Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
They need to see some decent inflation before they raise rates IMO. I think the threat from deflation is far more serious than inflation right now with the labor force participation rate, median income and aging demographics.
The money they are cre…
If he predicted a crash in 2011 and it's gone up +60% since that time, imagine the fire sale when it does burst!
In all seriousness, Gundlach is one of the few talking heads that I respect and he calls trades publicly quite often, and seems to be r…
One "forecast" I believe, although I don't hold any: Cities are broke....tb
He foresees a major collapse in the municipal-bond market, beyond the declines to date, given the parlous condition of both state and local government finances. He is prepa…
Without getting too political, I certainly hope all those high schoolers and middle schoolers who are unhappy with their school lunches will remember which party likes to centralize decision making and take away personal freedom/responsibility, when…
The crazy thing about the lack of awareness on mortgage rates is I believe mortgage lenders are now required to publish your rate on your monthly statement
Some probably are, and some aren't. It depends on the fund, I suppose, as there are thousands of them.
I would venture to say that in the long run, the average person investing in a low fee index fund would trounce the average return of the folks …
Currency devaluation is nothing new obviously but this strategy has been widely endorsed and discussed in the last 7 years.
I really don't see how the EU stays together under one currency in a "race to debase" as many countries export their inflati…
One would think they would have already had a plan ready to be set into place for a Greek Exit. They have only been talking about that for the last 4 years.
The skeptic in me thinks this is more about a new market to buy government debt, than looking out for retirees. But overall, it makes pretty good sense.
With the German Bund yielding 30 basis points, I could definitely see dropping below the 1% threshold.
It would probably mean things have deteriorated here in the US.
Junkster, I tend to think that there are many relatively smart (although often uneducated) people have little or no awareness of what opportunities exist for them, outside of the world that they know.
I completely agree, and am often shocked at h…
Since the other thread turned into a military benefits debate, I'll post this here.
If you tax it more, you get less of it.
So I guess Obama wants less saving for education....
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000349105
It won't take long for the Relublicans to talking point that and it will end up being a huge mistake for Obama.
That's a non-starter with Republicans controlling both houses.
Not sure why he would even try to put that out there
The fed stopped QE3 in Sept (Oct?) and commodities have been on a downward slope ever since. Equities have also become much more volatile since the end of QE3. Is there a correlation?
That's one of the points Gundlach made yesterday
A lot of stock bulls are dismissing the drop in crude because they say it's supply driven, not demand, but I tend to think the counter point to that would be the plunge in copper is likely demand driven.
Granted it's probably more of a global sto…
Gundlach also covered this topic as something that may foretell a correction or bear market if margin debt keeps declining. Obviously that is highly correlated with stock prices, and the two are starting to diverge
Agreed. I don't like this price action. Lower top may be forming. Definitely something to watch closely, IMO, but I am more of a trader than an investor I suppose.
davidrmoran: good points, but yes, one should always stay polite.
This tax would probably actually reduce costs for people like us, by reducing the presence of high-frequency trading, which generally prevents big investors (like the actively-manag…
Derf, I think it's stocks and derivatives such as options, mutual funds, futures, etc.
Again, it's not just the 10 basis point fee, but anyone that understands how management fees can reduce your compounded return will realize how an additional tin…
Yes Scott, you're right in that Wall Street would obviously have a serious objection to this and since they are pretty well intertwined in both parties, I don't see this gaining much traction.
In fact, it's a non-starter while the Republicans con…
Interesting Bloomberg discussion on deflationary forces due to demographics....
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/bonds-signal-japanification-of-everywhere-gilbert-EjQhKORiR~GrVepu9Bx0TQ.html
"The Japanification of Everywhere"
Tampa, I really don't think of Jeff Gundlach as a doom & gloom type guy. I think he calls them like he sees them. I hold him in high regard unlike most talking head types, and in particular the doom and gloom crowd who is rarely ever right.
There might be something to the fact that tons of ex-US money is making its way here, but not just to stocks. RE, stocks, US dollar and treasuries are all climbing lately.
Japan and Europe are QE'ing. Much of that appears to be heading our way.…
Shadowstats would find a way to spin a negative -5% CPI into inflation. I think inflation isn't the problem we need to be focused on. Lack of wage growth seems to be a much bigger fish to fry, IMO.
This is why I don't get too upset with all the funny business out of the Fed. The money obviously isn't making it into circulation, and therefore isn't/won't result in high inflation.
I think we need a fair amount of stimulus, just to fight the de…
Junkster I get what you're saying about shorting stocks, commodities, etc that all have a long term inflationary bias built in, but ultimately being long bonds, is equivalent to being short yields, no.
Anyway, I would assume an ex-Goldman trader ha…
Happy holidays MFOs;
Is another black-swan or turmoil like event coming soon in 2015?
When was the last one?
Most people consider the 07/08 credit crisis a black swan event.
Andy,
At the time of writing this post, SJB is down -0.14% and JNK is down -0.65%.
That is a pretty big tracking discrepancy for two highly liquid ETF's, IMO.
I would expect a short junk bond etf to be at least in positive territory today.
Let me clarify my previous question, as I fully understand that there are ways to short junk for an institution or an ex-Goldman trader and such.
I'm just wondering if there is a reasonable way to do it for a non-finance professional.
Is there any decent way to short junk bonds? I know there are a couple of short high yield ETF's and mutual funds, but those seem to not track too well