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davfor
Thanks. She is well now and back to her daily volunteering.....
We seem to be stuck in a low interest rate world where the weak get to survive to fight another day. And the Fed seems to be ready to provide some more help. Maybe some of the cracks in the dam in this strange new world get brushed aside because t…
In Trump World many things are possible. Another option that may be open to him is to decide that "great progress" has been made in negotiations and then to declare a truce. Additional negotiating could then conveniently extend until after the el…
FWIW.....It's my hunch the stock market currently thinks that (a) the Fed will do what it can to try to prolong the current economic expansion and that (b) Trump will claim victories and move on as needed in his international economic battles to try…
@hank
Today's edition of a daily email from TheBulwark provides a simple and amusing explanation:
George Will has a new book about conservatism… and Donald Trump’s name does not appear once. Yesterday, he explained why:
"You may notice that in my…
Will's thinking seems to be another expression of the blue/red state, urban/rural split. Having lived a few decades in each setting, my left foot is firmly set on one side of the divide and my right foot on the other. What my mind is thinking usu…
@Old_Joe I agree that Trump deserves credit for shaking things up with China. But, I also agree with Biden's assessment that he is a "divider-in-chief". Our system needed to be cleansed with a high quality "sheep dip". I just hope the brand that…
GDMZX (7.5%) and RPGAX (10%) are the two funds that use up most of the $'s in my "Mixed 2 Pot". There is also a smaller amount of BTBFX (2.5%) there. Between those three, the fit looks to be within the 50 to 70% limits. I am comfortable with all …
@Mark You are being too harsh! After all, JBS is just trying to do good by assisting struggling US farmers!...
JBS declined to comment beyond a statement it issued in January saying that, despite being foreign owned, it is “proud to partner with U…
Here is how the impact of the new round of tariffs might play out for Walmart. It sounds like prices will increase. But, by implementing supplier changes and efficiency improvements, those increases will likely be held to less than the tariff tax …
How much of the tariff induced cost increase in a product does the consumer pay? Like @JoJo26, I think it depends. If its a generic type product with unlimited non-Chinese sources and/or close substitutes, little to nothing more. If its a highly …
@catch22 You didn't. You just went further "into the weeds" than I did with my short comment. The government collects the tax (tariff) $'s. But, as you indicated, much of the "cost" of the tariffs is effectively borne by consumers by way of hi…
@Gary Its my impression the word calculus was used in the sense of "a particular method or system of calculation or reasoning". The general point I take away is the "cost" of the US tariffs ends up being borne by domestic consumers by way of higher…
Here is a little info from "Trump is taxing Americans to support farmers struggling from his trade war" that may serve to generalize a couple of the comments:
....here we see the calculus laid bare: Farmers get $8.52 billion of the $18 billion paid …
Interesting reading. Jim Cramer (of all people) wrote another piece discussing "the other side of the story" complete with short term investing ideas for people so inclined...
President Trump has decided that the U.S. simply shouldn't do business w…
@catch22 You're welcome. The article did a good job of discussing some of the main issues that need to be resolved. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Trump needs to have a strong economy going into election year. So, he is motiv…
@hank According to the Oregon Liquor Control Commission there may be at least one place where there is too much pot.....
Oregon is producing twice as much cannabis as people are using, according to a new study from the Oregon Liquor Control Commiss…
@JoJo26 Yes. Somehow my portfolio wound up with Pots instead of Buckets. Perhaps that's because I like spending some time in the kitchen. (Also, I live in Oregon where "pot" shops can be found in most shopping centers!)
After taking a bit more of a look my concern is similar to Junksters. I owned IOFIX for a little over a year in my Bond Pot but sold it a couple of days after its large mid-November one day downward repricing. That just did not set well with me fo…
Interesting read that counsels lightening up on equities before a predicted earnings recession sets in. Is this in contrast to Black Rock Chief Executive Larry Fink's pondering about a possible coming stock market melt up (see short article linked …
Interesting short read. The rally is fun while it lasts and certainly a relief after quarter four of last year. The two largest holdings in my portfolio each have about 50% in stocks with the balance in bonds and other diversifying stuff. Everyth…
In keeping with the notion there may be more bull left in the stock market, here is an update to the Wells Fargo "Animal Spirits Index" (ASI):
Although the yield curve has inverted in March, the ASI shows that economic agents are comfortable with th…
@hank Thanks for the "Golden Oldie" . It looks like the Fed is implementing at least intermediate-term updates both to its view of the economy and to the extent to which it will attempt to micro-manage it on a routine basis going forward. The Jan…
@msf Thanks. I have been invested in AKREX at Fidelity in my taxable account since 2013 (didn't want to commit the $250K needed to buy AKRIX!). I jumped through the hoops you described above before posting the question to you. It just hadn't occu…
I don't have access to the article. But....the emerging markets fund I mentioned in the recent Emerging Market Funds thread is offered by a firm that represents itself as a classic value fund shop. PZVEX invests only in stocks in the lowest "norma…
@MikeW: I sold SIVLX in December to take a tax loss and immediately replaced it with PZVEX. Its a low turnover holding as was SIVLX.
Here is a link to the latest Fact Sheet for PZVEX:
https://snl.com/Cache/1001247182.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&…
The initial asset allocation and holdings information for this new fund is now available at M*. M* has it pigeon holed as 50 to 70% equity. So far, its far short of that. The description in the prospectus had made me wonder how they came up with …
@Ted Thanks for this post. It provides a good overview of Pimco's current thinking.
Here is one takeaway. It makes good sense from my perspective:
One of Pimco’s highest conviction views across all our portfolios is to look for housing related …
Here is the inflation adjusted prediction made by John Rekenthaler. It seems to result from well reasoned, middle of the road crystal ball gazing. The buildup to the prediction is worth a look.
my stylized outlook is to accept the experts' view o…
@Old_Skeet Thanks for putting some of your punch list of issues and concerns to paper as well what your crystal ball is telling you. My year-end portfolio rebalancing is now done leaving it (per Fidelity's "x-ray") at 49% stocks, 37% bonds, 8% sho…
-4.2% overall. The EM and small cap holdings weighed on the portfolio . Those holdings were generally down 10% or more (overweight in those segments).
2019 portfolio quite similar to 2018 portfolio. A few of the holdings have changed due to some…
Interesting interview. He talks about the importance of the FANG stocks, what to look for in mid January, and how much value to place on Trump's tweets....
Its my sense this shutdown does actually amount to "something" even when viewed in isolation from other actions taken our duly elected President...Here is a list of agencies that are currently shuttered (other agencies are also impacted and pay chec…
