Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
If the economy is so good, as we are told by the White House, why is the FED positioning for more rate cuts?
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/11/case-for-more-fed-rate-cuts-could-rest-on-systemic-overcount-of-jobs.html
Apparently, jobs are worse than…
Another big trump defeat in deep red Indiana!
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/11/indiana-trump-republicans-redistricting-congress.html
•The Indiana Senate voted 19-31 against a bill to redraw the state’s congressional districts to favor Republicans.
…
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/05/putins-latest-warning-to-ukraine-shows-how-unlikely-a-peace-deal-is.html
Putin shows just how much he cares what trump wants.
trump continues to kowtow.
Who recalls when trump told the world that he "believes Puti…
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/07/how-trumps-tariffs-are-crushing-small-businesses.html
•While large retailers have mostly been able to brush off President Donald Trump’s tariffs, many small businesses have been crushed by them.
•The U.S. has 36 mil…
https://www.axios.com/2025/12/10/trump-tariffs-small-business
"Small-business owners were excited for Trump 2.0. Now, tariffs and inflation are causing headaches and eroding optimism.
Why it matters: Main Street's pain is a negative for the entire…
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/08/trumps-tariff-costs-consumers-00679261
A very thorough article on prices, inflation and tariffs. Lots of good information for those who are not blinded by partisanship. Not for those who minimize and ignore,…
Tariff updates:
https://www.inc.com/kaylawebster/small-business-owners-blame-tariffs-for-cuts-to-staff-hours/91277473
"Small businesses have been forced to raise their prices to cope with tariffs, but consumers aren’t buying. Rachel Lutz, owner of…
Here's a good one for FullyDelusional1000- another triumph for those who do the work.
...
“But the idea of a threshold is a holy grail for industry, because if you can claim a threshold, then you don’t need to protect people at levels below that thr…
...
"Trump is now cornered, big time. His polls are plummeting, Voters are frustrated with his handling of affordability. He claims he deserves an 'A-plus-plus-plus-plus-plus' on the economy but most disagree. Prices continue to soar."
"Congression…
One should wonder how well maga will accept it when elected Democrats start using trump-like tactics, approved by SCOTUS, when it becomes their turn? LOL - they will be raging!
The next Democratic POTUS can now fire anyone they want from their gove…
Of course "the White House" made a lame defense. All perps make lame defenses.
The facts tell a completely different story. And anyone who knows the history of trump, is well aware that this is his way of doing business. Cutting corners, exaggerat…
TGT and CLX look interesting.
Yes, CLX does look interesting. Near a 52-wk low. 4.9% dividend yield. Wide moat and M* 5-star rating always piques my interest. This may be a good entry point.
Nvidia can now sell chips (H200) to China that are/were "National Security Threats". Clearly we do not want our mortal enemies to have them.
But wait, if the government gets its beak wet (say 25%) then poof, national security threat abated!
But w…
When someone gets elected on promises of affordability, then absolves responsibility for that promise, while making it worse, they need to be held responsible.
And who didn't see this coming? Massive import taxation? The only way that would make s…
High levels of margin ,,,, scapegoating the Fed
Right! The Fed scapegoating is blatant. Anyone buying into it is either dim or incapable of non-partisan thought - cultish even. The data has not supported these complaints of "late". Either they are d…
@hank I'll let you know when I read it! lol
But, the fact that you see several sides to the question is commendable. Some folks only see what they wish to, in all endeavors.
Nice summary @DrVenture. Thanks. As I noted elsewhere ... toss in $20+ a pound Starbucks coffee and a near $10 price to dry clean a shirt. These small things do add up over the course of a year. So glad we have this thread. Probably the best thing…
Just bought Italian beef from our usual source for a party. The wife keeps records and the price is exactly 25% higher since one year ago. And now there is some additional charge that never existed before. Businesses are struggling to hold down pric…
It is entirely possible that those who follow him will be less clownish and more capable of leading the country towards a vicious dictatorship. As bad as things are we should be careful of what we wish for. Today they are banning books, tomorrow the…
cassidy is pretty much responsible for rfk, assuring semblance of stem\evidence in healthcare. he now flails at sporadic reversals rather than rfk removal, dodging his own complicity.
gop core behavior.
This makes him an incompetent doctor, who sh…
[snip]
Pretty funny. Biden was in obvious decline, yet I never heard any Democrats call for his removal
or even acknowledge it while he was serving. The partisan hostility is so strong that I’m sure
they’d treat any other GOP leader the same way; ac…
...
Trump insisted yesterday that 'affordability doesn’t mean anything to anybody,' but most Americans would disagree.
...
A "Let them eat cake" moment for certain. From a fellow who ran on "affordability". A complete bait and switch.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/04/layoff-announcements-this-year-top-1point1-million-the-most-since-2020-when-pandemic-hit-challenger-says.html
Most layoffs since 2020: 1,100,000 YTD
An interesting line of reasoning from @DrVenture with thoughtful suggestions which have merit.
"I'd like to hear ideas, thoughts, even helpful criticisms. Maybe we can form some more detailed plans/ideas?"
I'm left at this point with many more que…
On the theme of torturing the data...
Typically, when the S&P 500 has effectively doubled (or nearly doubled) in a 3-year window, the subsequent 12 months are often a "hangover" period.
In 6 out of the 7 historical cases, the market either cras…
With +25% S&P gains for 2023 and 2024, and a +16% 2025 YTD, an average gain of 22.9% (or higher) for 2026 EOY?
Interesting. When was the last 4-yr period of 90% S&P gains? Never mind the higher Nasdaq gains?
