Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

In this Discussion

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

    Support MFO

  • Donate through PayPal

how to make things worse, also better

those who fail to remember the past yada yada:

and then charts 2 and 3 here:

Moody's Analytics comparison of Biden v Trump (D v R sweep) on jobs / growth: Biden plan adds 7.4 MILLION MORE JOBS than Trump. "The economic outlook is weakest under the scenario in which Trump and the Republicans sweep Congress and fully adopt their economic agenda." [Economist Jared Bernstein] That's cuz they mostly ... wait for it ... cut taxes. Never get to full emp. ... In other words, in the Moody's model, Biden does high-multiplier stuff that reaches working families, Trump does the opposite.


  • All that we need to do now is show that to Trump voters and I'm sure they'll immediately change their minds.
  • Nope. Sometimes exposing how corrupt (Steele dossier, fake impeachment, fake Russian involvment, Comey etc.) this government is is worth a few bucks.
  • John Dessauer’s market review and update as of Wednesday September 23, 2020

    The political bias is frightening. Voters need factual information to guide them when they vote.

    The median household income for Americans grew at a 6.8% rate last year, the largest annual increase on record. In dollar terms, U.S. household income rose $4,379 last year to $68,709. This is nearly 50% more that during the eight years of Barack Obama’s Presidency. Obviously, that is what so many in the media don’t want you to know. Whether you like President Trump or not, his policies work, meaning benefit almost all Americans. Minorities did especially well. Median household incomes increased 7.1% for Hispanics, 7.9% for Blacks and 10.6% for Asians. That compares with a 5.7% increase for whites.

    Income inequality, a big political issue, also declined in 2019. The bottom quintile’s share of income grew 2.4%, with many lower earners rising into the middle class.

    “These income gains weren’t magical. Policy changes mattered. The Obama Administration’s obsession with income redistribution and regulation retarded business investment and economic growth.
  • Let's grant for the moment that a comparison between one year performance and eight year performance is unbiased. By this premise, when investing for the long term (say, at least four years), one need only look at a fund's most recent performance. There's no point in looking at long term performance since the implicit premise is that there's no historical bias from one year to the next.

    (Never mind that the S&P 500 lost nearly 1%/year on average throughout the 2000s; we need only look at the 26% return for 2009.)

    So let's use Dessauer's unbiased approach of gauging performance by looking at recent figures. But to really be unbiased, we should use the most recent figures, not stale ones from 2019. Sure those figures were most recent US Census annual data, but there's monthly data available from other government agencies.

    Here's a page that uses monthly data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. This page finds that median household income dropped 1.5% from February through July, 2020.

    The site links to a more detailed page. Like the report you cited, it too looks at Y/Y figures. It just uses more recent data. Voters need current factual information to guide them when they vote.
    The year-over-year rate of change for median household income confirms the sharp deceleration in this measure in both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms. Both measures are falling at the fastest pace observed to date in the 21st century.
  • @msf

    You're a treasure.

    Thank you.
Sign In or Register to comment.