Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
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MikeM
I know you are not a fan of his, Mona (understatement :) )
Another Bills fan!!! Junkster just sent me a note saying the same. GO BILLS! They will be right down the road from me when training camp starts next week at St. John Fisher College. But tickets sold out in hours, so I won't be going. Are you from the area, Western NY?
@FD100, but what the idea is is to stay invested in a diversified balanced portfolio through the good years and exit automatically when a black swan event unexpectedly pushes you into some place you don't want to be, 20-25% loss. I don't think many …
Thanks @sma3 and @BenWP for the input. I have seen where individual stocks and maybe even specific indexes open with a big spike down but adjust a bit higher after. I wouldn't expect to see huge opening falls with a diversified portfolio of index fu…
I agree with you guys, @Shostakovich and @expatsp. The memo is quite clear on Marks' thoughts. That is what is to be learned whether you agree or not, but he was clear with his beliefs and path forward. If not clear to some it probably means they di…
@rono, so scarcity in physical bullion adds risk to ETFs like GLD and IAU. Am I connecting the dots correctly with this latest and earlier posts. Sorry for my naivety.
Thanks @davfor. Good read. I guess it all hinges on this statement with the word "try" being very important here, ...as policymakers and monetary authorities try to prevent a recession turning into a lasting depression.
Hi @catch22. Good perspective. You are probably right. My largest bond holding coming into this... IOFAX. Obviously in retrospect not a core bond holding like FTBFX. You've given me reason to think further. I do wonder after the FED crutch is taken …
@Charles, was this all a dream? I'm with you, unbelievable. And I still can't believe a V shape recovery - nope. The growth rate of the virus may be slowing, but hasn't the economic damage already been done, across the globe?
FWIW, one of the Wealthtrack videos bee posted keeps coming back to me about bonds. The big point was this economic recession is going to have a long after effect. Because things start to stabilize with the virus does not mean the economy can flick …
I don't have a dog in the fight, but I did take a quick look at upside/downside capture ratios for DODFX on M* and they are terrible for 3, 5 and 10 years. T
It is well know that large cap is the hardest category for a fund manager to "beat" the in…
why are you posting this?
What am I missing? I thought the article made some good points about bonds, cash and risk during a major black swan event like this. Always good to keep repeating I think.
Hi @Bitzer. No worries on a hard time. I'm looking for my thoughts to be challenged :) and I appreciate all feedback. But what you said is exactly my point for possibly picking up a L/S fund now. "BTAL clobbered VTI in 2018, 2020". My crystal ball s…
He previously ran cash-heavy portfolios with an Aston River Road fund ARIVX and at Intrepid Capital.
'Nuff said in my opinion. ARIVX didn't work. Hopefully he puts that money to work wisely. But isn't everything value now? Maybe more value a month …
Yes @BenWP, your comment in the other thread along with rono's comments about gold-paper are what got me thinking about this move. I also have a gut feeling this down turn will be here to stay for quite some time with more potential downside than up…
@fundfun, I'm not seeing in the Doubleline fund description any where the special bond sauce is the Doublelne low duration fund.
I'm pushing back here because you said that Doubleline does a good job explaining how this fund works. Based on that y…
Thanks @rono. From your post and the article you attached, holding IAU, as I do, may hold more risk than reward. Equities and then bonds... who needs another shoe to fall on their head?
It may be smart to take my paper-gold profits and watch the s…
Thank you @bee. some takeaways from this one:
Appropriate to sell stock here.
Riskiest market since the late 20's.
Long term different for everyone than 2008 (obvious 12 years later).
Interest rates have been low because the economy is slow.
Corp…
Thanks for stopping in again @PBKCM. I would like to read the commentaries. It's been so long I've forgotten and maybe I will get my answer from the commentaries, but what keeps the risk level of your fund so low?
I think the Doubleline website does a good job of explaining how it works, but I wonder how many people did proper research on it.
Proper research? @fundfun, it is pretty hard to research how a fund may perform in a bear market if it's never been in…
But @bee, isn't that what the Defense Production Act is there for? To mobilize industry to change there manufacturing output if needed in wartime or crisis? Seems like the path was there but a path not followed. I could be wrong but that was my perc…
I sold it on 3/26 and split the proceeds on the same day between adding to current position AKREX and opening a new position in YAFFX. I prefer funds that protect the down side. I thought this one might do that but results proved me wrong. Take a lo…
I keep thinking about the blind obedience attitude our society had during the 60's and early 70's during Vietnam. It was unpatriotic to question political decisions that wasted so much youth and prolonged a war that history shows was led by politica…
Sounds on the surface like sell low - buy high.
Yes, I drank the muni bond koolaid at the start of the year too. NHMAX has done worst than GHYAX. Munis were suppose to be one of the better-safer bond performers.
Oh well, I'll just remain a deer …
Published: April 2, 2020 at 5:27 p.m. ET
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/captain-of-coronavirus-stricken-aircraft-carrier-relieved-of-command-2020-04-02?mod=mw_latestnews
WASHINGTON — Navy leaders have relieved the captain of a U.S. aircraft car…
+1 @Mona. Despite evidence to the contrary, skeet believes his president when he says "no I do not take 'any' blame... I did nothing wrong". Blinders on...
Yes, I agree with what @mcmarasco said about the funds "financial" holding being Visa and MasterCard, 2 great long term holdings. If you look up those stocks you will see they are categorized as IT, not financial.
As far as manager succession John…
I share your fear @Charles. I want to treat this as a typical bear market that will come back in some historically defined amount of time, but in the back of my mind I know this is unprecedented. It feels like possibly the only thing that comes clos…
Right on @Dalemn. I did the same. My mistake was owning a fund because of a great trend line and low volatility. That apparently was meaningless. Maybe smarter people than me understood the risks, but I didn't.
Per the tsunami reference, you could argue that the market is forward looking and earning drops and unemployment were priced into stock prices in the 1st tsunami wave of this. If some how encouraging news emerged that showed light at the end of the …
@Old_Joe, not sure if this is what you want, but you can link external accounts to Schwab so that the holdings show up in the Schwab account summary. I have my TRP 401k funds listed in my Schwab account summary.
I have not seen that you can view a…
I'm still in also. What I learned about myself recently is that I can tolerate a 40% drop in a stock I hold, but an equivalent drop in a bond fund makes me retch. IOFAX has not recovered, but ORNAX has rebounded in the last two days.
I totally agree…
...absence of high-quality holdings to provide liquidity should have raised concerns for any investor.
The fund’s chart-topping returns in recent years... should have also raised questions...
What a bunch of crap. Did this author write a similar sto…
