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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund management change
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/902259/000174177321000031/c497.htm
    497 1 c497.htm
    T. Rowe Price Funds
    Supplement to the following Prospectuses, each as dated below (as supplemented):
    May 1, 2020
    T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Portfolio
    December 15, 2020
    T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund
    In section 1, the portfolio manager table under “Management” is supplemented as follows:
    Effective October 1, 2021, Larry J. Puglia will step down as a portfolio manager and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee. Paul D. Greene II will succeed Mr. Puglia to become portfolio manager of the fund and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee. Mr. Greene joined T. Rowe Price in 2006.
    In section 2, the disclosure under “Portfolio Management” is supplemented as follows:
    Effective October 1, 2021, Larry J. Puglia will step down as a portfolio manager and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee. Paul D. Greene II will succeed Mr. Puglia to become portfolio manager of the fund and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee.
    During the past five years, Mr. Greene has served as a portfolio manager for other
    T. Rowe Price Funds and has assisted the portfolio manager in managing the fund since January 1, 2020 as an associate portfolio manager. He joined the Firm in 2006 and his investment experience dates from that time.
    The date of this supplement is January 26, 2021.
    G24-041 1/26/21
  • Is Options Trading Fueling Stock Market Bubble?
    "Options trading hit a record in 2020, with some 7.47 billion contracts traded, according to the Options Clearing Corporation. That was 45 percent higher than the previous record, set in 2018."
    "Much of this money has come from small-time traders hoping to make fast gains by buying 'calls' — bets on rising markets — set to expire quickly."
    "The skew is evident in something called the put-call ratio, which shows how many contracts are betting on gains compared with those betting on losses through 'put' options. On Friday, the 50-day moving average of that ratio was 0.42, near the lowest level in two decades."
    Link
  • Fund recommendations for an 18 year old
    Not to worry, it was a great exercise for me to help insure that my personal take on both of these funds is correct. YMMV on that.
    FWIW, as a bit of history, I owned MGGPX though much of its outperformance years, sold it around the time of the 2020 crash, and switched to MIGPX a bit later in 2020. Little did I know at the time what it was about to do. My primary reason for buying into MIGPX in lieu of MGGPX was their respective AUM and manager compositions.
  • Fund recommendations for an 18 year old
    @stillers - If you back out what has happened with the performance in MIGPX since the March 2020 downtown MGGPX has bested it over all time periods.
    Well first, their TR performances are not all that different.
    I see your point and understand why one might argue it.
    But I disagree with the concept of creatively subtracting out any interim period or event in order to compare TR performances. The time periods and/or events happened and there's no going back on them. But wouldn't it be nice if we could?
    IF you subscribe to that concept, why not let's for instance then take out any/all periods that MGGPX outperformed MIGPX, or any market events that more negatively impacted MGGPX?
    IF you subscribe to that concept, note that MIGPX's TR YTD, past month and 3-months, interim time periods well after the March crash, are ALL DOUBLE that of MGGPX's. So the current allocations of MIGPX are still working doubly better than those of MGGPX.
    IF you subscribe to that concept, do you also plan to subtract out all future interim periods or events that more negatively impacted MGGPX?
    From another angle...Should an investor just ASSUME that eventually the effects of the March 2020 downturn will magically reverse at some point and MGGPX will get back to an outperformance period(s)? Feel free to do so, but my money is riding on MIGPX going forward.
    Either way, they are both IMO great WS funds and it's likely they'll both continue to outperform others in their cat in future periods.
    Not really looking for answers to those conceptual questions. Just noting that's my take on this concept that some investors like to sometimes apply to discussions about past performance. I trust it differs from yours and likely others, and I respect those opinions. But beyond what has been said about it so far, I'm not interested in a spitting contest over it so I likely won't comment further as I've got nothing more to add.
    Other than this...Another reason for my preference of MIGPX over MGGPX going forward is its use since inception in Dec 2010 of the incredibly experienced 6-member management team that is still in place over MGGPX's use of a single (albeit outstanding) PM.
    Edit to add: Mggpx is now closed to new investors now I believe however.
    Despite this press release on MGGIX...
    https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2020/09/04/morgan-stanley-to-close-global-opportunity-portfolio-to-new-investors-portfolio-products/
    ...it appears MGGIX/MGGPX, while showing CLOSED at VG, is still OPEN at Fido. To wit, I mocked up a Fido trade for MGGPX that was accepted. I cancelled the trade and am not sure if it would have executed. The article does state "...there will be a few exceptions" to the closing. Interested investors may want to inquire with MS or Fido about its availability. If it is CLOSED, that would make the decision between the two for new investors a simple one.
  • Fund recommendations for an 18 year old
    @stillers - If you back out what has happened with the performance in MIGPX since the March 2020 downtown MGGPX has bested it over all time periods. Careful how you read those long-term tables.
    Edit to add: Mggpx is now closed to new investors now I believe however.
  • EM ESG Options
    @msf makes good points and my take-away is that we as shareholders learn late in the game what a manager’s strategy might be (or was at a point in the past). Most MF prospecti give latitude to permit an active manager to shift back and forth between growth and value, or cash and fully invested, etc. It’s nice when a fund stays true to its advertised mandate, but I suspect purity suffers in the face of markets that refuse to follow some wonk’s thinking. Once I find a fund I like, I’m inclined to let management pick the stocks.
    There are stocks and countries in EM indices that do defy pigeon-holing. When I lived in Seoul in 1980-1 the excavations for the subway line revealed that underground sewer pipes were nothing more than 55-gallon drums welded together. Korea really was emerging then. Today a visitor would be struck by the modernity of the city whereas the former resident might be trying to mentally resurrect the missing odor of sewage gas that once assaulted the nostrils in the capital. One steps off the plane in New Delhi, OTOH, and one smells an acrid smoke, a combination of industrial pollutants and the open fires burning in the streets to warm people and to cook their meals. Maybe Korea should not be in EM funds, but Taiwan is pretty modern, also.
  • Small Caps
    SCG MSSMX UP 5.01% today.
    Just sayin'.

    And my thanks for bringing it to my attention the other day. I looked at it and bought immediately; which was, fortunately, BEFORE that surprising gain! I'm a believer in the SC rotation; so your mention was timely...

    That
    WAS a surprising move yesterday, but keep in mind that with its 30+ SD, these kinds of daily moves happen with this fund, well, pretty much daily. You don't get to a ~150% annual TR (2020) without 'em!
    I've been holding ARKW and ARKG; believe me, I'm familiar with wild swings! 8^b
  • Small Caps
    SCG MSSMX UP 5.01% today.
    Just sayin'.

    And my thanks for bringing it to my attention the other day. I looked at it and bought immediately; which was, fortunately, BEFORE that surprising gain! I'm a believer in the SC rotation; so your mention was timely...
    That WAS a surprising move yesterday, but keep in mind that with its 30+ SD, these kinds of daily moves happen with this fund, well, pretty much daily. You don't get to a ~150% annual TR (2020) without 'em!
  • Stock and Bond Return Forecasts
    The economy will get back on solid ground when this pandemic is overcome by the vaccine. The rollout and getting them to the people has proven to be challenging, but it can be done. It was completely naive to say that everybody can get vaccinated by November 2020, or more like being a liar. It is about time to have the National Defense Authorization Act put forth. The sooner this pandemic is brought under control the quicker we all will return to our normal lives.
    The broadening of the market to other sectors in late 2020 indicated that US economy will return with the vaccine. China, New Zealand and Australia are already leading their recovery, so will US.
  • Small Caps
    Looking at MSSMX Eye watering YTD + 136.75% 1 year + 127.18% it holds overstock.com ++607.77% 1 year.. .too late ? The Wasatch small caps look greta also - alas... closed . It looks like best open option is ARTSX
    Yeah, you could have said something similar to that on 12/31/20:
    "WOW! MSSMX is UP 150% in 2020. I can't buy that now. I'm too late."
    Or, you could have bought it on 12/31/20 and be UP 16.5% YTD heading into today. Or have bought ARTSX on 12/31/20 and be UP 5.4% YTD.
    ARTSX is a great SCG fund and made my above-posted original scoping list. But MSSMX was my SCG choice because it has consistently outperformed virtually every other SCG fund over all time periods. And I see no reason to expect anything different than that going forward.
    Granted, MSSMX's SD is notably higher than most other SCG funds. BUT...as one legendary forum poster always used to say, "Volatility is the price you pay for growth."
    YMMV, and I think it does. I think you posted elsewhere that you are risk adverse and I replied that feast/famine EMs are therefore NOT the place for you to be. I would echo that same comment on SCG. SCV and FCPVX might be a better option for you in SCs.
    EDIT: WMICX is OPEN/NTF at Fido.
  • EM ESG Options
    A good background article, despite its date in 2018, can be found in this link to a NY Times article:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/13/business/finding-emerging-markets-stocks-with-social-consciences.html
    The Times article reviews many ESG strategies, including MFs, so I won’t repeat what is said there.
    Inspired by a recent M* finding that ESG MFs and ETFs have been outperforming the indices against which they are measured, I took a closer look at a recommended ETF for broad EM coverage, namely IEMG, as well as two ETFs that have portfolios based on ESG principles. Nuveen (now owned by TIAA, which has offered a Social Choice balanced fund for many years) offers NUEM, an EM ESG fund using its proprietary index. Two other choices in this area are XTrackers EMSG and a 2020 addition to the mix, iShares LDEM. Both of the latter funds eliminate some companies based on the business (tobacco, alcohol, gambling, etc.) and then they apply ESG screens to the remaining MSCI EM stocks to eliminate bad governance, pollution, corruption, and so forth.
    NUEM and EMSG have long enough track records to make comparisons possible. Since the lows of world markets in March, 2020, all EM funds have shot up. However, as predicted by the theorists and researchers, companies with higher ESG scores, including in this case EM companies, did outperform an index of unscreened firms. I lean towards NUEM because I know TIAA’s record in ESG investing. They may have a “secret sauce,” and were I looking to expand my EM allocation, this is where the money would go. If the theory is correct, long-term results should achieve similar outperformance.
  • Degree of Attribution of the "Robinhood" Investor to Market Advances (and Future Corrections)
    Here's some insight on the topic, albeit a bit dated from 08/2020.
    https://www.investors.com/news/robinhood-investors-charging-into-stock-investing-what-could-go-wrong/
    And some 2020 stats that another more learned poster may add some color to:
    https://www.businessofapps.com/data/robinhood-statistics/
    Excerpt;
    Robinhood Total Transactions
    2015 $500 million
    2017 $50 billion
    2018 $100 billion
    2019 $150 billion
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread
    It makes sense to be cautious when high equity valuations are considered.
    I rebalanced my portfolio in late 2020 / early 2021 to lessen risk.
    The current conditions don't necessarily preclude the "U.S. Market" from performing well this year.
    The state of the pandemic will be a major factor.
    I guess we'll have to see how it goes...
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread
    Agee. Trimmed some positions with large gain. Time to let cash to build up. Pandemic is far from over.
    Few opportunities I like beside cash. The value stocks have been overlooked and the valuation is reasonable. The market started to broaden out by end of 2020. YACKX holds high quality stocks while QRSVX holds smaller cap stocks (plus a large cash position).
    David has a detail review on HGGIX and the holdings are uniquely different from most global funds, a good approach to diversify both domestic and oversea stocks.
  • Firstrade Brokerage- A mutual fund buyers/sellers heaven -My Experience
    I'll first reiterate that if there's a specific fund that you want, there's a good chance that Firstrade has it with no brokerage-charged commission and that it may have a lower min than one would find elsewhere.
    That said, there are a lot of other statements that seem to be misunderstandings or misleading; or I don't understand.
    Every MF on the platform is NTF.
    If NTF means "no commission", that's true. But if it means no fee including no load, that doesn't appear to be the case. (Note that load funds are generally commission-free everywhere even though you may still have to pay the load.)
    Consider Praxis Genesis Growth Fund. It has only one share class, MGAFX. When I log in to Firstrade, go to the customer fund screener, check Fund Family (Praxis), and check Load Type (Load), this fund along with a few others shows up. (It does not show up if I select no load instead of load to screen.)
    FWIW, it appears to be NTF (really NTF, i.e. load-waived) at TD Ameritrade.
    Firstrade does sell this fund: I go to my mutual fund trading page (from the "Trading" drop down, select "Mutual Funds") and enter MGAFX. It says that at Firstrade the fund has a $1K min and three day settlement. Since I closed my account years ago I can't actually test a trade.
    The site is quirky in that the M* info page shows the normal 50,000 minimum [for VWIAX] but on the buy ticket the minimums change to $500
    Same as for me, so that's evidence that I'm looking at the same page when looking up VWIAX or MGAFX. Note that if one enters VWELX or VWENX one sees that Wellington is not open to new investors at Firstrade. But if you could open VWENX at Firstrade, you'd only need $500.
    Old joke: Customer - the guy down the street is selling the same thing at half the price
    Shopkeeper - why don't you go down the street and buy it there?
    Customer - he doesn't have any left
    after becoming a customer and opening an account (no minimum) that number became 11,090 no load NTF funds when you are signed into the site and click on the no load fund list and they are all listed as such.
    Yet the customer screener shows "just" 9,903 no load share classes. In addition, it shows 6,316 load share classes. To borrow from Graeme Edge of the Moody Blues: which is right and which is an illusion?. Buffalo Springfield also comes to mind.
    I re-balance twice yearly. Also I prefer to reapportion monthly dividends/gains to positions of my own choice based on the economy, my current financial and tax situation or cash needs. Typically I would do about 40 buys/sells a year. At Fidelity about $800-1000/yr
    At Fidelity, I can add to a TF position for $5 and sell for $0. 20 buys and 20 sells would run me $100 bucks.
    I'm glad you mentioned tax situation. Fidelity has had online cost basis services - specific lot identification and changing default disposal method - down pat for decades. These days, most other brokerages make it easy as well. All I've found so far at Firstrade is: "Please contact your broker if you wish to change the default tax-relief method for your account or specify different tax lots for liquidation".
    https://www.firstrade.com/content/en-us/accounts/taxcenter/?h=costbasis
    Though few in number, Firstrade does have some nickel and dime fees. It charges $15 (or $50) for check printing. It doesn't appear to provide ATM rebates and charges 3% for foreign transactions after the first one each month. (BTW, Fidelity's debit card is provided by PNC bank, not UMB.)
    Lewis asked about security against hacking. A question worth thinking about considering that I was able to log in years after closing my account by just looking up my old login/passwd/pin in my home files. The system didn't suggest that I might want to change my password (no password aging).
    It doesn't seem to offer two factor authentication, though it claims that a PIN constitutes "an additional factor". It does not.
    there are three generally recognized factors for authentication: something you know (such as a password), something you have (such as a hardware token or cell phone), and something you are (such as your fingerprint). Two-factor means the system is using two of these options."
    https://www.pcmag.com/how-to/two-factor-authentication-who-has-it-and-how-to-set-it-up
    As near as I can tell, Firstrade doesn't provide secure email.
    https://www.firstrade.com/content/en-us/customerservice/contactus
    (The internal contact page has a different URL but the same info.)
    Firstrade does meet legal requirements on security but doesn't seem to go beyond that.
    We maintain physical, electronic, and procedural safeguards that comply with federal standards to guard your personal information. We protect your account information by placing it on the secure portion of our website and use industrial strength firewalls and encryption technology to protect personal information on our computer systems.
    https://www.firstrade.com/content/en-us/customerservice/onlinesecurity/onlineprotectionguarantee
    Note that SIPC insurance (or excess insurance) only kicks in when a brokerage is in financial trouble or filing bankruptcy. It doesn't cover run of the mill hacking or identity theft.
    Firstrade, as with other brokerages (e.g. Fidelity), guarantees to cover your direct losses. This guarantee "does not include any tax consequences, legal fees and expenses, or any consequential, lost opportunity, special, indirect, incidental, punitive, exemplary or non-monetary damages."
  • Small Caps
    My PRDSX (domestic small-caps, but closed to new investors) did indeed have a great year in 2020, but compared to its category, it stunk. (+23.84%.) That ought to serve as yet another indicator. It just very well might be a fine time to pile into small-caps.
  • MFO Ratings Updated Through December 2020 - Year-End Data ... Yay!
    Yes indeed. GE, BA, XOM, OXY, WFC have enjoyed nice gains since November ... and, back to positive again today.
  • Small Caps
    IJR tracks the S&P 600 index. VTMSX is an actively managed fund which tracks the same index while attempting to minimize taxable gains.
    VSMAX tracks the CRSP U.S. Small Cap Index.
    It has more holdings and a higher median market cap than S&P 600 index funds.
    FSMAX tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index and VEXAX tracks the S&P Completion Index. Both of these extended market funds are designed to complement an S&P 500 index fund.
    These mid-cap funds have more holdings and higher median market caps compared to VSMAX.
    I would avoid funds which track the Russell 2000 index due to this index's inferior design.