More on the Portfolio Sleeve Management System Hi Skeet- I hadn't really thought of my setup as "sleeves", but the general organization is of a similar type, with four self-defined "areas"-
1) US Equity Funds: ANCFX, ACMVX, GABAX, GASFX, BUFBX, PRBLX, VVPSX, SCHD
2) US Balanced and Allocation Funds:ABALX, TWSMX, RSIVX, MFLDX
3) World and EM Equity Funds: SMCWX, CWGIX, ANEFX, MAPIX, ARTGX, SFGIX, WAFMX, GPROX
4) US Bond Funds: ABNDX, AIBAX, AHITX, ABHIX, RPHYX, LSBRX
As you say, it makes it easy to adjust balances within areas by adjusting various fund levels. The four areas are currently 20%, 20%, 31% and 29%, respectively. A series of graphs and charts in my spreadsheet give a good picture of the performance of each fund individually, as well as overviews of the total allocations as: US stocks, foreign stocks, US Bonds, foreign bonds, convertible, preferred, cash & "other".
BTW, am thinking about adding TOLLX.
Regards- OJ
Let's Iron out some things Hey guys! Managed to find Internet on the beach. My brother who thinks his lil brother lost it a long time back, never invests in mutual funds. However thanks to this board and after I recommended RPHYX and RSIVX - the only funds he owns besides bunch of Vanguard in his 401k - he still introduces me to others as his brother. Sorry digressing...
When we discussed conservative (ahem) ways to get some yield, he says to look at PFF and the new VRP. Then he showed me how some preferred stocks have provided him good income over the past few years and especially after the financial crisis. Anyways, just some food for thought. I am going to research some preferred stock funds after I get back. Seems like a compelling diversifying opportunity to me
Wish my first generation IPad had a camera so I could post a picture of my first real vacation in years. I have already had enought beers in the name of each one of you.
Fidelity Short Duration High Income - FSAHX Can we hope FSAHX is in the mould of RPHYX or RSIVX? Would love to hear knowledgeable people comment. Always good to know of lowest risk alternatives to MM funds given current interest rate environment. Good to know options for spreading manager risk for such holdings.
If anyone has any insight it will be much appreciated.
A shortage of junk munis and a warning sign from junk corporates http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-15/invesco-closing-high-yield-muni-fund-as-supply-dries-up.htmlA friend sent me the above link the other night. Very telling. As for junk corporates, they seem to have gone flat to down during the current push of stocks to new highs. Every pundit and their mother has been calling for a top in junk and being pundits are invariably wrong, not sure if this is the sign of the inevitable top or not. I've been scrambling back into NHMRX in junk munis as well as two bank loan funds - HFRZX (an old fave from last year) and the more sedate LSFYX. Hold some DLENX which has been a steady eddie. Thought I would try something in
RSIVX but the feeling passed and sold a starter postion there to free up funds for better areas in bondland. If and when junk corporates do top, there will be no place to hide including
RSIVX and OSTIX.
Open Thread: What Are You Buying/Selling/Pondering I hate these threads but then always seem to bite. Down to 20% from 100% in NHMRX. Have some smallish positions looking to increase if price cooperates in DLENX (should have been much heavier there by now) BEXFX, and DODWX - albeit the latter two are on a very short leash. And have a groupthink fund (that is not meant in a pejorative manner) RSIVX.
The Risk OF Short Term Bond Funds I'm still more in the Intermediate slot with funds such as PIMIX, EVBAX, DODIX, MWTRX, BSBIX, THOPX, BHYAX, RSIVX and SXFIX. Very good returns thus far. I recently added FPNIX just to tamp down any interest rate volatility should it come in the next year or so.
SUBFX Everyone, many thanks for the wise words.
@heezsafe, you have steadied my wavering resolve. Yes, perhaps the glorious past returns wowed me and I hoped to get those, soon, but my rational reasons for buying it were not a dividend stream (I don't need that) but the opportunistic approach plus the visceral dislike for losing money. I think your approach is wise and I intend to imitate it: since I'm low on cash, I won't add more for now, but if the 10y tsy indeed goes to 2.25%, I'll add to SUBFX.
@rjb112, I have looked at FPNIX, and it seems like a fund that successfully delivers what it promises, but my hope with SUBFX is that it will not lose money even when the market moves against it, but that when it gets it right, it will have a higher upside than FPNIX. So far, as heezsafe pointed out, it has at least fulfilled the first half of its promise.
@STB65 If I understand
RSIVX right, the manager does expect to be made whole at maturity, but since he goes as far out as 5 years, he may be down in a given year. I think it's a great fund, I've got a toehold in it, but since I want to be able to tap my bond funds for fresh cash in case of a stock market dip,
RSIVX is probably not as good for me as SUBFX or FPNIX.
SUBFX @heezsafe: I must have missed something in the
RSIVX info. I didn't think they were buying bonds above par. If so, there is obvious risk. OTOH, if they are buying at par or below, I assume they will be made whole at maturity, so one only needs to maintain stable positions to avoid losses.
@rjb112: FRNIX may underperform its benchmarks, but the slope is positive consistently in M*. Looks like you're correct about the fund not losing money. May not make too much, tho.
@expatsp: One might not lose money in bond funds by buying individual bonds or buying a defined maturity bond fund selling at par or less, but I don't see how one avoids risk otherwise. I have a rounding error amount in SUBFX, and agree that it has done so poorly that I haven't added to it, but the comments above describe the risks with the fund. I wouldn't remove all the invested money.
SUBFX @Ted He who hunts with the same dogs, and the same strategy, day after day, year after year, who becomes oblivious to changes in terrain and flora (and, more significantly, to changes in fauna), may one day be on safari and find he is no longer the hunter, but the prey. Good luck, Big Dog--- you know what they used to feed to the lions in the zoos, dontcha?
@expats I too entered into SUBFX last yr, in January, with a smallish sum, and have been feeding it as it moves around. To steady your wavering resolve, it might be helpful to revisit why you invested in this fund in the first place (do you remember?). Has it been managed as promised? Did you invest in it because it had an opportunistic approach + a visceral dislike for losing principle, or did you invest in it as an aggressive momentum play, that didn't play (it didn't promise the latter)? At some point, I'll stop feeding it and wait for it to pop again before feeding it further; or, if the 10y T goes to 2-2.25%, it's a buying op with its Treasury short. Otherwise, remember it is a
total return bond fund, with few constrains on what it can/cannot hold, and what it can/cannot do to achieve this objective. It is
not an
income fund, they never promised us a dvd stream. Also, remember what it did last yr relative to others; it did o.k. So where's the beef?
p.s. re.
RSIVX: if the stock market corrects in a major way, you are not under the impression that Sherman's HY bonds will not decline as well, simply because they are of shorter duration, are you?
SUBFX Last March, I put a chunk of change into SUBFX. It's my largest bond fund (my other two are RSIVX and MAINX.) It's been disappointing, pretty much even, about 3% below its category average and about 4% below its benchmark according to M* since I bought it.
That said, 15 months is a very short time on which to judge a fund, especially once whose past (before I bought it, alas) is so glorious. Its managers say they are not finding good values in the current market so are keeping a lot of cash and at least at times have been shorting Treasuries -- a bad bet, as it turns out.
Should I give up on this fund, swap into RSIVX, which has been slow and steady, just as promised, or into ARTFX, a new small fund with a great experienced manager? Or should I sit tight and be pleased that even though SUBFX's big bet -- that rates would rise -- has been wrong, it's still managed to stay pretty much even? It is bad that they got this bet wrong so far, but good that their risk controls have kept them from suffering too much for it.
A note: I don't keep a lot of cash in my portfolio, so I really want my bond funds to do well in a crash -- I don't want too much correlation with stocks.
RSIVX vs ICMUX (short term high yield) Well, RPHYX is probably a bit safer, but I have both RPHYX and RSIVX, and am comfortable with both. Stash a little here, a little there...
RSIVX vs ICMUX (short term high yield) I'll give you about the wish-washiest opinion that you'll ever hear. I think they're both pretty darn safe. ICMUX has been paying a yield around 2.7% so far this year and RSIVX has been paying a yield of approximately 4.3%. My guess is that this means that ICMUX is a bit safer, but they both hold large cash positions (ICMUX's is considerably larger) and that should mean that they can both hold tight if rates rise, let their bonds mature and thus suffer no capital losses. Plenty of forced selling from redemptions can be done by running down the cash.
That leaves the possibility of defaults. Combining competent managers (and I see no reason to believe that either of these companies is less than competent in assessing the viability of companies) plus the relatively short-term nature of their holdings, I'd feel comfortable with either fund. There is no absolute safety in this world, but ICMUX and RSIVX are probably about as close to it as investments are going to get.
RSIVX vs ICMUX (short term high yield) Am looking at making some adjustments in my bond fund holdings within
my 401K and I'm considering either RSIVX or ICMUX. My basic concerns:
-There are lots of "noise" about being careful/staying away from high yield bond
funds now (but these seem to be short term high yield and conservative)
-RSIVX seems to have a consistent value and good yield ... now. I just
wonder if it can handle when things get dicey when the rates go up.
On the other hand, ICMUX has been around since the crisis in 2008
and I like the commentary on their site about the focus on "not loosing
money" and staying in cash if there are no good opportunities.
Any thoughts/helpful advice?
(P.S. My other bond fund holdings are OSTIX, MWTRX, and PLDDX)
IC
The Closing Bell: U.S. Stocks Extend Losses A mixed bag...
ABNDX 12.75 +0.03 (0.24%)
AIBAX 13.55 +0.02 (0.15%)
MAPIX 16.18 +0.06 (0.37%)
LSBRX 15.75 +0.01 (0.09%)
SFGIX 11.80 +0.01 (0.08%)
AHITX 11.60 0.00 (0.00%)
RSIVX 10.42 0.00 (0.00%)
RPHYX 10.01 0.00 (0.00%)
WAFMX 3.27 0.00 (0.00%)
ABALX 25.33 -0.11 (-0.43%)
ANCFX 53.60 -0.25 (-0.46%)
SMCWX 50.58 -0.34 (-0.67%)
CWGIX 47.34 -0.19 (-0.40%)
ANEFX 39.41 -0.18 (-0.45%)
ACMVX 17.12 -0.09 (-0.52%)
TWSMX 7.51 -0.02 (-0.27%)
ABHIX 6.28 -0.01 (-0.16%)
BUFBX 14.94 -0.05 (-0.33%)
PRBLX 39.12 -0.22 (-0.56%)
VVPSX 19.33 -0.15 (-0.77%)
GABAX 68.11 -0.46 (-0.67%)
MFLDX 17.93 -0.01 (-0.06%)
GASFX 30.61 -0.05 (-0.16%)
ARTGX 16.21 -0.01 (-0.06%)
GPROX 12.85 -0.04 (-0.31%)
SCHD 38.30 -0.23 (-0.60%)
The Closing Bell: U.S. Stocks Extend Losses Yes, lousy day.
And on good economic news.
Started out good, but went south in hurry.
Go figure.
As usual, one bad day knocks out the gains of several good days.
Only HCP was up in portfolio. And, SIGIX and RSIVX even.
Red all else.
RSIVX - Yield? For comparison, here's what David Sherman calculated after the October '13 dividend, when RSIVX was brand-spanking new.
Current yield: 8.43%
Approximate expected gross investment yield: 7.12%
Approximate duration: 3.12 yr.
Avg market price: 103.61
Currency exposure: 94.5% U.S. $, 4.5% Canadian $
Estimated liquidity (scale = 1-10; 10 = most liquid): 7.42
Estimated average credit quality: BB*
As I recall, the "approximate expected gross investment yield" of 7.12% was an average of YTW and YTM, so it should be comparable to the current "approximation" (provided in this thread) of 5.9%. That tells us where the portfolio has moved over the past months ... shorter maturity (as in David's report) and lower yield.
Also, that's expected yield "gross of expenses," so the E.R. has to come out to show the yield we'll receive -- so, roughly, 4.7% retail, 4.9% inst'l.
Good news is that there's not much difference between "expected" dividend yield and SEC yield, which probably indicates that the bonds in the portfolio aren't that high-priced, as is the case with so many other bond funds now.