Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
When GMO refers to 7-year forecasts, they are definitely not suggesting that this change will happen for seven years in a row. On the contrary, they are very clear that they never make short-term forecasts.
So what they are saying is that seven …
Reply to @AMatMFO:
My 401k plan provider is a smaller company, however, I took a look at the Morningstar Purchase page for HSFAX,lw and it shows it's available through a number of providers. At Schwab, for example, they says it's even available n…
Reply to @TSP_Transfer:
That's certainly a legitimate concern for some funds. However, not all FM funds restrict themselves only to investing in countries that are in the MSCI FM Index.
There is a second index which is more inclusive--the…
Reply to @AMatMFO: I asked my 401k plan provider to add HSFAX to our roster and they have just confirmed that it has been added. Even though it will be the A class of shares (HSFAX), it will be the load-waived version.
With regard to the point made about Qatar and the UAE exiting the MSCI FM index--This HSBC fund does not use that index as a reference but uses a bespoke version with includes smaller EM countries along with FMs. So, the exit of these countries wil…
I recently spoke to someone in the HSBC office in New York about their Frontier Markets fund and he made quite a compelling case. A few things I took away . . .
--Although the fund has only been open in the US since 2011, it was launched as an off…
Apart from the good information provided above, it might be worth noting that:
--TIAA Traditional cannot fall in value and guarantees a minimum annual return. In that sense, it's a good investment if you want to think of it as the "cash" or short…
Reply to @Hogan:
We agree, Hogan, that even if one outcome may be likely, other quite plausible scenarios are always possible. But at the limit, can we rule out that there might even be an "extreme candidate", a real outlier, who might lead a right…
Reply to @Hogan:
Agree with you that the Fed, like the Supreme Court, can be somewhat swayed by political pressure, even if they are effectively autonomous. But like Bernanke himself, the flavor of Fed board members is Republican and more pro-busi…
I think there's a very different way to understand these monetary issues . . .
Media love to talk about the Fed pumping money in the economy, but that's terribly misleading. If the private banks aren't lending money actively to businesses and fam…
There are two other significant issues with R&R's work.
As the Economist and others have pointed out, they committed a fundamental error of science in arguing that higher debt caused slower growth, whereas all their (misrepresented) data showed…
Well, I'm really surprised at Ted's put-down of Prag Cap. That seems so out of character.
The Pragmatic Capitalist site focuses on understanding macro trends in a non-ideological way. For anyone with an interest in using actual historical and eco…
This kind of fear might realistically arise in a country that does not control the issuance of its own currency--like Cyprus--or an American municipality that went out of control. Since the US is a currency issuer, it can never face a solvency cris…
Reply to @Maurice:
As Maurice said, it's a real disadvantage to investors when their 401k does not permit in-kind transfers. I recently was able to roll over my 401k balance to IRA's while they were still under the 401k plan provider's roof. The…
Reply to @msf:
MSF:
I know that you're making reasoned arguments, but as a whole they just don't hold any water with me. Ever since I was a child, people argued that they had better off when they were kids because prices were lower. Somehow, we…
Reply to @hank:
It sure is a good thing that personal income has risen so much faster than prices over these decades! How very fortunate we are to have such a higher standard of living than past generations.
Arnott certainly is a smart investor.
However, if you want someone who's fearful of imminent inflation, he's certainly not your man. Half his portfolio is in emerging-market stocks and bonds along with lots of other bond and income-generating in…
Good question, Mike! I'm interested in seeing the results.
I have 10% of my portfolio in PAUIX and 6% in FPACX.
There are a couple of others that I'm watching closely and waiting for a bit more history before investing. They are:
--Pimco Globa…
That's an interesting idea, kind of like mega-Tweets!
I really like David's regular Commentary reports on new funds and funds in the shadows, so I hope that this would not replace that reporting and his personal insights.
I would think it would be…
That was an excellent post, Mark. I really appreciated Lance's writing as an sober economist.
It was instructive that he underlined that our biggest macro challenge is austerity-driven fiscal policy rather than the Fed's reluctantly step up to t…
Thanks for that, Ted.
It's curious though that they titled the article to say that these funds had "nowhere to go", when in fact the article's main point is that these fund managers were simply moving into a lot of less traditional investments. …
I've been following his blog for several years and it's a gross understatement to say that's it's been a learning experience. Before I began following this, I hadn't realized how much of my thinking about the economic policy (causes of inflation, m…
Reply to @Mark:
David,
I think that Soupkitchen is right on the spot.
If he's a tax resident of Trinidad, then he needs to declare his foreign income there on his tax statement. Tax authorities normally require that you provide proof of wher…
Reply to @MaxBialystock:
Max,
I'm really surprised that you're so cynical about our lot!
Sure, there are special interests and competing forces. That's what a political process is all about. But even if the past decade has been a dismal period,…
Reply to @rono:
Well put, Rono. Those certainly are some problems that divert the political system from focusing on the needs of the majority of Americans.
Is it fair to say that Washington (and any political system) will always be dysfunctiona…
Reply to @Maurice:
I've appreciated Fund Alarm for years, and MFO more recently, because people come here to pose questions, share useful data, offer investment ideas, and help each other to make better decisions.
My response to you was posted …
Reply to @Maurice:
Maurice,
Is it fair to characterize this as a conspiracy of the few against the many? As I recall, there was some additional factors at the time companies were allowed to switch from defined benefit to defined contribution plan…
Reply to @MaxBialystock:
Hey Max,
Our discussion is getting really totally off-topic but I want to follow up with you because I think your point is important.
I hear what you're saying, but I guess I'm of two minds about this.
If we were raised…
