Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
i thought PPI had been debunked as being not that useful as a leading indicator?
https://www.valueplays.net/2025/09/10/industral-production-continues-to-counter-pmi/
doesn't really help things when ~40% of the nation simply follows potus\rightwing media on which innocent deaths deserve empathy.
maybe alex jones can chime in.
it gets better.
managed by tuttle, the greatest patriot that never existed, fabricated to run a financial scam.
one could fill a blackhole w/the irony lost on MAGA.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuttle_(M*A*S*H)
one of my favorite non-Flagg episod…
at least poland has redirected trump bribes to actual defense. sorry qatar, you didnt even get a lousy t-shirt.
but seriously, poland, turkey, and the nordics are not going to wait for trump nor nato if sufficiently threatended. MAD deterrence d…
of course. fund managers have interest rate strategies, no one would claim they set interest rates.
but i am searching for bond fund managers who have considered a minor fed rate cut will have trivial impact , and trump's most likely (only?) mov…
my simplistic thinking is that the flood of current, and massive untapped, private credit has dragged down the actual quality of the entire group. relative ranking may be tough to chew.
not sure the reward still exists, but ~2023 giroux pointed o…
very clever, that trump.
forcing foreign companies to bring over talent unavailable locally means continuous fodder for his ICE gestapo newly funded with $billions. (or frozen sunk capex gone towards gop infrastructure PR, ala foxconn)
there is no…
there will soon come a time when gop craze about epstein will go the way of musk. ~90% of the 'most sensitive' information has not been released, and a trickle of the trivial can go on for years.
there is an overwhelming public record of trump hangi…
musk's main error was that he did not realize the trump crime family needs continuous blatant payments and flattery. one w/out the other risks eventually becoming the 'hardly knew him guy'.
so musk's $1t comp package from tesla will go a long way…
only 2 things are certain :
a. the late august visit by the s.korean president to the whitehouse did not yield sufficient planes\bribes\gold toilets for the trump crime family.
b. when the gop has to choose between trump and damage to local jobs\e…
given self tax and wealth scenario...tax-free bonds (narrowly) escaped being targets for trump grift and chaos.
consider active bond funds as managers selecting the economically best among thousands of american infrastructure projects, many of whic…
fred walks and bs talks with yet another information-free reply.
contrast with this post from fred who :
- explains his rationale
- gives his current positioning
- estimates his likely changes
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/…
for asset alloc. obsessives who dont mind using indices for equity, i suggest the new elm etf.
they have been running sma for a while with a unique but explicit process, and recently ahead of several flows such as lessening american equity.
plus yo…
ho-chunk has no chance. trump crime family well on-board for the 2 largest event gambling marketplaces.
https://www.ccn.com/news/business/donald-trump-jr-polymarket-kalshi/
maybe they should consider donald somehow managed to go bust multiple ti…
no, i accumulated ~2% (2016-2018) and let the etf run (except trimmed some individual miners which have kept running !). this is because the data seems fuzzy where to stop, but concern not needed below 10% allocation.
plus, the gains taxes. was…
observant1,
until a decade ago, i was firmly in buffet's 'gold is a nonproductive asset' camp.
then i noticed every asset allocation backtest , no matter how simple or complex, noted the benefit of a few % of gold (low fee futures were not available…
this can only be due to nostalgia, ala rush limbaugh.
cheapskate trump wouldn't loan broke rudy a dime, but offered a 'fundraiser' for a generous cut.
as close as it gets to real friendship in MAGA world, unless billions in grift keep flowing (ask …
why not just claim 95% in iau for 2 decades?
no one believes that straight blue line...but at least it was drawn below the S&P500.
kudos if rich enough not to care, but magic timing claims are zero value add.
larryB,
this is a decades-long fracturing the sensible world will drift to even if trump keels over.
they cannot trust american voters as a whole on neither rational nor moral basis. china and india the same, although they may tick 1 of 2 irregul…
in practicality, nothing has changed nor will change.
a. this ruling is a stay, trump will rely on scotus and ignore if needed, congress continues to abandon its tariff mandate.
b. multiple other paths exist for trump to threaten\declare tariffs un…
there is an inspiring list of innovations spouted by trump to industries of all flavors, him being a unique expert in all.
my take is that AMD is more than happy for intel to be forced to act on strategic advice from trump and his anti-STEM MAGA mor…
here comes the part where wasting taxpayer money on trump's personal vendattas is somehow making $billions for MAGA.
i.e., the usual level of comprehension regarding causation\correlation.
given giroux help structure the trp org split, and heads half, i doubt he is leaving.
but that is the primary reason he has less time for individual stocks, not the 'cap app' expansion.
if one covers enough grantham material, it is clear that his experience prioritizes survival\defense over timing bubbles.
he has long since abandoned AUM as any kind of marker for his strategy; GMO is far above the minimum needed for a firm its si…
consider this an intermediate step between flogging bibles and sneakers.
the trump family has progressed to scams now in the cumulative billions, and the capital originates or either is funneled overseas, presumably beyond the reach of future DoJ.…
anyone casually familiar with the role of equity within asset allocation would know that malkiel is in the top tier of practical academics, including bill bernstein and mike mauboussin.
malkiel deserves some benefit-of-doubt, basically providing the…
although i enjoy reading marks to get re-centered, he is infuriating when it comes to practical execution.
my biggest gripe is although he has written reams on risk, he has never gone through (for the public) the hierarchy of methods for its estima…
investors were given a temp reprieve by the gop being too unmotivated to find a grift-worthy angle against munis and the like.
the environment has gotten fierce for state gov environments, as corporates look to evade taxes that help fund regional …
most quantitative information points to a fairly long life for the EU defense sector, pulling up EU economies in general. there is some fuzziness around how long certain EU military buys must continue from america to retain critical platform compat…
MAGA\Qanon are about potentially persecuting anyone not trump nor strongly supported by trump.
what is it called when you parrot trump regardless of past actions and facts? an initial job screen.
