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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • How much dry powder to hold in reserve ?
    I haven’t read everything above but I say cash is form of bonds. When I started investing in 1982 cash reserve funds were the high flyers. Of course conditions then were much different than they are now but still, cash reserves are ultra short bonds. Johnathan Clements discussed his thoughts on cash in a recent article in his Humble Dollar blog
    At this point, half my bonds are termed “cash”. Another 25% are in a Stable value fund - neither true bonds or cash. Maybe I should advocate that we call all these bond like instruments “fixed income”.
    I did and what I have done since I started investing and now at retirement. I'm fully invested at 99+%, only several thousands in cash at the bank. All my brokerage accounts have zero or close to zero in MM. I only go to cash since 2010-11 when I started planning my retirement, when I see very high risk, that happened about 2%. Since 2010-11 I started to change my asset allocation gradually from a very high % in stocks funds to mainly bond fund today.
  • NBC Universal Hires Nielsen Executive to Expand Its Measurement Work
    “Comcast Corp.’s NBCUniversal has hired an executive from measurement giant Nielsen to help steer its effort to better show marketers the effectiveness of buying TV and digital ads across its properties. The company named Kelly Abcarian, who had been general manager of Nielsen’s Advanced Video Advertising Group, to be executive vice president of measurement and impact , a newly created role. She will report to Krishan Bhatia, president and chief business officer of advertising and partnerships at NBCUniversal.”
    image
    From The Wall Street Journal April 22, 2021 - (Under “Business & Finance”)
  • 200,000+ daily Covid infection rate continues in India. Investment implications?
    You can argue that all the bad news is factored into India and Brazil BUT each is only down by 5 to 6% YTD and compared to loss 50% March 2020. If their covid rates are skyrocketing, the impact on local economy is hard to predict. Agree DCA would be wise, but if you wait till "all clear " it will be late. I would not use money you need for anything in the next 3 years.
    There is an increasing consensus that the Chinese vaccine is almost worthless with efficacy of just 50% apparently just beating WHO requirements ( why does that not surprise me?) JNJ vaccine will be much better bet for EM despite very rare Cerebral vein thrombosis issues. But it will take months to roll out
  • 200,000+ daily Covid infection rate continues in India. Investment implications?
    1. It is likely that COVID-19 pandemic will be brought into control with vaccination along with other mitigation practices, but it will take time and resources. Federal reserves across the globe have pledged to support this effort. As long term investors it would prudent to DCA into international funds over several months instead one lump sum, since this pandemic may take a year or longer before it stabilizes.
    2. Right now countries such as New Zealand, South Korea, and Taiwan who have gotten their COVID infection under control early and are doing well economically. US is playing catch-up with rapid deployment of vaccines (FEMA) and lots of resources. Delivering 200 million vaccines within 100 days is remarkable. However, there is a sizable population who do not want the vaccines and this will prevent US to reach the herd immunity this year. It is the rapid mutation of the coronavirus that is most concerning. The worst scenario would be the new variants would greatly reduce the efficacy of COVID vaccines, and render them much less effective. So far these variants are found to be more contagious but not necessary more lethal.
    3. The FANNG stocks along with those that enable remote working have advanced more than the rest of the S&P 500. The market have broadened out the economically sensitive value stocks in fall 2020. Recent interview with Leann Sonder (Schwab) posted by @Derf also discussed the recent change of stock leadership and the direction moving toward “quality” stocks.
  • SEC, FBI, Prosecutors Investigate “Mysterious Demise of $1.7 Billion Mutual Fund” - WSJ
    “A U.S. mutual fund that suffered nearly $500 million of losses appears to have misvalued its large derivatives portfolio, according to an analysis of the fund’s disclosures by The Wall Street Journal, academics and traders.
    The Infinity Q Diversified Alpha Fund disclosed in filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission valuations of investments that in at least three instances were incorrect or inconsistent with market conditions, said traders and academics. One valuation was mathematically impossible, said a former Morgan Stanley managing director who reviewed the disclosures. In one instance, the disclosures show, Infinity entered two nearly identical swaps contracts referencing the same index over the same period, yet booked a gain on one that was more than three times as large as the other—an outcome analysts said defied logic.
    The SEC informed Infinity of evidence that the firm’s chief investment officer, James Velissaris, was adjusting parameters of third-party pricing models used to value its derivatives, leaving Infinity unable to accurately value its holdings, the firm has said. ... The Federal Bureau of Investigation and prosecutors at the Manhattan U.S. attorney’s office are also investigating, the people familiar with the matter said ...
    The mutual fund, which launched in 2014 and is a part of Infinity Q Capital Management LLC, sought to generate returns that weren’t as tied to the returns of other assets like stocks and bonds, its disclosures showed ... It appeared to pay off, particularly during the brunt of last year’s selloff. In March 2020, the mutual fund posted a return of about 7%, while the S&P 500 fell 12.4%, its worst month since 2008. That month, the fund drew its highest inflows ever, according to Morningstar Direct data.”

    Excerpted / (Edited for Brevity) from The Wall Street Journal, April 21, 2021
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  • How much dry powder to hold in reserve ?
    I haven’t read everything above but I say cash is form of bonds. When I started investing in 1982 cash reserve funds were the high flyers. Of course conditions then were much different than they are now but still, cash reserves are ultra short bonds. Johnathan Clements discussed his thoughts on cash in a recent article in his Humble Dollar blog
    At this point, half my bonds are termed “cash”. Another 25% are in a Stable value fund - neither true bonds or cash. Maybe I should advocate that we call all these bond like instruments “fixed income”.
  • Counter Cyclical Indexing
    Interview with Jeffery Gundlach:
    Nov 2020

    The Value of Investing Mistakes
    Time Horizon
    Concentrated Bets
    Risk Management
    Beta Trades are rare and requires raising funds for such situations
    His outlook for the next 18 months ahead from Nov 2020:
    -US Stocks are in the late stage of the momentum trade
    -PRPFX looks like a good option right now... since Nov 2020 its up 14%
  • DoubleLine Yield Opportunities Fund
    I agree with Sven that posts would be more helpful if they included some comment about why the poster found an article or fund interesting.
    carew388 identifies one of the first two questions I ask specifically about CEFs. The other is the amount of leverage, since CEFs are often highly leveraged. This information is easy to find ...
    Leverage is 20% (CEF Connect), and DLY started its short life with a nearly 10% premium before plunging in fall 2020 to a 10.5% discount (per M*) and then settling in to a "not substantial[]" discount still greater than any of the dozen other leveraged multisector funds in the CEF Connect database.
    Regarding Crash's concern about the frequency and certainty of dividends: there is little special about CEFs in this regard. OEF bond funds may declare dividends annually (e.g. LSGLX), quarterly (e.g. BEGBX), monthly (e.g. VTABX), or even oddly (e.g. FBIIX in April, June, Oct, Dec).
    With OEFs you are left "waiting around to see IF a quarterly dividend were declared." BEGBX "generally expects to pay distributions of substantially all of its income, if any, quarterly, but may pay less frequently" (per prospectus). In reality, it has paid income dividends only three times in the past five years!
    According to CEF Connect, DLY pays monthly, and is a managed payout fund that has paid the identical amount in each of the 11 months of its short lifetime.
    Little of this raw data says why one might be interested in this fund.
  • A Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency thread & Experiment
    Bill Miller - Founder, Miller Value Funds
    “Some of the great investors of our time, Stanley Druckenmiller, Paul Tudor Jones, are gold bulls. Many people, if they're not gold bulls, they at least believe that it's possible inflation comes back with the Fed gunning the money supply here, and with more fiscal stimulus. I think it's reasonable to own gold.
    With respect to bitcoin...it's been a great month for bitcoin, but it's also been a great year, year to date, 3 years, 5 years, 10 years, and then inception, bitcoin's inception was 12 years ago, and it's been the single best performing asset category in every one of those periods. Not that it hasn't had a bad time, it went from nearly $20,000 down to the $3000-$4000 range, so it's been very volatile. But I think right now it's staying power gets better every day. I think the risks of bitcoin going to zero are much much lower than they've ever been before. And you're getting greater adoption. I mean, you know, MicroStrategy put half their cash, $400mm into bitcoin. Paypal announced that people can buy bitcoin. Square had blow out numbers yesterday due to their sales and demand for bitcoin. And the bitcoin story is very easy, which is that its supply demand it's it's economics, not 101, point 01, which is that bitcoin's supply is growing at about 2.5% per year, and the demand is growing faster than that. And there's gonna be a fixed number of them. So I think every major bank, every major investment bank, every major high net worth firm is gonna eventually have some exposure to bitcoin or what's like it.”
    6 Nov 2020
  • DoubleLine Yield Opportunities Fund
    DLY: A Discounted Fund For Monthly Income
    Apr. 18, 2021 6:41 AM ETDoubleLine Yield Opportunities Fund (DLY)
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4419616-dly-discounted-fund-monthly-income
    DLY
    Summary
    DLY launched at the beginning of 2020, just in time for the COVID-induced panic selling.
    Since that time, the fund has clawed back and headed higher.
    The fund pays an attractive monthly distribution and is traded at a discount, though is not substantially undervalued either.
    This article is also comparing extensively with DSL, another DoubleLine offering that frequently gets brought up together.
    Concept of business growth, profit, development and success. Hand planting seedling growing step in garden with sunshine
    Photo by Galeanu Mihai/iStock via Getty Images
    Written by Nick Ackerman, co-produced by Stanford Chemist
    Jeffrey Gundlach is one popular fixed-income guru - sometimes referred to as the "Bond King." He has several closed-end funds that are offered from his DoubleLine investment management firm. While he is much too busy doing CNBC interviews to do the day-to-day operations of the fund, his name is attached to them. Though I'd venture to say that he doesn't really have an active role in the fund. One of these funds is the DoubleLine Yield Opportunities Fund (DLY). It was launched earlier in 2020 and has put up respectable performance compared to a basket of other multisector bond FUND
    DLY investment objective is quite simple: "seek a high level of total return, with an emphasis on current income." To achieve this, the fund will "invest in a portfolio of investments selected for its potential to provide a high level of total return, with an emphasis on current income. The Fund may invest in debt securities or other income producing investments of issuers anywhere in the world, including in emerging markets, and may invest in investments of any credit quality."
  • DODBX vs RPGAX?
    Based on MFO Premium analysis:
    1. RPGAX rated higher than DODBX on lower risk over 1, 3, and 5 years period.
    2. RPGAX has lower maximum drawdown in March 2020, -15.7% versus -21.0%, than that of DODBX. The recovery period is 7 months versus 11 months in favor of RPGAX.
    3. The ulcer index and Martin ratio are higher in RPGAX than those of DODBX.
    If you already own a growth-oriented allocation fund such as PRWCX, pairing it with the DODBX would allow you to capture the recent shift to value stocks.
    Even DODBX's $15B asset is not small, the firm should able to manage it well. BTW, D&C only managed 6 funds.
    If I don't have any balance fund, RPGAX would be a solid choice.
  • What inflation? - U.S. Building Boom Sending Lumber and Steel Prices Through the Roof
    @Sven said, “Other investment opportunities??”
    Materials and energy are extremely volatile places to play. Very sensitive to the economy. As far as PRNEX goes, I’ve avoided it in recent years as just too erratic. It had a better manager many years ago than now I think. PRAFX is a cut above it and a bit less susceptible to the fortunes of the energy and equity markets. Folks shouldn’t overlook real estate in this area either. PRAFX typically allocates a substantial portion (30% or more) to real estate.
    Currently I have only 7-8% allocated to my “real assets” sleeve. Down from 10% at the end of 2020. The three I hold in that sleeve: PRAFX, BRCAX, OPGSX. Suggest the last one only for those who enjoy walking over mine-fields. :)
    (Earlier answer edited for brevity.)
  • What inflation? - U.S. Building Boom Sending Lumber and Steel Prices Through the Roof
    “Lumber prices are up more than 35% this year, at $1,180.70 per 1,000 board feet as of April 13, after more than doubling in price in 2020. Also this year, steel futures have jumped 40% and iron ore trades nearly 7% higher. Copper has climbed 15%”
    Barron’s April 15, 2021
    LINK Link may not work. One trick I’ve learned is to do a web search for the exact words (cut and pasted) from a quoted article.
    BTW - Columnist Jack Hough has a fascinating take on this in the same issue of Barron’s, asking “How about a wood-based cryptocurrency?” Suggested name ... Barkcoin
    :)
  • Bond funds with the best 15-year returns
    What he says: “Last year was an aggressive year for fixed-income performance with global central banks slashing rates as a result of COVID-19, and at the same time re-engaging in secondary market bond purchasing ...
    True. But it went much further ...
    “The Fed originally said participants in the corporate bond-buying facility must have at least a BBB credit rating as of March 22. That's the lowest rung of investment grade. However, it later opened the program to ‘fallen angels,’ which are investment-grade companies that have recently been dropped into junk territory. ... Not all junk-rated companies can participate. Firms must be rated at least BB- at the date of the purchase.” Source
    Yup - If you start using Treasury’s printing press to scour up & guarantee some marginally investment grade BBB bonds along with some good ol’ junk-rated BB- you’re going to light a fire under the corporate bond market. That’s the reason corporates did so well. The Fed’s rate cutting plus frightened equity investors running into bonds didn’t hurt either.
  • For Bonds, Add Safety by Venturing Abroad
    Re: “Add Safety by Venturing Abroad”
    Title’s a bit misleading. Try and find a prospectus for any foreign or global bond fund that doesn’t mention the increased risks of owning foreign bonds.
    I’ve always allocated a small chunk to foreign bonds (5-10% of portfolio), mainly because I don’t trust the Fed and politicians to protect the buying power of the USD. Nice to have some foreign bonds just in case of a dollar rout. I’d hazard a guess that my foreign bond exposure over several decades has produced a somewhat better return than the domestic side has. But too many variables to pin down the advantage.
    One variable is that more often than not your foreign bond fund is (fully or partially) hedged back to the U.S. dollar to reduce the volatility introduced by exchange rates. Another variable is the credit quality of the bonds owned. And a third is duration. Fees can be very high as well on foreign bond funds. A big variable is ability of manager to get the valuation / macro picture right and shift funds from country to country. TRP, IMHO, hasn’t been particularly successful at that over the years.
    One fund I’ve owned before that doesn’t hedge back to the dollar is PRELX. But I haven’t been too impressed since it came out. Have been tempted to pick some up recently because it’s down a bit this year and probably due for some kind of rebound. However, a counter argument is that the EM bond market usually suffers when U.S. equity markets correct. So, it might be better to wait longer until the current U.S. stock euphoria wears thin.
    An alternative to foreign bonds would be to invest directly in foreign currencies. Gets rid of interest rate risk. PRPFX does this to some degree and therefore benefits on days when the dollar is weak. Personally, about 10% of my portfolio is in DODLX. To be clear - this is a global bond fund, and often holds around 50% in domestic bonds, along with the international. The fund also dabbles a bit (5-10%) in the EM bond sector - adding incremental return without going off the reservation. With any bond fund, you want low fees, as fees consume a larger share of potential gains with bond funds. D&C does a decent job limiting expenses on all their funds.
  • IQDAX- If it's opaque, just maybe there's a reason?
    @Baseball_Fan
    Since everything is liquidated & in cash now, it would seem distribution should be straight forward & your figures seem about right unfortunately.
    Also unfortunately, they are still recalculating NAV as of February 18 as well as all past NAVs for the past 2 years or more. So who knows what those numbers will be & when that distribution will occur.
    And then there is the matter of "reserves".
    This is their latest FAQ page dated April 8.
    It might end up being more like a 50% loss, at least initially. But they did mention that there might be a second distribution as well.
    Then there are the lawsuits- class action against the fund, Infinity Q Capital Management, and specific individuals responsible and also any potential lawsuit on behalf of the fund against Infinity Q Capital Management to recoup costs incurred through this whole process.
    @wxman123
    What SIPC Protects
    SIPC protection is limited. SIPC only protects the custody function of the broker dealer, which means that SIPC works to restore to customers their securities and cash that are in their accounts when the brokerage firm liquidation begins.
    SIPC does not protect against the decline in value of your securities. SIPC does not protect individuals who are sold worthless stocks and other securities. SIPC does not protect claims against a broker for bad investment advice, or for recommending inappropriate investments.
    It is important to recognize that SIPC protection is not the same as protection for your cash at a Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) insured banking institution because SIPC does not protect the value of any security.
    But there is at least one firm advertising to sue your broker if they recommended IQDAX.
  • Bond funds with the best 15-year returns
    https://www.financial-planning.com/list/bond-funds-with-the-best-15-year-returns
    Bond funds with the best 15-year returns
    By Andrew Shilling
    Managers behind fixed-income funds with the biggest long-term gains nearly double their peers. After a year marked by a global pandemic and near-zero rate environment, their shorter term returns were subsequently even more impressive.
    The 20 top-performing bond funds of the past 15 years, with at least $100 million in assets under management, had an average gain of more than 7%, Morningstar Direct data show. Over the past 12 months, the same funds notched an average return of almost 18%.
    When considering the bond-market landscape over the shorter timer, it may be hard to fathom the same success in the years to come, says Tom Bradley, managing director and head of capital markets at Miami-based fixed-income software vendor YieldX.
    “Last year was an aggressive year for fixed-income performance with global central banks slashing rates as a result of COVID-19, and at the same time re-engaging in secondary market bond purchasing — the perfect combination for high-yield performance,” Bradley says. “Now that markets have plateaued and interest rates globally look grounded (possibly trending higher in the U.S.), fixed income will become a more nuanced sector to invest in as opposed to the ‘rising tide lifts all ships’ mantra of the last few years.”
    Compared with broader markets, the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG), which has a 0.04% net expense ratio, recorded a 15-year gain of just 4.23%, data show. Over the past year, the fund had a gain of 0.32%.
    In stocks, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) have had 15-year returns of 10.20% and 10.28%, respectively. In the past 12 months, SPY and DIA had gains of 50.29% and 45.30%. The funds have net expense ratios of 0.09% and 0.16%.
    Morgan Stanley captures surge in retail investing thanks to timely E-Trade purchase
    Despite record growth in wealth management, an otherwise rosy earnings report was marred by $911 million loss related to Archegos Capital.
  • ABRTX/ABRVX
    @little5bee-
    Take everything on this MaxFunds site with a large grain of salt. Often they overstate the negative. However, for a worst case scenario , it’s an interesting place to look.
    ABRTX Overall MaxFunds Score: 50% - Poor
    Forecast: 1%
    Best Case: 38%
    Worst Case: -75%
    Lipper gives ABRTX its highest rating (5) for “capital preservation”. However, that’s a backward looking grade - not a projection. While the chart looks steady, the fund’s been open less than 10 years. Why anyone would pay a 2.25% ER for any fund is beyond me.
    I do use some funds that use derivatives heavily to hedge market risk or operate in the futures markets (ie ABRZX). With such funds, the integrity and demonstrated expertise of the manager become paramount. Without knowing much about this one, at a glance I’d agree with @Baseball_Fan that it looks dicey. Suggest you continue to investigate. :)
  • Artisan High Income Fund to close to most new investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/935015/000119312521118559/d36840d497.htm
    497 1 d36840d497.htm ARTISAN PARTNERS FUNDS, INC.
    Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    File Nos. 033-88316 and 811-08932
    ARTISAN PARTNERS FUNDS, INC.
    Artisan High Income Fund (the “Fund”)
    SUPPLEMENT DATED 16 APRIL 2021
    TO THE FUND’S PROSPECTUS
    CURRENT AS OF THE DATE HEREOF
    Effective after the close of business on 30 April 2021, the Fund is closed to most new investors. The Fund will accept new accounts from certain investors who satisfy new account eligibility requirements. Eligibility requirements are described in Artisan Partners Funds’ prospectus under the heading “Investing with Artisan Partners Funds—Who is Eligible to Invest in a Closed Fund?”
    Accordingly, effective 30 April 2021, the following changes will take effect:
    1. The following paragraph is added under the heading “Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares” on page 33 of Artisan Partners Funds’ prospectus:
    The Fund is closed to most new investors. See “Investing with Artisan Partners Funds—Who is Eligible to Invest in a Closed Fund?” in the Fund’s statutory prospectus for new account eligibility criteria.
    2. The following replaces the text under the heading “Who is Eligible to Invest in a Closed Fund?” on pages 101-102 of Artisan Partners Funds’ prospectus in its entirety:
    Artisan High Income Fund is closed to most new investors. From time to time, other Funds may also be closed to most new investors. The Funds do not permit investors to pool their investments in order to meet the eligibility requirements, except as otherwise noted below.
    If you have been a shareholder in a Fund continuously since it closed, you may make additional investments in that Fund and reinvest your dividends and capital gain distributions in that Fund, even though the Fund has closed, unless Artisan Partners considers such additional purchases to not be in the best interests of the Fund and its other shareholders. An employee benefit plan that is a Fund shareholder may continue to buy shares in the ordinary course of the plan’s operations, even for new plan participants.
    You may open a new account in a closed Fund only if that account meets the Fund’s other criteria (for example, minimum initial investment) and:
    ∎ you beneficially own shares of the closed Fund at the time of your application;
    ∎ you beneficially own shares in the Funds with combined balances of $250,000;
    ∎ you receive shares of the closed Fund as a gift from an existing shareholder of the Fund (additional investments generally are not permitted unless you are otherwise eligible to open an account under one of the other criteria listed);
    ∎ you are transferring or “rolling over” into a Fund IRA account from an employee benefit plan through which you held shares of the Fund (if your plan doesn’t qualify for rollovers you may still open a new account with all or part of the proceeds of a distribution from the plan);
    ∎ you are purchasing Fund shares through a sponsored fee-based program and shares of the Fund are made available to that program pursuant to an agreement with the Funds or Artisan Partners Distributors LLC and the Funds or Artisan Partners Distributors LLC has notified the sponsor of that program in writing that shares may be offered through such program and has not withdrawn that notification;
    ∎ you are an employee benefit plan and the Funds or Artisan Partners Distributors LLC has notified the plan in writing that the plan may invest in the Fund and has not withdrawn that notification;
    ∎ you are an employee benefit plan or other type of corporate, charitable or governmental account sponsored by or affiliated with an organization that also sponsors or is affiliated with (or is related to an organization that sponsors or is affiliated with) another employee benefit plan or corporate, charitable or governmental account that is a shareholder of the Fund at the time of application;
    ∎ you are a client, employee or associate of an institutional consultant or financial intermediary and the Funds or Artisan Partners Distributors LLC has notified that consultant or financial intermediary in writing that you may invest in the Fund and has not withdrawn that notification;
    ∎ you are a client of a financial advisor or a financial planner, or an affiliate of a financial advisor or financial planner, who has at least $2,500,000 of client assets invested with the Fund or at least $5,000,000 of client assets invested with the Funds or under Artisan Partners’ management at the time of your application;
    ∎ you are an institutional investor that is investing at least $5,000,000 in the Fund and the Fund or Artisan Partners Distributors LLC has notified you in writing that you may invest in the Fund and has not withdrawn that notification (available for investments in Artisan International Value Fund only);
    ∎ you are a client of Artisan Partners or are an investor in a product managed by Artisan Partners, or you have an existing business relationship with Artisan Partners, and in the judgment of Artisan Partners, your investment in a closed Fund would not adversely affect Artisan Partners’ ability to manage the Fund effectively; or
    ∎ you are a director or officer of the Funds, or a partner or employee of Artisan Partners or its affiliates, or a member of the immediate family of any of those persons.
    A Fund may ask you to verify that you meet one of the guidelines above prior to permitting you to open a new account in a closed Fund. A Fund may permit you to open a new account if the Fund reasonably believes that you are eligible. A Fund also may decline to permit you to open a new account if the Fund believes that doing so would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders, even if you would be eligible to open a new account under these guidelines.
    The Funds’ ability to impose the guidelines above with respect to accounts held by financial intermediaries may vary depending on the systems capabilities of those intermediaries, applicable contractual and legal restrictions and cooperation of those intermediaries.
    Call us at 800.344.1770 if you have questions about your ability to invest in a closed Fund.