Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Dex,
Today, it is tough to buy a recently published investment book without encountering a chapter that seriously discusses behavioral investing. That topic has become ubiquitous with investment success because many behavioral traps are identif…
Hi Dex,
Listening does not necessarily mean doing. The listening is just one of the data collection tasks. The integration of the listening with other data sources is up to the investor. As always, the final decision is the responsibility of tha…
Hi Guys,
From Steven Fry: “It is a cliché that most clichés are true, but then like most clichés, that cliché is untrue.”
That’s a pertinent cautionary warning for professional writers like Samuelson. A Cliché can be surely overused, but they are…
Hi Catch,
I likely am the least qualified member of the MFO Board to respond to your question, but it is a stimulating subject. I trade very infrequently, do not commit much time to the various financial media, and do not even currently know the v…
H Guys,
Advocating any position to one of its extreme end points is always sure to stimulate a debate. That’s especially true if the subject matter is financial since no universal laws exist in that discipline. It all depends.
It all depends on …
Hi Guys,
Significant equity market downturns occur more frequently than most investors believe.
Of course, much of that belief depends on the threshold values defined as a significant market downslide. By common definition, a Bear market is arb…
Hi jstr,
Thank you for reading and replying to my post.
Based on both your current post, and many earlier submittals, you seem to be married to Seeking Alpha’s Market Map technical timing approach. I wish you success with your application of thei…
Hi Dex,
Thank you for your recommendations. After careful consideration I’ve decided to reject both of them.
Regardless of my age, I’m a night person so I don’t require or do an early bedtime.
Regardless of my age, my wife and I manage a far mor…
Hi Guys,
For many investors the Barron’s annual forecast is an eagerly awaited event. Barron’s assembles some of the keenest, experienced, and well paid minds on Wall Street, and reports their anticipated annual market trends and specific stock pi…
Hi vkt,
Thank you for your insider’s report on how the VC world works. Your report made its internal workings crystal clear. I was totally unfamiliar with the funding recovery pecking order in such investments.
Your posting reinforced my policy …
Hi Dex,
I am surprised by the “lamppost” quote that you attributed to John Murphy. He is a longtime committed technical analyst who has authored several fine market technical analysis books. I met him several times a few years ago, and he is a tr…
Hi Mark,
Like Ted, I too advocate a KISS policy when investing. I guess Ted is not as dumb as Clint Eastwood looks, the dubious resemblance notwithstanding. I suppose I might be wrong here but that is unlikely. But, what do I know? Please don’t…
Hi Guys,
Facts are tricky things and subject to interpretation.
What is one man’s facts is another man’s opinion. Often, the separation of fact from opinion is a conundrum, especially when the alleged “facts” are not fully documented with reasona…
Hi Guys,
I see by the firestorm of replies that my insipid post captured your attention. I thought that my comments were merely conventional, commonsense economics.
I believe that “Capitalism does not produce without purpose: it judiciously produ…
Hi Guys,
The reference article reports the obvious when you get to pick the threshold numbers. But it does so in a somewhat inflammatory manner. On the surface, it appears to be manifestly unfair. But is it so?
It was written by an agency that h…
Hi Mark,
Lots of actionable comments from other MFO members. Good stuff!
Be alert to the Gambler’s Fallacy. It is attractive but it is wrong.
The Gambler’s Fallacy is the false belief that if an outcome hasn’t happened in a number of plays, it …
Hi Guys,
Thank you both for your in-depth Exploitation exchanges. They exposed me to perspectives that were original for me. I learned something about the issue, and also something about you guys. Overall, it was an excellent set of postings.
T…
Hi vkt,
You're absolutely right that an increasing number of players shortens the odds significantly as that number grows massively. That was certainly the case for this lottery.
My example was poorly conceived. It was wrong for the point I was …
Hi Guys,
Thank you all for participating in what turned out to be an informative and fun exchange. I had doubts about the interest level before posting.
Wow! Holy Cow Batman, the outcome was spectacularly unexpected: a trifecta of winning ticket…
Hi Jerry,
Thank you for sharing your strategy approaches.
You and I are on the same page here. I too wanted to avoid number picking biases which conceivably generate multiple winners. So earlier today I allowed the computer to randomly select my…
Hi vkt,
I enjoyed your post, especially putting a fund startup spin to it. I also liked your global money balance demonstrating a positive reward if you covered the entire waterfront. Thank you.
I did consider the possibility of dual winners. N…
Hi Guys,
Maybe yes, maybe not so.
The January effect is a correlation that has not been especially prescient in the last few years. If you search hard enough some correlation will be discovered. This could be a false random success. Buyer bewar…
Hi Guys,
I agree this is not a new finding.
Superior portfolio performance is a rare commodity for individual investors, for mutual funds, for investment categories, and even for the marketplace itself. At some time, usually now rather than later…
Hi Guys,
Davidrmoran, thanks for the Index Card investing NY Times article. It prompted fond memories of Presidential candidate and financial advisor Harry Browne. He also was the founding father of what is now Michael Cuggino’s Permanent Portfo…
Hi DavidV,
Sorry for misinterpreting and missing some portions of your post. That's a frequent happening on these short exchanges. It makes for hazardous duty and often gives me pause when deciding to reply.
Unlike some exchanges, ours have been…
Hi Catch22,
I obviously made a quick assessment made solely on this current exchange. I don’t recall ever interacting with DavidV on any other submittal.
It surely is a quick judgment, and subject to error and revision. We all form quick persona…
Hi Guys,
DavidV is not a very experienced or confident investor, and the market’s shaky start this year has only operated to reinforce his qualms. Given the poor start, it’s probably helpful to review the statistics on market meltdowns. There are…
Hi DavidV,
For my one calculation I assembled a 4 equal weight portfolio of Balanced funds that I currently own and have owned in the past. I used the Visualizer site to compute an average return and standard deviation for that portfolio. I assum…
Hi DavidV,
Given your 3 to 5 year time constraint, congratulations on designing a portfolio of all 60/40 Balanced mutual funds/ETFs. I assume you populated your portfolio with low cost funds to maximize keeping market rewards for yourself during y…
Hi Guys,
The referenced article about Joe Granville recalls a dormant blast from the past.
In the early 1980s, I attended a Granville investment lecture in a downtown San Bernardino, CA auditorium. The auditorium was huge and so was the excited c…
Hi Alex,
I constructed my initial reply to your investment desires without challenging or questioning your stated objectives. Your goals and preferences are yours alone. Given your age and the steeply progressive RMD requirement, your bottomline …
Hi Alex,
Based on your advanced age, you impose a high target returns requirement, a high hurdle that gets higher each year as your RMD increases annually, on your portfolio.
I completely agree with MFOer msf with regard to scoping the problem by …
Hi Catch22,
Thank you for reading and responding to my post.
I really do believe that forecasting (especially the future according to Yogi Berra) is a terribly uphill slough. But if some error rate is acceptable, it is not an impossible assignmen…
Hi Guys,
Prolific Melody Beattie wrote: “The new year stands before us like a chapter in a book, waiting to be written. We can help write that story by setting goals”.
In the investing world we can certainly set those goals, but we are powerless…
Hi Davidrmoran,
Thank you for reading and replying to my submittal.
It appears that during our working careers we shared a very common pitfall that is endemic to our chosen industry: the Aerospace and Defense complex. Job security and stability a…
Hi InformalEconomist,
Thank you for bringing the discussion back on topic. We sure have a tendency to divert our attentions elsewhere.
Fidelity does have an impressive lineup of fund choices. I ran a quick analysis of the .10 funds mentioned in …
Hi LewisBraham,
Not only are we on the same page on this issue, we are on the same sentence. I'm not sure if that gives you comfort or causes you to pause and reconsider?
We see and hear the same facts but our interpretations often diverge. That…
Hi Guys,
Well this endless discussion has surely been surly, vituperative, and incendiary.
There has been a lot of ink and dancing around, but skirting, what is the major issue. From my perspective , the posts have focused on a secondary but st…
Hi Guys,
I sense a little creeping pessimism in some of the most recent posts here. That’s not a positive sign since pessimism is often followed by failure.
A few days ago I referenced and recommended a new book titled “Stronger”. It emphasizes …
