Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
If we are in a bubble, then what could possibly pop it? Stocks bounced back after the tariff fiasco. "Resilient" markets, we call them.
The one rule that sticks in my mind is that the markets will never drop when you would most expect them to…
@Sven, since nobody else really showed up at the parade, a few soldiers could have done that and it's possible we'd never know!
The possibility of stagflation looms on the horizon, and the Fed must remain vigilant. Tariff talk alone has likely dam…
Wonder if he requires another birthday parade next year after nobody showed to this one. Seems like $45M wasted, plus one slightly deflated ego. A big yawn.
And no, he isn't getting any Nobel peace prizes. Iran is just the next diversion for Du…
Somewhat off-topic, but there seems to be some selective price gouging going on out there. BoarsHead cold cuts should not be ~$17/Lb, for example. But they are.
We speak with our wallets, and some of us are either doing without or cutting back. …
Just for fun...some signage from today...
"Orange lies Matter"
"Rejecting Kings since 1776"
"I've got 99 problems and Trump is all of them"
"Crush ICE, not dreams"
"They want 1939 Germany. Let's give them 1789 France."
Mostly new toeholds. I had gone to cash in March/April during the tariff disruption. The stock market tends to maintain a rosey outlook regardless of circumstance, and the TACO game is playing itself out.
But Mike Tyson's famous quote, "Everyon…
Bought the following conservative outlay of funds this week designed to withstand whatever the future brings:
-PRCFX & INPFX (~50% bond allocation funds)
-FPFRX (FPA Crescent)
-PRPFX (Permanent)
-MVGAX (Global Low Vol…
Per Morningstar, its Commodities > Gold for your inflation hedge allocation. I still like Gold as a geopolitical hedge, though. It has performed well recently.
PRPFX and SGENX hold gold allocations.
Most days it seems like somebody might have taken a drill to RFK's skull - and left some serious gaps.
As for Dump, shhheeesh....he could have had a lobotomy somewhere along the line. Or maybe it's from all the partying at the back of the plane wi…
The RFK hiring as health secretary was, like most of Dump's cabinet hires, a big middle finger to Americans. Chaos is the desired path.
Where is the outrage? Should we start investing in leeches?
Govt corruption is acceptable now in the US…
"Musk’s only mistake was in underestimating the depths of Trump’s lack of principles, imagining that he was the kind of corrupt politician who stays bought, as opposed to a guy who always breaks his promises the moment it seems expedient to do so."…
Per the MSN article that @observant1 had linked earlier (my bold added):
"As of March 31, Bridgewater All Weather held 76% of its assets in U.S. and foreign government bonds, 42% in stocks, 39% in commodities, and 30% in inflation-linked Treasuries…
Investors have learned to ignore the TACO trade (traders have had their fun there).
Weighing the fundamental changes and challenges associated with new US policies is a bit more complicated.
Best of Mao and Putin, rolled into one. And I love what he's doing to the Oval Office decor.
Gold trim and self-portraits everywhere? That's not tacky at all. Nope.
A few side notes from today's BLS Employment Report:
The ratio of employed work…
Ms. Wood apparently trimmed her TSLA holding last week. TSLA was the largest ARKK holding.
Thought the Musk dust-up with Dump was all just theatre, but maybe their relationship has in fact devolved. Two supposed "Alphas" - my other reference for …
Let's be honest, most of us are not surprised to hear that the regime is manipulating publicly issued financial reports.
“Trump administration officials delayed and redacted a government forecast because it predicts an increase in the nation’s…
We tend to prepare for the worst, but the market has proven that all the current regime has to do is utter some phrase about China negotiations proceeding, or really anything that might be construed as positive....and up we go.
I mean, how easy is …
No, Crash, I didn't. But these TACOs are making me cranky, as we will continue to deal with them this summer and then some.
It has changed our basic investment strategies. Everywhere you look, pundits are espousing the virtues of global diversi…
"Staying home has worked for US investors for years but now may be time to think GLOBAL with 15-20% exposure (average now is 12%)."
So is (was) this a trade for 2025, or is this a new long-term shift in investing attitude?
US equities are no l…
The courts are gifting the man-child an exit opportunity....the chance to leave this messy Tariff rollout attempt in the dust. He would be able to pin it all on the courts.
But he doesn't have the ability to admit to himself that this isn't goin…
What parts of defrauding $30 million from community banks and tax evasion does trump not understand?
Oh, he more than understands. Grifters have to stick together!
The TACO trade - as in ‘Trump always chickens out' is the talk of Wall Street
Per Marketwatch:
"Let’s hear it for the TACO trade.
Wall Street loves a catchy acronym, and the TACO trade, coined earlier this month by Financial Times columnist Robe…
Pure gold....
"Markets trembled, then rebounded,
Stock picks swirled, confusion sounded.
No playbook clear, no path defined—
Just chaos carved from one man’s mind.
In suits and slogans, rules were bent,
With Fox & Friends as Parliament...."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-media-to-raise-25-billion-to-buy-bitcoin-142942484.html
"Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) is doubling down on cryptocurrency, unveiling plans Tuesday to create what it claims will be one of the largest b…
TruthFi
"....meme coin blending humor, politics...."
"...fun financial ecosystem."
"Whether you'r here for the memes, the movement, or the moonshot,...."
I just puked in my mouth a bit.
Peeking at PRWCX's bond holdings - the top 4 are three UST Notes (5 yr) and a UST Bond (10 yr), followed by bank debt, corporates and other HY. But it appears that the fund has stayed away from Longer term debt.
Didn't realize how many call optio…
If companies don't like their near-term earnings prospects, they can just "pull guidance". That way, all is forgiven. It's the latest fad.
Blame it all on tariff talks. It's really quite convenient - we can sweep this mess under the rug like n…
If the markets start tuning out these Tariff announcements, maybe we suffer over the next year or so and narrowly avoid a recession. The dollar has to stabilize. Our credibility has taken a hit this year. And the Fed must remain independent, or …
CNN
—
President Donald Trump said Sunday that he has agreed to delay a 50% tariff on European Union imports until July 9, the latest instance of Trump declaring an impending tariff and throwing markets into confusion only to later walk back the th…
PRPFX has worked well this year thanks to a 20% gold allocation. It's +9.65% YTD.
QMNNX - AQR Market Neutral fund has held up very nicely. Up +13.89% YTD.
Now, if only their recent performance was some kind of indicator ("guarantee") of fu…
Yes, shady crypto dealings can be hidden with distractions. Attacking Harvard every other day doesn't cut it, so there will be much more Tariff chaos to come.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/trump-bill-house-republicans-pass-what-know-rcna208488
A debt limit hike
"The bill is projected by the CBO to add $2.3 trillion to the federal deficit over 10 years, with the tax breaks and new expenditures…
