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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    Price website shows Top 10 monthly. I suppose after admitting that he was frustrated and not happy with GE, he decided to sell - it is gone from Top 10 but he may be holding a small position. Here is the monthly status of GE (scroll to Holdings/Top 10 Holdings),
    https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/us/en/investments/mutual-funds/us-products/capital-appreciation-fund.html
    Date, %, #
    12/31/21, 4.41%, 4
    1/31/22, 4.59%, 4
    2/28/22, 4.67%, 3
    3/31/22, 3.79%, 3
    4/30/22, 3.22%, 2
    5/31/22, 3.38%, 3
    6/30/22, 3.05%, 4
    7/31/22, 3.01%, 4
    8/31/22, Gone from Top 10
  • The Lonely Bull
    I'm taking a page from your playbook, @hank. Incremental, small doses. Starting a position in NHYDY. Adding to PSTL. Both knocked down in a serious way. But some favorite webpages include ratings from analysts which tell me these two are screaming BUYS.
    .....Discovered another prospect, too: ACGL. Arch Capital Group. Specialty insurers, out of Bermuda, but it's too pricey, just now. Looking for a bigger discount.
  • B. Ackman says stocks maybe good buys soon
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bill-ackman-says-stocks-will-soon-be-a-buy-now-that-the-fed-is-doing-what-it-has-to-do-to-fight-inflation-11662474823?mod=home-page
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/06/bill-ackman-outlines-when-the-buy-signal-for-stocks-will-come.html
    Pershing Square Capital Management’s billionaire founder Bill Ackman shared some commentary about markets and the U.S. economy. Ackman: ‘Once people realize the Fed doesn’t have to keep increasing rates and will soon take rates down…that will be a buy signal for markets’
    Ackman expects inflation to fall to 4%, if not 3.5%, from a peak of 9.1% in June. “Our biggest fear was inflation, and that’s why we wanted the Fed to raise interest rates,” he says. Once investors recognize the Fed as winning its battle against inflation, Ackman expects stocks to rebound.
    As of the end of June, Pershing Square’s portfolio consisted of concentrated bets on Lowes Inc. and NFLX. The S&P 500 SPX, NFLX, and Lowes are among the stocks Ackman has bet on this year. Ackman said he hasn't changed much since the beginning of the year.***
    Maybe good insights from Mr Ackman
    9.13 maybe key date w CPI data, if improve fundamentals improve going forward
    Right now I am sidelines waiting few wks months for now
    Late fall mid winters maybe good time if Feds may start pivot /ease Qt
  • What “Bubble”? ARKK closing in on 70% for one year
    Pretty funny to complain about public workers, some of whom such as teachers are dramatically underpaid, “suckling on the teet of the taxpayer” in a thread about a fund with a manager who if not a billionaire is certainly a multimillionaire while completely destroying many shareholders’ returns. How many CEOs and other executives are also extravagantly overpaid for subpar work, destroying jobs, capital, our environment and the fabric of good government? Yet it’s the public sector workers that are the supposed problem. If one considers that something like 80% of active managers wind up underperforming a cheap index fund and are paid handsomely for failing, who is truly doing the “suckling” here?
  • There are 'unusually attractive' prices for promising companies, says Ron Baron
    Another take on Tech and whether the bottom is in...not so fast:
    ‘more pain to come’ for the tech sector
    Higher rates make growth-oriented companies’ future earnings less attractive. Tech companies, especially those backed by venture capital, tend to prioritize growth over short-term profitability.
    “When those companies really start getting down to answering the investor question, the path to profitability, they’re not going to love what they see,” said Bravo.
    orlando-bravo-warns-theres-more-pain-to-come-for-the-tech-sector
  • Polar Capital Emerging Market Stars Fund lowers initial minimum and share class
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1806095/000119312522237777/d331554d497.htm
    497 1 d331554d497.htm 497
    POLAR CAPITAL EMERGING MARKET STARS FUND (the “Fund”)
    A SERIES OF DATUM ONE SERIES TRUST
    Supplement dated September 2, 2022
    to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information
    dated July 29, 2022
    Effective September 1, 2022:
    1. CHANGE IN SHARE CLASS NAME
    The Fund’s sole share class will no longer be designated “Institutional” and all references in the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information to the “Institutional” share class will now refer to the Fund’s sole class of shares. Except as otherwise described in this Supplement, no additional changes to the characteristics of the shares of the Fund are being made in connection with this redesignation.
    2. CHANGE IN INVESTMENT MINIMUM
    The Fund’s initial investment minimum will be lowered from $100,000 to $5,000.
    Therefore, the initial investment minimum disclosed in the section under the heading “Summary Information About the Fund” under the sub-heading “Purchase Minimums” on page 8 of the Fund’s Prospectus and the second to last paragraph under the heading “Shares” under the sub-heading “How to Buy Shares” on page 25 of the Fund’s Prospectus each is hereby updated to $5,000 from $100,000.
    This Supplement and the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information should be retained for future reference.
  • The Health, Finances, and Retirement Prospects of Four Generations
    As investors, our investing capacity is constrained by our income and what income is left over at the end of the month (cost of living) to invest.
    Recent Study:
    a collaboration
    between Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies and
    Transamerica Institute, examines the retirement outlook of
    Generation Z, Millennials, Generation X, and Baby Boomers. It
    focuses on the experiences of employed workers of for-profit
    companies and the impacts of the pandemic on their health,
    employment, financial well-being, and their ability to save and
    invest for retirement. The report is based on findings from the
    21st Annual Transamerica Retirement Survey, one of the largest
    and longest running surveys of its kind. The survey was
    conducted in late 2020 when COVID-19 cases were surging, and
    many businesses were shuttered or operating at limited capacity
    because of the pandemic.
    retirement-survey-of-workers-four-generations-living-in-a-pandemic
  • Is it September 1, 2022 already ???
    The date is not of particular significance for most (unless a birthday, anniversary of some sort or other) and not so much for me either; except that we started Traditional IRA accounts with a paper check, about 44 years ago. We decided to have a lunch trip in the metro Detroit area of Southfield, Michigan; after stopping at the Fidelity office there and presenting paper checks for that years (1978) deposits. We continued to add over the years, eventually having access to 401's and Roth's.
    The above is not really of much value for those reading; except the time value of compounding one's investment monies.
    Compounding value, of course; depends upon one's choices driving along the investment highway. Perhaps a full limitation of performance depends upon learning experience (meaning knowledge), perhaps an arse kicking loss here and there; which hopefully helps form a solid thinking base going forward.
    Today. A bit wiser for investing. The investments over the years could be worth a lot more today; but also worth a lot less; OR ZERO, if the investments were never made.
    A benchmark of FBALX provides a personal performance view for us. We remain at this time, a percent point from its weekly performance, as has been the case for this year. We were at a -13.32% TYD, last week. 'Course, using this percentage causes one to look at that in dollar terms, too. Yikes, that's a lot of money to the down side for this year, so far.
    But, the main point is that if we had never invested in the first place; well, there wouldn't exist the money to ponder. Only a paper loss at this time. No sells.
    We still do take the time to prod folks into start investing in a retirement account. Whatever amount, start slow, try to set aside some time to learn. You have other skills, and you can learn this, too. Don't do crazy things will this money unless you have a full understanding of the circumstances. Be careful with the emotional side; as this can eat away at your clear thinking. Time compounding is your friend.
    I had a conversation a few months ago that has taken place for 30 years. She....."I need to talk to you sometime about investing some of my money". 360 months of compounding gone.
    Anyway, we investors exist in a very strange world of terms, strange words and investments with a length and variety of capital letters. Add almost every possible variable that may affect an investment, day or night; and we are indeed sometimes a "Stranger in a Strange Land".
    I've jabbered enough.
    Remain curious and be well.
    Catch
  • CD Question
    Just bought 1-year CDs at 3.15%. Expect interest rates to go up and may purchase additional CDs in the future.
    As a retiree, I am currently in a capital preservation mode until I get a better sense of how far the Fed will go, and how the market reacts to the anticipated rate hikes down the road. At this time, I am in no hurry to put money into bond or stock funds. At my age, I prefer to err on the side of caution.
    Good luck,
    Fred
  • more lockdowns in China.
    China does not want to buy western-developed vaccines at the expense of COVID outbreaks among the major citie… They are revisiting spring 2020 again and this impacts their export business.
    This CCP strategy to work requires a lot of permanent brain washing of their citizens. But important to us is to reduce reliance on such brain washed citizens for critical inputs like medicines and other goods and services of national importance.
  • more lockdowns in China.
    China does not want to buy western-developed vaccines at the expense of COVID outbreaks among the major cities. China’s vaccines are only 52% against Alpha strain. By now, they are even less efficient against Omacron 4/5. The combination of high population and lack of efficient immunization, They are revisiting spring 2020 again and this impacts their export business.
  • europe. cum ex scandal
    JPMorgan is only the latest bank to be raided.
    From four months ago:
    The German branch of Morgan Stanley was searched by prosecutors in Frankfurt in relation to "past activity" on Tuesday, a spokesperson for the U.S. bank said.
    ...
    A large number of banks were involved in the cum-ex deals: In the past few weeks alone there have been raids on the German branches of Barclays and the investment bank Merrill Lynch.
    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frankfurt-bank-two-homes-searched-relation-cum-ex-scandal-2022-05-03/
    The Financial Times reports that:
    Prosecutors have been investigating the scandal for years, but the inquiry was stepped up last month when a former senior banker from Fortis bank was arrested in Mallorca at the request of Frankfurt prosecutors.
    https://www.ft.com/content/84ad1e87-cad2-47d7-832f-5025b74a081d
    (Subscription usually required, though google search may yield access)
    As Reuters noted years ago, this was a legal loophole in Germany until 2012, though courts have ruled otherwise.
    German banks exploited a legal loophole that allowed two parties to claim ownership of the same shares. ... The loophole was closed in 2012, with the means of claiming double ownership banned. ... a German regional court ruling in February [2016] found there was no legal basis for the double claiming of rebates, even before it was banned in 2012
    https://www.reuters.com/article/germany-dividends/dividend-tax-scandal-how-banks-short-changed-germany-idUSL8N1991BN
    I like the NYTimes description from 2020:
    The scheme was built around “cum-ex trading” (from the Latin for “with-without”): a monetary maneuver to avoid double taxation of investment profits that plays out like high finance’s answer to a David Copperfield stage illusion. Through careful timing, and the coordination of a dozen different transactions, cum-ex trades produced two refunds for dividend tax paid on one basket of stocks.
    One basket of stocks. Abracadabra. Two refunds.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/23/business/cum-ex.html
    The US has a distantly related form of legerdemain. In the EU, these banks took one basket of stocks and pretended (legal fiction) that it had been taxed twice, In the US, mutual funds and ETFs take one basket of stocks, sell it (via redemption in kind), and pretend (legal fiction) that no sales have taken place. Abracadabra. No capital gains recognized (IRC §852(b)(6)), tax averted.
    The main difference seems to be that the EU fiction had a fraudulent intent; the US fiction is out in the open - no fraud. Either way, the legal fictions are tax loopholes.
  • There are 'unusually attractive' prices for promising companies, says Ron Baron
    Dollar-cost-averaging makes sense. But "averaging down" just HURTS.
    A matter of perspective. I generally associate “buying down” with chasing after a single holding (fund or stock) as it drops. That‘s dangerous.
    “Rebalancing” IMHO is good practice in both rising and falling markets. In the first instance it causes you to sell things that have appreciated recently, locking in those gains. In the second instance it forces you to buy whatever hasn’t been working lately and is likely better priced. This only works, however, if you adhere to a well defined portfolio model with target ranges for all your various investments and well thought out in advance. Makes buy and sell decisions a lot easier. And, needless to say, it only works if you’re comfortable with the types of investments you’ve chosen for your model portfolio in the first case.
  • Is Berkshire more like a Mutual Fund than a stock?
    Thanks, @yogibearbull.
    If BHE redeemed his stock, then it is a taxable transaction to him. If he wanted a tax-free transaction, then they would have structured it as an exchange of BRK stock for his BHE stock. With BRK stock, he probably can get market returns but not much more in the long run. If he really wanted to cash out to invest elsewhere (e.g., good opportunities coming up in venture capital space), it is better to just take the redemption route.
  • VettaFi
    @Crash, ETFdb has been my go-to site for ETFs for years and I noticed a new look and layout only today, 8/29/22 (but not a few days ago when I checked it also) although formally, all this happened in May 2022. Then I got to the bottom of this and that may be too much info for most. Anyway, more explanations follows.
    This is an important fund industry (CEFs, OEFs, ETFs) news related to consolidation on 2 fronts.
    1. ETF Data & Education. ETFdb (2009- ) is a comprehensive, go-to resource for ETFs. Sister ETFTrend (2005- ) focuses on ETF news, developments and education. ETFdb acquired ETFTrend in 2019.
    2. ETF Indexers. Alerian (2004- ) provides indexes for MLP and energy funds. S-Network (1997- ) provides indexes for smart-beta, sector thematic, alternatives and ESG funds. Alerian acquired S-Network in 2020.
    Now all of these belong to VettaFi. It is possible/likely that all will retain their identity and names in some form, but their URLs may change eventually. VettFi is a coined/made-up name, and its executives may decide on a unified rebranding at some point (or not).
    Thanks, @yogibearbull. Extremely detailed and useful! :)
  • VettaFi
    @Crash, ETFdb has been my go-to site for ETFs for years and I noticed a new look and layout only today, 8/29/22 (but not a few days ago when I checked it also) although formally, all this happened in May 2022. Then I got to the bottom of this and that may be too much info for most. Anyway, more explanations follows.
    This is an important fund industry (CEFs, OEFs, ETFs) news related to consolidation on 2 fronts.
    1. ETF Data & Education. ETFdb (2009- ) is a comprehensive, go-to resource for ETFs. Sister ETFTrend (2005- ) focuses on ETF news, developments and education. ETFdb acquired ETFTrend in 2019.
    2. ETF Indexers. Alerian (2004- ) provides indexes for MLP and energy funds. S-Network (1997- ) provides indexes for smart-beta, sector thematic, alternatives and ESG funds. Alerian acquired S-Network in 2020.
    Now all of these belong to VettaFi. It is possible/likely that all will retain their identity and names in some form, but their URLs may change eventually. VettFi is a coined/made-up name, and its executives may decide on a unified rebranding at some point (or not).
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    Young Giroux (only 31), a capital goods analyst (who had won an industry award for analysts) but without any prior fund management experience, and without much overlap with the previous managers of PRWCX, was given the responsibility for a major fund like PRWCX in 2006. Price obviously saw the potential, but it took time for others to realize that. Amazingly, Giroux has delivered SP500 like returns with only 60-70% equity exposure (but he takes more credit risks with his bonds); screenshot shows period 1/1/2006-now. So, it isn’t a conventional moderate-allocation fund, but a capital appreciation fund that seeks higher returns than its nominal equity exposure.
    image
  • Technical question? Or "Other Investing" question? I dunno
    I'm looking at this chart very simplistically (i.e. just the technicals) and I have have done zero point diddly fundamental analysis of the stock or company. The price seems to sit right where it was in June 2020. It nearly doubled from there by August of 2021 but has since retraced all of that gain and appears as though it wants to continue to advance to the rear. I mean it's barely trying to break the trend. The technical chart at StockCharts.com confirms this with a low RSI, trading far below it's 200dMA. It's also trading below its 50dMA and money is flowing out of the stock (CMF = Chaikin Money Flow). So 'technically' it's not a good time to be buying and I wouldn't consider investing until these indicators show signs of moving up (i.e. reversing).
    Having said that something 'fundamentally' could lead analysts to say it's worth your money and interest but you couldn't prove it by what the chart is technically indicating.
    Which is better?
  • Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
    I am little concerned w USA jobs market/ data Feds plans, recessions, uncontrolled inflation....
    I am more concerned w other parts of world - EU USSR and especially CHINA economy -housing bubble [??Lehman brothers 2.0) -c19 frequent recurrent Locks Downs -recession surely pull all of us down/sink whole global economy
    If that the case sp500 head toward 2900 Triple dip [april 2020, early 2022, and late 2022-2023)
    Sp500 severe resistance near below 3900 if breaks ...waterfall
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    here's one i recall investigating in 2020 at the worst of the covid business. they did not get wifey's 403b rollover money because they simply took too long to even send the requested paperwork. that fund was flying high. looks like it's had a hard fall. still above the benchmarks, though. crazy-high p/e in the portfolio.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vlaax/quote
    anyhow, BRUFX ended up with the rollover money.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/brufx/quote