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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Stock and Bond Return Forecasts
    The economy will get back on solid ground when this pandemic is overcome by the vaccine. The rollout and getting them to the people has proven to be challenging, but it can be done. It was completely naive to say that everybody can get vaccinated by November 2020, or more like being a liar. It is about time to have the National Defense Authorization Act put forth. The sooner this pandemic is brought under control the quicker we all will return to our normal lives.
    The broadening of the market to other sectors in late 2020 indicated that US economy will return with the vaccine. China, New Zealand and Australia are already leading their recovery, so will US.
  • Small Caps
    Looking at MSSMX Eye watering YTD + 136.75% 1 year + 127.18% it holds overstock.com ++607.77% 1 year.. .too late ? The Wasatch small caps look greta also - alas... closed . It looks like best open option is ARTSX
    Yeah, you could have said something similar to that on 12/31/20:
    "WOW! MSSMX is UP 150% in 2020. I can't buy that now. I'm too late."
    Or, you could have bought it on 12/31/20 and be UP 16.5% YTD heading into today. Or have bought ARTSX on 12/31/20 and be UP 5.4% YTD.
    ARTSX is a great SCG fund and made my above-posted original scoping list. But MSSMX was my SCG choice because it has consistently outperformed virtually every other SCG fund over all time periods. And I see no reason to expect anything different than that going forward.
    Granted, MSSMX's SD is notably higher than most other SCG funds. BUT...as one legendary forum poster always used to say, "Volatility is the price you pay for growth."
    YMMV, and I think it does. I think you posted elsewhere that you are risk adverse and I replied that feast/famine EMs are therefore NOT the place for you to be. I would echo that same comment on SCG. SCV and FCPVX might be a better option for you in SCs.
    EDIT: WMICX is OPEN/NTF at Fido.
  • EM ESG Options
    A good background article, despite its date in 2018, can be found in this link to a NY Times article:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/13/business/finding-emerging-markets-stocks-with-social-consciences.html
    The Times article reviews many ESG strategies, including MFs, so I won’t repeat what is said there.
    Inspired by a recent M* finding that ESG MFs and ETFs have been outperforming the indices against which they are measured, I took a closer look at a recommended ETF for broad EM coverage, namely IEMG, as well as two ETFs that have portfolios based on ESG principles. Nuveen (now owned by TIAA, which has offered a Social Choice balanced fund for many years) offers NUEM, an EM ESG fund using its proprietary index. Two other choices in this area are XTrackers EMSG and a 2020 addition to the mix, iShares LDEM. Both of the latter funds eliminate some companies based on the business (tobacco, alcohol, gambling, etc.) and then they apply ESG screens to the remaining MSCI EM stocks to eliminate bad governance, pollution, corruption, and so forth.
    NUEM and EMSG have long enough track records to make comparisons possible. Since the lows of world markets in March, 2020, all EM funds have shot up. However, as predicted by the theorists and researchers, companies with higher ESG scores, including in this case EM companies, did outperform an index of unscreened firms. I lean towards NUEM because I know TIAA’s record in ESG investing. They may have a “secret sauce,” and were I looking to expand my EM allocation, this is where the money would go. If the theory is correct, long-term results should achieve similar outperformance.
  • Degree of Attribution of the "Robinhood" Investor to Market Advances (and Future Corrections)
    Here's some insight on the topic, albeit a bit dated from 08/2020.
    https://www.investors.com/news/robinhood-investors-charging-into-stock-investing-what-could-go-wrong/
    And some 2020 stats that another more learned poster may add some color to:
    https://www.businessofapps.com/data/robinhood-statistics/
    Excerpt;
    Robinhood Total Transactions
    2015 $500 million
    2017 $50 billion
    2018 $100 billion
    2019 $150 billion
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread
    It makes sense to be cautious when high equity valuations are considered.
    I rebalanced my portfolio in late 2020 / early 2021 to lessen risk.
    The current conditions don't necessarily preclude the "U.S. Market" from performing well this year.
    The state of the pandemic will be a major factor.
    I guess we'll have to see how it goes...
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread
    Agee. Trimmed some positions with large gain. Time to let cash to build up. Pandemic is far from over.
    Few opportunities I like beside cash. The value stocks have been overlooked and the valuation is reasonable. The market started to broaden out by end of 2020. YACKX holds high quality stocks while QRSVX holds smaller cap stocks (plus a large cash position).
    David has a detail review on HGGIX and the holdings are uniquely different from most global funds, a good approach to diversify both domestic and oversea stocks.
  • Firstrade Brokerage- A mutual fund buyers/sellers heaven -My Experience
    I'll first reiterate that if there's a specific fund that you want, there's a good chance that Firstrade has it with no brokerage-charged commission and that it may have a lower min than one would find elsewhere.
    That said, there are a lot of other statements that seem to be misunderstandings or misleading; or I don't understand.
    Every MF on the platform is NTF.
    If NTF means "no commission", that's true. But if it means no fee including no load, that doesn't appear to be the case. (Note that load funds are generally commission-free everywhere even though you may still have to pay the load.)
    Consider Praxis Genesis Growth Fund. It has only one share class, MGAFX. When I log in to Firstrade, go to the customer fund screener, check Fund Family (Praxis), and check Load Type (Load), this fund along with a few others shows up. (It does not show up if I select no load instead of load to screen.)
    FWIW, it appears to be NTF (really NTF, i.e. load-waived) at TD Ameritrade.
    Firstrade does sell this fund: I go to my mutual fund trading page (from the "Trading" drop down, select "Mutual Funds") and enter MGAFX. It says that at Firstrade the fund has a $1K min and three day settlement. Since I closed my account years ago I can't actually test a trade.
    The site is quirky in that the M* info page shows the normal 50,000 minimum [for VWIAX] but on the buy ticket the minimums change to $500
    Same as for me, so that's evidence that I'm looking at the same page when looking up VWIAX or MGAFX. Note that if one enters VWELX or VWENX one sees that Wellington is not open to new investors at Firstrade. But if you could open VWENX at Firstrade, you'd only need $500.
    Old joke: Customer - the guy down the street is selling the same thing at half the price
    Shopkeeper - why don't you go down the street and buy it there?
    Customer - he doesn't have any left
    after becoming a customer and opening an account (no minimum) that number became 11,090 no load NTF funds when you are signed into the site and click on the no load fund list and they are all listed as such.
    Yet the customer screener shows "just" 9,903 no load share classes. In addition, it shows 6,316 load share classes. To borrow from Graeme Edge of the Moody Blues: which is right and which is an illusion?. Buffalo Springfield also comes to mind.
    I re-balance twice yearly. Also I prefer to reapportion monthly dividends/gains to positions of my own choice based on the economy, my current financial and tax situation or cash needs. Typically I would do about 40 buys/sells a year. At Fidelity about $800-1000/yr
    At Fidelity, I can add to a TF position for $5 and sell for $0. 20 buys and 20 sells would run me $100 bucks.
    I'm glad you mentioned tax situation. Fidelity has had online cost basis services - specific lot identification and changing default disposal method - down pat for decades. These days, most other brokerages make it easy as well. All I've found so far at Firstrade is: "Please contact your broker if you wish to change the default tax-relief method for your account or specify different tax lots for liquidation".
    https://www.firstrade.com/content/en-us/accounts/taxcenter/?h=costbasis
    Though few in number, Firstrade does have some nickel and dime fees. It charges $15 (or $50) for check printing. It doesn't appear to provide ATM rebates and charges 3% for foreign transactions after the first one each month. (BTW, Fidelity's debit card is provided by PNC bank, not UMB.)
    Lewis asked about security against hacking. A question worth thinking about considering that I was able to log in years after closing my account by just looking up my old login/passwd/pin in my home files. The system didn't suggest that I might want to change my password (no password aging).
    It doesn't seem to offer two factor authentication, though it claims that a PIN constitutes "an additional factor". It does not.
    there are three generally recognized factors for authentication: something you know (such as a password), something you have (such as a hardware token or cell phone), and something you are (such as your fingerprint). Two-factor means the system is using two of these options."
    https://www.pcmag.com/how-to/two-factor-authentication-who-has-it-and-how-to-set-it-up
    As near as I can tell, Firstrade doesn't provide secure email.
    https://www.firstrade.com/content/en-us/customerservice/contactus
    (The internal contact page has a different URL but the same info.)
    Firstrade does meet legal requirements on security but doesn't seem to go beyond that.
    We maintain physical, electronic, and procedural safeguards that comply with federal standards to guard your personal information. We protect your account information by placing it on the secure portion of our website and use industrial strength firewalls and encryption technology to protect personal information on our computer systems.
    https://www.firstrade.com/content/en-us/customerservice/onlinesecurity/onlineprotectionguarantee
    Note that SIPC insurance (or excess insurance) only kicks in when a brokerage is in financial trouble or filing bankruptcy. It doesn't cover run of the mill hacking or identity theft.
    Firstrade, as with other brokerages (e.g. Fidelity), guarantees to cover your direct losses. This guarantee "does not include any tax consequences, legal fees and expenses, or any consequential, lost opportunity, special, indirect, incidental, punitive, exemplary or non-monetary damages."
  • Small Caps
    My PRDSX (domestic small-caps, but closed to new investors) did indeed have a great year in 2020, but compared to its category, it stunk. (+23.84%.) That ought to serve as yet another indicator. It just very well might be a fine time to pile into small-caps.
  • MFO Ratings Updated Through December 2020 - Year-End Data ... Yay!
    Yes indeed. GE, BA, XOM, OXY, WFC have enjoyed nice gains since November ... and, back to positive again today.
  • Small Caps
    IJR tracks the S&P 600 index. VTMSX is an actively managed fund which tracks the same index while attempting to minimize taxable gains.
    VSMAX tracks the CRSP U.S. Small Cap Index.
    It has more holdings and a higher median market cap than S&P 600 index funds.
    FSMAX tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index and VEXAX tracks the S&P Completion Index. Both of these extended market funds are designed to complement an S&P 500 index fund.
    These mid-cap funds have more holdings and higher median market caps compared to VSMAX.
    I would avoid funds which track the Russell 2000 index due to this index's inferior design.
  • Mutual fund SVARX
    One could argue that the fund has successfully navigated a very rough patch in 2020. It has very active management (and thus high turnover). We have beaten the dead horse as regards use of leverage.
    Can SVARX succeed while facing the next wave of market challenges (i.e. rising rates or the next black swan)? You would be trusting that "active management". The fund is nimble and the PM is not afraid to pivot.
  • Mutual fund SVARX
    I would like to know how I can find out how much leverage is used in a fund. I use the Schwab platform. Tkx!
    The above will not show you how much and how long leveraged was used over the years. The managers can change it anytime.
    I found the semi-annual report for SVARX (link) from 3/31/2020 and more than 50% is in treasury bills, mutual funds about 30%, MM at 13.8%(maybe used for leverage).
    What was the leverage 3-6-12 months prior at any time? no way to know
  • A Bad Day in the Stock Market is Basically a Bad Year in the Bond Market:
    Historical market data can’t help you predict the future but I still find it useful as a way to understand the potential risks and rewards you can see as an investor.
    image
    Looking through 93 years of returns for stocks, bonds and cash won’t help you predict future returns for these asset classes.
    But it can give you a better sense of the risk involved in these asset classes since risk is much easier to predict than returns.
    Stock, Bond & Cash Returns: 1928-2020
    stock-bond-cash-returns-1928-2020/
  • ETF HNDL
    CEF ROC can be destructive, constructive, or other.
    Here's M*'s writeup, via Fidelity, of pass-through and of and constructive ROC.
    https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/investment-products/closed-end-funds/return-of-capital-part-two
    I agree with you that in general ROC is destructive. This is why I tend to suggest caution in focusing too much on current yield. Whether from a CEF, ETF, or OEF, including OEFs comprised of bonds.
    If market rate on a one year bond is 1% and your bond has a 2% coupon, it will be priced at 101. A year from now (assuming one coupon per year for simplicity) you'll get that 2% in "interest" but you'll have lost 1% in principal. That 2% payment is really 1% in interest and 1% ROC. In fact, for individual bonds, that's how the IRS treats it. See boxes 11-13 on form 1099-INT.
    https://wiki.1099pro.com/download/attachments/89456651/image2020-5-18_11-3-3.png
  • Small Caps
    From another thread...
    newgirl
    January 17 Flag
    @Benwp and @MikeW ... I 'd love for you to start the thread on Small Cap and EM Asia .
    I am very interested in thorough analysis!

    Not either of those posters, and not sure I can provide thorough analysis, but...
    First, for EM, see a good discussion at
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/57597/some-questions-on-emerging-market-funds#latest
    Small Caps: IMO, the rotation is REAL and has been happening now for several months. Getting frothy perhaps but appears there is still a LONG way to go and it's not too late to participate. To wit, SCs are set to Rock the Casbah again this AM.
    First entry into the cat in a BIG way was on the value side, selected FCPVX (UP 7.3% YTD), then a smaller play with Foreign SCB/MCB FISMX (and its arguably unique splatter).
    More recently bot MSSMX (UP 11.3% YTD, UP 150% in 2020), Morgan Stanley's gem of a SCG fund.
    Others considered:
    SCG: WMICX, ARTSX, FDSCX, PXSGX, QUASX
    SCV: RYOFX
    EM SC: VAESX, WAEMX
    Foreign, EM and SC (all cats that generally require a bit of bravery/insanity for retirees at least) are providing some REAL energy to otherwise (temporarily?) lackluster, US LC-laden ports these days, and I expect that to continue this year and possibly beyond. Suggest DCA'ing at this point as an interim pullback seems likely. YMMV.
  • "Inflation is hiding in plain sight"
    Think of it this way: Inflation can be good for the seller and bad for the buyer. Investors, most of whom are high net worth, are the buyers of financial assets. But who is the seller in this case--the issuers of stocks and bonds. In the case of securitized assets for say credit cards, homes or auto loans, the sellers backing the issuers are people taking out loans and the more expensive the financial asset is for the buyer, the cheaper it is for the seller or issuer or in this case the debtor to finance their car or house or purchases or even their new businesses. Although sellers of equity are only corporations, there are advantages to having asset inflation there too, but to a lesser degree. High priced equity can be used to finance R&D or various other forms of growth in the right executive hands. Unfortunately, most CEOs haven't proven to be good long-term capital allocators and too often use their expensive equity to make equally expensive acquisitions, or to pay themselves rich bonuses.
  • Some questions on Emerging market funds ?
    SIGIX (SFGIX) was a disappointment to me. Not a disaster, but I did get out of it. After Foster left Matthews, I went over to his new fund. He is a good communicator, but eventually, I tired of him admitting to mis-timed decisions or just bad investments in particular stocks. But the fund had quite a good 2020.
    FSEAX had a partial change in management of the fund at the end of 2019 or maybe just into January, 2020. The fund really took off! I think under the current Covid regime, it looks like a "gooder" to me: governments everywhere are doing anything and everything to "juice" their economies. As long as the advanced, industrialized countries continue this way, the EM markets will follow nicely along on the coattails. Just my 2 cents. :)
  • "Inflation is hiding in plain sight"
    1.99% car loan, just a year ago. But lately, bonds have been misbehaving. We make sure not to pay interest on anything except the car loan. 4 years to go with that. Paying interest is like paying a tax you aren't required to pay. Unless unavoidable, like on big-ticket items, like a car. Strategy: I could have plunked-down the full price in cash, and pay no interest on the car. But I'd then never be able to grow the portfolio back to where it was, beforehand. That would mean reduced monthly dividends and yearly cap gains forever, thus permanently hobbling ourselves. Meanwhile, the portfolio is growing well beyond 1.99%.