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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • more lockdowns in China.
    China does not want to buy western-developed vaccines at the expense of COVID outbreaks among the major citie… They are revisiting spring 2020 again and this impacts their export business.
    This CCP strategy to work requires a lot of permanent brain washing of their citizens. But important to us is to reduce reliance on such brain washed citizens for critical inputs like medicines and other goods and services of national importance.
  • more lockdowns in China.
    China does not want to buy western-developed vaccines at the expense of COVID outbreaks among the major cities. China’s vaccines are only 52% against Alpha strain. By now, they are even less efficient against Omacron 4/5. The combination of high population and lack of efficient immunization, They are revisiting spring 2020 again and this impacts their export business.
  • europe. cum ex scandal
    JPMorgan is only the latest bank to be raided.
    From four months ago:
    The German branch of Morgan Stanley was searched by prosecutors in Frankfurt in relation to "past activity" on Tuesday, a spokesperson for the U.S. bank said.
    ...
    A large number of banks were involved in the cum-ex deals: In the past few weeks alone there have been raids on the German branches of Barclays and the investment bank Merrill Lynch.
    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frankfurt-bank-two-homes-searched-relation-cum-ex-scandal-2022-05-03/
    The Financial Times reports that:
    Prosecutors have been investigating the scandal for years, but the inquiry was stepped up last month when a former senior banker from Fortis bank was arrested in Mallorca at the request of Frankfurt prosecutors.
    https://www.ft.com/content/84ad1e87-cad2-47d7-832f-5025b74a081d
    (Subscription usually required, though google search may yield access)
    As Reuters noted years ago, this was a legal loophole in Germany until 2012, though courts have ruled otherwise.
    German banks exploited a legal loophole that allowed two parties to claim ownership of the same shares. ... The loophole was closed in 2012, with the means of claiming double ownership banned. ... a German regional court ruling in February [2016] found there was no legal basis for the double claiming of rebates, even before it was banned in 2012
    https://www.reuters.com/article/germany-dividends/dividend-tax-scandal-how-banks-short-changed-germany-idUSL8N1991BN
    I like the NYTimes description from 2020:
    The scheme was built around “cum-ex trading” (from the Latin for “with-without”): a monetary maneuver to avoid double taxation of investment profits that plays out like high finance’s answer to a David Copperfield stage illusion. Through careful timing, and the coordination of a dozen different transactions, cum-ex trades produced two refunds for dividend tax paid on one basket of stocks.
    One basket of stocks. Abracadabra. Two refunds.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/23/business/cum-ex.html
    The US has a distantly related form of legerdemain. In the EU, these banks took one basket of stocks and pretended (legal fiction) that it had been taxed twice, In the US, mutual funds and ETFs take one basket of stocks, sell it (via redemption in kind), and pretend (legal fiction) that no sales have taken place. Abracadabra. No capital gains recognized (IRC §852(b)(6)), tax averted.
    The main difference seems to be that the EU fiction had a fraudulent intent; the US fiction is out in the open - no fraud. Either way, the legal fictions are tax loopholes.
  • There are 'unusually attractive' prices for promising companies, says Ron Baron
    Dollar-cost-averaging makes sense. But "averaging down" just HURTS.
    A matter of perspective. I generally associate “buying down” with chasing after a single holding (fund or stock) as it drops. That‘s dangerous.
    “Rebalancing” IMHO is good practice in both rising and falling markets. In the first instance it causes you to sell things that have appreciated recently, locking in those gains. In the second instance it forces you to buy whatever hasn’t been working lately and is likely better priced. This only works, however, if you adhere to a well defined portfolio model with target ranges for all your various investments and well thought out in advance. Makes buy and sell decisions a lot easier. And, needless to say, it only works if you’re comfortable with the types of investments you’ve chosen for your model portfolio in the first case.
  • Is Berkshire more like a Mutual Fund than a stock?
    Thanks, @yogibearbull.
    If BHE redeemed his stock, then it is a taxable transaction to him. If he wanted a tax-free transaction, then they would have structured it as an exchange of BRK stock for his BHE stock. With BRK stock, he probably can get market returns but not much more in the long run. If he really wanted to cash out to invest elsewhere (e.g., good opportunities coming up in venture capital space), it is better to just take the redemption route.
  • VettaFi
    @Crash, ETFdb has been my go-to site for ETFs for years and I noticed a new look and layout only today, 8/29/22 (but not a few days ago when I checked it also) although formally, all this happened in May 2022. Then I got to the bottom of this and that may be too much info for most. Anyway, more explanations follows.
    This is an important fund industry (CEFs, OEFs, ETFs) news related to consolidation on 2 fronts.
    1. ETF Data & Education. ETFdb (2009- ) is a comprehensive, go-to resource for ETFs. Sister ETFTrend (2005- ) focuses on ETF news, developments and education. ETFdb acquired ETFTrend in 2019.
    2. ETF Indexers. Alerian (2004- ) provides indexes for MLP and energy funds. S-Network (1997- ) provides indexes for smart-beta, sector thematic, alternatives and ESG funds. Alerian acquired S-Network in 2020.
    Now all of these belong to VettaFi. It is possible/likely that all will retain their identity and names in some form, but their URLs may change eventually. VettFi is a coined/made-up name, and its executives may decide on a unified rebranding at some point (or not).
    Thanks, @yogibearbull. Extremely detailed and useful! :)
  • VettaFi
    @Crash, ETFdb has been my go-to site for ETFs for years and I noticed a new look and layout only today, 8/29/22 (but not a few days ago when I checked it also) although formally, all this happened in May 2022. Then I got to the bottom of this and that may be too much info for most. Anyway, more explanations follows.
    This is an important fund industry (CEFs, OEFs, ETFs) news related to consolidation on 2 fronts.
    1. ETF Data & Education. ETFdb (2009- ) is a comprehensive, go-to resource for ETFs. Sister ETFTrend (2005- ) focuses on ETF news, developments and education. ETFdb acquired ETFTrend in 2019.
    2. ETF Indexers. Alerian (2004- ) provides indexes for MLP and energy funds. S-Network (1997- ) provides indexes for smart-beta, sector thematic, alternatives and ESG funds. Alerian acquired S-Network in 2020.
    Now all of these belong to VettaFi. It is possible/likely that all will retain their identity and names in some form, but their URLs may change eventually. VettFi is a coined/made-up name, and its executives may decide on a unified rebranding at some point (or not).
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    Young Giroux (only 31), a capital goods analyst (who had won an industry award for analysts) but without any prior fund management experience, and without much overlap with the previous managers of PRWCX, was given the responsibility for a major fund like PRWCX in 2006. Price obviously saw the potential, but it took time for others to realize that. Amazingly, Giroux has delivered SP500 like returns with only 60-70% equity exposure (but he takes more credit risks with his bonds); screenshot shows period 1/1/2006-now. So, it isn’t a conventional moderate-allocation fund, but a capital appreciation fund that seeks higher returns than its nominal equity exposure.
    image
  • Technical question? Or "Other Investing" question? I dunno
    I'm looking at this chart very simplistically (i.e. just the technicals) and I have have done zero point diddly fundamental analysis of the stock or company. The price seems to sit right where it was in June 2020. It nearly doubled from there by August of 2021 but has since retraced all of that gain and appears as though it wants to continue to advance to the rear. I mean it's barely trying to break the trend. The technical chart at StockCharts.com confirms this with a low RSI, trading far below it's 200dMA. It's also trading below its 50dMA and money is flowing out of the stock (CMF = Chaikin Money Flow). So 'technically' it's not a good time to be buying and I wouldn't consider investing until these indicators show signs of moving up (i.e. reversing).
    Having said that something 'fundamentally' could lead analysts to say it's worth your money and interest but you couldn't prove it by what the chart is technically indicating.
    Which is better?
  • Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
    I am little concerned w USA jobs market/ data Feds plans, recessions, uncontrolled inflation....
    I am more concerned w other parts of world - EU USSR and especially CHINA economy -housing bubble [??Lehman brothers 2.0) -c19 frequent recurrent Locks Downs -recession surely pull all of us down/sink whole global economy
    If that the case sp500 head toward 2900 Triple dip [april 2020, early 2022, and late 2022-2023)
    Sp500 severe resistance near below 3900 if breaks ...waterfall
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    here's one i recall investigating in 2020 at the worst of the covid business. they did not get wifey's 403b rollover money because they simply took too long to even send the requested paperwork. that fund was flying high. looks like it's had a hard fall. still above the benchmarks, though. crazy-high p/e in the portfolio.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vlaax/quote
    anyhow, BRUFX ended up with the rollover money.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/brufx/quote
  • Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
    With extremely low unemployment and still many unfilled jobs looking for applicants, it seems that inflation may remain at a fairly high level for longer than many expect. Hence, the Fed may have to be quite aggressive in its tightening process over the next couple of years to achieve its stated goals. The markets could experience some tough times down the road.
    As David Rosenberg suggests: "Play the long game by being patient, being nimble, since intermittent rallies will come and go, and focusing mostly on capital preservation." This, it seems to me, is particularly good advice for retirees.
    Along those lines, two funds that I have been following performed quite well in yesterday's market crash. PGAGX gained 0.47%, and has a YTD gain of 8.44%. FARIX lost only 0.32%, but has a YTD gain of 5.22%.
    Good luck,
    Fred
  • WSJ: Pension Funds Are Selling Their Office Buildings
    If the trends mentioned here are the beginning of a long-term trend (i.e., symptoms of remote work, de-globalization, just in case inventory systems, etc.) could labor become more premium (i.e., wages as a source of inflation) than what we witnessed in the past decade(s)? Are we in a structural shift to higher inflation, leading to a change in Fed's target inflation rate from 2 to 3-4%? (Is realistic for the Fed to want to stick to the notion that a neutral fed funds rate is 2-2.5%?) I am trying not to become the blissful frog in the boiling water, especially when my income is entirely from capital and zero from labor.
    Add to the above, recent lower productivity readings.
    Which financial assets can do OK in the new world order, assuming the post-Covid world order is different from pre-Covid world order?
    Excess office spaces can be converted into housing which can put downward pressure on housing prices. It was in the news today that Blackstone will halt buying homes in 38 cities / markets.
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    Here's the link for the 6/30/22 semi annual report for TRP Capital Appreciation Fund, PRWCX/TRAIX. As usual a very good read.
    https://prospectus-express.broadridge.com/summary.asp?doctype=semi&clientid=trowepll&fundid=77954M105
  • The bottom are likely in
    TUHYX is having a tough year. I prefer not to chase high yield at the expense of total return. Experience tells me that steep loss in one year will take a long time to fully recover. During stress time such as March 2020, all HY bond funds fell along with equities - it was ugly. High quality treasuries did better and bounced back quickly as Fed cut rates to near zero (0.25%) and ended by year end in black.
    My point is that majority of investors use bond funds/ETFs in their tax-deferred and taxable accounts. While buying individual treasuries and holding them to maturity is doable, it is not so practical for many including myself.
    For now I will stick with short term TIPs ETFs and BL bond funds.
  • .....And....... fizzle. Again. 24 Aug. '22.
    The header pretty much says it all. Dow, SP giving back gains. Nasdaq and R2k still up respectably. My bank stock is out of black and into red. Guess the Financials will take another hit today. (BHB. very low volume, too.). Warch TRP Financials: PRISX. My newest darling, Norsk Hydro, is still up. NHYDY.
  • Champlain Emerging Markets Fund to close to new investors and liquidate (new)
    update:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/890540/000139834422016134/fp0078918_497.htm
    497 1 fp0078918_497.htm
    THE ADVISORS’ INNER CIRCLE FUND II
    (the “Trust”)
    Champlain Emerging Markets Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated August 22, 2022 to the Fund’s Prospectus (the “Prospectus”), Summary
    Prospectus (the “Summary Prospectus”) and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”), each
    dated May 1, 2022, as supplemented
    This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and SAI, and should be read in conjunction with the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and SAI.
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust, at the recommendation of Champlain Investment Partners, LLC (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser of the Fund, has approved a plan of liquidation providing for the liquidation of the Fund’s assets and the distribution of the net proceeds pro rata to the Fund’s shareholders. In connection therewith, the Fund is closed to investments from new and existing shareholders effective immediately, including investments made by current shareholders via systematic investment programs. The Fund is expected to cease operations and liquidate on or about September 23, 2022 (the “Liquidation Date”). The Liquidation Date may be changed without notice at the discretion of the Trust’s officers.
    Prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem (sell) their shares in the manner described in the “How to Sell Your Fund Shares” section of the Prospectus. Redemptions made on or after the date of this supplement will not be subject to the 2.00% redemption fee, which ordinarily would be imposed on redemptions of shares made within 30 days of purchase. For those Fund shareholders that do not redeem (sell) their shares prior to the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute to each such shareholder, on or promptly after the Liquidation Date, a liquidating cash distribution equal in value to the shareholder’s interest in the net assets of the Fund as of the Liquidation Date.
    In anticipation of the liquidation of the Fund, the Adviser may manage the Fund in a manner intended to facilitate the Fund’s orderly liquidation, such as by holding cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result, during this time, all or a portion of the Fund may not be invested in a manner consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund from achieving its investment objective.
    The liquidation distribution amount will include any accrued income and capital gains, will be treated as a payment in exchange for shares and will generally be a taxable event for shareholders investing through taxable accounts. You should consult your personal tax advisor concerning your particular tax situation. Shareholders remaining in the Fund on the Liquidation Date will not be charged any transaction fees by the Fund. However, the net asset value of the Fund on the Liquidation Date will reflect costs of liquidating the Fund. Shareholders will receive liquidation proceeds as soon as practicable after the Liquidation Date.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    CSC-SK-022-0100
  • Mutual Funds and Capital Gains Taxes
    Markets also cooperated by being mostly in bullish trend leading to fund inflows. Remember, VG has been the king of fund inflows.
    Flipside of the connection between VG OEFs and ETFs is that when there were large redemptions/outflows in 2020 (and in any other years), both the VG OEF and the related VG ETF had similar CG distributions. See the short table below.
    Self-standing non-VG bond ETFs didn't have this issue. Much of the benefit from the ETF structure is from the combination of indexing and nontaxable in-kind trading. There are some additional benefits from the VG patented structure of having OEF and ETF classes. VG didn't license its patent to anybody else and others didn't really beg VG for that license. But things may change in/after 2023.
    2020 CGs for several VG bond funds
    VEDTX /EDV 3.16%
    VBLAX /BLV 2.69%
    VBILX /BIV 0.71%
    VSIGX /VGIT 0.71%
    VSBSX /VGSH 0.60%
    So how does this help me? Do I want to own the ETF or OEF?
  • Mutual Funds and Capital Gains Taxes
    Vanguard's domestic equity index mutual funds with an ETF share class are listed below ¹.
    Vanguard 500 Index (VFIAX)
    Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index (VDADX)
    Vanguard Extended Market Index (VEXAX)
    Vanguard Growth Index Fund (VIGAX)
    Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index (VHYAX)
    Vanguard Large-Cap Index (VLCAX)
    Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth Index (VMGMX)
    Vanguard Mid-Cap Index (VIMAX)
    Vanguard Mid-Cap Value Index (VMVAX)
    Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index (VSGAX)
    Vanguard Small-Cap Index (VSMAX)
    Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index (VSIAX)
    Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSAX)
    Vanguard Value Index (VVIAX)
    After the corresponding ETF share class was added,
    there were no capital gains distributions for these funds.
    Note: I haven't researched fixed-income index mutual funds or
    international index mutual funds from Vanguard.
    ¹ excludes institutional funds.