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I haven’t read everything above but I say cash is form of bonds. When I started investing in 1982 cash reserve funds were the high flyers. Of course conditions then were much different than they are now but still, cash reserves are ultra short bond…
Thanks Observant1. I happened on it on YouTube earlier today. Also saw Stephanie Kelton on the news but feel I need to dig deeper to really understand.
Barons says it’s going the other way: https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-investing-is-picking-up-baby-boomers-might-be-behind-it-51617893273
I wonder if Ritholtz would work with you. https://ritholtz.com/contact-2/ I picture them as low cost, hands off managers but maybe not fee only advisors.
But there is good stuff in there - admittedly you have read it before:
“Whereas valuations explain very little of returns over the next one to two years, they have explained 60-90% of subsequent returns over a 10-year time horizon,” the firm noted.…
To hopefully make those with losses feel better, I’ll go the other way. Back in 2010 I became convinced that the housing bubble/financial crash was really a gasoline price driven event and that gasoline would immediately go back to $4/gal. And in t…
It seems that markets are dropping more and more every day and it seems more is coming. Can anyone please share if any of their Mut Fund holdings are in the green lately?
Mav, you may know more about investing than me - if so I apologize for this s…
Which one is better and possibly less volatile? One thing I’ve learned (the hard way) about these funds is that you need to keep an eye on rates. If rates were to drop again, these funds will give it all back.
Just as a point of reference - seasonally adjusted jobs peaked in December 2019 at 151,919,000. There are currently only 143,148,000 SA jobs. Hold on while I check unadjusted.
Unadjusted jobs peaked at 153,095,000 they are currently 141,926,000.…
Thanks Shadow!
Sold mine - at least I made some money. When I bought in I liked the idea that they were conservative managers who invested their own money alongside mine. Just wish they had been better at it.
Guess I should have focused on some other aspect of the interview. Once again I remember one of my favorite cartoon shorts from the 1960s:
** A man who proclaims to an entertainment agent his dog can talk whereas all the dog's answers are "ruff", p…
I think you can add Leuthold, Mulenkamp, Romick & Rodrigues at FPA, The guys at Oakmark. The guy running GIM. I think Tillinghast must have great PR people - he has been flamed out.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?FLPSX,IVOO,vo
Not wrong, just early. I’d say Bernstein was recommending a sort of barbell approach, 15% less in bonds & in very short term bonds, ie cash. I assume that is what Mr Galt is getting at.
I continue to hold bonds because *evidently* I am a pes…
Here’s a good article that looks into this topic: https://humbledollar.com/2020/06/farewell-yield/
From the article:” That brings me to an idea advanced in 1989 by the late Peter Bernstein. Instead of the classic balanced portfolio with 60% stocks a…
He doesn’t really impart any wisdom. Rising rate funds, such as FFRHX are currently doing well, as is Fidelity’s multi sector FADMX. And that should only continue if rates continue to rise. The bond CEFs, such as those from PIMCO have been killing…
Here’s an interesting comparison - the price of gold vs the value of Nasdaq 100
https://theonedave.substack.com/p/gold-hardly-looks-precious-when-compared
To wit: I own 11 dedicated, actively managed stock funds. All 11 easily beat-to-blow away their bogeys. 10 of 11 do the same vs the S&P, the only one being a SCV fund that I bought last year. This scenario has been the case with my port for…
There is little accountability for stock market predictions.
Wrong predictions from individuals or firms are often forgotten in the future.
Here's a little context.
Link1
Link2
“Nearly everyone interested in common stocks wants to be told by someon…
I never listen to any predictions. As a trader I only pay attention to prices, charts and trends lately and NOW. They tell me in real time what the market is doing. In the last 10 years I was invested at 99+% of my money at 97% of the time. The k…
Along the same vein as Grantham, in this podcast, David Rosenberg thinks stocks are priced for perfection.
https://ttmygh.podbean.com/e/sthh_0109/
And here too:
https://financialpost.com/investing/david-rosenberg-life-is-not-going-back-to-normal-ev…
Picked up this link on *The Big Picture* more of the same
“ Bronte’s strategy has not changed. But we act with extra caution: keeping positions small, watching our hedges carefully, and increasing our willingness to “duck and cover” when danger lur…
Thanks for posting! It reinforces my opinions that optimism is running rampant. As I have said before - if something can’t last forever, it will eventually end.
FYI - https://decisionmoose.com/home-page is open for free viewing until January 6th. I see that his formula has made 20% this year, primarily IMO due to switching to cash in February and back out in May (didn’t nail the March 23 low).
Current C…
I hope Congressional leadership can take - at least - some action. As I understand it, 15 congressman from Michigan & Pennsylvania think the laws in their states were violated - well then, their own elections are invalid. Their seats should be…
I think an increase in individual investors was also a factor. Betting on stocks when sports weren’t available. - WSJ article, open for some reason
“ 2020 will be known as the year that individual investors dove into financial markets and doubled …
I always liked this flow chart. It shows the magnitude of the task to change the country’s energy sources. According to this, solar supplies a tiny amount of electrical generation and a minuscule (1%) of the total consumption. I’m not saying don’t…
I think he just figured it out. It’s back testing. In (limited) defense of Hussman, don’t they say that Vale Line picks great stocks but their mutual funds always sucked? Same for Martin Zweig, great insights, his CEFs, not so much.
Even though, as I read in Al Jazeera: four-fifths of UK GDP is in the financial sector. And the "deal" includes absolutely zero content about financials. So, free and easy access to the continent's financial sector will END for the UK on January 1s…
I know Hussman carries little weight but he has done studies that show much the opposite. Of course, it’s not clear what “market internals” are & also we are reminded that *In theory there is no difference between theory and practice but in prac…
Thanks all for this discussion! I hold IVIQX in this space and it has been even more disappointing than TBGVX. After reading the commentary, I am going to give them a little more time but I also am thinking about adding some more foreign, going fro…
Bumped into this article on Bogleheads. http://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php
See also, any of Dr Hussman’s stuff. —. https://www.hussmanfunds.com/content/comment/
No, I’m very serious as any body remotely spiritual can see how the demonic has invaded the Democratic Party from first slavery, then eugenics and aborting 60 million babies. Those who don’t face real deaths are as serious as Yosemite Sam and Elmer …