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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Is it time for a correction ?
    Not as bad as the afternoon in ‘87 when the Dow fell 27% during the short time I was driving home from work. Or as bad as the day in ‘08 when I happened upon an old HS buddy literally in tears because half his IRA had been wiped out in a few months by an investment in junk bonds he’d considered relatively safe.
    Shucks, this kind of noise is normal and healthy for markets. Never invest $$ you will need anytime soon. Nobody’s to blame - unless you mean the charlatans who promise quick gains and would have you believe getting rich investing is so easy “even a cave man could do it.”
    If you’ve been around the past half century or more, when it comes to investing, you’ve seen a thing or two.
  • Is it time for a correction ?
    Sooner or later ! Below taken from FMI large cap semi-annual report 3/31/2021
    Most stocks did reasonably well in the quarter; deeper-value names (many of suspect quality) and cyclical enterprises were standouts. Firms with a high probability of default,money-losing companies, and other highly-speculative stocks also continued to perform well.Recall that 2020 was a banner year for the most speculative stocks. Companies with over $1 billion market value as of year-end 2020, who also lost money in 2019 (409 money-losing companies),gained on average 123% last year. When the other side of this stock market cycle has been completed, we believe most of these stocks will better reflect fundamental reality
  • A Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency thread & Experiment
    Made my first forray into anything crypto-related, buying a bunch of BFARF at $5 at the opem before it closed up nicely. Just got approved to list on the NASDAQ the other day, so I expect it will pop given retail interest and make for some nice cap gains once the ticker changes. This is a total spec play on my part -- the company is a Canadian-based crypto miner that looks pretty decent vs its peers, so ... we'll see what happens.
    I don't own any cryptocurrency and think the proliferation of 'exchanges' is too crowded a field to figure out who's got an edge. But this 'mining' company at least I understand a bit and feel it's useful on the 'back end' of the crypto mania -- eg, crypto infrastructure -- and seems one of the better ones at that.
  • Buying this week's market dip?
    Hi @JD_co. I think there is plenty of room. I bought DBC a couple months ago so I'm up since that buy, but it's been trending up for about a year with the steepest up tick starting in Nov 2020. I believe it will be an up trend for a couple years to come. All commodities have been in a drought for a decade or more with low inflation, dropping interest rates and a strong $. Times they are a-changing. Just my 2-cents.
  • Selective Opportunity Fund to liquidate
    Update:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1199046/000139834421010241/fp0065409_497.htm
    497 1 fp0065409_497.htm
    SELECTIVE OPPORTUNITY FUND
    Supplement to the Prospectus
    and
    Statement of Additional Information
    dated April 29, 2020
    Supplement dated May 11, 2021
    In Supplements dated February 26, 2021 and March 24, 2021, we notified you that the Board of Trustees has determined that it is in the best interest of shareholders to liquidate the Selective Opportunity Fund (the “Fund”), that as of February 26, 2021, the Fund is no longer accepting purchase orders for its shares, and that the Fund will close effective June 21, 2021 (the “Closing Date”). We are now notifying you that the Closing Date has been changed to May 21, 2021.
    Shareholders may redeem Fund shares at any time prior to the Closing Date. Procedures for redeeming your account, including reinvested distributions, are contained in the section “How to Redeem Shares” of the Fund’s Prospectus. Any shareholders that have not redeemed their shares of the Fund prior to the Closing Date will have their shares automatically redeemed as of that date, with proceeds being sent to the address of record. If your Fund shares were purchased through a broker-dealer and are held in a brokerage account, redemption proceeds may be forwarded by the Fund directly to the broker-dealer for deposit into your brokerage account.
    In the Supplement dated February 26, 2021 we notified you that the Fund will continue to pursue its investment objective through the Closing Date. In the Supplement dated March 24, 2021 we notified you that effective immediately, the Fund will no longer pursue its investment objective and may begin to liquidate the holdings in its portfolio. As of the date of this Supplement, all portfolio holdings have been liquidated and the proceeds of the liquidated holdings are invested in money market instruments or are held in cash.
    Any capital gains have been distributed to shareholders and reinvested in additional Fund shares, unless you requested payment in cash.
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
    If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax adviser regarding the consequences of a redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account (IRA) or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another IRA within 60 days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you are the trustee of a qualified retirement plan or the custodian of a 403(b)(7) custodian account (tax-sheltered account) or a Keogh account, you may reinvest the proceeds in any way permitted by its governing instrument.
    * * * * * *
    This Supplement and the Prospectus provide the information a prospective investor should know about the Fund and should be retained for future reference. A Statement of Additional Information dated April 29, 2020 has been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and is incorporated herein by reference. You may obtain the Prospectus or Statement of Additional Information without charge by calling the Fund at (434) 515-1517 or visiting www.selectivewealthmanagement.com.
  • Bivrx. Invenomic fund
    I bought into BIVRX in early-mid 2020. Fund has done really well! Fund is up 57% according to this link (long-short equity) category.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/screener-rank
    Initial investment is $5K for investor class, but must maintain minimum balance of $1K afterwards in a taxable account (prospectus link below).
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1518042/000158064221000788/invenomic485b.htm.
    Check out the prior assessments by David:
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2019/05/balter-invenomic-bivrx-bivix-bivsx/
    which changed to Invenomic:
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2019/10/invenomic-fund-bivrx-bivix-bivsx/
    From one of the assessments:
    The manager is Ali Motamed. Before launching Invenomic Capital, Mr. Motamed was a Senior Analyst and a Portfolio Manager with Robeco Investment Management (2003-15) where he co-managed Boston Partners Long/Short Equity Fund (BPLEX) and a related strategy. He was awarded Portfolio Manager of the Year in the Alternatives Category by Morningstar in 2014.
    Found this link from Ted back in September 2019:
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/mining-the-short-side-51224.html?print
  • DODBX vs RPGAX?
    Was anyone aware at the time that DODBX has been shorting the S&P 500? Just uncovered that tidbit last evening in reading their December 31, 2020 report. Helps explain why the fund’s been stomping a lot of otherwise fine competitors this year.
    “Given our analysis, we initiated a short S&P 500 futures position in the first half of 2020 which had a notional value of approximately -6.6% of the Fund’s total net assets by year end. We are excited about the prospects for the Fund’s equity portfolio, but less excited about the overall equity market (e.g., the S&P 500). In shorting equity index futures, we are able to manage the overall equity exposure of the Fund while still maintaining idiosyncratic exposure to the companies we favor.”
    https://www.dodgeandcox.com/pdf/shareholder_reports/dc_balanced_annual_report.pdf
    - Excuse D&C’s self-promotion here. Hard to edit it out without distorting the underlying meaning.
  • Yale chief investment officer Swensen dies of cancer
    Mr. Swenson transformed the institutional investment community.
    His "Yale Model" allocated considerable capital to alternative assets and was widely imitated by other endowments. He mentored numerous investment professionals who are now associated with other university endowments (Princeton, MIT, Univ. of Penn., Bowdoin, Wesleyan). Mr. Swenson could have pursued a very lucrative career on Wall Street, but his loyalty to Yale and its students was a higher priority.
    May he rest in peace...
  • What will you do if (when?)...."frothy" markets turn into a Scheisse Fest?
    @JD_co : Thanks for the link. I would like to see some of Fido's data when the last market dropped in Feb. 2020. Did ETF's or MF's lead the way.
    Derf
  • What will you do if (when?)...."frothy" markets turn into a Scheisse Fest?
    What will I do if the stock market declines by 20% or more? Nothing except maybe reallocate some $'s from cash/bonds to stocks/other. What -- if anything -- gets sold will depend on the reasons for the decline and tax considerations. What gets bought will depend on what the market presents when the pullback occurs.
    Gains have already been harvested a couple of times this year to get back to the January allocation %'s. That has resulted in significant increases to the $'s allocated to cash and bonds image. That process will continue as the year progresses if the risk markets continue to shine.
  • keep gambling ?!! Anyone buying dogecoin
    I surely have better use of my time and not wasting electrons that are about to travel the communications path from my house to the MFO server. However, the thread is almost a SNL pre-write skit unto itself.
    I've not more time to provide right now, as I am establishing the needed trajectory web sites so that I am able to track, in real time; the fully accurate path of the incoming Chinese rocket remains this evening. Of some benefit, is that the arrive time; if the path is over Michigan, is that the night sky will be able to provide a visual observation of the debris. The longest side of our house is 91 feet, so I have this reference for the size of the debris. The current problem is that if I have an inbound visual in the night sky, what is the exact path and at 18,000 mph, would I be able to relocate with sufficient speed to avoid the impact.
    Although we use a very stable and fast broadband connection, I remain concerned about the "ping" time involved with tracing sites I will be using.
    Definition: Ping amounts of 100 ms and below are average for most broadband connections. In gaming, any amounts below a ping of 20 ms are considered exceptional and “low ping,” amounts between 50 ms and 100 ms range from very good to average, while a ping of 150 ms or more is less desirable and deemed “high ping.”Jan 29, 2020
    So, I have to find a math calculation site that will allow me to determine how to enter a visual siting distance in miles, using 18,000 mph for speed and whether ping time will affect my ability to get the hell out of the way of impact at my community or street address.
    Note: Hopefully, there will not be a "Breaking News" scroll during SNL.
    May the force or any force you choose, be with you.
    Where's Scotty when I really need him for the beam up and away??? :):):)
    Thank you for your time. I do believe I need another cup of coffee on this cold spring morning in Michigan.
    Catch
  • keep gambling ?!! Anyone buying dogecoin
    @JohnN - It’s all tied to SNL tonight.
    “The cryptocurrency dogecoin, one of Musk's favorite market playthings, has been trading higher in anticipation of the SNL appearance.” STORY
    Depends. Do you have good low latency broadband and TV reception? Are you fast on a keyboard or with a mouse? The Dogecoin market is keying on Elon Musk’s appearance on SNL tonight (Saturday). Also make sure your TV provider is low latency. Anything could happen. And you’ll be gaming with some of the smartest and best equipped gamblers as Musk either: (A) addresses / promotes Dogecoin, (B) performs a comedy skit related to Dogecoin, or (C) fails to address Dogecoin at all.
    Choice C would probably be bearish for the crypto. I’d sell. Choice B Is the trickiest, as the humor might run in either direction. And humor is always hard to judge or interpret. Your best bet is choice A - an all out endorsement (Buy!). But I’m thinking that’s unlikely as it might land him in hot water with the SEC.
    If not certain whether your keyboarding skills and equipment are up to snuff on all of this, consider selling your investment around 11:28 PM (Eastern Daylight Savings Time) - just seconds before the show airs. If you’ve ever tried betting during a sporting event telecast on “live” TV, you know the importance of low latency (real time viewing). A lot of events experience a time delay due to the time it takes the signal to make its way through the infrastructure to you. (Worst are the satellite providers like DirecTV.) Imagine betting during a fast-paced basketball game when what you’re viewing on-screen actually occurred 30 seconds earlier. A team might score 8 or 10 points during that time and you’d be oblivious to it when submitting a bet.
    Ironically, Musk’s Starlink internet is known for having very low latency due to the satellites being so close to Earth. So users of his broadband network might actually have an edge in this case. LINK
    Good luck. (Please don’t bet the ranch.)
  • What will you do if (when?)...."frothy" markets turn into a Scheisse Fest?
    I'm 71yo and have my Scheißfest plan all set. The plan is to do almost nothing.
    My AA is almost 70% equities, all in mutual funds and ETFs. I keep 5 years of expenses in my credit union savings account. I am a low spender.
    March 2020, I sold some ETFs in my taxable account where I could TLH. Anything that had gains, stayed. Within a few weeks, all that loose money was invested in new ETFs. So I'm fiddling with my taxes.
    Since I likely won't need the money in my investment accounts, it doesn't matter what they do in the near term. I'm able to weather the storm, it seems. In March 2020, the value of my portfolio went down by more than my house is assessed, and I shrugged and did something else. This was part of my written plan. In late 2019, after a great year, I restated what do when the Scheiß hit the fan. Didn't know I would have to implement it so soon.
  • Interesting view of TMSRX through Lipper Lens
    Yes, the investor share at 1.22% is not cheap, but other alternative funds could cost even more. Don't recall that the fund ever took aggressive short equity position greater than 5%. Nevertheless 2020 drawdown was -8%, whereas Vanguard balanced index was down 2x as much. The fund did well by year end. The 100% turnover indicated very active trading of the positions in the fund. These days AI or machine learning algorithms is used in these type of funds.
    BTW, I also invested in it too since the inception. It will be interesting to see how this fund held up today as the market pullback.
  • ACA Users - Change to PTC true-up
    Good link.
    Even better, if your software was flaky and did true-up the premiums, the IRS will fix it for you. From the cited page:
    Taxpayers who have already filed their 2020 tax return and who have excess APTC for 2020 do not need to file an amended tax return or contact the IRS. The IRS will reduce the excess APTC repayment amount to zero with no further action needed by the taxpayer. The IRS will reimburse people who have already repaid any excess advance Premium Tax Credit on their 2020 tax return.
  • ACA Users - Change to PTC true-up
    Hey folks!
    I filed my taxes electronically - and then realized the provider did not true-up my ACA premiums. Turns out, that was correct. The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 suspends the requirement that taxpayers increase their tax liability by all or a portion of their excess advance payments of the Premium Tax Credit (excess APTC) for tax year 2020. A taxpayer's excess APTC is the amount by which the taxpayer's advance payments of the Premium Tax Credit (APTC) exceed his or her Premium Tax Credit (PTC).
    https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-suspends-requirement-to-repay-excess-advance-payments-of-the-2020-premium-tax-credit-those-claiming-net-premium-tax-credit-must-file-form-8962
  • Franklin International Small Cap Fund will re-open to investors
    This fund is being completely changed. When it reopens, it will be with a new subadvisor, Clearbridge (Legg Mason, now owned by Franklin Templeton). Until then, the fund (with its 1* rating) will continue to be managed by Franklin Templeton.
    Based on the managers named, one may expect it to be a sibling, if not a clone, of 3* Clearbridge Int'l Small Cap (LCOAX). F-T is significantly reducing fees on the Franklin fund to roughly match that of the Clearbridge fund.
  • Value funds with high cash levels finds Clarkston Funds
    It is always fascinating to me that during market peaks, the level of cash in most mutual funds, even value funds, drops to near zero. I am always surprised these managers seem to be willing to buy at any price. In the past LLPFX always seems to be the poster child for "If we can't find anything worth buying we won"t) but they have clearly seen better days and are struggling.
    Given the rapid run up in Value funds, I am reluctant to add more capital to funds that seem to have thrown caution to the wind.
    A search of M* for cash levels over 10% in funds of four stars or more, turns up only a few candidates Yacktman funds YACKX, Brandes small cap BACSX, our friends QRSVX, Neuberger Berman NPNAX, Olstein OFSAX ( I thought he retired!) and a firm I have never heard of, Clarkston CILGX. ( I tried a similar search on MFO but it turned up nothing. Not sure the "Cash Allocation" criteria is the same)
    Clarkston seems like an interesting group; the kind of funds many members are interested in. Small out of the way, owned by the employees, managers heavily invested (over $1,000,000) in their cooking, available at Schwab and Fido.. A great Owl, also. There fund reports have a fair amount of detail about their processes.
    Anybody know any more about them?
  • Funds Not Performing Well for Me YTD: MSEGX MACGX ARTYX FSEAX
    If you look at the indeces, rotation from growth to value started in fall 2020 as the Fed came to the rescue in March. As the economy recovered, the stock market broadened to include the smaller cap stocks. For diversification purpose, it would be good to hold both growth and value funds. The key is to be patient as @Crash suggested.