Hi Guys,
A few days ago Catch22 posted a request for a little help in constructing a portfolio for a retiring couple. The response was huge, literally a tidal wave of informed questions and excellent suggestions. That was somewhat surprising given the fact that the profile for the retiring couple indicated that they were relatively well healed, and, for the most part, had pretty much all their ducks in proper alignment.
This was not a problematic assignment, yet the enthusiasm was infectious. Retirement planning occupies every investors planning process at least one time. It is one of the seminal events in a lifetime. The decision itself and the decision making process are stressful but necessary exercises.
Although decision making is more art then science, most retirement planning experts favor examining multiple options and doing “what if” scenario drills. That’s because the future is so uncertain. The decision to finally pull the retirement trigger is often painful. Sometimes analysis paralysis adds to the discomfort. The saving news is that there are some nice resources nearby on the Internet.
The mathematical tool that is specifically designed to address uncertain outcomes is Monte Carlo simulations.
All the major mutual fund houses acknowledge the retirement decision tipping point and the mental anguish it precipitates. They have reacted with free excellent Monte Carlo-like planning tools. That’s good.
I know, I know you’re saying” there he goes again”. That’s true. But within the last month I discovered a “better” Monte Carlo tool. I promise this is the last such posting (well at least for a few weeks).
Some investors are predisposed against statistical analyses, especially Monte Carlo techniques. It is perceived as far too mathematical, too exotic, too sophisticated. Nonsense; you need not know how to build a car to use it. There is financial risk to such ruinous behavior. The mathematics and the random selection of parameters is not conceptually complex; it is quite simple.
If that’s true you might ask, then why is the method not more commonly applied? The answer is that it is, especially since the proliferation of the home computer.
The speed of the modern computer allows the simple procedure to be executed thousands of times while a labor intensive pencil-and-paper approach could only evaluate a single scenario. The particular code that I will recommend does 10,000 random cases for each situation specified. Decision making teachers all endorse multiple option explorations over limited examinations. That’s the beauty and primary advantage of Monte Carlo simulations.
There is a large and constantly growing band of brothers who are recognizing its benefits and applying the Monte Carlo approach. It is a specifically suited tool for exploring uncertain events to estimate probabilities. The expanding field of advocates are found in the Mathematics, Physical Sciences, Computational, Engineering, Business, Financial, and Retirement Planning communities. From its limited World War II era introduction, it is now a ubiquitous tool.
In an uncertain environment, having some formal procedure to estimate the success odds of any project and its options is of paramount importance.
As behavioral researchers Belsky and Gilovich remarked: “Odds are, you don’t know what the odds are”. In some sense, investing is a form of gambling. Award winning economist Paul Samuelson cautioned that “It is not easy to get rich in Las Vegas, at Churchill Downs, or at the local Merrill Lynch office”. However, investing is not a Zero-Sum game. Odds can be tilted to favor the patient, prudent, and informed player.
The recently discovered superior Monte Carlo simulator is from Flexible Retirement Planner. Please consider exploiting this especially useful aid to the retirement decision process:
http://www.flexibleretirementplanner.com/wp/or more directly to the simulator itself:
http://www.flexibleretirementplanner.com/wp/planner-launch-page/It is very fast, very flexible, and very worth a visit. This particular Monte Carlo code was written by an experienced, practical, retirement specialist. The calculator’s organization clearly demonstrates the benefits of his hands-on experience.
Monte Carlo analyses are the only investment tool that yields a reasonable estimate of the odds for a successful retirement. It certainly is not perfect, but it is far better than a crystal ball. By using it to explore various retirement and investment options, a candidate retiree can adjust his plans to improve his performance.
Understand that Monte Carlo codes never guarantee 100 % accuracy. That’s impossible in an uncertain world full of unknowable Black Swan happenings.
Many industry specialists suggest that retirement be delayed until Monte Carlo simulations forecast a 95 % success likelihood. That means that there is a 5 % possibility of portfolio bankruptcy. There will always be residual risk in retirement. A parametric Monte Carlo analyses helps a candidate retiree to identify and to minimize that risk, not entirely eliminate it.
In some instances, the stock market will turn sour shortly into retirement. That is unfortunate but not fatal. Those retiring just before 2008 suffered that nightmare. No mechanical tool, no soot
hsayer could have forecasted that scenario. Don’t indiscriminately scapegoat the analytical tool for the Black Swan physical happening.
Please take advantage of this outstanding resource. It will be both a learning experience and an opportunity to assess your portfolio’s survival odds. Also, I suggest you do a few “what-if” exploratory cases to examine potential pitfalls and improvements. The referenced code makes that an easy chore.
Good luck guys. Some folks might even perceive running these codes as fun.
Anyway, I have fun making the Monte Carlo case. I shall now go quietly and happily into the night.
Best Regards.