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When Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine, he dreamed of restoring the glory of the Russian empire. He has ended up restoring the terror of Josef Stalin. That is not only because he has unleashed the most violent act of unprovoked aggression in Europe since 1939, but also because, as a result, he is turning himself into a dictator at home.
Consider how the war was planned. Russia’s president thought Ukraine would rapidly collapse, so he did not prepare his people for the invasion or his soldiers for their mission. After two terrible weeks on the battlefield, he is still denying that he is waging what may become Europe’s biggest war since 1945. He has shut down almost the entire independent media, threatened journalists with up to 15 years in jail if they do not parrot official falsehoods, and had anti-war protesters arrested in their thousands.
And to gauge Mr Putin’s paranoia, imagine how the war ends. Russia has more firepower than Ukraine. It is still making progress, especially in the south. It may yet capture the capital, Kyiv. And yet, even if the war drags on for months, it is hard to see Mr Putin as the victor.
Suppose that Russia manages to impose a new government. Ukrainians are now united against the invader. Mr Putin’s puppet could not rule without an occupation, but Russia does not have the money or the troops to garrison even half of Ukraine. American army doctrine says that to face down an insurgency—in this case, one backed by NATO—occupiers need 20 to 25 soldiers per 1,000 people; Russia has a little over four.
The truth is sinking in that, by attacking Ukraine, Mr Putin has committed a catastrophic error. He has wrecked the reputation of Russia’s supposedly formidable armed forces, which have proved tactically inept against a smaller, worse-armed but motivated opponent. Russia has lost mountains of equipment and endured thousands of casualties, almost as many in two weeks as America has suffered in Iraq since it invaded in 2003.
And, as Stalin did, Mr Putin is destroying the bourgeoisie, the great motor of Russia’s modernisation. Instead of being sent to the gulag, they are fleeing to cities like Istanbul, in Turkey, and Yerevan, in Armenia. Those who choose to stay are being muzzled by restrictions on free speech and free association. They will be battered by high inflation and economic dislocation. In just two weeks, they have lost their country.
Hmmm … Not to make too fine a point of it, but the S&P lost less than 1% in 2015. It was preceded in 2014 by an 11% gain and followed in 2016 by a 9.5% gain. There may have been a bear market in there somewhere, but I don’t remember it.Those of you with good memory, could please share how (Fed, fiscal, turn in business cycle, or simple exhaustion) we snapped out of the 2015/2016 correction / bear market?
https://gothamist.com/news/new-york-is-no-longer-a-donor-state-at-least-for-nowFor the 2020 federal fiscal year, all 50 states came out ahead. That included New York, which got a return of $1.59 for every tax dollar sent to Washington, a dramatic increase from the 91 cents it received in 2019...
Every state – and particularly hard-hit New York – received large sums of COVID-era relief at the height of the pandemic, buoyed by programs like the Payroll Protection Program for businesses and nonprofits. States also received a boost in unemployment benefits for out-of-work Americans. The extra federal funds contributed to a projected $5 billion surplus in New York’s budget this year.
It was a period that saw Congress and then-President Donald J. Trump pass the CARES Act, a $2.2 trillion package that authorized $1,200 direct stimulus payments to most Americans. ...
While New York netted $7,236 per resident on a per-capita basis, 39 states fared better. New Mexico ranked best at $16,999; New Jersey ranked last at $4,454.
... While various COVID relief programs have continued into 2021 and 2022 – helping bolster the state government’s financial footing – they will ultimately run out and return New York to its status as a “donor state.”
getting-the-most-bang-for-your-buck-roth-conversion-during-a-market-pullback/According to a March 2020 report from Fidelity Investments, in the year after the “trough” of a bear market, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 47%. That is in comparison to the little over 8% per year on average that the S&P 500 has returned over the last 20 years*. To go back to my example of a $50k conversion, let’s assume you did that when the market was at the low on March 23rd of this year. The S&P 500 is up 44.54%* from March 23rd through yesterday, July 28th, so that $50k grew to just over $72k in about 4 months, $22k of tax-free growth.
2020_was_the_Perfect_Year_for_a_Roth_ConversionA Roth conversion may not always be in a
taxpayer’s best long-term economic interests if:
• The current tax cost of the conversion is prohibitively high. A Roth conversion, in
its simplest sense, is a trade-off between paying taxes now vs. paying taxes later.
For the strategy to be impactful, the current tax cost of the conversion should not
be so expensive that it outweighs the benefit of any expected future tax-free
investment growth.
• The taxpayer is making regular and material withdrawals from their pre-tax IRA.
• The taxpayer does not have the cash to pay the tax due on conversion.
Tip:
We recommend converting shares of investment positions rather than selling investments in
the IRA and then converting cash proceeds. This ensures that the taxpayer continues to have
market exposure during the conversion process, and also saves on the transaction fees that
may be levied when selling an investment position.
perspectives/anatomy-of-a-recessionThe Anatomy of a Recession (AOR) program is designed to help you stay on top of the business cycle and provide thoughtful insights through our exclusive risk and recovery dashboards. Updated monthly, AOR offers a concise, practical look at what the key indicators are saying about the United States economy and the potential impact on the equity markets. The data suggests that the economy exited the COVID-19 recession around mid-year 2020. As we move into 2021, investor focus has shifted to the possibility of a double dip recession which is why ClearBridge has re-introduced the Recession Risk dashboard. Click on each tab for a different view of the dashboard data.
Name Ticker %TR YTD %TR 5 Year %TR 10 Year
William Blair Large Cap Growth I LCGFX -21.08 19.62 16.55
Akre Focus Retail AKREX -18.4 16.49 15.23
Jensen Quality Growth J JENSX -12.88 15.57 14.59
Parnassus Core Equity Investor PRBLX -11.95 14.79 14.42
Vanguard 500 Index Investor VFINX -11.65 14.05 14.08
Vanguard Health Care Inv VGHCX -9.13 9.59 13.84
Conestoga Small Cap Investors CCASX -18.81 14.2 13.59
Grandeur Peak Global Opp Inv GPGOX -22.38 13.17 12.94
Mairs & Power Small Cap MSCFX -10.37 7.86 12.41
T. Rowe Price Capital App PRWCX -7.79 12.25 12.16
T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Value TRMCX -1.1 9.49 12.06
Wedgewood Retail RWGFX -19.05 14.82 12.04
Artisan Small Cap Investor ARTSX -26.13 12.73 11.89
AMG Yacktman Focused N YAFFX -5.99 12.17 11.59
AMG Yacktman I YACKX -5.55 12 11.54
Manning & Napier Disc Value I MNDFX -5.1 10.6 11.42
Meridian Growth Legacy MERDX -15.53 11.6 11.3
T. Rowe Price Small-Cap Value PRSVX -11.01 9.61 11.11
Amana Income Investor AMANX -11.49 10.97 11.03
Walthausen Small Cap Value WSCVX -7.27 7.06 10.32
Osterweis OSTFX -13.03 11.42 10.31
Fidelity Advisor® Small Cap I FSCIX -16.18 9.97 10.07
FPA Queens Road Small Cap Value QRSVX -6.81 9.64 9.68
Fairholme FAIRX 4.21 10.44 9.44
Vanguard Balanced Index Inv VBINX -9.02 9.39 9.24
Auxier Focus Inv AUXFX -5.04 9.24 9.23
Janus Henderson Small Cap Val T JSCVX -7.67 5.1 8.66
Oakmark Equity And Income Inv OAKBX -6.33 8.2 8.46
Artisan International Value Inv ARTKX -10.86 6.98 8.35
DCM/INNOVA High Eq Inc Innovt TILDX -12.74 7.52 7.98
FPA Crescent FPACX -8.32 6.96 7.96
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