Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
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davfor
Thanks. She is well now and back to her daily volunteering.....
Here is an article that discusses factors that may need to be considered to properly interpret this indicator today.
Why Is The Buffett Indicator Less Meaningful Now?
The first argument is that the current Buffett Indicator reading includes the ve…
My portfolio is similar to a traditional 60/40 portfolio at about 55/35/10 (short term & other). No plans to change course anytime soon. Four funds somewhat fit the traditional 60/40 mould: BTBFX, JABAX, RPGAX, and VLAAX (Fido will not let me…
Corralling political speech in a corner of the site that would require an affirmative request to view still seems to be a good middle ground to try out. (Off-Topic could be renamed Off-Topic, No Politics)
yeah
“The regulatory environment next year is going to be brutal for these [six] companies."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/08/19/tech-stocks-markets/
I hope so.
And I don't read the Bezos Post.
A Magnificent Six replay of the Ni…
...on a site devoted to one topic it is distracting to have another one bombard it even though the two topics--investing and politics--absolutely intersect in very important ways in my view, and to pretend that they don't is certainly a lie of omiss…
FWIW.....
There are many people who prefer to live away from the major metropolitan areas. It depends on their priorities. A representative sample of people from Laramine, Wyoming will undoubtedly have a somewhat different set of core values than…
Inflation seems like a plausible outcome. Loose fiscal policy (MMT in action over time in many developed countries) combined with central bank largess may well eventually cause the inflation rate to increase substantially in a sustained manner.
Part of the solution for 2020....
https://apnews.com/41706cd2f7b03452d0bfb9efca3e76e3?utm_source=piano&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=morningwire&pnespid=1O5n8.VHC1GNvJVbDdUvIiEJIYn3IcwJ0Y5L74Yy
The Goldwater Institute analysis suggests taking cost of living into account may be relevant when evaluating at least 3 red state vs blue state factors looked at by Georgetown.
Regarding median household income comparisons, the Goldwater Institut…
Interesting. It would be helpful if cost of living differences were factored into their analysis. An analysis by the Goldwater Institute looks at this issue. Here is an excerpt that hints at how incorporating this factor into the analysis may imp…
Sigh. It seems needlessly sophomoric (divisive) to label states as smartest or dumbest based solely on the percent of the population with a Bachelor's degrees. Better just to stick to labels such as Most Formal Education and Least Formal Education.
The change in the skewing within the middle class looks to me to be a positive development.
Three quick thoughts emerged from my morning walk:
1. It is encouraging the "real" incomes of Americans have in general increased through recent decades.
…
@Crash The memorial is impressive. Several decades ago I walked through the Commons near it almost daily on route from a small apartment on Joy St. (on Beacon Hill) to the Federal Reserve Bank where I was employed at the time.
https://en.wikipedi…
@Crash It sounds like Oahu's rail line project is trying to give Boston's Big Dig a run for the money. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Dig ) Oregon not long ago had what for it was a record breaking boondogle project on a short stretch of h…
https://www.khon2.com/coronavirus/whistleblower-says-doh-lying-about-number-of-contact-tracers/
I hope Gabbard gets her Congressional investigation if there really was $50 million provided for contact tracing and testing. Some level of accountabili…
I agree but the solution should never be only Government it should be a combo of Gov+the private sector developing programs for jobs that are needed in the work place.
Yes...partnership makes sense.
Hawaii: headline today, featured on KHON2 website: https://www.khon2.com/coronavirus/lt-gov-recommends-shutting-down-for-two-weeks/
The Lt. Gov. wants to shut down again, for 2 weeks. (05 Aug '20.)
It looks like all the islands are getting hit hard…
Trump is not going to change before election day. What makes sense is for states to implement programs and procedures to maximize the chance that their election processes are up to the challenge.
The Postal Service has warned states that it may not…
Jobs gone forever, yep.
.....Basically, the gap will increase and create more problems
Yes. This all seems probable. Which just makes it more important to implement programs that will assist those who have been displaced to transition to a new…
Interesting background info about Kamala Harris. It sounds like she probably has a broad-minded religious perspective.
She was raised on Hinduism and Christianity.
Her name, Kamala, means “lotus” in Sanskrit, and is another name for the Hindu godd…
New Jersey just announced it will use a hybrid system. Ballots will be mailed to voters. They can either return them by mail or drop them off at secure drop boxes. This system provides a work around to potential problems with USPS. Oregon, where…
This article discusses some of what needs our attention during the transformation in the economy now underway.
Jobs are fully back for the highest wage earners, but fewer than half the jobs lost this spring have returned for those making less than $…
@hank Have you tried Walmart early in the morning. I get there about 7 AM and almost have the store to myself. Same for other stores at that time of day....(Since I usually get up between 4 and 5 that really isn't very early for me.)
Any fund that dropped more than 2-3% YTD is not cash sub and why I like ICSH, JPST. These too had much lower volatility in other years.
Agree. RPHYX also makes sense to me....
Did a little rebalancing among funds this week. Reduced stock allocation from 57% to 55% (the balance point for stocks set at the start of the year). Reestablished position in JABAX. A little concerned about stocks going into late summer/early fa…
@WABAC Thanks for the dinky linky. This article provides a good discussion regarding how CLOs are structured. It also lays out a scenario in which banking sector investment choices could potentially put our financial system at risk of major disru…
@msf A quick thought about your corporate landlord comment.
There are perhaps a couple of scenarios looking forward. The base case appears to be that an additional significant stimulus package will emerge from current negotiations. In that case,…
@msf I managed a portfolio of single family home loans in three counties in NW Oregon in the late '70's and early '80's. We literally had a depression there with 20%+ unemployment due to the timber industry grinding to a halt in one of those count…
@msf Thanks for digging into this. I focused on the 7/15 report because that was referenced in the article. There is a lot of hardship going around right now. So, it's clear there are many in danger of not being able to pay their rent. But, if …
That 40% number is definitely eye catching.
Here is some Household Pulse Data for the 7/15/20 reporting date. It appears this table involves self reported confidence estimates made by repondants. About 32% reported no confidence or slight confid…
It appears I am almost 20 times safer being here in small town Western Oregon than I would currently be at my old address in gulf coast Florida! One thought...studies indicate people may continue to test positive for a period of weeks after they st…
FWIW....
Reading through some of these comments reminds me of the total return formula Jack Boogle often discussed:
TOTAL RETURN = INITIAL DIVIDEND YIELD + EARNINGS GROWTH OVER THE TIME PERIOD + SPECULATIVE RETURN (CHANGE IN P/E RATIO OVER THE TIM…
