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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Mutual fund SVARX
    Thanks, davfor. Interesting how SVARX brought exposure down from highly leveraged at 12-2019 206% all the way down to 28% in 1Q 2020. Sometimes market timing works.
  • Mutual fund SVARX
    For anyone with an interest, here are a couple more links:
    1. Spectrum Investment Advisors - archive of links to quarterly Newsletters:
    https://client.spectruminvestor.com/189/quarterly-newsletters/2020-newsletters
    2. Spectrum Financial Inc. - Archive of links to the quarter Full Spectrum newsletter. Scroll down the page to get to the archived links:
    https://investspectrum.com/newsletter.cshtml
  • Firstrade Brokerage- A mutual fund buyers/sellers heaven -My Experience
    I re-balance twice yearly. Also I prefer to reapportion monthly dividends/gains to positions of my own choice based on the economy, my current financial and tax situation or cash needs. Typically I would do about 40 buys/sells a year. At Wellstrade that would have been $1,600/yr. At Fidelity about $800-1000/yr. Same at Vanguard. A free cash management account with checks/ATM card is available with 25K or more in the account, which I have. With the greater availability of cheaper institutional/advisor class funds and all no load funds (over 12,000) being NTF this was a no brainer for me. As always ,each to his/her own. I realized great cost savings and I wanted to share this ,with those who might be interested.
  • Mutual fund SVARX
    The April 2020 quarterly newsletter describes the SVARX active management approach over the preceding two years. The chart provides a good visual description. Scroll down to the Active Management section of the newsletter. (Reviewing the 12/31/19 and and 3/31/20 portfolio composition in the table above that section is also instructive.)
    THE FULL SPECTRUM - April 2020
    Thanks for the info. The chart in the link above is worth watching and see how SVARX compared to PIMIX and other bond funds
    image
    But since 2020 SVARX made so much more than these funds, see 1 year (chart) and how PIMIX lost more than 12% while SVARX lost less than 2%
    Reminder: there is no guarantee that risk/reward will continue. I'm not going to buy it because I have been doing my own trading and portfolio protection.
  • T Rowe Price
    Just wondering if there’s an option to upload documents to TRP’S website so you don’t have to rely on the mail being sorted? I’ve used this option at Schwab in the past and am in the process of doing the same to transfer a 401k out of the nightmare called Empower Retirement so as to eliminate one weak link in the chain.
    I did find out an interesting tid-bit though, not all closed funds are really closed funds. He told me that if the amount is large enough for moving 401k funds in, that they could be deposited into currently closed funds. I've been looking at PRWCX Capital Appreciation and was told I could open an account and actually deposit funds into it if it's the right amount. Does this sound right?
    Yes, this is a open secret that occasionally comes up here. I used this loophole by transferring part of a small 401k to TRP and opening a Rollover IRA in PRWCX a couple of years ago.
    Then I transferred one share of PRWCX from this new IRA to an existing IRA at Fido. This let me buy additional shares of PRWCX in my Fido IRA.
  • QQQ for young-ish adult first timer....seems to be a decent starting place.
    VONE* has outperformed VFIAX and VTSAX** over the trailing 5 Yr. and 10 Yr. periods ending on 12/31/2020. You may also want to consider VTCLX. It is an actively-managed mutual fund which tracks the Russell 1000.
    Its unique approach attempts to track the benchmark, while minimizing taxable gains and dividend income by purchasing index securities that pay lower dividends.
    Here are some comparison charts:
    5 Yr
    10 Yr
    15 Yr
    *09/20/2010 inception date, excluded from 15 Yr. comparison
    **benchmark index changed from MSCI to CRSP on 06/03/2013
  • QQQ for young-ish adult first timer....seems to be a decent starting place.
    Is it really the midcaps that make VONE/VRNIX look better? Over its lifetime it has performed slightly worse than VV/VLCAX, which has a higher average market cap ($167B vs. $132B) and less market coverage (85% vs. 92%).
    M* chart comparing VRNIX with VLCAX over VRNIX's lifetime (starting 9/21/2010).
    Is the relative underperformance of VFIAX due perhaps to what @catch22 suggested - the S&P 500 exclusion of TSLA, which has since been "corrected"? Or perhaps it's just a matter of "what have you done for me lately?". These can be tested by chopping the last year off the chart and doing another comparison. This time I've added VFIAX (S&P 500) and VTSAX (CRSP total market index, covering 100% of the US market).
    M* chart comparing VFIAX (S&P 500), VLCAX (CRSP LC index), VRNIX (R1K), VTSAX (CRSP total market), 9/21/2010 to 1/16/2020
    The total returns are in that order: VFIAX > VLCAX > VRNIX > VTSAX
    Personally, if I were investing in an index fund like this, I wouldn't bet on a particular part of the market. I'd just buy the whole market and be done with it. Or if I really wanted a large cap index fund, I'd avoid the S&P (I'm not fond of its methodology).
    Though it hasn't created cap gains distributions, VRNIX's 8.7% turnover ratio is higher than VLCAX's 1.6%. VFIAX has a 1.8% turnover ratio as of 12/31/2020, so that may already include the impact of having added TSLA.
  • World Stock Funds-Are they a viable alternative?
    @MikeW: I tried to get a discussion going a couple of weeks ago about Distillate Capital, the company running DSTL and DSTX. Kiplinger's put me onto checking out this manager in its listing of the best ETFs for 2021. DSTL figures in the list and it had been a previous recommendation. You know I've been a fan of MOAT and CAPE (or the OEF strategy DSENX) for some time. I like relatively concentrated funds with a comprehensible (to me) strategies; the Distillate theory of free cash flow and how a security's value should be determined as well as the fact that DSTL has outperformed MOAT and CAPE since its inception pushed me to read the DC white papers on their website and to dip my toe in DSTL. DSTX uses the same value strategy as applied to international stocks and I am willing to put some bucks into it as a vehicle for testing my belief that international and value will do well in this climate. On the domestic SC side, I bought CSB to play the rise in SCV and that is working out. Check out Distillate Capital; their stuff is readable.
  • Mutual fund SVARX
    The April 2020 quarterly newsletter describes the SVARX active management approach over the preceding two years. The chart provides a good visual description. Scroll down to the Active Management section of the newsletter. (Reviewing the 12/31/19 and and 3/31/20 portfolio composition in the table above that section is also instructive.)
    THE FULL SPECTRUM - April 2020
  • Mutual fund SVARX
    Don’t forget the most important part of the fund.
    The 49% leverage and the huge position in swaps.
    With the recent spike in the 10 year and if the rise in interest rates continues, the higher borrowing costs will be detrimental to this funds huge position in leverage.
    Do your own due diligence on this fund.
    Absolutely do your own diligence. First, we don't know how long or how high the leverage has been. Second, the 10 year was much higher years ago and the fund did OK too. Third, the manager has been using short positions too. Per M* fund holdings I can see 2 positions at -10.03% and -9.89
    I found the semi-annual report from 3/31/2020 (link)and more than 50% is in treasury bills, mutual funds about 30%, MM at 13.8%(maybe used for leverage).
    ===============
    JD_co: that's correct, Ralph Doudera, also runs HFSAX/SFHYX which also has a good risk/reward, but the min is 1 million for HFSAX at Schwab and the other is only for institutional customers. I can still buy SVARX at $5000 min + $49.95 fee, but I can't buy the Ins SVASX, Schwab doesn't recognize it.
    3 years performance/SD...HFSAX 14.5/7.6...SPY 14.1/18.7
  • T Rowe Price
    Thanks. On another note, their call wait music is the bomb...well not so much after the first 2 hours.
    Brubeck is great, but yeah, the same refrain from Time Out on repeat is deafening.
    I tried to do some moves to cash reserve online and had to call in. The first rep sounded like he was in a broom closet and dropped my call transferring off speaker phone. Second rep was very patient and helpful, but the transactions took almost 2 hours on the phone. I did find out an interesting tid-bit though, not all closed funds are really closed funds. He told me that if the amount is large enough for moving 401k funds in, that they could be deposited into currently closed funds. I've been looking at PRWCX Capital Appreciation and was told I could open an account and actually deposit funds into it if it's the right amount. Does this sound right?
    Last time I did a similar transfer to yours it took all of ten minutes. I wondering if the new division/group is having an impact? That is another question all together.
  • Chief Investment Strategist Discusses Market & Economy
    Liz Ann Sonders is the featured guest on this episode of 'The Long View' podcast. Link
    Schwab's chief investment strategist discusses the impact of the pandemic in 2020 and what the new year will bring for the market and the economy.
  • Mutual fund SVARX
    This might be considered cherry-picking of data, but if you remove a really great 2020 (+24.1%), then SVARX returns are less impressive - though still not too shabby:
    2019 ..... 9.42%
    2018 .... -0.99%
    2017 .... 8.26%
    2016 ... 16.45%
    2015 .... 1.08%
    2014 .... 2.41%
    Whatever instruments SVARX uses behind the scenes have certainly helped it maintain a very low down-market capture rate. Wish there was more color on that.
  • Mutual fund SVARX
    My PRWCX owns bonds. So does BRUFX. Disregarding those two, you prompted me to check my own performance re: my bond funds. PTIAX grew by $1,200 on account of automatic monthly deposits through the year. But the performance numbers we all use do not take that sort of thing into account. Those statistics are measuring a "static" amount of shares held through the year.
    Anyway: PTIAX is 7.63% of my portf. (2020 perf. +5.73%)
    PRSNX 22.63% of portf. (2020 +8.14%)
    RPSIX 22.88% of portf. (2020 perf. +6.06%)
    I worked out a weighted average and it comes to +6.9% for 2020, which seems just a bit high, but I did use a specific online tool which gives weighted averages. You just have to be accurate with the numbers you're entering. I sat on these three funds through the year, and did nothing. Zilch. I'm pretty happy.
  • Mutual fund SVARX
    I only started following this fund in the last several months.
    SVARX is a fund of other fixed income funds. The ER=2.95 is very high, but the results are very good. Several of these funds have ER of 1.5% already. BTW, in 03/2020 the fund lost less than 2% peak to trough. The risk-adjusted performance easily beat VBINX+VWIAX
    As of 1/15/2020: (One year SD is from PortVis)
    SVARX performance/SD...............1 year=23.4%/6.4.......3 year=10.4% annually/5.4.....5 year=11.4% annually/4.9.
    VBINX (60/40) performance/SD.....1 year=23.4%/16.8.....3 year=11.2% annually/11.9...5 year=11.15 annually/9.7.
    VWIAX (40/60) performance/SD.....1 year=23.4%/11.55...3 year=7.2% annually/7.7......5 year=8.0% annually/6.3.
    When you look at their (site) they do a good job not to mention the fact they invest in other fixed income funds.
    Their top funds from M* as of 9/30/2020 are and by now it's probably different :)
    IOFIX=special securitized
    NHYIX=HY
    Recv Nuveen Prf Secs Inc
    Pimco Govt Mm Instl
    BDKNX=special securitized
    Eaton Vance Floating=bank loans
    Ishares Tr Pfd Inc S (-10%)
    CMOYX=CLMAX=special securitized
    The yield is low under 1% for 2020 and about 3-3.5% for 2019 and about 2.5% in 2018.
    So, if you are looking for a good risk/reward fund, maybe that's the one. See one year (chart) and change to 3-5.
    ===================
    I'm not sure what the managers of SVARX are doing, but I managed my own portfolio with the following goals: making more than 6% annually, never losing more than 3% from any last top, SD under 3. In the last 3 years, since retirement in 2018, I have used mainly bond funds with several very short term (hours-days) of stocks/ETF/CEFs, usually very concentrated in 2-3 bond OEFs, using momentum and switching between best performing funds but also selling to cash when risk is very high as I did in Q4/2018 and Q1/2020. My portfolio risk-adjusted performance below as of 12/31/2020 are actually even better. Directly from Schwab, you can see below that SD=2.3 for both one and three years. The portfolio never lost more than 1% from any last top during 2018-2020.
    image imageimage
  • World Stock Funds-Are they a viable alternative?
    I have invested in ARTRX for several years - a very consistent fund with a reasonable drawdown in 2020. The manager has been running the func since inception - quite remarkable. Covers all developed global markets without emerging market exposure. I use separate funds dedicated to emerging market. The same management team also have a newer global fund that has some EM but this fund adds another 0.30% to the expense ratio.
  • QQQ for young-ish adult first timer....seems to be a decent starting place.
    Stock valuation is all time high. I would consider a total market index fund instead. You will have a broader exposure to many sectors.
    COVID cases are running rampant and we could return to March 2020 scenario again.
  • QQQ for young-ish adult first timer....seems to be a decent starting place.
    QQQ is not very diversified since its allocation to the technology sector was 48.21% as of Sept. 30, 2020.
    Technology stocks in general have performed well over the past decade.
    What happens when tech stocks incur steep losses (e.g. 2000 - 2002) in the future?
    QQQ excludes companies which are not listed on the NASDAQ exchange.
    An investor may miss out on some excellent companies listed on the NYSE.
    For these two siblings, I might suggest FSKAX or FXAIX instead.
  • Third Avenue International Real Estate Value Fund in registration
    Yes, the fund dropped 60%, and yes it held mortgage bond insurance companies other than MBI. Yes, it was painful. But it wasn't that much worse than the typical LCV fund. Here's a chart for peak to trough of the fund 10/11/07 to 3/9/09.
    It lost 61.34%. A LCV index fund (VVIAX) lost 58.97%. TAVFX did worse, sure. A lot worse? No. If you want to use the word "implode", it's the value side of the market that imploded. "Value trap" implies active stock selection, but passive management did just about as poorly. Whitman made some mistakes but he must have made a number of good calls as well to have come out average.
    Meanwhile, TAVFX's cumulative 10-year returns are less than one-fifth the broad market's.
    That's the post-Whitman era, which was my original point. He resigned as CIO over a decade ago, and as manager of TAVFX nine years ago. Without Whitman the fund has indeed turned in an absolutely abysmal performance - bottom 3% (though not quite as small as 1/5, closer to 1/3 as much total gain as that of the entire equity market). A whole lot worse on a relative basis than Whitman did before, during, and after the housing crisis.
    Regarding the particular mortgage bond insurers it held between Oct 2007 and March 2009, does it really matter? In Oct 2007 MBI constituted 64% of these holdings. FWIW, Radian (which M* says was primarily in other businesses) constituted 27%. The rest was noise.
    I recall that Whitman was involved in public disputes with another investor who was shorting that industry
    From the NYTimes (repeating a link from above):
    “MBIA is being victimized by an apparently well organized bear raid headed by William Ackman of Pershing Square Capital Management,” Mr. Whitman wrote.
  • Jim Cramer: We Keep Aiming Higher ... and Higher
    Mohamed El-Erian sees one risk that could get investors into serious trouble.
    "One of the most under covered stories is what’s happening to the US yield curve..."
    To me, he fall in the camp with Grantham, Hussman & Dr Doom. They all are right, but stimulus creates price momentum and price momentum fuels animal spirits. This, along with low inflation, low interest rates, and low wages, cloud their conclusions. Until then these things change (higher inflation, interest rates & wage growth) they will appear to be crying wolf.
    He's article:
    mohamed-el-erian-this-is-starting-to-get-to-dangerous-levels
    Article on Yield Curve Targeting:
    The new tool could enable the Fed to keep yields lower for longer, without necessarily continuing to expand its balance sheet.
    yield-curve-targeting