters
  • Billionaire investor Ray Dalio on capitalism’s crisis: The world is going to change in shocking ways
    Ray Dalio certainly is no radical idealist, but in his frequent writings and media appearances the veteran investor consistently calls for Americans to rewrite their longstanding contract with capitalism so that it is fairer and more generous to more people.
    Otherwise, he predicts, life in the U.S. could become more difficult: mountainous debt that stunts economic growth; fewer opportunities for ordinary citizens to get ahead financially; and a worldwide lack of trust in the U.S. dollar that diminishes Americans’ purchasing power and could lower their standard of living.
    So exactly how is changing capitalism to be "fairer" going to control "mountainous debt that stunts economic growth? The government will always overspend. Think that can be wished away? It is always funny to see the rich, once they have made it, to get religion.
    But thank goodness that we have a President doing something about "our competitive advantage" Dalio is so worried about.
  • Vanguard Prime Money Market (VMMXX)
    (Filing excerpt from Shadow) These changes will be effective on or about September 29, 2020
    (my comment) even if you stay with the fund, you'll get the lower yield of a government MMF
    The changes are still officially a week away, and sure enough the SEC yield of Prime has dropped to the same 0.05% yield as that of its Federal MMF. The fund already held 7/8 of its assets in government paper at the end of August.
    If you can afford the $50K min, the Treasury MMF (VUSXX) now seems to be the winner in every way, if one can call a 0.06% yield "winning". It's safer since it holds all Treasuries, no repurchase agreements. In a taxable account it is state tax-free. And it is not losing its checkwriting feature (though you'd have to hold it through Vanguard's legacy mutual fund platform to be able to write checks directly against this fund).
    With MMF yields this low even at Vanguard, it is hard to find reasons to use a MMF at all now.