Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
"Probably a 50% chance I'm wrong though :)"
Allow me to say with 100% confidence that you are correct!
There are just too many things in this package that was rushed through without thought to make any predictions (aside from the one above). T…
Here we go again. An article about fund fees presenting things that are usually true as if they were always true as a matter of law.
"The expense ratio includes ... the fee charged for managing the portfolio, which must be the same across all sha…
You've identified another problem I had with the column. Definitions weren't clear.
"Recent high-water mark" could be the most recent local maximum, or it could be the last global high-water mark.
Think hills and valleys. A local high water m…
"Likelihood of legislative changes to bring the tax rates back up after 2-4 years seems high."
Conversely, if one assumes there won't be any legislative changes, the tax rates will still revert in eight years (after 2025). So prognostications asi…
This leaves me with the impression of numeric legerdemain. Start by bringing up that old chestnut - decades to recover from the 1929 stock market crash to scare you, and then palm it - don't use that crash when looking at market returns. We don'…
The receiving (new) institution doesn't need to know anything other than you wanted the old place to liquidate the account and transfer the cash.
See, e.g. this Vanguard IRA transfer form (Section 4A) where almost those exact words appear. One …
@msf, you mentioned:
"$5/order once you have a position at Fidelity"
How is it possible to buy mutual funds for $5 for each trade?
... use their automated investment system and live with a lag of a day or so in getting your order filled. ($5/order o…
Gosh, and just when I was about to join the stampede of (apparently not so smart money) into TAXR.
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/37642/tax-reform-etf-is-real-ready-to-roll-taxr
Thanks, @TheShadow. I did buy CNRYX few months ago at Scottrade with a transaction fee. Scottrade mutual transaction fees are lower than Fidelity, Schwab and TDA.
FWIW, a round trip will cost you $34 at Scottrade, $50 at Fidelity, and a whopping $10…
@PRESSmUP - That's great!
It sounds like you're going to be maxing out each year. A good strategy if you expect that is to select the plan where the total premiums plus the max out of pocket is the least. I wound up getting a platinum plan tha…
A quick observation: The big increase in subsidies this year (due in part to the elimination of CSRs) can have the effect, as seen here, of reducing net premiums (after subsidies) of non-silver plans for 2018.
There is a nasty circular reference …
Yes. Whenever you generate gains (as opposed to the fund distributing cap gains divs), the tax year is going to be determined by your trade dates.
(Well, unless you're getting mixed up in wash sales, in which case your purchase date may need a…
Random numbers don't have to average zero. You can have a random distribution around any value you want, say 11%/year returns. So a rising market can still be entirely random.
Why there's so much writing about mean regression ... they'd lose r…
A necessary condition for gambler's ruin to be valid is that there be a zero sum game. One doesn't even have to know what gambler's ruin is to know that it doesn't apply to the equities market (long term upward trend - not zero sum).
Similarly,…
Even if the dividend were payable in January, so long as it was payable to shareholders of record in Oct, Nov, or Dec, it would be taxable in 2017. See Pub 550.
https://taxmap.irs.gov/taxmap/pubs/p550-006.htm#en_us_publink100010073
If by "accounting" you mean tax purposes, the dividends belong to 2017 and will appear on your 2017 1099-DIV forms.
Year end summaries usually include dividends with pay dates before the end of the year. (I checked one of my 2016 YE statements t…
Let me suggest one other way of thinking about this ...
Suppose the market always returns -10%, 0%, 10%, 20%, or 30%, each 1/5 of the time. So on average, the market returns 10%.
If the market is truly random like the toss of a die, then each y…
Here's the "simple" equation, with a constant magnitude σ for the white noise (W) and a constant tendency to regress (r):
X' (t) =−r(X (t) − l ) + σ W' (t)
(I've substituted prime notation for derivative, because the conventional dot notation for …
Yes, but what does it mean that the magnitude of perturbing noise is non-constant?
Looking at section 3 of the paper (where the constant magnitude σ is replaced by a diffusion function of the current value D(X(t)), it seems that the magnitude of t…
Good Grief!! Are normal mortals expected to understand all of this and make rational decisions?
Apologies for the confusion (or no apologies, since I'm just reporting it). The short answer, which DavidR implied, is that as a consumer you just need…
MJG's graph (from here, among other places) supports the thesis that mean reversion (in the literal mathematical sense) does hold in the investing world.
The first sentence is almost right: "A reversion to the mean has to happen after a particularl…
"--- the policy is a BCBS Bronze PPO (pretty sure my recall is correct about the type)
"Pretty sure this is the plan, although this is only an overview.
https://www.bcbsm.com/index/plans/michigan-health-insurance/2018/catastrophic/premier-ppo.html"…
It's not so much about anectodes as it is about applying sound reasoning.
Anectodal information to advance a story is fine if the anecdote is representative. That's the way class action suits work - one first shows that the individuals suing are …
OJ - I agree with what you wrote, except for highlighting "required".
The ACA, which has not been repealed, continues to require everyone to have coverage (or a waiver). Only the mandate's penalty for failure to comply has been changed by "st…
Color me skeptical - whether the plan is the same plan, whether there are subsidies involved, etc. The only thing I can say for certain with the information you provided is that this is not an HSA-qualified plan (since the max out of pocket for an…
That K6 must mean that these shares are not just clean, but Klean, Klean, Klean, Klean, Klean, Klean. No artificial flavors, colors, GMO, fillers, nitrates, or trans fats. (Fidelity currently lists these shares as not for human consumption, i.e. …
"The general consensus is that Tax Year 2017 recharacterizations will be permitted."
A problem is that no one (most importantly, the IRS) is willing to say what this means. I noted the uncertainty above, and it's echoed in the Vanguard page you c…
This is the year to beef up one's donor advised fund. Because the standard deduction will be so much higher next year, far fewer people will be able to itemize. One is more likely to be able to deduct those charitable contributions this year. …
Occasionally I do try to point out that odds may work fine in the aggregate, but as an individual you only get one roll of the dice. So those high odds of success are cold comfort if you're the one whose roll comes up snake eyes.
Sometimes though…
I didn't mean to imply that I felt any of these (or other) families were like Janus.
Rather, I'm simply concerned about the possibility of building a portfolio where managers of the various funds tend to use similar strategies (perhaps as a cons…
Exactly the gut reaction I had.
I did a little bit of checking (too busy now to look further) - there are established procedures for underwriter-brokers to follow to deal with their inherent conflicts of interest. Still, even before skimming t…
Nice find.
One of the quirks of the bill that I've seen mentioned nowhere is a side effect of the alimony change on the alimony recipient. The payer will no longer be unable to deduct the payments. The flip side is that the recipient will no lo…
Whenever you read expressions like "innovative" and "sets itself apart" (here, "in that the minimum management fee goes to zero if the funds don’t outperform their benchmark"), you should be wary of hype.
Here's what M* had to say: "It's a rare [b…
That's literally correct. This was added to the conference agreement (it wasn't in the House or Senate version):
The conference agreement also provides that, in the case of an amount paid in a taxable year beginning before January 1, 2018, with re…
For most tax purposes, all traditional IRAs are lumped together into a single total. So segregating nondeductible contributions into a separate IRA doesn't simplify taxes. You're nontaxable fraction of an IRA distribution, as calculated on Form 86…
Use the SEC site. For old (semi)annual reports, do a search on form N-CSR.
Specifically:
1) Search for the fund by ticker (e.g. PRWCX) on this page:
https://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/mutualsearch.html
2) Click on the left hand side link to …
@LLJB - you identified the crux of the matter that I was trying to address: "what return do you need, what's your risk tolerance and what's your time horizon?"
ISTM that investing for income is one response to this question. People in retireme…
The only reason I see to differentiate between income (dividends) and appreciation is sequence of return risk.
If you invest in a bond, you know that you will receive that same interest payment, month after month, regardless of how the price of the…
