Selling or buying the dip ?! BTD sounds good in theory, but then so does "buy low, sell high". Easier said than done.
1. Where does the cash come from?
2. When does one pull the trigger, i.e. how much does the dip need to be to buy?
The examples below are not intended to "prove" that BTD doesn't work. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't. Obviously if one waits for too large a dip before buying, one is stuck holding cash forever. And if one pulls the trigger on small dips, one risks losing a little bit on most buys - there are frequent small dips that don't bring the market back down to below where you started.
So I'm curious about how people choose their thresholds and where they get their cash.
Here are some sample scenarios starting on Oct 1, 2020 (roughly a year ago), comparing BTD with "buy when cash is available". I use VFIAX as the investment vehicle and market proxy. Red font indicates longer delays (more than a month) before investing on a dip.
For Q1 (where does the cash come from), I have worked through two hypotheticals:
a) One starts with $1200 on Oct 1
b) One has a spare $100 (perhaps from income) at the beginning of each month ($1200 total)
For Q2 (when to buy the dip), I've worked through 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7% triggers. There were no dips of 8% or more over the past year.
Lump sum investing: 33.6844% gain on $1200 = $404.21 gain (returns from M*)
Lump sum, invest on dip (on day fund drops specified percentage):
1% dip (Oct 12-Oct 14): 29.4760% gain on $1200 = $353.71 gain
2%, 3% dips (Oct 12 - Oct 19): 31.8043% gain on $1200 = $381.65 gain
4% dip (Oct 12 - Oct 27): 33.1892% gain on $1200 = $398.27 gain
5%, 6%, 7% dips (Oct 12 - Oct 28): 38.0612% on $1200 = $456.73 gain; these are winners
To come out ahead in this time frame with a lump sum and waiting for a dip, one must wait for a 5% - 7% dip. Any faster trigger and one gains less. Any slower trigger, i.e. waiting for an 8%+ dip that never comes, and one is left holding cash and losing out on a $400 gain.
Monthly $100 investing (not waiting for dip):
Oct 1: 33.68% x $100 = $33.68 gain
Nov 2: 36.40% x $100 = $36.40 gain
Dec 1: 23.07% x $100 = $23.07 gain
Jan 4: 21.64% x $100 = $21.64 gain
Feb 1: 19.13% x $100 = $19.13 gain
Mar 1: 15.08% x $100 = $15.08 gain
Apr 1: 11.56% x $100 = $11.56 gain
May 3: 6.87% x $100 = $6.87 gain
June 1: 6.47% x $100 = $6.47 gain
July 1: 3.45% x $100 = $3.45 gain
Aug. 2: 1.78% x $100 = $1.78 gain
Sept. 1: -1.44% x $100 = -$1.44 (loss)
Total gain: $177.69
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Monthly $100 investing, waiting for a 1% dip:
Oct 1, dip Oct 12-14, 29.48% x $100 = $29.48 gain
Nov 2, dip Nov 16-18, 26.40% x $100 = $26.40 gain
Dec 1, dip Dec 8 -11, 22.97% x $100 = $22.97 gain
Jan 4, dip Jan 8 - 15, 19.38% x $100 = $19.38 gain
Feb 1, dip Feb 12-22, 15.87% x $100 = $15.87 gain
Mar 1, dip March 1 - 3, 17.37% x $100 = $17.37 gain
Apr 1, dip April 16 - 20, 8.39% x $100 = $8.39 gain
May 3, dip May 7 - 10, 6.94% x $100 = $6.94 gain
June 1, dip Jun 14 - 18, 7.30% x $100 = $7.30 gain
July 1, dip July 12 - 16, 3.23% x $100 = $3.23 gain
Aug 2, dip Aug 16 - 18, 1.39% x $100 = $1.39 gain
Sept 1, dip Sep 2 - 10, -0.29% x $100 = - $0.29 (loss)
Total gain: $158.43
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Monthly $100 investing, waiting for a 2% dip:
Oct 1, dip Oct 12-19, 31.80% x $100 = $31.80 gain
Nov 2, dip Jan 25 - 27, 19.92% x $100 = $19.92 gain
Dec 1, dip Jan 25 - 27, 19.92% x $100 = $19.92 gain
Jan 4, dip Jan 25 - 27, 19.92% x $100 = $19.92 gain
Feb 1, dip Feb 12-25, 17.27% x $100 = $17.27 gain
Mar 1, dip March 1 - 3, 17.37% x $100 = $17.37 gain
Apr 1, dip May 7 - 12, 10.23% x $100 = $10.23 gain
May 1, dip May 7 - 12, 10.23% x $100 = $10.23 gain
June 1, dip Jun 14 - 18, 7.30% x $100 = $7.30 gain
July 1, dip July 12 - 19, 4.89% x $100 = $4.89 gain
Aug 2, dip Sept 2 - 14, 0.30% x $100 = $0.30 gain
Sept 1, dip Sept 2 - 14, 0.30% x $100 = $0.30 gain
Total gain: $159.45
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Monthly $100 investing, waiting for a 3% dip:
Oct 1, dip Oct 12-19, 31.80% x $100 = $31.80 gain
Nov 2, dip Jan 25 - 29, 21.08% x $100 = $21.08 gain
Dec 1, dip Jan 25 - 29, 21.08% x $100 = $21.08 gain
Jan 4, dip Jan 25 - 29, 21.08% x $100 = $21.08 gain
Feb 1, dip Feb 12-26, 17.82% x $100 = $17.82 gain
Mar 1, dip March 1 - 4, 19.12% x $100 = $19.12 gain
Apr 1, dip May 7 - 12, 10.23% x $100 = $10.23 gain
May 1, dip May 7 - 12, 10.23% x $100 = $10.23 gain
June 1, dip Sept 2 - 20, 2.25% x $100 = $2.25 gain
July 1, dip Sept 2 - 20, 2.25% x $100 = $2.25 gain
Aug 2, dip Sept 2 - 20, 2.25% x $100 = $2.25 gain
Sept 1, dip Sept 2 - 20, 2.25% x $100 = $2.25 gain
Total gain: $161.44
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Monthly $100 investing, waiting for a 4% dip:
Oct 1, dip Oct 12-27, 33.19% x $100 = $33.19 gain
There are no 4% or greater dips after October, so $1100 remains uninvested
Total gain: $33.19
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Monthly $100 investing, waiting for 5%, 6%, 7% dip:
Oct 1, dip Oct 12-28, 38.06% x $100 = $38.06 gain
There are no 4% or greater dips after October, so $1100 remains uninvested
Total gain: $38.06
Selling or buying the dip ?! @stillersI would add that there are way less outstanding shares/co's to purchase over the past 10-12 years..due to private co's having easier access to
capital no need to go public, sure buybacks, different less
capital intensive co's such as software based need less
capital so no rush to go to market, etc.
So would it be wrong to say that this is an "inflationary scenario" causing the market to continusouly rise due to supply/demand....more money chasing less product....
"Transitionary"...who knows??
Baseball Fan
Selling or buying the dip ?! "There must be some phenomenon market pundits have not been able to explain that is causing an overriding sentiment to keep the market in an upward trajectory and they are describing the symptom (BTD) as the cause."
No need to look for a phenomenon.
The list is pretty endless, and somewhat obvious.
Thinking out loud in no particular order...
1. Liquidity - a FED juiced market
2. Most bonds ain't worth the risk
3. Endless supply of new money - trillions of dollars on the sidelines
4. Inflation - while others worried/worry about it, we reallocated higher %'s to stocks starting late
2020 (We weren't/aren't alone in that strategy
5. Duh, the US stock markets have historically been/are still the best investments on the planet
6. Oh those millenials
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/hard-bearish-stock-market-risk-121500864.html7. Add any of a number of other reasons
Alternatively...
https://fifthperson.com/why-the-stock-market-keeps-rising/
4 ETFs for a 7% Yield Portfolio Really like HNDL, the others meh except for HIPS which is a train wreck.
Man, what does this tell you? :
HNDL, which is a fund-of-funds, has a target distribution strategy that you often find in the closed-end fund universe.
... On the downside, the fund's distribution is dependent upon the performance of the fund. If the share price goes down, your dividend also goes down.
... The fixed distribution strategy is the unique feature and must be watched closely because it has the potential to be good or bad. Because it aims to distribute an annualized rate of 7% of assets, HNDL needs to generate that type of total return in order for it to "stay above water".
The fund will, of course, distribute any income that is generated, but any shortfall from the 7% target needs to be made up by the fund's net assets. That could include capital gains generated by the fund or what's considered a "return of capital", which is essentially returning the investor's initial investment. ...
CrossingBridge Pre-Merger SPAC ETF The ETF launched on Tuesday under SOC.
"SPC is a renter, not an owner," said CrossingBridge's Founder and Portfolio Manager, David Sherman. "In other words, we aim to capture the fixed income nature of pre-merger SPACs purchased at a discount-to-collateral value with a potential equity pop from shareholders reacting favorably to an announced deal. But we are not interested in being an equity investor post-business combination – that is a whole different ballgame."
According to CrossingBridge, SPACs offer very similar characteristics to fixed income securities, which include:
· SPACs have a liquidation date which is equivalent to a bond's maturity date.
· SPAC common stock shareholders have a full-redemption right upon a business combination, similar to a change-of-control put provision found in corporate debt indentures.
· SPACs are fully collateralized by U.S. government securities for the benefit of SPAC common stock shareholders to be released upon a redemption or liquidation. Hence, when an investor purchases SPAC common stock below its pro rata trust account value and holds the security to redemption or liquidation date, the investor will receive a positive yield, similar to a fixed income security's yield to maturity.
· SPACs may have equity upside by participating in an attractive business combination. This upside is similar to a convertible bond with the added feature that SPAC investors may redeem their common shares for their collateral value rather than continue ownership post-transaction.
SPACs are not a new asset class for Sherman; he made his first SPAC investment over 15 years ago. Given the increased popularity and capital flowing into SPACs, Sherman has significantly increased the firm's exposure to SPACs during the past few years. CrossingBridge believes the market is now large and liquid enough to effectively manage SPAC-dedicated strategies.
"Our guiding principle has been, and will continue to be, that return of capital is more important than return on capital," emphasized Sherman