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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Nasty day for the inflation hedges …
    I should clarify that my reassessment of inflation assets was triggered largely by global events. Six months ago I thought a lot of industrial metals, agriculture, and especially energy assets were quite overvalued. That was before Russia invaded Ukraine and set in motion a wide range of unanticipated actions / events. The termination of the Nordstrom 2 pipeline project that would have supplied parts of Europe with cheaper natural gas was one. The efforts by NATO states to lessen dependence on Russian oil is another. Than there are the issues with grain production …
    Doesn’t appear to me that this is a temporary phenomenon. So net-net I raised my allocation to real assets from around 8% to 9%. Not a huge change. I accomplished this with the addition of ENOR which tracks an equity index in Norway - a nation rich in energy and minerals that should benefit from the above mentioned global situation. It is weighted about 20% energy and 10% other materials. As I said earlier, domestic petroleum producers and drillers look too expensive for my taste. As a cautionary note: This is a highly volatile fund that fell about 40% in the first quarter of 2020. You may recall, however, that around than oil fell below 0 on the futures markets.
    Real assets look a bit weak again today. Some froth being boiled off. RIO is off 1%. But the stock has been good to me since buying. Gold’s off a small amount and the p/c miners recently turned positive. I’ve always felt that in a well balanced portfolio you should have assets moving in both directions. It’s the days where 100% of my holdings move up in sync or down in sync that worry me.
  • M* -- Bond Investors Facing Worst Losses in Years
    The dreaded Inverted Yield Curve. Lead indicator of a potential recession.
    This is often the case.
    However, the Fed purchased more than $4T in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) since March 2020. The 10 Yr. Treasury yield has been distorted and artificially surpressed.
  • Question - If you close out a fund paying quarterly interest few days before end of quarter?
    Mona: "But assume that the OEF bond fund accrues and pays monthly. You seem clear that if sold mid-month that you don't any of the interest for that month. Where does the interest go?"
    Hey @Mona, it was in the NAV until the ex-date, and if you sold early, you got at least some of it - but in the form of a capital gain.
  • Question - If you close out a fund paying quarterly interest few days before end of quarter?
    If it helps any, the fund I just sold today at Fido is RPGAX
    Actually it confuses matters, as the subject asks about funds paying quarterly divs, and RPGAX pays divs annually.
    https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/tools/fund-research/RPGAX?WTAFeaturedResult=RPGAX#content-prices-distributions
    For any particular fund, just RTFM.
    From the fine manual (prospectus) for RPGAX:
    Any dividends or capital gains are declared and paid annually, usually in December.
    But assume that the OEF bond fund accrues and pays monthly. You seem clear that if sold mid-month that you don't any of the interest for that month. Where does the interest go?
    An example of such a fund is LSBDX. From its prospectus: "Generally each fund declares and pays dividends monthly."
    This is no different from a fund that pays quarterly or annually or on any other schedule. When a fund gets cash from equity dividends or bond interest payments, that cash becomes part of the underlying portfolio. Its value is reflected in the NAV of the fund shares, unless the fund declares (accrues) daily divs.
    The manager may choose to invest the cash, one hopes so. But it doesn't matter in terms of benefiting from stock divs and bond interest in the fund's portfolio.
  • Question - If you close out a fund paying quarterly interest few days before end of quarter?
    It is tricky but there is a system to it.
    Most bond funds accrue dividends daily but pay them monthly. If one sells mid-month, then one gets proportional dividends. NAV is not impacted by distribution.
    Some bond funds and most equity/hybrid funds that pay quarterly/ semiannually/ annually flow dividends through the NAVs. Then, on the ex-div date, price drops by the dividend amount. Only the owners on the record-date get the dividends. In particular; those who buy on/after the ex-div date, and those who sell too early, don't get dividends. There is no proportional treatment. That may seem unfair, but that is the system.
    Tax liability has similar consideration. So the general advice about not buying just before big distributions

    If total distribution (income + cap gains) is done by the “donut” method, than I haven’t adversely impacted net proceeds / end amount. Sounds fair enough. ISTM TRP has always paid income out for RPGAX thru the more conventional method, however quarterly. I may be mistaken
    Appreciate all the thoughts.
  • Barron’s Ranking of Brokerages (March 28 edition)
    Actually a pretty intelligent discussion under the title “Training Investors to Be More Rational”
    (Provided FYI)
    1. Interactive Brokers
    2. Fidelity
    3. E*Trade
    3. Charles Schwab (apparently a tie for #3)
    5. TD Ameritrade
    6. Merrill Edge
    7. tastyworks
    8.Webull
    9. Ally Invest
    10. Robinhood
    10. J.P. Morgan Self-Directing Investing (apparently another tie)
    11. SoFi Invest
    Sorry - I’m not sure what specific criteria were used. For Fidelity they praise its many online features which include tracking of gains and losses as well as some educational tools directed at newer younger investors.
    Coincidentally, the magazine includes a fitting tribute to Ned Johnson as did the WSJ a few days ago.
  • M* -- Bond Investors Facing Worst Losses in Years
    If you want laddering, DRSK maintains 90-95% in an investment grade corporate bond ladder and invests the remainder in equity call options. Up 7% annual since inception in August 2018. Held up extremely well during the 1st quarter 2020. I own only a small bit which is part of a 9-10% hedge position against unexpected (expected :)) declines in equities. / ER .60%
    Not a replacement for a pure fixed income fund. Just tossing it out for consideration.
  • M* -- Bond Investors Facing Worst Losses in Years
    @Charles
    More info on ETF bond ladders here
    https://www.invesco.com/us/en/insights/how-to-build-a-bond-ladder.html
    https://www.ishares.com/us/resources/tools/ibonds
    Detailed analysis of redemptions and returns of ishares ibonds going back to 2012
    https://www.ishares.com/us/literature/investor-education/ibonds-series-case-study-en-us.pdf
    pdf shows all of ibond MUNIS redeemed at or above starting NAV. Two of ibond corporates redeemed at a loss from initial NAV but only 1.5% or so. I can't find any data for the Bullet shares on redemption NAV
    Ibonds are far more diversified with thousands of individual bonds, vs hundreds in Bullet shares.
    I ran a comparison of a five year Muni ibond ladder with VMLUX.
    Duration is 2.49 vs 2.3 for VMLUX SEC 30 day yield is 1.22 vs 1.23.
    To compare with VWIUX ( Dur 4.3) need to use Bullet shares for 7 year ladder ( ibonds only go to 2028 now)
    Bullet dur 4.08 SEC 30 day yield 1.59%
    Bullet 8 year ladder Dur 5.37 yield 1.77
    VWIUX dur 4.9 SEC yield 1.77
    These are equal amounts in each ladder. You could tweak it to adjust duration if you wanted.
    With ETFs, like an individual bond, you know when and what $ you will get back for known future expenses.
    You also do not have to deal with amortization issues with premium bonds, and can deduct capital losses like any other ETF.
    If current income is the goal, there is a slight advantage to OEFs, but you should ignore the current market price.
  • M* -- Bond Investors Facing Worst Losses in Years
    3 Ways to Get Better Yields than Bonds via Barrons… https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/bonds-yields-51648235275
    I Savings Bonds? I mean… it’s only 10K. Please…
    “ Multi-Year Guaranteed Annuities.These are the equivalents of bank certificates of deposits, except that they’re sold by insurers. As of Friday morning, you could get a a 5-year MYGA from an A-rated insurer yielding as much as 3.15%”
    “ Interval Funds. For those willing to own riskier assets, consider interval funds that invest in credit instruments. Many are paying 7% to 10% yields—equity-like returns with less volatility than stocks.”
    “ The $2.9 billion Pimco Flexible Credit Income Fund (PFLEX) can buy any sort of debt, including residential loans and emerging-market debt. In terms of risk, “I would say it fits between bonds and equity,” says Christian Clayton, a Pimco executive vice president.
    The fund has averaged a 6.3% return since its inception in 2017. But that included a roughly 20% decline in March 2020 as the pandemic shriveled the economy. ”
  • M* -- Bond Investors Facing Worst Losses in Years
    A part of me struggling to understand the handwringing for buy-and-hold investors.
    If you have a say 50/50 allocation between stocks and bonds, why would you not just rebalance? Take-advantage of the cheapness?
    I get it with trend-following or trading strategies, which I like, but don't long-term investors need to accept that some years will be worse than others, no matter what the asset class?
    I saw DODIX mentioned.
    Let's say by end of year, it's -9%. About its worst MAXDD. Don't two +9's get remembered, as in 2019 and 2020?
    Here are calendar year returns going back to 1990:
    Year Count: 32
    Worst Year: -2.9
    Best Year: 20.2
    Average Year: 6.4
    Sigma Year: 5.5
    YTD (thru 3/24): -5.6
    2021: -0.9
    2020: 9.4
    2019: 9.7
    2018: -0.3
    2017: 4.4
    2016: 5.6
    2015: -0.6
    2014: 5.5
    2013: 0.6
    2012: 7.9
    2011: 4.8
    2010: 7.2
    2009: 16.1
    2008: -0.3
    2007: 4.7
    2006: 5.3
    2005: 2
    2004: 3.6
    2003: 6
    2002: 10.7
    2001: 10.3
    2000: 10.7
    1999: -0.8
    1998: 8.1
    1997: 10
    1996: 3.6
    1995: 20.2
    1994: -2.9
    1993: 11.4
    1992: 7.8
    1991: 18.1
    1990: 7.4
    Granted, all during secular bond bull. But there were certainly some periods in there of rising rates, if not with concurrent inflation.
    Also, if there is sufficient liquidity, and there seems to be, why is selling a bond or TBill early bad? Can't you just pick-up another with the reduced principal but higher interest for the remainder of the planned term? Don't you end up in same place, less trading fee/bid spread?
    Now if liquidity is crashing, I get it (e.g., IOFIX in March 2020, I do remember and will never forget). Is that what the concern is for investors ... that there will not be enough liquidity with everybody running for the door in bond fund land, perhaps including the Fed?
    Excellent analysis and summary. I understand the worry with bonds but most investors are not able to trade in and out to successfully chase the best returns. The B&H path I am following.
  • M* -- Bond Investors Facing Worst Losses in Years
    For a ultra short duration with a "buy and hold" approach, SPACs purchased below trust value with the intent to always redeem on a business combination, sell above trust value, or wait until liquidation date may be worth consideration. According to SPACinformer.com around 75% of SPACs have a yield to liquidation over 3% with an weighted average maturity around 1 year. Some or all of the return may be capital gains rather than ordinary income. SPACinformer.com allows you to download the 700+ SPAC database for free to get the info needed to execute.
  • M* -- Bond Investors Facing Worst Losses in Years
    Federal funds rates do not reflect the real interest rates changes his year. Treasury yields have gone up much more in the shorter maturities than longer.
    Last three month changes
    6 mo treasury up 0.78%
    1 year 1.2%
    2 year 1.4%
    5 year 1.1%
    30 year 0.6%
    15 year mortgage rates have risen even more:1.5% and 30 year rates about 1.6%.
    DODIX has a duration of 4.7 per M* so you would expect it to drop 4.7% for every 1 % increase, or 5.2% based on treasuries or up to 7% based on mortgages.
    It is down 5.5% YTD per M*
    These changes are also in line with short duration funds like VUSFX ( duration of 0.98) which is down 1%.
    If you use bond funds for income, you are now going to get more, although it will be a while before it makes up for the drop in NAV.
    If you use bond mutual funds for portfolio balancing and diversification, it may be a difficult time, because if interest rates continue to rise, NAVs will continue to fall, and this may occur just at the same time stocks fall too, if the war gets worse or there is a recession. This is not how "bonds as ballast" is supposed to work.
    An alternative is to look at individual bonds, where ( without a default) you are guaranteed the YTW return and to get your capital back. High rated 5 to 7 year corporates are yielding 2.5 to 3%. If inflation continues to increase, you will still loose money as the coupon rate will not increase, but you will get your principal back (of course it looses some purchasing power).
    There are also fixed term ETFs where all the bonds mature about the same time and the ETF terminates at the end of a specific year. You can set up a ladder with equal amounts in each year and roll this years redemption into an ETF on the top of the ladder. This is simpler than individual bonds, provides diversification and has a low expense ratio (0.18% for BSCM the 2022 Invesco product)
    ishares and Invesco both have lots of these available for corporate munis emerging market and high yield.
    https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/bonds/601759/build-a-bond-ladder

    I heard of these ETFs but not quite sure how they work. The article says at the end of the term you get back your money plus capital gains. Does this mean you are guaranteed not to lose any principal if you hold on until the end of the ETF's term, same as if you bought an individual bond? Would this hold true if you bought in the middle of the term?
  • M* -- Bond Investors Facing Worst Losses in Years
    Federal funds rates do not reflect the real interest rates changes his year. Treasury yields have gone up much more in the shorter maturities than longer.
    Last three month changes
    6 mo treasury up 0.78%
    1 year 1.2%
    2 year 1.4%
    5 year 1.1%
    30 year 0.6%
    15 year mortgage rates have risen even more:1.5% and 30 year rates about 1.6%.
    DODIX has a duration of 4.7 per M* so you would expect it to drop 4.7% for every 1 % increase, or 5.2% based on treasuries or up to 7% based on mortgages.
    It is down 5.5% YTD per M*
    These changes are also in line with short duration funds like VUSFX ( duration of 0.98) which is down 1%.
    If you use bond funds for income, you are now going to get more, although it will be a while before it makes up for the drop in NAV.
    If you use bond mutual funds for portfolio balancing and diversification, it may be a difficult time, because if interest rates continue to rise, NAVs will continue to fall, and this may occur just at the same time stocks fall too, if the war gets worse or there is a recession. This is not how "bonds as ballast" is supposed to work.
    An alternative is to look at individual bonds, where ( without a default) you are guaranteed the YTW return and to get your capital back. High rated 5 to 7 year corporates are yielding 2.5 to 3%. If inflation continues to increase, you will still loose money as the coupon rate will not increase, but you will get your principal back (of course it looses some purchasing power).
    There are also fixed term ETFs where all the bonds mature about the same time and the ETF terminates at the end of a specific year. You can set up a ladder with equal amounts in each year and roll this years redemption into an ETF on the top of the ladder. This is simpler than individual bonds, provides diversification and has a low expense ratio (0.18% for BSCM the 2022 Invesco product)
    ishares and Invesco both have lots of these available for corporate munis emerging market and high yield.
    https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/bonds/601759/build-a-bond-ladder
  • M* -- Bond Investors Facing Worst Losses in Years
    A part of me struggling to understand the handwringing for buy-and-hold investors.
    If you have a say 50/50 allocation between stocks and bonds, why would you not just rebalance? Take-advantage of the cheapness?
    I get it with trend-following or trading strategies, which I like, but don't long-term investors need to accept that some years will be worse than others, no matter what the asset class?
    I saw DODIX mentioned.
    Let's say by end of year, it's -9%. About its worst MAXDD. Don't two +9's get remembered, as in 2019 and 2020?
    Here are calendar year returns going back to 1990:
    Year Count: 32
    Worst Year: -2.9
    Best Year: 20.2
    Average Year: 6.4
    Sigma Year: 5.5
    YTD (thru 3/24): -5.6
    2021: -0.9
    2020: 9.4
    2019: 9.7
    2018: -0.3
    2017: 4.4
    2016: 5.6
    2015: -0.6
    2014: 5.5
    2013: 0.6
    2012: 7.9
    2011: 4.8
    2010: 7.2
    2009: 16.1
    2008: -0.3
    2007: 4.7
    2006: 5.3
    2005: 2
    2004: 3.6
    2003: 6
    2002: 10.7
    2001: 10.3
    2000: 10.7
    1999: -0.8
    1998: 8.1
    1997: 10
    1996: 3.6
    1995: 20.2
    1994: -2.9
    1993: 11.4
    1992: 7.8
    1991: 18.1
    1990: 7.4
    Granted, all during secular bond bull. But there were certainly some periods in there of rising rates, if not with concurrent inflation.
    Also, if there is sufficient liquidity, and there seems to be, why is selling a bond or TBill early bad? Can't you just pick-up another with the reduced principal but higher interest for the remainder of the planned term? Don't you end up in same place, less trading fee/bid spread?
    Now if liquidity is crashing, I get it (e.g., IOFIX in March 2020, I do remember and will never forget). Is that what the concern is for investors ... that there will not be enough liquidity with everybody running for the door in bond fund land, perhaps including the Fed?
  • M* -- Bond Investors Facing Worst Losses in Years
    Citigroup just upped its forecast to include multiple hikes totaling 150 basis points in 2022, plus a few more individual hikes in 2023. Seems like the Fed is going to get a grip on inflation, even if it kills us.
    I'm somewhat happy just sitting on cash, thinking that it's a short term situation. I've added a bit to a few individual stock positions believing they may be a good spot to hide out... BMY, O, VZ, but am cautious.
    Frankly, I'm afraid of the next week or so in regards to Putin's next move in Ukraine. This reminds me of early 2020 when Covid was starting to reek havoc in Europe, and yet our stock market just ignored it and kept going higher. Until it didn't. I've asked myself several times since then why I didn't pay closer attention to what was going on, and the associated risks to our markets.
  • M* -- Bond Investors Facing Worst Losses in Years
    Stating the obvious, these are very challenging times for fixed-income investors.
    I've exchanged my largest bond position (DODIX) for a stable value fund late last year.
    My other bond funds (VUSFX, RCTIX) are short-duration funds.
    I dislike the current investment environment and believe equities are more attractive than fixed-income.
    However, I can't assume the inherent risk of a 100% equity portfolio.
    I hold my nose while capital is allocated to low-yielding funds¹ guaranteed to generate negative real returns.
    ¹ RCTIX SEC yield of 4.38% is relatively high
  • Silver
    Silver production costs will vary by silver-miners. But on average, in 2020, the cash-costs for silver production were $4.73/oz, and all-in-costs $11.17/oz. Seems very profitable business with current silver prices in $20s.
    https://www.silverinstitute.org/mine-production/
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Funnyman WB. He is paying $848.02 for his newest acquisition Alleghany/Y. Why such an odd price? Well, that is $850 minus the fee for Goldman Sachs/GS that Y is paying - WB doesn't think GS found him as buyer for Y and his cash offer doesn't need any fancy footwork from GS.
    Alleghany/Y was captured in my summary then (although I didn't buy it) LINK
    "BULLISH. Insurer Alleghany (Y; no dividends but special dividends with the last one in 2020; fwd P/E 14.1 (2021), 9.7 (2022); P/B 1; like mini-BRK; businesses include P&C insurance, reinsurance and noninsurance businesses such as steel fabrication, toys, funeral products, etc; pg 15);"
  • Harbor Strategic Growth Fund is to be reorganized
    @BaluBalu, unclear but as noted by @TheShadow, it looks like a roundtrip. In 2016, Mar Vista Strategic Growth Fund became Harbor Strategic Growth Fund, and now it is back to Mar Vista Strategic Growth Fund. Strange dealings between Mar Vista and Harbor. It may be a matter of who needed whom and when? Harbor has also been in the news lately for introducing flashy funds, firing Pimco, etc. New CEO (2017- ) and new CIO (2020- ) making lots of noises/changes?
    Mar Vista Investment Partners Website https://www.harborcapital.com/subadviser/mar-vista-investment-partners
    Harbor in the news https://www.harborcapital.com/about-us/news
  • 2022’s Most & Least Federally Dependent States
    The fraud in the Covid relief is shameful, but it is misguided to assume that some billions fraudulently misappropriated in $5.1 trillion worth of two relief--2020 and 2021--packages indicate some sort of failure in policy:
    https://cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/robust-covid-relief-achieved-historic-gains-against-poverty-and
    When COVID-19 began to rapidly spread across the United States in March 2020, the economy quickly shed more than 20 million jobs. Amid intense fear and hardship, federal policymakers responded, enacting five relief bills in 2020 that provided an estimated $3.3 trillion of relief and the American Rescue Plan in 2021, which added another $1.8 trillion. This robust policy response helped make the COVID-19 recession the shortest on record and helped fuel an economic recovery that has brought the unemployment rate, which peaked at 14.8 percent in April 2020, down to 4.0 percent. One measure of annual poverty declined by the most on record in 2020, in data back to 1967, and the number of uninsured people remained stable, rather than rising as typically happens with large-scale job loss. Various data indicate that in 2021, relief measures reduced poverty, helped people access health coverage, and reduced hardships like inability to afford food or meet other basic needs.
    These positive results contrast with the Great Recession of 2007-2009, when the federal response was large compared to measures taken in other post-World War II recessions but less than one-third as large as the fiscal policy measures adopted in 2020-2021, when measured as a share of the economy. While decried by some at the time as too large, the relief measures enacted during the Great Recession were undersized and ended too soon. As a result, the economy remained weak for longer than was necessary — and families suffered avoidable hardship. Two years after the Great Recession began, unemployment was still 9.9 percent and food insecurity remained one-third above its pre-recession level. While some of that difference stems from differences in the trigger to the downturn, some is clearly due to the strength of the policy response.
    What I don't like is states and politicians claiming they don't need federal assistance and shouldn't have to pay taxes while taking loads of federal assistance.