European equities getting clocked today … The discrepancy between the performance of the stated fund share price and the performance of the portfolio may be due to fair value pricing.
https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2020-302 Morningstar provides last trade price, which for Russian stocks was Feb 25. A bit stale.
Rerunning the numbers, assuming that TRP completely wrote off all Russian stocks, one gets a loss of around 77%. If TRP "marked down" some non-Russian securities as well, that could account for the other 9% in losses.
Assuming that's what is going on, it is instructive to compare with EUROX. That fund, as of start of year, had over 56% invested in Europe. So if it had written off its Russian holdings, the fund would have dropped in fair value price at least 56%. Yet its YTD loss is a much smaller 42%.
(The fund did have a few winners that may have boosted its YTD return by a couple of percent, but these were well outweighed by its non-Russian losers.)
What this suggests is that how a fund prices its holdings can make a huge difference in its stated performance. Also, that the fund's board does matter. While funds can delegate pricing to third parties, the board retains oversight and is ultimately responsible for the prices.
See thread on Mairs and Power proxy vote (in large part a vote to change to a new board).
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/59232/mairs-power-proxy-vote-on-murkiness
CEF funds @yogibearbullInteresting article. You mention PDI ( 6% premium today) and TBLD (6% discount)
TBLD liquidates in 2033 so at least the discount will disappear.
If it pays a high distribution, and therefore returns
capital, what would that do to your returns?
The 10 stock and bond funds with the biggest Russia exposure Among the fund families,
Capital Group (American Funds) had/has most Russia exposure.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/us-investment-manager-capital-group-was-among-top-exposed-russia-data-2022-03-02/"NEW YORK, March 2 (Reuters) -
Capital Group Companies Inc, one of the world's largest investment management companies, known for its American Funds mutual funds, had billions in exposure to Russian companies that have been either sanctioned or curbed by the United States over Russia's invasion of Ukraine, according to the latest data on the fund's website.....The Los Angeles-based firm, which has over $2.4 trillion in assets under management, according to its website, had $4.55 billion in exposure across its American Funds franchise to Gazprom , Sberbank (SBMX.MM), Alrosa (ALRS.MM) and Sovkomflot (FLOT.MM) as of Dec 31.....Separate data from research firm Morningstar, analyzed by Reuters, showed that
Capital Group had at least $8.19 billion in exposure to Russia in its equity and fixed income funds according to latest available data. The data was on the top 100 open-end funds and ETFs worldwide....."
To dip or not ? Hi Derf,
With about 22 holdings (mainly funds) I’ve more than enough. Only own 3 stocks: RIO, Y, WPM. The first 2 are pretty conservative companies with strong balance sheets. As far as I know, so is the third. So I sleep well and pay little heed to them.
On the contrary, both ARKK and DKNG resemble “loose & loaded cannons” ready to fire in any direction at any moment. I suspect a lot of $$ will be made in them - but lack the patience to own either. They’d also be fun to trade in and out of - grabbing off quick 5-10% gains every few weeks. Of course, there’s no guarantee. I’ll leave it to the younger ones here to mess with them. Thrills and chills …
Not much dipping here. In fact, I’ve placed a sign over the portfolio tracker keyboard reading “Do Not Touch“ - just to make sure I don’t mess with anything. :)
Thanks for the interesting thread!
U.S. Investors Flee to Money Market Funds Amid Ukraine Crisis Agree. Cash flow data is a backward indicator that tends to be a bit late. Tough spot for bond investors this year with the possibility of 4-7 rate hikes. Then again moving to equity poses a complete set of risk on capital loss.
CEF funds There are several CEFs which are listed as Great Owls, such as BST, BUI, ETO...etc. Patience is a virtue with CEF's, but when purchased at a discount they have the ability to generate a substantial amount of income, along with solid capital gains.
U.S. Investors Flee to Money Market Funds Amid Ukraine Crisis “U.S. investors purchased money market funds and withdrew cash from higher risk equity funds in the week to Feb. 23, as a rush for safety dominated markets in the run up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. U.S. money market funds accumulated capital worth a net $5.98 billion in their first weekly inflows since Jan 26 …
“U.S. bond funds lost $3.66 billion in a seventh consecutive week of net selling, but the net selling was 92% lower than the previous week.”Article - Data ending 2/23
Giroux selling energy / value stocks. “We have really fundamentally changed…” WSJ Sound very reasonable. Given the size of the fund, he would buy the stocks in increments over time in order to build a meaningful position in the fund. Apple is large enough (liquidity) large lots bought or sold would not change the pricing as it would in thinly traded smaller cap stocks. Similarly he bought GE prior to spring 2020’s drawdown and continued afterward. Today GE is the 4th position. The fund often has high single digit % in cash.
Anyone care to explain what’s going on with the 10-year treasury bond? USD and bonds considered "safe haven" investments. Investors will skim off some capital gains from rising bond prices and move on to the next investment !
Worst day for bonds I’ve seen in a while
Anyone care to explain what’s going on with the 10-year treasury bond? It’s at
1.72% 1.70% currently, which is lower than it was a year ago Now, how do you reconcile that rate with (1) 7%+ inflation and (2) Fed members’ statements to the effect they’ll be hiking the overnight lending rate by .25 to .50% at their next meeting later this month? On the second score, I do understand that those Fed projections were made before things in the Ukraine heated up. But I’m befuddled by the contrast between the documented year-over-year rate of inflation and the meager pittance investors seem willing to accept from a bond over the next 10 years.
ISTM inflation would “eat you alive” over 10 years should you own that bond - even if we lower the inflation expectation to 3-5% yearly, which is closer to what most observers are forecasting. Yes, it could be a
gamble, with folks expecting to unload their bonds in the near future after some
capital appreciation. But that 1.70 rate just doesn’t make sense to me any way you cut it.
To “pun it” - If saving to buy a new pickup truck (now selling for $70,000 +) you’d surely be “spinning your wheels” while holding that 1.70% bond. :)
Chart:
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10YPS - Had to edit post. Bond fell below 1.70% while I was writing.
Giroux selling energy / value stocks. “We have really fundamentally changed…” WSJ Here’s the part I found most interesting -
“He predicts major indexes can still notch gains for the year, recovering their steep losses.” You’d think that for such a bold prediction the WSJ would have quoted directly rather than summarizing or paraphrasing Giroux’s words.
I believe it was Yogi (the 1st) who said making predictions - especially about the future - is difficult. Giroux turned
guru?Thanks
@LewisBraham for the plethora of charts showing relative values & performances of value stocks vs growth over many years. Still trying to digest.
PS - Looks like another blood-bath in the markets shaping up today - unless you like seeing oil jump higher by 10% or so in a day’s time. Wonder if that interview was conducted prior to the invasion of Ukraine? Likely.
Giroux selling energy / value stocks. “We have really fundamentally changed…” WSJ David Giroux, portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price, said he has already sold shares of energy companies in his portfolio—which have outperformed this year—while buying tech stocks like Nvidia Corp., Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. He said he expects oil prices to fall and inflation to moderate over the coming year while economic growth slows down, helping tech stocks. He predicts major indexes can still notch gains for the year, recovering their steep losses. “We have really fundamentally changed” our portfolio, Mr. Giroux said. “A year ago you would’ve seen a big bet on value [stocks]. Now everybody loves that stuff—we’ve been selling that hand over fist.”
Excerpted from: “Ukraine Crisis Upends Investing Playbook for 2022”
The Wall Street Journal, February 28, 2022
BP dumps 20% stake in Russian oil giant / Russia Central Bank Bans Selling Securities By Foreigners BP STORYMarkets are roiled for sure. Oil is spiking. Gold’s only up $20 late evening. Russian commercial flights banned from most of Europe. Treasury bonds rising on falling yields at the moment. What’s fascinating is the heavy global reliance on Ukraine grain exports - particularly wheat. This is leading of course to rising grain prices. China seems to be taking a “wait & see” - not being eager to watch the global economy fall into the dumpster. Late evening Dow futures off over 600 points - but a bouncing ball …..
Here’s the
second story“As the west piles sanctions upon sanctions seeking to crush the Russian economy, moments ago Reuters reported that Russia has made sure that at least those foreigners who have invested in Russian capital markets will have to stay for the ride.
According to Reuters, the Russian central bank – which the US and EU decided will be sanctioned and as a result all transactions will be banned – has ordered market players to reject foreign clients’ bids to sell Russian securities from 0400 GMT on Monday, according to a central bank document seen by Reuters.”
“Why Stocks Rebounded After Russia Invaded Ukraine” (WSJ Opinion & Analysis) (A few of the key points from a rather lengthy WSJ article - Author: James Mackintosh.)
Lead / Opening question:
“Russia invaded Ukraine to start the biggest land war in Europe since Hitler. U.S. stocks soared. What gives? It isn’t that Wall Street secretly loves Vladimir Putin. A close look at the market’s performance on Thursday shows the reality: U.S. equities had a near-perfect reverse of what had been going on this year. It was a great stock-market switcheroo. Stock gains continued on Friday in the U.S. and elsewhere, with Russian shares leaping by a fifth in ruble terms. But it was Thursday’s move that set the tone, and which was so extraordinary on the day Ukraine was invaded… Quite why is less clear, but I have theories …
Possible factors leading to the reversal:
- “Sentiment was depressed, and a moment of panic-selling hit when the market opened, with the CBOE Vix index of implied volatility hitting its highest opening level since 2020 …
- “Attributed to legendary banker Nathan Mayer Rothschild: ‘Buy on the sound of cannon, sell on the sound of trumpets.’ When fear dominates, it’s time to buy, and many did.
- “Investors were already so worried that it didn’t take much to hit rock-bottom and so rebound. The regular American Association of Individual Investors survey this week found the highest proportion of self-described bears in almost a decade, and close to the lowest proportion of bulls.
- “Last week’s Investors Intelligence examination of newsletter writers found bearish sentiment almost equal to bullish for the first time since the March 2020 selloff. And a 10-day smoothed measure of investor opinion from the options market showed the equal-highest proportion of buying of bearish puts (used to protect from falls) to bullish calls (used to bet on rising stock prices) since shortly after the pandemic panic began.” - There’s also some mention that the sanctions a
gainst Russian gas and oil exports (primarily to Western Europe) weren’t as harsh as first expected and are less likely to inflict economic damage.
- Elsewhere (
WSJ and this week’s
Barron’s) there is speculation that the crisis may cause the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of interest rate hikes in coming months - a positive for equities.
All of the above notwithstanding, I thought commentary overall in both the WSJ and
Barron’s on Saturday leaned somewhat towards the bearish camp with one newsletter cited in
Barron’s advising its readers to “pile up cash”.
Excerpts from:
The Wall Street Journal, February 26, 2022 / Here’s a
link; but you’ll likely need a subscription to access.