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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Fuller & Thaler Behavioral Small-Cap Equity Fund limited offering
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1587551/000158064222001627/fullerthalersmcap497.htm
    497 1 fullerthalersmcap497.htm 497
    March 22, 2022
    Fuller & Thaler Behavioral Small-Cap Equity Fund
    A Shares – FTHAX
    C Shares – FTYCX
    Investor Shares – FTHNX
    Institutional Shares – FTHSX
    R6 Shares – FTHFX
    A series of the Capitol Series Trust (the “Trust”)
    Supplement to the Summary Prospectuses, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information,
    Each Dated January 28, 2022
    Fuller & Thaler Behavioral Small-Cap Equity Fund – Limited Offering
    Effective as of the close of business on May 23, 2022 (the “Closing Date”), the Fuller & Thaler Behavioral Small-Cap Equity Fund (the “Fund”) will become offered on a limited basis and investors will be eligible to purchase shares of the Fund only as described below. Certain types of investors will be allowed to invest in the Fund after the Closing Date without any additional authorization. Other types of investors may invest in the Fund after the Closing Date only if approved to do to so by Fuller & Thaler Asset Management, Inc. (the “Adviser”) and the Fund. Investors who fall in neither of these categories will not be allowed to invest in the Fund after the Closing Date:
    Investors Who Will Be Permitted To Purchase Fund Shares After The Closing Date Without Additional Authorization
    The following types of investors may invest in the Fund after Closing Date as specified without additional authorization:
    Shareholders of record of the Fund as of the Closing Date may continue to purchase additional shares in their existing Fund accounts and may continue to reinvest dividends or capital gains distributions from shares owned in the Fund, and may add to their existing Fund accounts through exchanges from other Fuller & Thaler Funds;
    If the shareholder of record is an omnibus account, beneficial owners in that account as of the Closing Date may also continue to purchase additional shares in their existing Fund accounts, may reinvest dividends or capital gain distributions from shares owned in the Fund, and may add to their existing Fund accounts through exchanges from other Fuller & Thaler Funds;
    Group Retirement Plans (and their successor, related and affiliated plans) which have the Fund available to participants prior to the Closing Date may continue to open accounts for new participants and may purchase additional shares in existing participant accounts. In addition, new Group Retirement Plans (and their successor, related and affiliated plans) may invest in the Fund after the Closing Date, may open accounts for new participants, and may purchase shares in such participant accounts. The term “Group Retirement Plans” refers to employer-sponsored retirement, deferred compensation and employee benefit plans, and includes without limitation: (a) group employer-sponsored 401(k) plans, (b) 457 plans; (c) employer-sponsored 403(b) plans; (d) profit-sharing and money purchase pension plans; (e) defined benefit plans; (f) retiree health benefit plans; (g) group annuity separate accounts offered to retirement plans; (g) non-qualified deferred compensation plans; (h) health savings plans; and (i) trusts used to fund any of the foregoing plans.
    To establish eligibility as a Group Retirement Plan, the plan must satisfy the following requirements:
    The plan must be a group plan (more than one participant);
    The shares cannot be held in a commission-based brokerage account; and
    Shares must be either held at a plan level or at the Fund level through an omnibus account of a retirement plan recordkeeper
    Consequently, the term “Group Retirement Plans” does not include traditional IRAs, Roth IRAs, Coverdell Education Savings Accounts, SEPs, SARSEPs, SIMPLE IRAs, KEOGHs, individual 401(k) or individual 403(b) plans.
    Existing fully discretionary fee-based advisory programs, where investment discretion (fund and investment allocations) solely resides with the Financial Intermediary’s home office and where the Financial Intermediary’s home office has full authority to make investment changes without approval from the shareholder, may continue to utilize the Fund for new and existing program accounts;
    Registered Investment Advisory firms that have included the Fund in their discretionary models by the Closing Date and utilize an approved clearing platform may continue to make Fund shares available to new and existing accounts;
    Principals and employees of Fuller & Thaler Asset Management, Inc. and their immediate family members, may utilize the Fund for both new accounts and existing Fund accounts; and
    Fuller & Thaler Asset Management, Inc. may utilize the Fund in new and existing fund accounts.
    Investors Who Will Be Permitted To Purchase Fund Shares After The Closing Date Only With the Approval of the Adviser and the Fund
    The following types of investors may invest in the Fund after Closing Date only with the prior approval of the Fund’s Adviser and the Fund:
    Institutional Investors (including successor, related, or affiliated accounts) may establish a new account with the Fund only if the account has been accepted for investment by the Fund’s Adviser and the Fund. The term “Institutional Investors” includes, but is not limited to, corporations, qualified non-profit organizations, charitable trusts, foundations and endowments, governmental entities (including states, counties and other municipalities, or any instrumentality, department, authority or agency thereof), and banks, trust companies or other depository institutions investing for their own account or on behalf of their clients. The term “Institutional Investors” also includes fee-based “wrap” account sponsors that offer discretionary and non-discretionary arrangements (provided they have an agreement covering the arrangement with the Fund) where the financial advisor or client, as applicable, has investment discretion;
    After the Closing Date, new fully discretionary (including rep as portfolio manager) and non-discretionary (including rep as advisor) fee-based advisory programs may utilize the Fund for program accounts only with the approval by the Fund’s Adviser and the Fund;
    Third party investment manager model portfolios will be able to open new program accounts after the Closing Date only if approved by the Fund’s Adviser and the Fund.
    Except as permitted above, investors will not be permitted to invest in the Fund after the Closing Date. If the Fund receives a purchase order directly from an investor who is not eligible to purchase shares of the Fund after the Closing Date, the Fund will attempt to contact the investor to determine whether he or she would like to purchase shares of another Fund advised by Fuller & Thaler Asset Management, Inc. or would prefer that the investment be refunded. If the Fund cannot contact the investor within 30 days, the entire investment will be refunded.
    * * *
    2
    The Fund in its sole discretion reserves the right at any time to change these policies, including limiting new purchases into the Fund or otherwise modifying the closure policy based on the Fund’s net asset levels and other factors.
    Please refer to the Prospectus of the Fuller & Thaler Behavioral Small-Cap Equity Fund for additional information regarding buying and selling shares.
    Further Information
    For further information, please contact the Fund toll-free at 1-888-912-4562. You may also obtain additional copies of the Fund’s Summary Prospectuses, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information, free of charge, by writing to the Fund c/o Ultimus Fund Solutions, LLC at P.O. Box 46707, Cincinnati, Ohio 45246-0707, by calling the Fund toll-free at the number above or by visiting the Fund’s website at www.fullerthalerfunds.com.
    3
  • "The Market"
    I don’t necessarily think the markets have bottomed. But then if they have I wouldn’t be surprised. Markets always bottom when the fundamentals and news look the worse. That has always been the case on Wall Street. March 2020 was a classic example when COVID was just in its infancy. While not needed, I would still prefer to see a strong upside/downside day on the NYSE. Something that has yet to occur. This is looking more like the 2015/16 bear/ correction bottom than the December 2019 or March 2020 bottom.
    But I am also aware that bear markets are notorious for sucker rallies that reel in the unsuspecting. As we stand today though the Dow, S@P and NASDAQ are closer to their all times highs than their recent bottoms.
  • Cannabis Growth ETF to liquidate
    Not enough users...
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1587982/000139834422006487/fp0074517_497.htm
    Cannabis Growth ETF
    (Ticker Symbol: BUDX)
    A series of Investment Managers Series Trust II (the “Trust”)
    Supplement dated March 28, 2022 to the currently effective
    Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”).
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust has approved a Plan of Liquidation for the Cannabis Growth ETF (the “Fund”). The Plan of Liquidation authorizes the termination, liquidation and dissolution of the Fund.
    The Fund will create and redeem creation units through April 25, 2022 (the “Closing Date”), which will also be the last day of trading of the Fund’s shares on the NYSE Arca, Inc., the Fund’s principal U.S. listing exchange. On or about April 29, 2022 (the “Liquidation Date”), the Fund will cease operations, liquidate its assets, and prepare to distribute proceeds to shareholders of record as of the Liquidation Date. Shareholders of record on the Liquidation Date will receive cash at the net asset value of their shares as of such date. While Fund shareholders remaining on the Liquidation Date will not incur transaction fees, any liquidation proceeds paid to shareholders should generally be treated as received in exchange for shares and will therefore generally give rise to a capital gain or loss depending on a shareholder’s tax basis. Shareholders should contact their tax adviser to discuss the income tax consequences of the liquidation.
    In anticipation of the liquidation of the Fund, Foothill Capital Management, LLC, the Fund’s advisor, may manage the Fund in a manner intended to facilitate its orderly liquidation, such as by raising cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result, during this time, all or a portion of the Fund may not be invested in a manner consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund from achieving its investment objective. Shareholders of the Fund may sell their holdings on the NYSE Arca, Inc. on or prior to the Closing Date. Customary brokerage charges may apply to such transactions. After the Closing Date, we cannot assure you that there will be a market for your shares.
    Please contact the Fund at 1-888-885-0588 if you have any questions or need assistance.
    Please file this Supplement with your records.
  • Nasty day for the inflation hedges …
    I should clarify that my reassessment of inflation assets was triggered largely by global events. Six months ago I thought a lot of industrial metals, agriculture, and especially energy assets were quite overvalued. That was before Russia invaded Ukraine and set in motion a wide range of unanticipated actions / events. The termination of the Nordstrom 2 pipeline project that would have supplied parts of Europe with cheaper natural gas was one. The efforts by NATO states to lessen dependence on Russian oil is another. Than there are the issues with grain production …
    Doesn’t appear to me that this is a temporary phenomenon. So net-net I raised my allocation to real assets from around 8% to 9%. Not a huge change. I accomplished this with the addition of ENOR which tracks an equity index in Norway - a nation rich in energy and minerals that should benefit from the above mentioned global situation. It is weighted about 20% energy and 10% other materials. As I said earlier, domestic petroleum producers and drillers look too expensive for my taste. As a cautionary note: This is a highly volatile fund that fell about 40% in the first quarter of 2020. You may recall, however, that around than oil fell below 0 on the futures markets.
    Real assets look a bit weak again today. Some froth being boiled off. RIO is off 1%. But the stock has been good to me since buying. Gold’s off a small amount and the p/c miners recently turned positive. I’ve always felt that in a well balanced portfolio you should have assets moving in both directions. It’s the days where 100% of my holdings move up in sync or down in sync that worry me.
  • M* -- Bond Investors Facing Worst Losses in Years
    The dreaded Inverted Yield Curve. Lead indicator of a potential recession.
    This is often the case.
    However, the Fed purchased more than $4T in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) since March 2020. The 10 Yr. Treasury yield has been distorted and artificially surpressed.
  • Question - If you close out a fund paying quarterly interest few days before end of quarter?
    Mona: "But assume that the OEF bond fund accrues and pays monthly. You seem clear that if sold mid-month that you don't any of the interest for that month. Where does the interest go?"
    Hey @Mona, it was in the NAV until the ex-date, and if you sold early, you got at least some of it - but in the form of a capital gain.
  • Question - If you close out a fund paying quarterly interest few days before end of quarter?
    If it helps any, the fund I just sold today at Fido is RPGAX
    Actually it confuses matters, as the subject asks about funds paying quarterly divs, and RPGAX pays divs annually.
    https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/tools/fund-research/RPGAX?WTAFeaturedResult=RPGAX#content-prices-distributions
    For any particular fund, just RTFM.
    From the fine manual (prospectus) for RPGAX:
    Any dividends or capital gains are declared and paid annually, usually in December.
    But assume that the OEF bond fund accrues and pays monthly. You seem clear that if sold mid-month that you don't any of the interest for that month. Where does the interest go?
    An example of such a fund is LSBDX. From its prospectus: "Generally each fund declares and pays dividends monthly."
    This is no different from a fund that pays quarterly or annually or on any other schedule. When a fund gets cash from equity dividends or bond interest payments, that cash becomes part of the underlying portfolio. Its value is reflected in the NAV of the fund shares, unless the fund declares (accrues) daily divs.
    The manager may choose to invest the cash, one hopes so. But it doesn't matter in terms of benefiting from stock divs and bond interest in the fund's portfolio.
  • Question - If you close out a fund paying quarterly interest few days before end of quarter?
    It is tricky but there is a system to it.
    Most bond funds accrue dividends daily but pay them monthly. If one sells mid-month, then one gets proportional dividends. NAV is not impacted by distribution.
    Some bond funds and most equity/hybrid funds that pay quarterly/ semiannually/ annually flow dividends through the NAVs. Then, on the ex-div date, price drops by the dividend amount. Only the owners on the record-date get the dividends. In particular; those who buy on/after the ex-div date, and those who sell too early, don't get dividends. There is no proportional treatment. That may seem unfair, but that is the system.
    Tax liability has similar consideration. So the general advice about not buying just before big distributions

    If total distribution (income + cap gains) is done by the “donut” method, than I haven’t adversely impacted net proceeds / end amount. Sounds fair enough. ISTM TRP has always paid income out for RPGAX thru the more conventional method, however quarterly. I may be mistaken
    Appreciate all the thoughts.
  • Barron’s Ranking of Brokerages (March 28 edition)
    Actually a pretty intelligent discussion under the title “Training Investors to Be More Rational”
    (Provided FYI)
    1. Interactive Brokers
    2. Fidelity
    3. E*Trade
    3. Charles Schwab (apparently a tie for #3)
    5. TD Ameritrade
    6. Merrill Edge
    7. tastyworks
    8.Webull
    9. Ally Invest
    10. Robinhood
    10. J.P. Morgan Self-Directing Investing (apparently another tie)
    11. SoFi Invest
    Sorry - I’m not sure what specific criteria were used. For Fidelity they praise its many online features which include tracking of gains and losses as well as some educational tools directed at newer younger investors.
    Coincidentally, the magazine includes a fitting tribute to Ned Johnson as did the WSJ a few days ago.
  • M* -- Bond Investors Facing Worst Losses in Years
    If you want laddering, DRSK maintains 90-95% in an investment grade corporate bond ladder and invests the remainder in equity call options. Up 7% annual since inception in August 2018. Held up extremely well during the 1st quarter 2020. I own only a small bit which is part of a 9-10% hedge position against unexpected (expected :)) declines in equities. / ER .60%
    Not a replacement for a pure fixed income fund. Just tossing it out for consideration.
  • M* -- Bond Investors Facing Worst Losses in Years
    @Charles
    More info on ETF bond ladders here
    https://www.invesco.com/us/en/insights/how-to-build-a-bond-ladder.html
    https://www.ishares.com/us/resources/tools/ibonds
    Detailed analysis of redemptions and returns of ishares ibonds going back to 2012
    https://www.ishares.com/us/literature/investor-education/ibonds-series-case-study-en-us.pdf
    pdf shows all of ibond MUNIS redeemed at or above starting NAV. Two of ibond corporates redeemed at a loss from initial NAV but only 1.5% or so. I can't find any data for the Bullet shares on redemption NAV
    Ibonds are far more diversified with thousands of individual bonds, vs hundreds in Bullet shares.
    I ran a comparison of a five year Muni ibond ladder with VMLUX.
    Duration is 2.49 vs 2.3 for VMLUX SEC 30 day yield is 1.22 vs 1.23.
    To compare with VWIUX ( Dur 4.3) need to use Bullet shares for 7 year ladder ( ibonds only go to 2028 now)
    Bullet dur 4.08 SEC 30 day yield 1.59%
    Bullet 8 year ladder Dur 5.37 yield 1.77
    VWIUX dur 4.9 SEC yield 1.77
    These are equal amounts in each ladder. You could tweak it to adjust duration if you wanted.
    With ETFs, like an individual bond, you know when and what $ you will get back for known future expenses.
    You also do not have to deal with amortization issues with premium bonds, and can deduct capital losses like any other ETF.
    If current income is the goal, there is a slight advantage to OEFs, but you should ignore the current market price.
  • M* -- Bond Investors Facing Worst Losses in Years
    3 Ways to Get Better Yields than Bonds via Barrons… https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/bonds-yields-51648235275
    I Savings Bonds? I mean… it’s only 10K. Please…
    “ Multi-Year Guaranteed Annuities.These are the equivalents of bank certificates of deposits, except that they’re sold by insurers. As of Friday morning, you could get a a 5-year MYGA from an A-rated insurer yielding as much as 3.15%”
    “ Interval Funds. For those willing to own riskier assets, consider interval funds that invest in credit instruments. Many are paying 7% to 10% yields—equity-like returns with less volatility than stocks.”
    “ The $2.9 billion Pimco Flexible Credit Income Fund (PFLEX) can buy any sort of debt, including residential loans and emerging-market debt. In terms of risk, “I would say it fits between bonds and equity,” says Christian Clayton, a Pimco executive vice president.
    The fund has averaged a 6.3% return since its inception in 2017. But that included a roughly 20% decline in March 2020 as the pandemic shriveled the economy. ”
  • M* -- Bond Investors Facing Worst Losses in Years
    A part of me struggling to understand the handwringing for buy-and-hold investors.
    If you have a say 50/50 allocation between stocks and bonds, why would you not just rebalance? Take-advantage of the cheapness?
    I get it with trend-following or trading strategies, which I like, but don't long-term investors need to accept that some years will be worse than others, no matter what the asset class?
    I saw DODIX mentioned.
    Let's say by end of year, it's -9%. About its worst MAXDD. Don't two +9's get remembered, as in 2019 and 2020?
    Here are calendar year returns going back to 1990:
    Year Count: 32
    Worst Year: -2.9
    Best Year: 20.2
    Average Year: 6.4
    Sigma Year: 5.5
    YTD (thru 3/24): -5.6
    2021: -0.9
    2020: 9.4
    2019: 9.7
    2018: -0.3
    2017: 4.4
    2016: 5.6
    2015: -0.6
    2014: 5.5
    2013: 0.6
    2012: 7.9
    2011: 4.8
    2010: 7.2
    2009: 16.1
    2008: -0.3
    2007: 4.7
    2006: 5.3
    2005: 2
    2004: 3.6
    2003: 6
    2002: 10.7
    2001: 10.3
    2000: 10.7
    1999: -0.8
    1998: 8.1
    1997: 10
    1996: 3.6
    1995: 20.2
    1994: -2.9
    1993: 11.4
    1992: 7.8
    1991: 18.1
    1990: 7.4
    Granted, all during secular bond bull. But there were certainly some periods in there of rising rates, if not with concurrent inflation.
    Also, if there is sufficient liquidity, and there seems to be, why is selling a bond or TBill early bad? Can't you just pick-up another with the reduced principal but higher interest for the remainder of the planned term? Don't you end up in same place, less trading fee/bid spread?
    Now if liquidity is crashing, I get it (e.g., IOFIX in March 2020, I do remember and will never forget). Is that what the concern is for investors ... that there will not be enough liquidity with everybody running for the door in bond fund land, perhaps including the Fed?
    Excellent analysis and summary. I understand the worry with bonds but most investors are not able to trade in and out to successfully chase the best returns. The B&H path I am following.
  • M* -- Bond Investors Facing Worst Losses in Years
    For a ultra short duration with a "buy and hold" approach, SPACs purchased below trust value with the intent to always redeem on a business combination, sell above trust value, or wait until liquidation date may be worth consideration. According to SPACinformer.com around 75% of SPACs have a yield to liquidation over 3% with an weighted average maturity around 1 year. Some or all of the return may be capital gains rather than ordinary income. SPACinformer.com allows you to download the 700+ SPAC database for free to get the info needed to execute.
  • M* -- Bond Investors Facing Worst Losses in Years
    Federal funds rates do not reflect the real interest rates changes his year. Treasury yields have gone up much more in the shorter maturities than longer.
    Last three month changes
    6 mo treasury up 0.78%
    1 year 1.2%
    2 year 1.4%
    5 year 1.1%
    30 year 0.6%
    15 year mortgage rates have risen even more:1.5% and 30 year rates about 1.6%.
    DODIX has a duration of 4.7 per M* so you would expect it to drop 4.7% for every 1 % increase, or 5.2% based on treasuries or up to 7% based on mortgages.
    It is down 5.5% YTD per M*
    These changes are also in line with short duration funds like VUSFX ( duration of 0.98) which is down 1%.
    If you use bond funds for income, you are now going to get more, although it will be a while before it makes up for the drop in NAV.
    If you use bond mutual funds for portfolio balancing and diversification, it may be a difficult time, because if interest rates continue to rise, NAVs will continue to fall, and this may occur just at the same time stocks fall too, if the war gets worse or there is a recession. This is not how "bonds as ballast" is supposed to work.
    An alternative is to look at individual bonds, where ( without a default) you are guaranteed the YTW return and to get your capital back. High rated 5 to 7 year corporates are yielding 2.5 to 3%. If inflation continues to increase, you will still loose money as the coupon rate will not increase, but you will get your principal back (of course it looses some purchasing power).
    There are also fixed term ETFs where all the bonds mature about the same time and the ETF terminates at the end of a specific year. You can set up a ladder with equal amounts in each year and roll this years redemption into an ETF on the top of the ladder. This is simpler than individual bonds, provides diversification and has a low expense ratio (0.18% for BSCM the 2022 Invesco product)
    ishares and Invesco both have lots of these available for corporate munis emerging market and high yield.
    https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/bonds/601759/build-a-bond-ladder

    I heard of these ETFs but not quite sure how they work. The article says at the end of the term you get back your money plus capital gains. Does this mean you are guaranteed not to lose any principal if you hold on until the end of the ETF's term, same as if you bought an individual bond? Would this hold true if you bought in the middle of the term?
  • M* -- Bond Investors Facing Worst Losses in Years
    Federal funds rates do not reflect the real interest rates changes his year. Treasury yields have gone up much more in the shorter maturities than longer.
    Last three month changes
    6 mo treasury up 0.78%
    1 year 1.2%
    2 year 1.4%
    5 year 1.1%
    30 year 0.6%
    15 year mortgage rates have risen even more:1.5% and 30 year rates about 1.6%.
    DODIX has a duration of 4.7 per M* so you would expect it to drop 4.7% for every 1 % increase, or 5.2% based on treasuries or up to 7% based on mortgages.
    It is down 5.5% YTD per M*
    These changes are also in line with short duration funds like VUSFX ( duration of 0.98) which is down 1%.
    If you use bond funds for income, you are now going to get more, although it will be a while before it makes up for the drop in NAV.
    If you use bond mutual funds for portfolio balancing and diversification, it may be a difficult time, because if interest rates continue to rise, NAVs will continue to fall, and this may occur just at the same time stocks fall too, if the war gets worse or there is a recession. This is not how "bonds as ballast" is supposed to work.
    An alternative is to look at individual bonds, where ( without a default) you are guaranteed the YTW return and to get your capital back. High rated 5 to 7 year corporates are yielding 2.5 to 3%. If inflation continues to increase, you will still loose money as the coupon rate will not increase, but you will get your principal back (of course it looses some purchasing power).
    There are also fixed term ETFs where all the bonds mature about the same time and the ETF terminates at the end of a specific year. You can set up a ladder with equal amounts in each year and roll this years redemption into an ETF on the top of the ladder. This is simpler than individual bonds, provides diversification and has a low expense ratio (0.18% for BSCM the 2022 Invesco product)
    ishares and Invesco both have lots of these available for corporate munis emerging market and high yield.
    https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/bonds/601759/build-a-bond-ladder
  • M* -- Bond Investors Facing Worst Losses in Years
    A part of me struggling to understand the handwringing for buy-and-hold investors.
    If you have a say 50/50 allocation between stocks and bonds, why would you not just rebalance? Take-advantage of the cheapness?
    I get it with trend-following or trading strategies, which I like, but don't long-term investors need to accept that some years will be worse than others, no matter what the asset class?
    I saw DODIX mentioned.
    Let's say by end of year, it's -9%. About its worst MAXDD. Don't two +9's get remembered, as in 2019 and 2020?
    Here are calendar year returns going back to 1990:
    Year Count: 32
    Worst Year: -2.9
    Best Year: 20.2
    Average Year: 6.4
    Sigma Year: 5.5
    YTD (thru 3/24): -5.6
    2021: -0.9
    2020: 9.4
    2019: 9.7
    2018: -0.3
    2017: 4.4
    2016: 5.6
    2015: -0.6
    2014: 5.5
    2013: 0.6
    2012: 7.9
    2011: 4.8
    2010: 7.2
    2009: 16.1
    2008: -0.3
    2007: 4.7
    2006: 5.3
    2005: 2
    2004: 3.6
    2003: 6
    2002: 10.7
    2001: 10.3
    2000: 10.7
    1999: -0.8
    1998: 8.1
    1997: 10
    1996: 3.6
    1995: 20.2
    1994: -2.9
    1993: 11.4
    1992: 7.8
    1991: 18.1
    1990: 7.4
    Granted, all during secular bond bull. But there were certainly some periods in there of rising rates, if not with concurrent inflation.
    Also, if there is sufficient liquidity, and there seems to be, why is selling a bond or TBill early bad? Can't you just pick-up another with the reduced principal but higher interest for the remainder of the planned term? Don't you end up in same place, less trading fee/bid spread?
    Now if liquidity is crashing, I get it (e.g., IOFIX in March 2020, I do remember and will never forget). Is that what the concern is for investors ... that there will not be enough liquidity with everybody running for the door in bond fund land, perhaps including the Fed?
  • M* -- Bond Investors Facing Worst Losses in Years
    Citigroup just upped its forecast to include multiple hikes totaling 150 basis points in 2022, plus a few more individual hikes in 2023. Seems like the Fed is going to get a grip on inflation, even if it kills us.
    I'm somewhat happy just sitting on cash, thinking that it's a short term situation. I've added a bit to a few individual stock positions believing they may be a good spot to hide out... BMY, O, VZ, but am cautious.
    Frankly, I'm afraid of the next week or so in regards to Putin's next move in Ukraine. This reminds me of early 2020 when Covid was starting to reek havoc in Europe, and yet our stock market just ignored it and kept going higher. Until it didn't. I've asked myself several times since then why I didn't pay closer attention to what was going on, and the associated risks to our markets.
  • M* -- Bond Investors Facing Worst Losses in Years
    Stating the obvious, these are very challenging times for fixed-income investors.
    I've exchanged my largest bond position (DODIX) for a stable value fund late last year.
    My other bond funds (VUSFX, RCTIX) are short-duration funds.
    I dislike the current investment environment and believe equities are more attractive than fixed-income.
    However, I can't assume the inherent risk of a 100% equity portfolio.
    I hold my nose while capital is allocated to low-yielding funds¹ guaranteed to generate negative real returns.
    ¹ RCTIX SEC yield of 4.38% is relatively high
  • Silver
    Silver production costs will vary by silver-miners. But on average, in 2020, the cash-costs for silver production were $4.73/oz, and all-in-costs $11.17/oz. Seems very profitable business with current silver prices in $20s.
    https://www.silverinstitute.org/mine-production/