Is it September 1, 2022 already ??? The date is not of particular significance for most (unless a birthday, anniversary of some sort or other) and not so much for me either; except that we started Traditional IRA accounts with a paper check, about 44 years ago. We decided to have a lunch trip in the metro Detroit area of Southfield, Michigan; after stopping at the Fidelity office there and presenting paper checks for that years (1978) deposits. We continued to add over the years, eventually having access to 401's and Roth's.
The above is not really of much value for those reading; except the time value of compounding one's investment monies.
Compounding value, of course; depends upon one's choices driving along the investment highway. Perhaps a full limitation of performance depends upon learning experience (meaning knowledge), perhaps an arse kicking loss here and there; which hopefully helps form a solid thinking base going forward.
Today. A bit wiser for investing. The investments over the years could be worth a lot more today; but also worth a lot less; OR ZERO, if the investments were never made.
A benchmark of FBALX provides a personal performance view for us. We remain at this time, a percent point from its weekly performance, as has been the case for this year. We were at a -13.32% TYD, last week. 'Course, using this percentage causes one to look at that in dollar terms, too. Yikes, that's a lot of money to the down side for this year, so far.
But, the main point is that if we had never invested in the first place; well, there wouldn't exist the money to ponder. Only a paper loss at this time. No sells.
We still do take the time to prod folks into start investing in a retirement account. Whatever amount, start slow, try to set aside some time to learn. You have other skills, and you can learn this, too. Don't do crazy things will this money unless you have a full understanding of the circumstances. Be careful with the emotional side; as this can eat away at your clear thinking. Time compounding is your friend.
I had a conversation a few months ago that has taken place for 30 years. She....."I need to talk to you sometime about investing some of my money". 360 months of compounding gone.
Anyway, we investors exist in a very strange world of terms, strange words and investments with a length and variety of capital letters. Add almost every possible variable that may affect an investment, day or night; and we are indeed sometimes a "Stranger in a Strange Land".
I've jabbered enough.
Remain curious and be well.
Catch
CD Question Just bought 1-year CDs at 3.15%. Expect interest rates to go up and may purchase additional CDs in the future.
As a retiree, I am currently in a capital preservation mode until I get a better sense of how far the Fed will go, and how the market reacts to the anticipated rate hikes down the road. At this time, I am in no hurry to put money into bond or stock funds. At my age, I prefer to err on the side of caution.
Good luck,
Fred
more lockdowns in China. China does not want to buy western-developed vaccines at the expense of COVID outbreaks among the major citie… They are revisiting spring 2020 again and this impacts their export business.
This CCP strategy to work requires a lot of permanent brain washing of their citizens. But important to us is to reduce reliance on such brain washed citizens for critical inputs like medicines and other goods and services of national importance.
more lockdowns in China. China does not want to buy western-developed vaccines at the expense of COVID outbreaks among the major cities. China’s vaccines are only 52% against Alpha strain. By now, they are even less efficient against Omacron 4/5. The combination of high population and lack of efficient immunization, They are revisiting spring 2020 again and this impacts their export business.
europe. cum ex scandal JPMorgan is only the latest bank to be raided.
From four months ago:
The German branch of Morgan Stanley was searched by prosecutors in Frankfurt in relation to "past activity" on Tuesday, a spokesperson for the U.S. bank said.
...
A large number of banks were involved in the cum-ex deals: In the past few weeks alone there have been raids on the German branches of Barclays and the investment bank Merrill Lynch.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frankfurt-bank-two-homes-searched-relation-cum-ex-scandal-2022-05-03/The Financial Times reports that:
Prosecutors have been investigating the scandal for years, but the inquiry was stepped up last month when a former senior banker from Fortis bank was arrested in Mallorca at the request of Frankfurt prosecutors.
https://www.ft.com/content/84ad1e87-cad2-47d7-832f-5025b74a081d(Subscription usually required, though google search may yield access)
As Reuters noted years ago, this was a legal loophole in Germany until 2012, though courts have ruled otherwise.
German banks exploited a legal loophole that allowed two parties to claim ownership of the same shares. ... The loophole was closed in 2012, with the means of claiming double ownership banned. ... a German regional court ruling in February [2016] found there was no legal basis for the double claiming of rebates, even before it was banned in 2012
https://www.reuters.com/article/germany-dividends/dividend-tax-scandal-how-banks-short-changed-germany-idUSL8N1991BNI like the NYTimes description from
2020:
The scheme was built around “cum-ex trading” (from the Latin for “with-without”): a monetary maneuver to avoid double taxation of investment profits that plays out like high finance’s answer to a David Copperfield stage illusion. Through careful timing, and the coordination of a dozen different transactions, cum-ex trades produced two refunds for dividend tax paid on one basket of stocks.
One basket of stocks. Abracadabra. Two refunds.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/23/business/cum-ex.htmlThe US has a distantly related form of legerdemain. In the EU, these banks took one basket of stocks and pretended (legal fiction) that it had been taxed twice, In the US, mutual funds and ETFs take one basket of stocks, sell it (via redemption in kind), and pretend (legal fiction) that no sales have taken place. Abracadabra. No
capital gains recognized (
IRC §852(b)(6)), tax averted.
The main difference seems to be that the EU fiction had a fraudulent intent; the US fiction is out in the open - no fraud. Either way, the legal fictions are tax loopholes.
There are 'unusually attractive' prices for promising companies, says Ron Baron Dollar-cost-averaging makes sense. But "averaging down" just HURTS.
A matter of perspective. I generally associate “buying down” with chasing after a single holding (fund or stock) as it drops. That‘s dangerous.
“Rebalancing” IMHO is good practice in both rising and falling markets. In the first instance it causes you to sell things that have appreciated recently, locking in those gains. In the second instance it forces you to buy whatever hasn’t been working lately and is likely better priced. This only works, however, if you adhere to a well defined portfolio model with target ranges for all your various investments and well thought out in advance. Makes buy and sell decisions a lot easier. And, needless to say, it only works if you’re comfortable with the types of investments you’ve chosen for your model portfolio in the first case.
Is Berkshire more like a Mutual Fund than a stock? Thanks,
@yogibearbull.
If BHE redeemed his stock, then it is a taxable transaction to him. If he wanted a tax-free transaction, then they would have structured it as an exchange of BRK stock for his BHE stock. With BRK stock, he probably can get market returns but not much more in the long run. If he really wanted to cash out to invest elsewhere (e.g., good opportunities coming up in venture
capital space), it is better to just take the redemption route.
VettaFi @Crash, ETFdb has been my go-to site for ETFs for years and I noticed a new look and layout only today, 8/29/22 (but not a few days ago when I checked it also) although formally, all this happened in May 2022. Then I got to the bottom of this and that may be too much info for most. Anyway, more explanations follows.
This is an important fund industry (CEFs, OEFs, ETFs) news related to consolidation on 2 fronts.
1. ETF Data & Education. ETFdb (2009- ) is a comprehensive, go-to resource for ETFs. Sister ETFTrend (2005- ) focuses on ETF news, developments and education. ETFdb acquired ETFTrend in 2019.
2. ETF Indexers. Alerian (2004- ) provides indexes for MLP and energy funds. S-Network (1997- ) provides indexes for smart-beta, sector thematic, alternatives and ESG funds. Alerian acquired S-Network in
2020.
Now all of these belong to VettaFi. It is possible/likely that all will retain their identity and names in some form, but their URLs may change eventually. VettFi is a coined/made-up name, and its executives may decide on a unified rebranding at some point (or not).
Thanks,
@yogibearbull. Extremely detailed and useful! :)
VettaFi @Crash, ETFdb has been my go-to site for ETFs for years and I noticed a new look and layout only today, 8/29/22 (but not a few days ago when I checked it also) although formally, all this happened in May 2022. Then I got to the bottom of this and that may be too much info for most. Anyway, more explanations follows.
This is an important fund industry (CEFs, OEFs, ETFs) news related to consolidation on 2 fronts.
1. ETF Data & Education. ETFdb (2009- ) is a comprehensive, go-to resource for ETFs. Sister ETFTrend (2005- ) focuses on ETF news, developments and education. ETFdb acquired ETFTrend in 2019.
2. ETF Indexers. Alerian (2004- ) provides indexes for MLP and energy funds. S-Network (1997- ) provides indexes for smart-beta, sector thematic, alternatives and ESG funds. Alerian acquired S-Network in
2020.
Now all of these belong to VettaFi. It is possible/likely that all will retain their identity and names in some form, but their URLs may change eventually. VettFi is a coined/made-up name, and its executives may decide on a unified rebranding at some point (or not).
PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22 Young Giroux (only 31), a
capital goods analyst (who had won an industry award for analysts) but without any prior fund management experience, and without much overlap with the previous managers of PRWCX, was given the responsibility for a major fund like PRWCX in 2006. Price obviously saw the potential, but it took time for others to realize that. Amazingly, Giroux has delivered SP500 like returns with only 60-70% equity exposure (but he takes more credit risks with his bonds); screenshot shows period 1/1/2006-now. So, it isn’t a conventional moderate-allocation fund, but a
capital appreciation fund that seeks higher returns than its nominal equity exposure.

Technical question? Or "Other Investing" question? I dunno I'm looking at this chart very simplistically (i.e. just the technicals) and I have have done zero point diddly fundamental analysis of the stock or company. The price seems to sit right where it was in June
2020. It nearly doubled from there by August of 2021 but has since retraced all of that gain and appears as though it wants to continue to advance to the rear. I mean it's barely trying to break the trend. The technical chart at
StockCharts.com confirms this with a low RSI, trading far below it's 200dMA. It's also trading below its 50dMA and money is flowing out of the stock (CMF = Chaikin Money Flow). So 'technically' it's not a good time to be buying and I wouldn't consider investing until these indicators show signs of moving up (i.e. reversing).
Having said that something 'fundamentally' could lead analysts to say it's worth your money and interest but you couldn't prove it by what the chart is technically indicating.
Which is better?
Powell's Jackson Hole Speech I am little concerned w USA jobs market/ data Feds plans, recessions, uncontrolled inflation....
I am more concerned w other parts of world - EU USSR and especially CHINA economy -housing bubble [??Lehman brothers 2.0) -c19 frequent recurrent Locks Downs -recession surely pull all of us down/sink whole global economy
If that the case sp500 head toward 2900 Triple dip [april 2020, early 2022, and late 2022-2023)
Sp500 severe resistance near below 3900 if breaks ...waterfall