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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Last Ten Days Have Been the Hottest in a While (2023 Market Observations)
    ISTM the Barron’s (Roundtable) gurus made some predictions on where the S&P would end this year. Ranged from a low at / below 4,000 to around 4300 (David Giroux on the high end). Sorry - have scanned the back issues and can’t locate those predictions. Thanks for sharing your update Yogi.
    To be honest I pay little attention to the S&P. (Yes - I realize one should). The Dow ISTM is a good indicator of public sentiment (if nothing else) because so many Mom & Pop investors are attuned to it. Still tends to be the headline-grabber on big up / down days. Of course, both are largely U.S. focused. Certainly there are developed markets in Europe / Japan and elsewhere as well as a wide range of undeveloped markets to be possibly included in a long term portfolio.
    Added: What is helpful to me to a degree is watching the % of change + / - in a particular asset or index. Last year was a “gift-horse” in the sense the indexes peaked early in 2022. So, simply pulling up the YTD return gave you a pretty good approximation of the amount of loss from peak. Not that easy now, though there are ways to compute peak to present as well as 1, 3, 5 year gains or losses. I think I’ve alluded in the past to being a bit of a bottom-feeder. Heights in general bother me.
    Actually, simply ”Googling” a stock or fund’s ticker symbol now pulls up an incredible amount of current / backward-looking data. Use it almost daily.
  • This Tale of Humira Made Me Doubt My Healthcare Holdings
    You can always put forth a proposal for the annual meeting if you own shares directly.
    While that's what many people think, that's not quite the way it works.
    Companies don't want Johnny-come-latelies buying a share just before the record date just to introduce a proposal at an annual meeting. Rather, they want you to have some skin in the game before they accept your proposals for a vote. Not much skin, but skin nevertheless.
    The law allows a company to require shareholders submitting proposals to have a small but substantial pecuniary interest in the company. In 2020, the SEC "adopted amendments to Exchange Act Rule 14a-8, the shareholder-proposal rule."
    [It] amend[ed] Rule 14a-8(b) by:
    • replacing the current ownership threshold, which requires holding at least $2,000 or 1% of a company’s securities for at least one year, with three alternative thresholds that will require a shareholder to demonstrate continuous ownership of at least:
      • $2,000 of the company’s securities for at least three years;
      • $15,000 of the company’s securities for at least two years; or
      • $25,000 of the company’s securities for at least one year.
    https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2020-220
    For completeness (and to split hairs even more finely), you don't necessarily have to own shares directly (i.e. be shareholder of record) in order to submit shareholder proposals.
    What I think you're alluding to are the limited rights that mutual fund owners have with respect to the underlying companies in the portfolio. There, fund owners don't even hold company shares indirectly. Often indirect ownership is sufficient. The most common example likely being street name ownership.
    Again looking at Rule 14a-8:
    There are two types of security holders in the U.S.: registered owners and beneficial owners [footnote omitted]. Registered owners have a direct relationship with the issuer because their ownership of shares is listed on the records maintained by the issuer or its transfer agent. ...
    The vast majority of investors in shares issued by U.S. companies, however, are beneficial owners, which means that they hold their securities in book-entry form through a securities intermediary, such as a broker or a bank. Beneficial owners are sometimes referred to as “street name” holders. Rule 14a-8(b)(2)(i) provides that a beneficial owner can provide proof of ownership to support his or her eligibility to submit a proposal...
    https://www.sec.gov/corpfin/staff-legal-bulletin-14f-shareholder-proposals
  • This Tale of Humira Made Me Doubt My Healthcare Holdings
    @WABAC and @sma3: I appreciate your responses. A few years ago, while watching my CELG shares make a huge climb upward, I rationalized that I was offsetting my rapidly increasing out-of-pocket healthcare expenses by investing in the sector. Now I feel a certain amount of guilt that I, as opposed to a retiree on a very limited budget, have enough discretionary capital to be able to profit from the misfortune of others. I also realize that I do not screen my funds or stocks with anything like a social responsibility screen. While I own BIAWX, it's not because its "responsible," but because it's a good growth fund. I invest in healthcare because it's "defensive," yet I may not like the fact that profits are made because sick people will always need treatment. I like the fact that healthcare funds don't decline as much as the rest of the market on down days. A Hobson's choice, I suppose.
  • media economy coverage
    @LewisBraham
    Thank you for your kind response and discussion.
    America's tortured history of race indeed should be discussed in schools at all levels, including discussions about the motivations of slaveholders in the Revolution.
    But I am trying to make the point that the approach to subjects like these needs to be done in a very careful, well researched manner that will encourage the people whose minds are perhaps still a little open to participate in the discussion.
    By that I mean extreme care should be taken to avoid statements and opinions that either political extreme can pick up and run with, such as "one of the primary reasons ... was because they wanted to protect the institution of slavery".
    But I don't think extreme care was taken in the lead 1619 essay. Professor Leslie Harris was asked to fact check the essay before they published it and warned Hannah-Jones and the NYT this statement was inaccurate
    "On August 19 of last year I listened in stunned silence as Nikole Hannah-Jones, a reporter for the New York Times, repeated an idea that I had vigorously argued against with her fact-checker: that the patriots fought the American Revolution in large part to preserve slavery in North America."
    (The quote comes from the article below which is also a good summary of the rapid increase in the last 30 years in American Historical scholarship on slavery, which Harris applauds and has been part of and claims that Gordon Wood has not)
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/06/1619-project-new-york-times-mistake-122248
    The NYT eventually backed down, sorta, " We stand behind the basic point, which is that among the various motivations that drove the patriots toward independence was a concern that the British would seek or were already seeking to disrupt in various ways the entrenched system of American slavery". Not very convincing is it?
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/magazine/an-update-to-the-1619-project.html
    I do not really know the NYT editors motivation in publishing the original statement, but ideology certainly seems to have payed a part, rather than a rigorous search for the truth.
    The right wing has unfortunately used this to ban 1619 books, and now AP courses in African American history ( which does include sections that some parents would find inappropriate for high school), and now a few people and one right wing foundation are attempting to muzzle basic support for diverse viewpoints and LGBT people in any school n Michigan, because state law allows parents to opt their child out of "sex education".
    https://popular.info/p/inside-the-audacious-new-scheme-to
    You should look at it "Judd at popular information" on Substack, He does an immense amount of work tracking down dark money supporting these legislative movements, and tracks corporations spending on politics very carefully. Most corporations claim they support equal rights for women, LGBT, and election integrity but give lots of money to election deniers, and bigots. Their money has clearly been a major source of the divisive poisonous political atmosphere we find ourselves in.
    It is unclear to me why US corporations believe that fostering these political confrontations will be positive in the long run or good for their business. I assume they are too scared not to cough up the cash, after seeing what happened to Disney in Florida.
  • TBO private board - respond to this thread to apply for access to the board
    Hi , I am also victim of TBO capital group , can you please grant me access ?
  • Jittery Investors Turn to Cash in Hunt for Yield - WSJ
    FWIW, I have Capital One a/c. But what I don't like is that it keeps coming up with new a/c with higher yields ("360 Performance Saving" is the latest) and leaves legacy savings at low levels (they exist but not even shown on the website). The next may be "360 Super Performance Saving".
    The legacy savings owners are not informed about the newer options. This has been in the news for Capital One and other banks. A while back, I called Capital One to complain, and the Rep suggested to just open a new 360 Performance Savings and transfer money - that is what I did. As the Bank is linked default for some transfers I make, I keep a variable amount depending on the current deals.
  • Jittery Investors Turn to Cash in Hunt for Yield - WSJ
    Capital One Bank is paying 3.3% for their Savings Account, and 4.15% for one year CDs. That is still below the 4.27% and 4.42% for a Money Market fund at Schwab. and I can get one year CDs at Schwab for a 4.75% Coupon rate. Capital One offers some liquidity advantages for me, with a local branch that appeals to my wife, and CD penalities for early termination is much less "painful" than brokerage CDs at Schwab. You take a hit on interest rate amounts at Capital One, but not as significant as some might expect.
  • Jittery Investors Turn to Cash in Hunt for Yield - WSJ
    ”The dash for cash on Wall Street is back on. Investors have added about $135 billion to global money-market funds over the past four weeks … through Jan. 18. That is the best stretch since the four-week period ended May 2020, when those funds logged roughly $175 billion in net inflows …
    “Increased cash allocations are the latest sign of caution among investors who are questioning whether the recent rebound in stocks and bonds will continue … The average return on U.S. money-market funds this month is 4.12%, the highest yield since the 2008 financial crisis … The S&P 500, on the other hand, has a dividend yield of about 1.6%.”

    By the end of December, assets sitting in money-market funds hit a record $5.18 trillion … That surpassed the previous high of $5.16 trillion from May 2020 … In December, individual investors slightly lowered the share of cash in their portfolios to about 21.8%, below the historical average of roughly 22.5% … The reading still marks one of the highest levels since May 2020. In comparison, stock and stock fund allocations are at about 63.9%, above the historical average of around 61.5%.
    Excerpted from: The Wall Street Journal (Print Edition) January 26, 2023 (Narrative edited for brevity. Attribution to data sources omitted for brevity).
    You’ll likely need a WSJ subscription to access story online.
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    Some thoughts on bonds from David Giroux, manager of PRWCX, in this week’s Barron’s:
    * “My last recommendation is a bond. I echo the view expressed here that fixed income hasn't been this attractive in a long time. We invest in high-quality high-yield bonds and high-quality leveraged loans—issuers whose Ebitda isn't volatile and that have a large EV [enterprise value] cushion, relative to their debt. You can get yields of 7% to 8% today in the high-yield and leveraged-loan market without taking on bankruptcy risk.
    “My pick is the Hub International 7% coupon unsecured bond that matures on May 1, 2026, trading for $99. This is a bond that tends to be reasonably liquid, given its large size, and should be able to be purchased through most, if not all, brokerage accounts. Hub is one of the largest private midmarket insurance brokerages. It is an attractive business with low capital intensity, long-term organic growth in the mid-single digits, and low cyclicality … “

    The above is Giroux’s final (fifth) recommendation. For what interest it may hold, following are the 4 equity investments he recommends:
    - GE HealthCare Technologies GEHC $58.95
    - Avantor AVTR $20.07
    - Fortive FTV $65.54
    - NXP Semiconductors NXPI $159.63
    * Excerpt & additional information from: Barron’s “Roundtable III” - January 30, 2023 print edition.
    Extra-topical - But makes you wonder why he was high on AMZN a year ago when it was 30% more expensive but fails to mention it this year? But I digress …. :)
  • Penn Capital Floating Rate Income Fund to be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1618627/000139834423001236/fp0082003-1_497.htm
    497 1 fp0082003-1_497.htm
    THE RBB FUND TRUST
    Penn Capital Floating Rate Income Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    ______________________________________________________________________________
    Supplement dated January 27, 2023
    to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) dated December 31, 2022
    ______________________________________________________________________________
    The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of The RBB Fund Trust (the “Trust”), based upon the recommendation of Penn Capital Management Company, LLC (the “Adviser”), approved a Plan of Liquidation and Termination for the Fund (the “Plan”). The Board concluded that it is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund be closed and liquidated as a series of the Trust effective as of the close of business on or about February 27, 2023.
    Effective as of January 30, 2023, in anticipation of the liquidation, the Fund will no longer accept purchases into the Fund. In addition, the Adviser is in the process of transitioning the Fund’s portfolio securities to cash and/or cash equivalents and the Fund will no longer be pursuing its stated investment objective.
    Shareholders of the Fund may redeem their investments as described in the Fund’s Prospectus. The redemption of shares will generally be considered a taxable event.
    If you hold shares of the Fund in an IRA account, you have 60 days from the date you receive your proceeds from the liquidation of the Fund (the “Proceeds”) to reinvest or “rollover” your Proceeds into another IRA and maintain their tax-deferred status. You must notify the Fund’s transfer agent by telephone at 1-844-302-PENN (7366) (toll free) prior to February 27, 2023 of your intent to rollover your IRA account to avoid withholding deductions from your Proceeds.
    Pursuant to the Plan, if the Fund has not received your redemption request or other instruction prior to February 27, 2023, your shares will be automatically redeemed on February 27, 2023 at the closing net asset value per share, and you will receive your Proceeds from the Fund, subject to any required withholding. These Proceeds will generally be subject to federal and possibly state and local income taxes if the redeemed Fund shares are held in a taxable account, and the Proceeds exceed your adjusted basis in the Fund shares redeemed.
    If the redeemed Fund shares are held in a qualified retirement account, such as an IRA, the redemption Proceeds may not be subject to current income taxation. You should consult with your tax advisor on the consequences of this redemption to you.
    Shareholder inquiries should be directed to the Fund at 1-844-302-PENN (7366).
    * * * * *
    Please retain this supplement for your reference.
  • media economy coverage
    University auxiliary services (bookstores, dorms, dining halls, gyms, sports, stadiums, etc) have their own operating budgets and are not part of the academic budgets (tuition, faculty/staff salaries).
    Public university tuitions have gone up because state supports have declined significantly. At my university, state support was about 70-80% when I started, but only 10-15% by the time I retired. Some joked that we could stop using the state's name and be free but the explanation was that it wasn't simple - as land-grant university, we got lot of land, and buildings that were from separate capital budgets, and it would be impossible to pay for those.
    In as much as out-of-state tuitions are attractive to universities, several have strict limits on nonstate enrollments. This is because for each nonstate student admitted, there may be a qualifying state student not admitted.
    Private university tuitions are going up because many rich folks are willing to pay for the name and prestige; but lot of students get financial aid (via scholarships, grants, loans, campus work) and their effective tuition may be about half the listed tuitions.
    Community colleges/2-yr colleges are mostly funded locally (property taxes, etc); there is some state funding too. Often, one has to a resident in the district to qualify for low tuition.
  • media economy coverage
    There is also of course the PPP business loan forgiveness hypocrisy from the 2020 bailouts:
    https://statesman.com/story/news/politics/politifact/2022/09/06/fact-check-ppp-loans-forgiven-republicans-matt-gaetz-marjorie-taylor-greene/65470173007/ It's OK for Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor Greene to get their business loans forgiven, but not students.
    There are also ancillary benefits to society overall from an educated populace: less crime, better understanding of the political process and an educated workforce to compete with other nations. It isn't just me, me, me as Crash suggested, although a degree is pretty much essential now to be in the middle class. Ironically, there are states today that spend more tax dollars on prisons than they do on public schools and their university systems.
  • schp etf question
    @Devo : Thanks for your info. Can you tell me what drove the adjusted NAV from $51.22 01/01/2020 to $54.38 at the end of Aug. 2020 as no dividends were paid during this time period.
    Thank you, Derf
  • schp etf question
    @Crash Dividends not pd for number of months / year.
    2018 3 not pd
    2019 4 ''
    2020 8 ''
    2021 3 "
    You are correct on amount of dividends also not consistent.
  • media economy coverage
    While I have my own issues with student loan forgiveness, I can understand the perspective of Millennials and Gen Zs who think it’s hypocritical that many in the older generation were perfectly fine with two massive government taxpayer funded bailouts of financial markets in 2008-09 and 2020 in which the younger generations have little invested because in part they are laden with student debt. Not to mention the fact that in some cases I imagine they are indebted to the very banks that were bailed out with taxpayer dollars in 2009. That is on top of the bailouts “small businesses” got in 2020, which the government defines as any company with less than 500 employees—many large companies qualified.
    And finally, the cost of tuition is astonishing today even at public universities, when the older generations had much more affordable educations. The average cost of attendance for a student living on campus at a public 4-year in-state institution is $25,707 per year or $102,828 over 4 years. Out-of-state students pay $43,421 per year or $173,684 over 4 years. Private, nonprofit university students pay $54,501 per year or $218,004 over 4 years. This in a country where tuition at public universities was once exceedingly low and in certain cases free. It is also true that it is extremely difficult for anyone to have a middle class life today without a college degree when this was not the case in earlier generations. Well-paying Industrial blue collar jobs that don’t require a degree have largely disappeared in 2023. So kids have to go to college and they end up in debt because of it.
  • media economy coverage
    I would wager a sizable sum that Baseball_Fan has never read the 1619 Project and is merely parroting what he hears from the usual sources. Nor does he know what Marxism is. I suspect any sort of taxation to him for purposes other than the protection of his personal property he views as Marxism. Wanting, say, a public park or public schools makes you a Marxist. Meanwhile, numerous studies have shown the very capitalist stock market has performed better under “tax and spend” Democratic presidents than Republican ones.
    Moreover, Biden worked for over 30 years as a senator of Delaware, the nation’s incorporation capital, helping to pass legislation highly favorable to the extremely capitalist credit card and banking industries. But somehow he’s a Marxist too for wanting poor people to eat, our roads and bridges to be repaired and children and the elderly to have healthcare.
    Where do people who oppose any sort of taxpayer funded government programs think the money goes other than the private sector in the U.S.? The two work in concert in the U.S.. That is not Marxism by any means. The reason Moderna's stock has done so well is the government spent billions of dollars helping it develop vaccines and then purchased those vaccines from it. That is true for the entire healthcare sector by the way. And yes, as DavidrMoran has pointed out, such government spending stimulates the economy, creating jobs and increasing GDP. It's called the multiplier effect, not Marxism.
  • Q3 All-Season Sector Rotation Fund changes
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1545440/000158064223000383/umt_497e.htm
    497 1 umt_497e.htm
    January 25, 2023
    Q3 ALL-SEASON SECTOR ROTATION FUND
    A Series of Ultimus Managers Trust
    Supplement to the Summary Prospectus and Prospectus
    each dated March 30, 2022, as supplemented on April 8, 2022, May 3, 2022, July 26, 2022, and September 21, 2022 and the Statement of Additional Information dated March 30, 2022, as supplemented on May 3, 2022, July 26, 2022, and September 21, 2022
    (This Supplement replaces the first Supplement dated January 25, 2023.)
    This supplement updates certain information in the Summary Prospectus, statutory Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information (the “SAI”) of the Q3 All-Season Sector Rotation Fund (the “Fund”), a series of Ultimus Managers Trust (the “Trust”). For more information or to obtain a copy of the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, or the SAI, free of charge, please contact the Fund at 1-855-784-2399.
    On January 18, 2023 the Board of Trustees of the Trust (the “Board”) approved the following changes to the name, the investment objective and the investment strategy of the Fund, which changes are expected to take effect on or about March 30, 2023:
    The name of the Fund will be changed to the Q3 All-Season Systematic Opportunities Fund.
    The investment objective will be changed to reflect that the Fund will seek to achieve capital appreciation.
    The investment strategy will be revised to reflect the Fund’s use of a different strategy, as described in the revised Prospectus and SAI.
    Notice is hereby provided to shareholders of the Fund that the foregoing changes are anticipated to take effect on or about March 30, 2023.
    Each of these changes will be reflected in a Summary Prospectus, statutory Prospectus and SAI dated on or about March 30, 2023. A revised Summary Prospectus, which incorporates the foregoing changes, will be provided to shareholders of the Fund once these changes go into effect. Copies of the preliminary statutory prospectus (“Preliminary Prospectus”) and SAI will be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and will reflect the foregoing changes, which will be publicly available on the SEC’s website. The information in the Preliminary Prospectus and SAI is not complete and may be changed.
    Investors Should Retain this Supplement for Future Reference
  • Matthews Korea Fund to be reorganized into an ETF
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/923184/000119312523015201/d445147d497.htm
    497 1 d445147d497.htm FORM 497
    SUPPLEMENT DATED JANUARY 25, 2023
    TO THE INVESTOR CLASS AND INSTITUTIONAL CLASS PROSPECTUSES
    DATED APRIL 28, 2022, AS SUPPLEMENTED, AND
    STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
    DATED JULY 29, 2022, AS SUPPLEMENTED, OF
    MATTHEWS ASIA FUNDS
    For all existing and prospective shareholders of Matthews Korea Fund – Investor Class Shares (MAKOX) and Institutional Class Shares (MIKOX):
    At a meeting held on January 12, 2023, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Matthews International Funds, d/b/a Matthews Asia Funds, agreed to consider in early 2023 the conversion (the “Conversion”) of the Matthews Korea Fund (the “Fund”) to a newly created exchange-traded fund (an “ETF”), to be named the Matthews Korea Active ETF (the “Korea ETF”).
    The Korea ETF will be managed in a substantially similar manner as the Fund, with identical investment objectives and fundamental investment policies and substantially similar investment strategies. If approved by the Board, it is anticipated that the Conversion would occur in 2023. By converting the Fund to an ETF, Matthews International Capital Management, LLC (“Matthews”), the Fund’s investment adviser, believes shareholders in the Fund could benefit from lower overall net expenses, additional trading flexibility, increased portfolio holdings transparency and enhanced tax efficiency.
    Matthews is communicating the proposed plans prior to formal Board approval in order to provide ample notice of the planned Conversion and allow shareholders time to engage with Matthews on the implications of the proposed transaction, including the need to have a brokerage account before the Conversion occurs.
    The Conversion would consist of (1) the transfer of all or substantially all of the Fund’s assets, subject to its liabilities, to the Korea ETF for shares of the Korea ETF; and (2) the distribution of the Korea ETF shares to Fund shareholders, after which the Fund will no longer exist. It is anticipated that if approved by the Board, the Conversion will not require shareholder approval.
    When the Conversion is considered, the Board, including the Trustees not deemed to be “interested persons” of the Fund pursuant to Section 2(a)(19) of the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, will need to determine that it is in the best interests of the Fund and that the Conversion would not dilute the interests of the Fund’s shareholders.
    The Korea ETF has not commenced investment operations, and it is not expected to have shareholders before the Conversion. If the Conversion is approved by the Board, existing shareholders of the Fund will receive a combined information statement/prospectus describing in detail both the Conversion and the Korea ETF, and summarizing the Board’s considerations in approving the Conversion.
    It is anticipated that the Conversion will qualify as a tax-free reorganization for federal income tax purposes and that shareholders will not recognize any gain or loss in connection with the Conversion, except to the extent that they receive cash in lieu of fractional shares of the Korea ETF.
    In connection with the proposed Conversion, an information statement/prospectus that will be included in a registration statement on Form N-14 will be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”). After the registration statement is filed with the SEC, it may be amended or withdrawn, and it will not be distributed to shareholders unless and until it is declared effective by the SEC. Investors are urged to read the materials and any other relevant documents when they become available because they will contain important information about the Conversion. After they are filed, free copies of the materials will be available on the SEC’s web site at www.sec.gov. These materials also will be available at www.matthewsasia.com and a paper copy can be obtained at no charge by calling 800-789-ASIA (2742).
    This communication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer of any securities for sale. No offer of securities will be made except pursuant to a prospectus meeting the requirements of Section 10 of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
    Please retain this Supplement with your records.
  • Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments
    For those who think their FDIC-insured bank accounts/CDs would be safe in the event of a Treasury bond default: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USGSEC
    Things would be OK perhaps in the short-term if it's just a missed Treasury payment--a technical default- but not in the long-term for any extended standoff and collapse. The whole system is built on the "risk-free" rate of Treasuries, lives or dies with it. Banks own $4.4 trillion in government debt. And yes, it is a political issue. The extremists' goal of this standoff is to destroy the social safety net, cut Food Stamps, welfare, unemployment benefits, Medicaid and, in the long-term, Social Security and Medicare. And so the fate of T-Bill and Treasury bond holders, the U.S. dollar, and our entire financial system is wrapped up with this debate.
    Meanwhile, the idea that the FDIC because it is financed by banks and not the government can save all the banks that would go bust in an extended default is wrong. The FDIC depends on the Deposit Insurance Fund--https://investopedia.com/terms/d/deposit-insurance-fund.asp--to bail out banks. As of the FDIC's last 2021 annual report issued in April of 2022--https://fdic.gov/about/financial-reports/reports/2021annualreport/2021-arfinal.pdf--the insurance fund had $115 billion set aside to bail out banks. That's good for a few banks, not for an entire financial system in disrepair. Even worse, what is the Deposit Insurance Fund invested in? Treasury bonds! See page 133 of the annual report.
    If we miss a T-bill/Treasury payment because of our government being held hostage, the world will survive. But going over the edge into a serious government bankruptcy would be end times for the capital markets. Nor am I trying to be alarmist. In fact, this scenario makes me almost positive the situation won't get any further than brinkmanship and everything for wealthy T-Bill/Treasury-bond holders--and every other investor in the financial food chain--will be fine. And even if the extremists kept pushing, the 14th amendment will be invoked: https://newrepublic.com/article/169857/debt-ceiling-law-terminate-constitution A missed payment and the volatility that will result because of it will be a buying opportunity. Meanwhile, some awful concession will be made regarding the safety net for America's poorest most vulnerable citizens--politics in the extreme.
  • Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments
    As a retired and conservative investor, I currently have investments only in short term FDIC insured CDs by large national US banks and in Treasury only MM funds. As the CDs mature over the next several months, I will put the proceeds also into Treasury only MM funds until the hopefully unlikely US default crisis has past.
    In the current market environment, preserving capital is more important to me than seeking return on capital.
    Fred