Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
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MikeM
I know you are not a fan of his, Mona (understatement :) )
Another Bills fan!!! Junkster just sent me a note saying the same. GO BILLS! They will be right down the road from me when training camp starts next week at St. John Fisher College. But tickets sold out in hours, so I won't be going. Are you from the area, Western NY?
I'll go with an ETF that did well for me last year and I see doing well again this year with rising rates and if energy continues to make up years of poor performance. Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund - DBC.
Is it the view of @MikeM that the very investor who designed the portfolio to begin with is somehow engaging in risky or foolish behavior to alter, modify or embellish his original plan based on new information or perhaps a different “playing field”…
@yogibearbull, I think you have a very narrow view of what market timing is, 100% in or out. That is not what this interview with Barry Ritholtz is about at all. It's about the person who reacts to current news, thinking they can time-tweak their ho…
And the average investor will generally give reasons why their moves are needed - not like those other average investor's. Let's be honest, we all think we can make tactical adjustments, tweaks or major moves. We are for the most part mistaken over …
Sounds like an acknowledgment by D&C that the typical 60:40 equity:bonds portfolio just isn't going to cut it anymore. They may be having PRWCX envie, maybe?
Here is an interview with David Giroux from last July that was posted here by poster …
Seems to be playing out that the important concept for this fund strategy is the valuation-equity exposure concept that is most important to returns more than the actual % equity exposure itself. I guess 'buy low' 'sell high' seems to work! Who knew…
@JonGaltIII, since you brought it up, I think you may be over analyzing. Just a question, why are you stressing over having "the best fund(s)" when there are absolutely no guarantees that the statistics will look the same next year or the year after…
I looked at HSTRX a while back but the TF kept me away also. At the time I researched I never found anything quite like it. PRPFX might have been the closest.
FWIW, not the same at all but I took a stake in DBC (Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking …
Good morning @hank. I was kind of using PRWCX as an example of the simplicity and the decent return you get by just owning a good or a few good balanced funds and holding them for a long time. That always seemed to be your style and over the years I…
I have to ask, how many of us have YTD returns in our portfolios of 17-18%? I do not.
Some times I have to laugh at myself for thinking I can do better than these balanced funds by making my "strategic" selections. I can't. I would have been bette…
If this money is for retirement and not for a home or family in the next 10 years, the Roth is the best idea hands down.
I think if I was starting out and had 1 investment to start with, I would just buy QQQ and don't worry about diversification a…
@hank, love the balance of forces image. You have some interesting physics concepts gong on there. Takes me back to the many college physics courses I had. I also like your input on TMSRX. I did purchase that fund as a bond alternative but maybe exp…
First, it doesn’t anticipate market moves but responds after the fact - I do that on my own.
@Level5, I would say the fund acts contrary to this statement. Market valuations go up, it sheds equity. Valuations go down it buys. Buy low, sell high. Ant…
Well, that red didn't last to long. S&P 500 up 3.2% from it's Monday low. Russel 2000 up 4.8% from it's low. Everything is above Mondays open.
Santa Clause rally?
I agree with AndyJ. I think it's positioned for a equity drop right now. I took a little from TMSRX and distributed to CTFAX and JHQAX last week. Working on getting each about the same weight in the portfolio.
I dislike making a buy ,watching it rise , only to be able to get out with a few bucks of profit after a stead decline !!
HOT money , not for me, Derf
@Derf, I'm not understanding your comments. Can you explain what you mean?
Good point BaluBalu. It's like, why even bother opening this fund if you're already capacity-constrained in other funds. Good boutique fund company, but the apparent overlap in all their funds is concerning to me. It reminds me a little of what Royc…
Thanks @Fred495. Am I wrong to think then that the smoothest ride, least variability, would be to own all 3 funds so that there is a continuous monthly purchase of 3-month options? Almost like maintaining a CD ladder. As you stated, the risk return …
I've enjoyed the discussion on JHQAX by all, charts, analysis and opinions. All information added makes me even more satisfied that I own the fund. Comparing one alternative fund to another is very difficult since fund A and fund B's alt methods are…
My expectation for MFO members is that alternative funds are not necessarily a bright spot for money over the years. AND if one doesn't hold at least 10% of a portfolio in an alternative fund, any gain or loss is noise; and of little benefit to the …
I've owned the fund since March. There was a lot of talk about alternative funds at the start of 2021. The discussion in part was what might take the place of bond funds moving forward. That is where I first heard of it. Also mentioned at the time w…
I can't read Mark's article, need a subscription.
@sma3, what do you mean by this comment:
It is pretty sad when your bonds and bond funds loose money all year but the alternative for bear market protection- cash- is worse.
Why is cash, that may h…
I've been following this post with interest. I don't use Quicken, but I did have a problem with an external account linked to Schwab, my 401k with TRP. I view my TRP account through Schwab because it makes it easier to see everything together on one…
@Derf, enjoy your turkey dinner and side of football today - Go Bills!
To your post, I'm re-reading the funds strategy and it hasn't changed. The strategy and the fact it comes from TRP ( my bias also like hank said) is why I will hold it long term…
I think SC's are good to hold in a diversified portfolio, even for retirees. To me what is important is how volatile the sum of all your holding are. Not 1 holding specifically. In my opinion, yes it would be good to have small caps going forward. I…
+1 @Crash. The "Best-laid plans" phrase comes to mind when I hear an idea that has to extend for many years of due diligence to be successful. I know I don't have that mental stamina.
@yogibearbull, that is how they got me to subscribe originally. $1 a month for I think 3 months(?) Can't remember exactly. I'm not sorry I subscribed. I enjoy both the newspaper with my coffee on weekends and the web articles any time.
What you said about your Kindle subscription is interesting to me @hank. When I noticed the weekly paper was $5 I sent Barron's an email asking why I pay $30/month. The $30 does include paper delivered each Saturday morning and a site web account. M…
FWIW, I am bond-illiterate I admit. With this I've pretty much eliminated all categorized bond funds from my self-managed portfolio. My balanced and some alternative type funds of course carry their load of fixed income and I'm fine with that. I st…
I didn't see in the article what inflation factor is used in these predictions. Did I miss it?
Grantham has been doing this so long there are now reality checks for those predictions. I found this one from 2018 where on Dec. 31, 2010 this 7 year pr…
... if I died tomorrow my estate is worth $200K more taking SS...
If I died tomorrow... I don't care what decision I made.
All I would say is such intricate plans are rarely followed over such a long stretch of time. Some might be disciplined enoug…
