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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • questions for Teresa Kong, Matthews Asia Strategic Income?
    Hi again David.
    Another question if I may...
    I noticed that MINCX/MAINX has no holdings in India, Pakistan, New Zealand or Taiwan. Is that because Ms Kong does not see equivalent opportunities there, or are there additional issues holding investments in these countries? Similarly, are there issues/restrictions holding bonds in mainland China? It seems the fund's holdings focus on companies traded on Hong Kong exchange versus say Shanghai or Shenzhen exchanges.
  • Funds for my Roth at Fidelity
    Keeping with mostly Fidelity and all NTF funds I suspect I'm over complication things with too many funds but I have listed what I'm thinking below.
    I'm going to add FBALX @13% and am thinking about lowering FFFEX by 5% or maybe selling and replacing with OAKBX or other. I'm not sure if having both it is redundant.
    To boost international exposure I am considering FEDDX @5% , and FIGFX @ 8%, but trying to decide between FIVFX, FIGFX.
    Also considering MAINX.
    The goal here is to let it sit and hopefully grow until I make a 2014 contribution.
    Current Allocation
    TGLDX 6.5%
    ARIVX 10.5%
    FFFEX 18.5%
    TOPPX 6.5%
    FCNTX 5.25%
    FSDIX 7.25%
    FLPSX 9.0%
    Stocks 7.5%
    Cash 29.0%
    Allocation after Change
    FFFEX or OAKBX=13.0%
    FBALX=13.0%
    FCNTX=5%
    TGLDX=7.5%
    FSDIX=7.75%
    FLPSX=9.5%
    ARIVX=13.5%
    TOPPX=5.0%
    FEDDX=5.0%
    FIGFX=8.5%
    SPHIX=4.5%
    MAINX=2.25%
    Cash=5.5%
    Thanks for your thoughts, input and suggestions.
    DPN
  • questions for Teresa Kong, Matthews Asia Strategic Income?
    Hi David.
    Like you, I too found few offerings comparable to this intriguing fund.
    I searched for fixed income funds focused on same Asian region that MINCX/MAINX provides in its literature:
    image
    Below is comparison of funds I found:
    image
    MAINX tops list of life time APR relative to cash, though of course it is a young fund. Still, it seems to have low down side volatility (so far) and a very good yield. Most of the offerings here are young, actually, except Aberdeen Asia Bond Institutional CSABX and Western Asset Global Government Bond I WAFIX, although the latter seems to have a bit broader global domain.
    Here's look at just relative time frame, since inception of MAINX in Dec '11:
    image
    And the attendant risk measures, all over same time period:
    image
    I like that Teresa Kong and Robert Horrocks both appear to have invested in the fund, since you first posted the profile last year.
    A question I would have for the teleconference is what is their philosophy in handling down side and draw down volatility.
    Very much looking forward to this call.
    Thanks again for all you do with MFO.
  • questions for Teresa Kong, Matthews Asia Strategic Income?
    Reply to @andrei: MAINX at times has some risk-off characteristics that most straight-EM debt funds don't. Looking purely at Asia, there are quite a few days when it's up in price when Asian stock funds are down. I think it fits pretty well in a lower-risk Asia sub-portfolio, which squares with how I want to invest ~ 25% of assets. I think people not particularly interested in Asia as a region on its own would have much less reason to invest in MAINX.
  • questions for Teresa Kong, Matthews Asia Strategic Income?
    Reply to @andrei: I think it's a tough comparison to be matching up a world bond fund (MAINX) to an emerging market bond fund (FNMIX). I would expect differences.
  • questions for Teresa Kong, Matthews Asia Strategic Income?
    Interestingly, during the last 6 months FNMIX and MAINX have similar results, but MAINX does it with smaller volatility. So maybe indeed this is the growing pains.
    Even more interestingly, during the same time interval PIMIX beats both of these funds, with even smaller volatility...
  • questions for Teresa Kong, Matthews Asia Strategic Income?
    Kinda a tough compare between FNMIX and MAINX; as FNMIX is spread around the world for the "em" exposure.
    Since inception (Nov. 30, 2011), for MAINX finds the following:
    FNMIX = + 21.9%
    MAINX = + 10.7%
  • questions for Teresa Kong, Matthews Asia Strategic Income?
    Yes, just using the M* thumbnail statistic going back one year (from today, not at the inception of MAINX) shows MAINX at +14.05% since 18 January, 2012.
    FNMIX at +20.52%
    PREMX at +19.11%
    Maybe it sounds too convenient an excuse, but chalk up the difference to "growing pains?" I seem to recall from a previous fund report on MAINX that Ms. Kong reduced or eliminated some underperforming bonds from a particular country. The realty bonds from "Kwg Property Holdings" have been a very positive addition.
  • questions for Teresa Kong, Matthews Asia Strategic Income?
    What would be the main advantage in investing in MAINX as compared e.g. in the emerging markets bond funds. For example, FNMIX outperformed MAINX since inception of MAINX.
  • questions for Teresa Kong, Matthews Asia Strategic Income?
    FAX is a very good CEF. The other difference w/ MAINX is currency exposure: MAINX has more Asian currency exposure, and negligible Australian, at least now ... in very round numbers, FAX is 20% Asian, 40% Oz, & 40% U.S.:
    http://www.aberdeenfax.com/doc.nsf/Lit/FactsheetUSClosedFAX
  • questions for Teresa Kong, Matthews Asia Strategic Income?
    Reply to @BenWP: Excellent! I knew there was another and couldn't find it this morning when I was composing.
    Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Common (FAX) is a Gold-rated CEF. $2 billion in AUM. Expenses and returns close to MAINX. Two clear distinctions: FAX is 40% or so in Australia, MAINX is 3%. And MAINX is about 10% equities.
    Thanks for the catch!
    David
  • questions for Teresa Kong, Matthews Asia Strategic Income?
    Hi, guys.
    Our call with Teresa is Tuesday night at 7. You're most welcome to join in and to help out.
    MAINX has returned 14% in a bit over a year. It's largely alone in its space. I know of two direct competitors, Aberdeen Asia Bond and WisdomTree Asia Local Debt ETF, in addition to simple world bond and aggregate bond benchmarks. Two things are true so far: MAINX has outperformed all four and the performance gap seems to have widened in the past six months. Like T Rowe Price Spectrum Income, MAINX holds a stake in income-producing equities, which is likely helping.
    I'd be delighted to aggregate and pass along any questions you might have for here. The text I shared with the folks who've signed up for the conference call mailing list follows. Please excuse the slightly-goofy layout. It looked nice in the email but I couldn't quite get it to translate here.
    David
    -------------------------------
    The Observer is pleased to invite you to join a conversation with Teresa Kong, manager of Matthews Asia Strategic Income (MAINX). The fund combines Ms. Kong's dauntingly rich background, Matthews' depth in Asia investing and a fundamentally intriguing set of opportunities. It has just completed its first year of operations.
    Our conference call with Teresa will be Tuesday, January 22, from 7:00 - 8:00 EST. Just click REGISTER and you'll take been to the Chorus Call website where you'll register and receive a toll-free number and a PIN. As before, we'll try to divide the call in thirds: in the first third, Teresa will talk us through the fund's genesis, universe and strategy. In the middle third, I'll ask a handful of questions - some suggested by folks on the Observer's discussion board. For the final third, we'll open the lines to your questions.
    For a sense of what's coming, here are her thoughts on the topics she'd like to talk with you about:
    Investors’ global quest for yield has fueled interest in emerging market bonds. Given the low yields available in the U.S., what are the opportunities within Asia fixed income and why are a growing number of investors now allocating to this asset class?
    The rationale for investing in Asia fixed income and how it can be included within a diversified fixed income portfolio
    The region’s key drivers of return: credit, currency and interest rates
    Matthews Asia Strategic Income seeks to add value through individual security selection based on that security’s credit, currency of denomination and underlying interest rate
    The global macroeconomic environment: given the U.S.’s slow path to recovery, what is the interest rate outlook and how will it impact fixed income markets in Asia?
    If U.S. outperforms its current path of employment growth then are interest rates more likely to rise?
    The Great Rotation (sound dramatic, doesn't it?)
    Is the interest rate bull run of the 30 years over?
    So it's Tuesday, January 22, from 7:00 - 8:00 EST. Just click REGISTER. I'm really looking forward to the conversation and hope that you'll join us.
    As ever,
    David
  • Rich Bond Yields You're Likely Missing: Emerging Markets
    Quoting from the article: "Investors poured $20 billion into emerging-market bond funds last year through November (the most recent data available), almost double the $12.5 billion that flowed into the funds in 2011, according to investment researcher Morningstar Inc. Those buyers have been rewarded: emerging-market bond funds gained close to 18% in 2012 — the best-performing fixed-income category Morningstar tracks..."
    Yes, it's been a nice ride over the last few years, while I've been severely overweight in PREMX and last year took a small position in MAINX.......PREMX, in terms of share price, has faltered very recently, but only after a very strong run-up, touching old highs and surging through those "old" highs, little by little, through 2012, in particular. But I've just "let it ride," not ADDING anything to PREMX for 2 years, now. The divs. just roll in at the end of every month and get added to the pot.
    PREMX 3-yr return: 11.37%
    MAINX is a bit over a year old, now: up 14.68%, looking back exactly one year. (Morningstar.)
  • Weekend Open Thread - What Is Anyone Buying/Selling/Ideas?
    The urge to do something usually passes. Last reallocation was doubling precious metals exposure from 5% to 10% last spring and summer, Vanguard and Fidelity mining stock funds,
    the Fidelity fund routinely tracks the xau index, the Vanguard more a basic materials fund, their performance markedly diverges.
    'Take action now' bond fund reallocations since new years--
    All of SGL, a UBS managed closed-end nonleveraged global income fund, for more RPHYX.
    Seldom mentioned, SGL has outperformed GIM in recent years.
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SGL&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=gim
    GIM was at a premium, SGL at its typical high single digit discount when acquired in '09,
    took the recent rebound and spread compression as an exit opportunity.
    Two thirds of MAINX for SUBFX, initial position after observing a few months, they seem to have mostly taken to the sidelines from recent reports. Hopefully paid-to-wait reduced risk havens in the event of a general bond market selloff. By any traditional measure bonds/fixed income are overvalued thanks to central engineering, perhaps it is different this time but if history serves guide that is not the way to bet. Good luck to all.
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323717004578157152464486598.html
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323316804578161324169068746.html#printMode
    A mini “exit strategy” is definitely in order – and it’s been awhile since the markets had to fret about a reversal of Fed accommodation. And, importantly, the longer “risk on” spurs global market excesses – the more pressing it will be for the Fed to act. Yet, ongoing “fiscal cliff” risks abound. Fed timidity raises the probabilities that an unleashed “risk on” finds an opening. And a scenario of runaway “risk on” - and a Fed some months down the road forced to reverse course - would play right into the “2013 fat tails, bi-polar outcome possibilities” thesis. Less hypothetical is today’s predicament that highly speculative global risk market behavior is dictated by expectations for ongoing extreme policy accommodation – although I suspect policymakers have little clarity on the future course of policy because they haven’t a clue as to what the future holds for a rather robust and unwieldy “risk on, risk off” speculative market Bubble Dynamic.
    http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10748
    Fun fun fun til daddy takes the t-bill away.
  • Bond funds have been a real debacle the first five trading days of 2013!!
    Makes sense about Gundlach. I wanted/needed a core bond fund. His (DLFNX) is not truly typical, though. I don't mind if it's atypical, as long as it produces. I like not to travel with the herd, though some of my holdings have been around a long time with huge sums in the kitty for the fund managers to play with. On the other hand, I'm into MAINX and SFGIX and MSCFX all while they are still very young. I'm up 19% in MSCFX just since last Spring.
  • Bond funds have been a real debacle the first five trading days of 2013!!
    Well, I find that my bond funds have indeed clunked, to use Catch's word, above, particularly PREMX. And DLFNX is going nowhere fast. My other is MAINX. It's doing just a sliver better. These are informal observations, not hard calculations. I also own MAPOX---a balanced fund--- owning about 30% bonds, and it was actually up today. Generally, I see rates will be rising. No surprise. My monthly dividends from PREMX and DLFNX will buy me more shares. Yields will go back up, some. When I first bought PREMX, the yield was about 7% and is down below 6% right now.
  • MFO Commentary - January 2013
    Another chock full commentary, thank you David.
    On outflows, I still struggle a bit on relative significance here...
    In the last full week of 2012, investors pulled $750 million from US stock funds and added $1.25 billion into international ones.
    Again, I believe there is something like $18 Trillion in US equities. Think AndyJ and I believe that while these flows are large in absolute terms, they seem fairly insignificant compared to relative overall investment, no?
    Here's life-time performance summary of the bond fund picks in the Forbe's article you reference:
    image
    FWIW, the Loomis Sayles Bond fund lost more than 20% in 2008.
    Looking forward to the MFO conference call with Teresa Kong, manager of Matthews Asia Strategic Income MAINX.
    Glad to see Cook & Bynum Fund COBYX reducing its expense ratio.
    Podcasts page is a good addition to the MFO website.
    Glad to see you will be profiling Whitebox Long Short Equity WBLSX and PIMCO Short Asset Investment PAIUX.
    Thanks again for all the good work...and, Happy New Year!
  • Mutual Funds That Beat The Market - Part 4 (Fixed Income)

    A review of fixed income funds, which for this post includes funds that invest in government or corporate bonds, loan stock and non-convertible preferred stock. This type of fund has been getting considerable attention lately on MFO with a growing concern that investors could be lulled into false sense of security.
    To recap a little from Mutual Funds That Beat The Market - Part 1, there are about 1880 funds of this type, of which 30% have actually delivered higher life-time returns than the SP500, and more importantly and relevant, 98% have beaten cash.
    In the tabulation below, purple means the fund was a top performer relative to T-Bill over its life time, blue represents highest Sharpe (if not already a top APR), and yellow represents worst performing APR. I included other notables based on David's profiles, numerous suggestions in the various threads by MFO readers (bee, catch22, claimui, fundalarm, hank, Hiyield007, Investor, johnN, MaxBialystock, MikeM, Mona, msf, Old_Joe, scott, Shostakovich, Skeeter, Ted and others), and some of my own interest.
    A reminder that I only used oldest share class, so for popular funds like PONDX, you will find PONAX, similarly MAINX is MINCX, etc.
    Here's the break-out, by fund inception date:
    image
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    Some observations:
    - Every fund listed (5 years or older) with current yields of 6% or more, lost more than 20% of its value in 2008, except three: PIMCO Income A PONAX, which lost only 6.0%; TCW Total Return Bond I TGLMX, which lost only 6.2% (in 1994); and First Eagle High Yield I FEHIX, which lost 15.8%.
    - In fact, of all fixed income funds more than five years or older that have current yields of 6% or more, nearly 3 out of 4 had a down-year of 20% or more. Those yielding 5% or more did not do much better. For what it's worth, the break point appears to be between 4 and 5%. Funds with less than 4% current yield did much, much better. Here is summary:
    image
    - Just glance over the list...you will see that PIMCO has produced many top performing fixed income funds.
    - Fortunately, again, nearly every fixed income fund existing today has beaten cash over its life time, some 98%. The 44 funds with negative Sharpe actually fall into two distinct categories: First, those with negative Sharpe, but positive life-time APR. These are generally funds with short duration and/or tax exempt funds. Second, those with negative Sharpe and negative life-time APR. There are 25 such funds, but it's reassuring to find only 3 older than three years old, which presumably means fixed income funds that actually lose money don't stay around very long. The three enduring poor performers, tabulated below, are: AMF Ultra Short AULTX, SEI Instl Mgd Enhanced Income A SEEAX, and WisdomTree Euro Debt EU.
    image
    Both AULTX and EU have less than $10M AUM, but SEEAX is fairly substantial AUM at $170M, which is simply hard to believe...
    image
    For those interested, I've posted results of this thread in an Excel file Funds That Beat The Market - Nov 12.

  • Re JohnN's Q: Which funds would you folks most likely hold for another 1-3 yrs?
    Unless something changes with managers or management philosophy, equity funds that will stick around are at a fairly high percentage are YAFFX, ARIVX and MACSX (which you could argue is more of an allocation fund). I have smaller stakes in ODVIX, UMBWX and MSMLX which I could add to if markets drop.
    For bonds, I'll likely hold on to MWTRX, TPINX and MAINX. I bought into PONDX this year, but I worry a little about a fund that goes up so high for so long - but plan to hold. I still hold a small percentage in LSBRX but this may not last. I have reduced the LSBRX stake over the last couple months to buy PONDX.
    I really like allocation funds, and I've collected a stable I'm comfortable with; FPACX, PGDPX and PAUIX. FAAFX is also in the allocation stable and I intend to hold on for the ride because over a market cycle I believe Berkowitz is a good bet.
    I hold a few other's, but I consider the above as my hold-onto funds