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+1. The funds Will mentioned have considerably better Sharpes and up-down capture than RSIVX. (It's in the same overall credit-risk category (~B) as those other funds, so it's an entirely appropriate comparison.)RSIVX has struggled this year, that's for sure. I see other funds as better alternatives for total return, such as DLINX, ASHDX and OSTIX.
I was just checking their respective holdings on *M and you are right: OSTIX holds a bit more lower-rated junk bonds than ASDHX. At last check, OSTIX had about 37% of its portfolio rated below B, whereas ASDHX had about 8% rated below B.Taxable account. What I use it for is basically the expectation I mentioned. I keep a range of credit-risky FI in what I think of as a separate sleeve in the portfolio, and ASHDX is a lower duration/higher quality (and therefore presumably less risky) piece of that sleeve. In the past I've used other funds (e.g., OSTIX, RSIVX) to fill the short & junky role.
I'm another fan of the Baird Funds, but I'd say the main difference between BSBIX and FPNIX is that the disastrous year of 2008 saw BSBIX lose 1.79% while FPNIX managed a gain of 4.31%. That would probably be something of a worst case scenario for BSBIX in a comparison with FPNIX. Otherwise, BSBIX seems to pretty consistently outperform FPNIX by a small margin.FPNIX is IMHO a unique fund, one managed for preservation (using a wide variety of strategies and derivatives defensively), as contrasted with a fairly vanilla (albeit well managed) short term bond fund.
Different paths to the same end. As you note, performance is very similar after expenses. Which suggests that the modest incremental cost of the more wide ranging fund has been paying for itself, even in a pretty constant low interest environment. When the markets shift sooner or later, I expect its defensive strategies to show their mettle.
If one just looks at average figures (which, especially in the case of FPNIX I feel do not tell the whole story), one is getting double the SEC yield and duration that's only 3/4 as long (1/2 year shorter) in exchange for diving into some junk. (Though nearly 70% of the fund's bonds are AAA rated - more than BSBIX's AAA, AA, and A combined.)
I'm a fan of Baird funds, so I'm not knocking BSBIX. Rather, I'm addressing what is different about FPNIX.
The article goes on to express concern that holding elevated cash levels is a poor response since panicked withdrawals could quickly exhaust even an elevated cash stash (see 'Total Return Fund, PIMCO" for details), leaving managers "out of both cash and choices." The better solution, they argue, is building "organic liquidity" into the portfolio. Which, I believe, is what Mr. Sherman has done.A liquidity drought in the bond space is a real concern if the Fed starts raising rates, but as the Fed pushes off the expected date of its first hike, some managers may be losing sight of that danger. That’s according to Fed officials, who argue that if a rate hike catches too many managers off their feet, the least they can expect is a taper tantrum similar to 2013, reports Reuters. The worst-case-scenario is a full-blown liquidity crisis.
Let me second AndyJ on this. I think Foster has it exactly right: It would be wonderful to get the future Macro environment right, but the unfortunate fact is that nobody can. Better to concentrate on something you might be able to judge with some accuracy, i.e., a company's fundamentals over the next couple of years (maybe 5 years tops in my view).Great call; missed it but caught the mp3 yesterday. I thought AF's explanation of how security picking and macro interact in the Seafarer process was about the most detailed and illuminating I've heard from any manager.
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