Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Here’s another thought =
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-a-200-surge-in-a-triple-leveraged-natural-gas-etn-can-be-a-cautionary-tale-2018-11-14
“Commodity experts are speculating that at least part of the catalyst for the rally in natural gas …
I think these 2 items are the ones that count:
6. Save and invest as much money as possible to allow you to retire on your own terms. This will be difficult because it requires giving up fancy vacations, flashy cars, and an extravagant lifestyle.
7…
“For all the market’s gyrations in the past few weeks, the S&P 500 is roughly flat this year. If we stay on script, we should expect the market to surge in November after the uncertainty of the elections is behind us.”
See this from Capital also…
I think if you knew a recession was coming in 3 months it would be too late to sell. Six months, maybe, as they say the market predicts 6 months into the future.
Maybe the cautious approach would be to lock into long bonds - not that they are pay…
“Intelligent investors bake these scenarios into their investment plan and prepare for them in advance. No matter the path stocks take from here, if you don’t have a plan in place about how to react no matter the outcome, now would be a good time to…
ER = 0.83%
From the prospectus::
“The portfolio managers may also invest opportunistically using other investments and/or strategies including, but not limited to:
· Preferred shares, including convertible …
Finally watched this - good stuff. One takeaway is that so much of public policy is pro-inflation: fiscal spending, tax cuts, tight labor market, punitive trade policy, oil sanctions. He says look to energy, materials and industrials. He points t…
See Bernstein’s website, also:
http://www.rbadvisors.com/images/pdfs/Looking_for_risk_in_all_the_wrong_places.pdf
“As we told the reporter, bear markets don’t typically occur when there is too much good news and investors are concerned the good ne…
Seems like I just read the following:
“If long-term investing were exclusively about maximizing returns, you might be right. But investing is also about minimizing risk. “. Jason Zweig
This is a worthwhile read. Thanks Ted!
I am reminded of a quote I saw years ago that went something like this: The conventional wisdom is that the only way to make money in stocks is to buy and hold - and the only way to make money in gold is throug…
Jurrien Timmer has been posting an interesting chart on Twitter that concerns EM:
https://twitter.com/timmerfidelity/status/1045381216080474120?s=21
What do they mean by “hard currency “. Is that US dollar denominated?
Michael Lewis was writing about these things over a year ago. Maybe this “rebroadcast “ is in anticipation of a book.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/07/department-of-energy-risks-michael-lewis
Seems like good advice. Note, he also says:
In general, staying the course in a broadly diversified portfolio is the best strategy when all asset classes appear overpriced. If rebalancing is required to constrain portfolio risk, consider REITs and …
I'd say Marc Faber is doubling down. Sure he's been a little wrong - since the dawn of time - but he makes up for it in confidence. Same for Peter Schiff and John Mauldin.
Faber: If I could find a way to short central banks, that is what I would …
TV is great these days! Better than ever. Know how much hi-def football I will watch this weekend? As much as I want. Or maybe some golf on the golf channel (an entire channel dedicated to golf) or cycling on BEIN or UNIVSP. Cycling is a great watc…
It may be obvious but the link is to a different article. Some of the comments are cute, such as:
You should ask yourself these three questions:
Do you have enough?
Have you had enough?
Do you have enough to do?
Jan Cullinane, author, The Single W…
I agree with you Mark. Additionally, I would think they must think rates are not going to rise while they hold these notes. I wish they had realized this, what 5 yrs ago? Interesting that M* and the like don't have any details, like maturity date,…
This 2 page summary (from the FPA website) shows the -6.3% return. Interesting that 2008 took him by surprise, the fund lost 20.6% while a 60/40 balance lost 22%.
http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/fund-fact-sheets/cre-fact-sheet-q1-2014.pdf?sfvrsn=6
Sure, its true but I think this is a simple throwaway statement. As an analogy, what if you and 5 friends make a pact using a coin that says when it is your birthday and if you hold the coin, someone else in the group will step forward and buy it f…
The first 2 are ETFs - but hey it looks like money to me.
#1 CNDA +9.78% A long way till I'm whole again
#2 IXC +5.23%
#3 FLTMX +3.35%
Rob Arnot and PAUIX received negative feedback last year (on the M* boards) but its in my top 5 YTD at +3.2%
Oh, I didn't see the link, just the "pedestrian" video.
To me the conclusions of the article are differ from the title, my take-away:
"According to the Portfolio Whiteboard Project, a group of investment managers convened to work out how they woul…
That was horrible! Painful!
And for those that have not watched yet, a total waste of time & bandwidth!
If you want to post from CNBC, how about Maria B. singing the praises of Jimmie Damon?
I found this graph informative:
http://t.ritholtz.com/bigpicture/#!/entry/year-2-in-4-year-presidential-cycle,520e459dda27f5d9d00c7d7b
Basically, the assumption is that the presidential election cycle dictates much of the market action and based on…
I would use an x-ray tool to look at your entire portfolio and then determine if that is the mix you want. While they are not always current, it is a truer picture of the stock style you own. For example, your Triton fund is 61% mid cap, 39% small …
Interesting, thks for posting.
Chk this Econtalk or more: http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2012/12/chris_anderson_2.html
from Econ talk:
"Chris Anderson, author of Makers: The New Industrial Revolution, talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about…
I'll weigh in, MJG asks:
On average, how many hours or fractions thereof per business day do you spend watching or listening to stock market reports?
My answer to the question is a firm and absolute Zero hours. - I consider these information formats…
I agree that the NPR piece on disability was very good:
"The most striking example of great long-form work is “Unfit for Work: The startling rise of disability in America,” the NPR piece on the rising tide of Americans who apply for and receive per…
Here we go!
http://www.cboe.com/data/PutCallRatio.aspx
I am a novice and don't allocate money based on this. The only dataset I have seen any predicting value in is the P/C ratio on the index as compared to the S&P 500. Let us know what you disc…
Interesting Bee, thanks for posting. How funny that the brokerage houses recommendations would be a negative indicator. But how can they be at 45% right now? The recent swing from 60 to 42 just seems like an incredible change.
Bee, Having said t…
But would a desperate state try to tax gains you made while living in their state? Especially if your contribution was made while you lived in another state.
For example, you establish a Roth IRA in New York and then retire to Kentucky. Kentucky …
Good thoughts Skeeter, thanks for the update. The zero hedge article was especially interesting, I had not heard how earnings were missing their estimates.
If I might ask - where will your 45% equity portion originate? Any overweights by sector o…
Thks for all the links Ted!
All - note the captions in the article are (currently) swapped. It is more than a little disconcerting that the editors at the NY Times could look at an orange car and label it a "special edition Bentley". What caught my…
I have some CNDA, its getting cheaper, down 10% in the past year.
Bee,
I like the energy sector also, when I bought in in 2008/09 I thought we would see a significant rebound in world energy use by now. I hold IXC, CNDA and XME. Interestingly the a…
