Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
One could make the argument that TROW is trend chasing but the private credit business is doing quite well at this time as traditional banks are in a defensive mode. See CCLFX, CELFX and CEDIX recent performance.
The 1% penalty is a joke. GOP has already secured a 3% increase in military spending which is the only thing that matters. So defacto, the GOP is more than happy to incur a 1% penalty because that is an automatic spending cut. What are the Dems smok…
McCarthy supposedly only has around 150 votes. If Dems have to produce the remaining votes to get this over the line, this is a p##s poor deal for Dems.
The manner in which McCarthy and Biden are framing this to their respective conferences tells t…
Republicans agreed to this deal primarily because of the 3% increase in military spend vs. no increase in discretionary non-military spend. No industry has a tighter hold on GOP than the MIC.
In effect Biden had to dole out a 3% bribe to protect o…
@dtconroe
Thanks for the personal story. You captured well what are the likely considerations in millions of households.
I personally don't believe it is feasible to have sequential progress. I.e. Everybody's suppertime issues get fully resolved …
Hehe, Freedom Caucus, specimens like Chip Roy and the greatest Prez of all time control a lot more of McCarthy than his ears!
McCarthy was kissing Trump's ring less than 4 weeks after J6. And this after strongly "denouncing" Trump actions on J6.
T…
I'm puzzled at the comparison between the commentary on a forum like this composed of individuals vs. the hacks on the "news" networks whose agenda isn't to actually serve objective news and commentary to the public but deliver eyeballs and $$ to th…
Democrats are losing the PR battle and the actual battle on this. Striking that a GOP House majority of 5 seats can call the shots over a Democrat controlled Senate and WH. What were the Dems smoking when they intentionally chose to not take any act…
@Riskless
10%+ can be easily chopped from discretionary defense spend with no impact at all to our military capabilities. But then how would the GOP pay for their masters in the MIC. Kissing the ring isn't sufficient payback ya know, it's just cher…
McCarthy resorting to Dems to maintain his position as Speaker might get him through this session of Congress but that would be the end of any chance of him remaining Speaker in future sessions. He could even lose his seat in the next election as Er…
The pieces are now falling into place. Biden has given a heads up that invoking the 14th(eventually) is on the table. This is basically a dare which will further harden the GOP stance making a technical default almost certain now.
The debt ceiling …
@MikeM
That is a fair point. GOP voters will blame who Fox, Tucker and the political "leaders" will direct them to blame.
So hopefully Dems do a better job in explaining it better to the masses.
I agree with the view that the optics of invoking 14th before an actual default will be much worse than doing it post default.
AOC assessment is also correct -- forget McCarthy actually knowing how many votes he has, the t**d can't even differentia…
A default will happen, the 14th will be invoked, emergency petition will be filed in SC and SC will validate the use of the 14th.
That should put a nail in the coffin of a debt ceiling law that conflicts with a constitutional amendment and return(r…
In a world where January 6 is viewed as a peaceful protest, the protesters as patriots who will be pardoned and a live TV audience that laughs when Cheeto jokes about an assault charge and conviction a debt default is a pretty abstract event for a s…
Recently I found out that the Orange Julius years produced yuuuge juicy budget surpluses. In fact the surpluses even paid for the entirety of the big and beautiful 2000 mile long and 200 foot tall wall at the border which even the Chinese were awest…
The debt kept increasing during Drumpf's time in the WH and the GOP thugs happily enabled it. The GOP didn't suddenly discover religion on debt and deficits during Biden.
This is naked politics and McCarthy does not have the cojones to take a princ…
@msf
Good post, I stand corrected. As listed towards the end of your post, no country has debt ceiling circus like the USA where the minority party can hold hostage the majority party or the party controlling the WH.
@dtconroe
No other country has a concept of debt ceiling as far as I know. The stupidity of our system is to handle budgets and debt ceiling as separate issues when they're not. Decisions and projections(or their failure thereof) embedded in the bu…
Fair enough, I meant spend and income decisions. Point was that the current game of passing budgets and then wrangling separately over whether to actually pay is stupid and needs to end.
I find it quite remarkable too that VIX is at current levels with everything going on. Methinks that VIX is being manipulated too just like rest of stock market.
Not a lawyer by a far stretch but to me, there cannot be a ceiling for debt that has already been incurred by Congress itself.
I hope this goes to the SC and the entire silly concept of debt ceiling gets busted once and for all in favor of making s…
I've lived in TX for 17 years and moved from CA. TX today is very different than what it was in 2006. I wouldn't move to TX today. This is a state full of nut jobs at every level of government. Abbott and Patrick would make Taliban proud.
TX lack o…
The time for discussions around "what can we afford and how do we pay for it" is at the time of setting the budget. Not after already incurring the expense.
The Democrat stance of no negotiation because there was none during prior debt limit raises under Trump is untenable. Past is water under the bridge, the Democrats will have to negotiate. Till then it is a game of who blinks first.
MAGAts like Gae…
Democrats will need to come to the table and negotiate. McCarthy would rather keep his job and have the US default vs. negotiating with the MAGAts.
Nothing is off limits now in this new world, I expect a default before a compromise is arrived at.
For the audience on this forum at least, I agree with stillers that these articles are kinda useless. For the very long term, passive beats active but in interim periods active can and does beat passive. Also an entirely different story and stats ca…
- I've never heard of a 1031 exchange for a MLP (does not mean it can't be done and based on a light skim I agree with you that there is no blocker) so perhaps there's not much benefit to it.
- The PIG/PAL restriction for MLP's is quite material com…
I'm comparing private CRE partnerships(LP role) to publicly traded MLP's where one is an individual investor. I suppose there are partnerships that invest in energy/pipelines but to my knowledge these are far less in number than partnerships focusse…
We'll have to agree to disagree.
I am referring to LP's in a partnership as you stated.
I have owned publicly traded MLP's that generate K1's and they're nowhere close to the depreciation that private REIT's generate.
I don't think 1031 exchanges…
I should have been more specific. The article's claim of private LLC's dying isn't true in today's world, most certainly not after the passage of the JOBS Act.
The ability of LP's in a real estate private LLC to get the benefits of depreciation tha…
The Journal of Accountancy article from 1997 isn't relevant in today's world especially after the rise of crowdfunded CRE following the JOBS Act in the 2010's.
Private CRE is not the right vehicle if liquidity is paramount but the major pro is bein…
I likely have the contra view here but this is a good time to start CRE funds. Lotsa defaults coming up in the next few months, solid opportunities to buy at 20-40% discounts.
There's news on the interwebs today that some PE/VC firms are buying bac…
GDP as a whole is a meaningless number. GDP per capita is the meaningful number.
India and China are not generally considered rich economies on a per capita basis, certainly nowhere close to GDP per capita levels of the G7.
No disagreement that Ch…
There isn't any limit actually to the number of meals in a day -- at least in the Dallas and Austin offices. Food is served pretty much all day.
Tech cos do this to incentivize staff to spend longer hours in the office. This is a pretty standard pl…
