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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • PRFRX switch to TUHYX
    old joe Perhaps you could have Schwab pull the money from JP Morgan each month. I have Fidelity and Schwab pull/push money to BOA NFCU Capital One as needed. If JP Morgan closes your checking account, perhaps have your SS and pension direct deposited in your Schwab checking account. Hopefully, First Republic can supply you a safe deposit box.
  • It May Be a Bear Market, But It’s Not a Panic. That’s Worrisome
    Some say that it was bond ^MOVE (or, the credit markets freeze) that prompted the Fed to literally move in late March 2020, not the stock VIX. But both had similar patterns. ^MOVE data are now available at Yahoo Finance.
    image
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    May 20th Episode
    The vast majority of funds in ETFs are in passive strategies, but there’s an interesting divergence occurring. One of the fastest growing segments in the ETF universe is actively managed ETFs.
    This week’s guest is involved in both actively managed mutual funds and ETFs and one of his main responsibilities is identifying best-in-class managers for both. He is Kristof Gleich, President and Chief Investment Officer of Harbor Capital Advisors.


  • It May Be a Bear Market, But It’s Not a Panic. That’s Worrisome
    All the stock market decline has done so far is to take its value back to early January 2021. But, gains since then occurred in a TINA market supercharged by pandemic stimulus support. Bond yields are now getting high enough they may begin to provide some competition to stocks for investor dollars before too long. A somewhat successful and plausible outcome to the Feds current tightening cycle would involve them tightening rapidly until the economy shows signs of slowing towards the edge of a recession. That outcome could leave inflation above the Feds target for some time if the economy and earnings display some resilience in the face of the tightening. The Fed would then continue to more slowly continue to work to rein inflation. So, we could be left living with stagflation for some time. That environment could reasonably continue to favor slow growing, dividend paying value stocks. Some of the alternative scenarios are less optimistic than this one.....This is one type of speculation that currently keeps me from increasing my stock allotment above the level it was at the start of the year. But, a capitulation event could change that.
  • It May Be a Bear Market, But It’s Not a Panic. That’s Worrisome
    The VIX is a handy metric to watch. Like the article shows, it's turned back from just below 40 a time or two during this escapade. In March 2020 (3/18/20 to be exact), it hit 85.
  • DIVO - What's in a name?
    Found it....Capital Wealth Planning
  • Doom and gloom - when will it end
    Once again, this morning shows that positive moves/bounces are not to be trusted in the current market climate....and either you stay put or use those bounces to lighten up on things and/or lock in gains.
  • Rally soon?
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-technician-who-called-the-2020-market-bottom-says-a-shocking-rally-is-in-store-11653043583?mod=home-page
    Noted technician Tom DeMark, who called the bottom in 2020 after COVID emerged, disagrees. The founder of DeMark Analytics — known for advising hedge fund managers like Paul Tudor Jones and Steven Cohen — told Fundstrat's head of technical strategy Mark Newton that key markets are on the verge of reversing
    Been nibbling very little
    Wait and see
    Prices are cheap though fyi
    He got 50% being right lol
  • Asset Allocation Funds
    anyone know of any successful funds for navigating these waters, similar to the British investment trusts, such as Ruffer Investment Company, Capital Gearing or Personal Assets?
  • because nothing bad ever happened, using hydrogen as fuel......
    From a climate change perspective only green(*) hydrogen is suitable (absent robust carbon capture) and most of what's available is not green
    https://www.statista.com/topics/7783/green-hydrogen
    The main problem with green-hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles is the low efficiency of using electricity to separate hydrogen from water then a fuel cell to make electricity again, as illlustrated in
    https://techxplore.com/news/2020-06-hydrogen-cars-wont-electric-vehicles.html
    Alternatively, for internal hydrogen combustion (which produces NOx compounds)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_internal_combustion_engine_vehicle
    https://www.cummins.com/news/2022/01/27/hydrogen-internal-combustion-engines-and-hydrogen-fuel-cells
    Or for hydrogen gas turbines
    https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/06-Goldmeer-Hydrogen Gas Turbines.pdf
    (*) Nine hydrogen "colors" are listed in
    https://www.h2bulletin.com/knowledge/hydrogen-colours-codes/
    This list lacks yellow, which is green hydrogen derived from solar electricity.
  • Bloodbath keep coming?!
    Pulling up a chart of SPY and looking at volume, you don't see the types of selling that we saw in March of 2020. I'm watching for signs of people throwing in the towel.
  • Bridgeway Blue Chip Fund to be reorganized into an ETF
    I own it in a taxable account.
    Capital gains the last two years have not bothered us. But this should make the fund more attractive to people further up the ladder.
    Will it be active? Or will they create a formal index?
  • Grandeur Peak re-opens several funds through 3rd party financial intermediaries
    No thoughts other than people are pulling out their money/gains only to reinvest it when they think the market has hit a low point.
  • Grandeur Peak re-opens several funds through 3rd party financial intermediaries
    If they are reopening now, it indicates they are having a meaningful outflow.
    They have stated the opposite per what Derf posted. Flows have been flat, even slightly net positive. Funds reopen to investors often because the managers see buying opportunities. They may be looking at reduced valuations on their favorite stocks for future gains. I'm guessing (maybe hoping) that is the case here.
  • "safe" investments
    Thanks for the question - Difficult to answer unless you want to go to cash or short term investment grade debt, and not likely to provide inflation protection.
    I’m not the one to comment on dividend paying stock funds. I do know enough to be extremely leery. Some are subject to severe ups and downs. DFND is one I watched as it soared to ever greater heights last year - and I almost bought it. Than it plunged 15-20% in a matter of weeks. I’d rather own a few dividend paying stocks than to trust a fund. I’m sure there are some good (conservative) ones. But be careful.
    Safer investments
    There’s been a lot of positive commentary here and in the press about Inflation Protected Treasuries (I-Bonds). Here’s one discussion: https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/59440/i-bond-question/p2
    Here’s one story re I-Bonds https://www.thebalance.com/i-bonds-best-safe-investment-you-can-make-2388902
    Two caveats: (1) The maximum investment (with minor exception) is $10,000. (2) The money cannot be withdrawn for at least 12 months.
    VWINX is an excellent fund. I don’t think you can go wrong with it.
    DODIX has been an excellent fund in the past. Slumped badly earlier this year along with bonds. Probably reasonably safe now - though I’d prefer to be a bit more aggressive with most of my money. I do like the bunch at D&C. They’ll stumble occasionally, but usually manage to right the ship and turn out superb longer term returns.
    Short term bond funds won’t hurt you. If short-intermediate corporate rates stabilize or fall slightly they will outperform cash by quite a bit. I don’t have a favorite. At one time PRWBX was a good one.
    Riskier investments (Mentioned in OP)
    Real estate can be extremely volatile. I’d not consider a REIT fund to be “safe” in the sense of preserving capital. That said, the ones I track appear to have come down to earth this year and so they may be a good longer term bet.
    Gold - I think a diversified portfolio should have some exposure. But it is even more volatile than real estate - easy to lose 30% in a year in a mining fund. I think for most people 3-5% + - is an appropriate allocation. I’m currently overweight on precious metals (5-7%). Just my best guess that they have a lot of room to run. I own OPGSX (mining fund), WPM (a company with significant silver exposure) and most recently GLTR (invests directly in gold, silver and other precious metals thru futures). Of the 3, I’d say GLTR is the safest - but by no means “safe.”
    Have you looked at PRPFX? I’ve long owned it. It commits about 30% to precious metals and also invests in growth stocks, bonds and other assets, It’s a better way for most people to get exposure to the metals than by investing directly in them. Down 7% this year - slightly better than VWINX.
    If you want to diversify a bit, consider: 1/3 VWINX, 1/3 PRPFX, and 1/3 PRWBX (or other investment grade short term bond fund). About as safe as you’re going to get and still keep up with inflation. This combination is down about 6% YTD. I do think their combined return for all of 2022 will look somewhat better. A lot of moving parts there. (But, for amounts of up to $10,000 I-Bonds currently represent one of the best ways to keep pace with inflation.)
  • Healthcare VGHCX, Value TBGVX
    Announcement of Jean Hynes as CEO was made in September 2020 and was to be effective in July 2021. VG Independent Advisor pulled the plug on VGHCX in December 2020. So, it was soon after the announcement but well before her start as CEO.
  • Healthcare VGHCX, Value TBGVX
    Healthcare VGHCX and value TBGVX are featured in Barron's this week. Summaries are from LINK.
    Barron's Issue (may need subscription) https://www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
    Jean HYNES, CEO (07/2021- ) of Wellington Management and Manager of VG Healthcare VGHCX (active). VGHCX has exposure in biopharma (overweight), healthcare services (overweight), medical technology (underweight as many stocks have runup). Biotech (IBB) have been hurt by speculation, IPOs, difficult clinical testing and FDA approval process, and higher interest rates; many biotech are trading below their cash levels and their further downside may be limited. Megatrends include revolution in biology (ILMN, MRNA, PFE, AZN, TMO, DHR, etc) and healthcare digitization (UNH, ANTM, etc). We may be better prepared for the next pandemic. AI will have a huge impact in future. Unfortunately, many diseases have not received much attention or investments. (Nothing about Wellington Management)
    FUNDS. Comanagers Thomas SHRAGER and Robert WYCKOFF of international value TBGVX (ER 1.37%) don’t rely on old value metrics such as book value, but on the newer EV/EBIT (more relevant for buying whole companies), etc. The current tectonic shift to value started in 2020/Q4. Higher rates also favor value vs growth. Fund holds a mix of high-quality steady companies, cyclicals and deep-value; Europe accounts for 42%.
    Also
    REVIEW. BIOTECH stocks are in a bear market (XBI -39% YTD, -61% since 02/2021). 120+ biotech have market value less than their net cash on hand. Only a handful of biotech are doing well or OK – AMGN, VRTX, IONS, ALKS, EXEL, MIRM, ALBO, VIVO, IRWD, etc.
  • Allocation/Balanced Funds, Past & Future - MFO 5/1/22
    BofA Securities, the same firm saying in 2019 that the 60/40 portfolio was dead. Imagine if you'd gone to cash then (as the Barron's article suggests) instead of earning double digit returns in 2020 and 2021.
    Admittedly that's an ad hominem remark; we should instead look at the numbers. Unfortunately the piece doesn't indicate the assumptions BofA made or the actual numbers it used. Instead, the piece presents general numbers (e.g. AGG loss of 10%) to give the reader the sense that the bottom line figure (49% projected loss) is correct. So I rolled my own.
    Here are some YTD numbers (through May 12, 2022, data from M*):
    50%-70% allocation category average: -12.44%
    VWELX (actively managed): -14.79
    VBIAX (index, 60/40): -15.01%
    Portfolio visualizer, using a 60/40 mix of VTSAX and AGG reports a -12.10% return through the end of April (rebalanced monthly), vs. a -12.20% return for VBIAX. Since VBIAX shows the worst return YTD anyway, we can use it as our metric. I took the -15.01% YTD figure and projected it out for the year.
    I used actual day count (7 days/week, 365 days) to get the fraction of the year so far. The Excel expression used was: YEARFRAC(DATE(2021,12,31),DATE(2022,5,12),1). The fraction of the year so far is 0.361644.
    To compute an annualized (extrapolated) return, one takes (1 + YTD) return and raises it to 1/fraction-of-year power. For example, if we were halfway through the year and had lost 1/3 of value, the projected value at the end of the year would be 2/3 x 2/3 = 4/9 of the original value.
    That's just (1 + YTD) to the power 1/½
    Here, the projected YE value is 84.99% raised to the 1/0.361644 power = 0.63781, or 63.78% of the starting value.
    Finally, we need to incorporate the effect of inflation. Here's the formula:
    image
    Solving for the 2022 inflation rate gives 25%. That is the annual inflation rate that BofA is assuming for Dec 31, 2021 through Dec 31, 2022. Does this pass the laugh test?
    This is so absurd that I did a streamlined sanity check. Please correct if anything looks wrong:
    YTD, down 15% in a bit over 4 months. Annualizing (three thirds of a year): 85% x 85% x 85% = 61.4%
    End of year real value: 61.4%/1.25% (for inflation) = 49%, i.e. a 51% loss of real value.
    Pretty close to the 49% projected.
    Edit: I've been trying to guess how BofA could possibly have come up with a 25% inflation rate. I finally came up with a possibility, though it is astoundingly stupid:
    8.3% (annualized) inflation rate in April x 3 (since Jan-April is 1/3 of the year) ≈ 25%
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 5/11/22
    @yogibearbull,
    Any thoughts on the following?
    VIX was down yesterday when S&P 500 was down a decent amount. VIX is having difficulty cracking 35 today.
    AAII- S&P 500 has been down about 10% since 4/28 while Bearish sentiment is also down coincidentally about 10% - focusing on the severity of the moves in the same direction rather than the percentage of the move.
    CNN fear and greed index is at 6 - the lowest in a year. (CNN is no longer giving me a long term chart of this but I do not remember seeing this low reading in ten years, except for in March 2020).
    2-10 yr rates have come down about 20 bps in the past week but not collapsing.
    The question I am asking myself is, is the stablecoin fiasco muddling some of the readings and perhaps the contagion is not systemic enough to call a bottom in the stock market?
    P.S.: Senate confirmed Powell for the second term.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Threw in the towel, yes it was a white towel ! Sold TMSRX. I ran out of bourbon !
    That's a cardinal sin of trading, investing, teaching, or ... well, anything! You should always have enough bourbon in your hump to last 3 days, just in case! :)
    I'm stalking a few equity positions if they hit my lowball buy points, which may be hit sooner rather than later. Also somewhat intrigued by CGDV, one of the new active ETFs from Capital Group.
    (I bought another large slug of VZ last week, plus sold CNM this week for a slight profit as part of portfolio adjustments.)