Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
may be of use to shorts. bad fundamentals, and seems we are at least descending from a periodic peak of rightwing sentiment.
elsewhere :
'...unprofitable and their net margins are getting worse -20% in FY2022, -32% in FY2023, and -69% in the the …
american unreliability in both trade and security forces new trade alliances (japan, SK, china) that may counter trump tariffs as a group :
"...ongoing ‘global war on trade’ (GWOT), an acronym bearing a remarkable similarity to the notorious ‘Globa…
this brings back a trump 1.0 anecdote where he could not conceive\admit to a difference between knowing how a cell phone works vs knowing how to use one.
for MAGA, false confidence can overcome any amount of objective ignorance.
the genius app…
if the administration, the government majority, and the scotus majority are all taking orders from one person, then using the name seems both apt and efficient .
although longer, ya probably gonna like the nicknames even less.
old_joe,
thx for worrying about toyota (customer since 1980s).
just last year, me another team-mate were trying convince others in our sports league that tesla was a toyota wanna-be.
we failed mainly because we didnt own a new one (of either) and w…
hank, am so happy to see w/can sometimes agree here.
there are more than enough fossil patriots taking their luxury suv and superduty truck 1/2 mile for snacks. no one will force me into being one.
and no matter how good and\or cheap a car may be, …
yardeni bumped his recession educated GUESS from 20% to 35%.
for some, that may be confirmation for reaching or staying at your lowest non-zero equity allocation, and he offers paid services for advice on shuffling specific portfolios whether timel…
not just this.
sustained elevated markets are not predictors of societal collapse, but several brutal instances where they did not preclude such.
not to be confused with the normal biz cycle 'wall-of-worry' cliche.
assume any mfo investor wants to consider shorting or holding.
by the smallest extension, they may want in-person feedback by mfo takedown attendees regarding turnout, newly announced plans, etc...
is this 'on-topic' enough? dont dump on plausible…
this is MAGA-like unsafe, stupid, wasteful, counterproductive.
musk collects insurance vs. unsold new teslas plummeting in value w/no buyers in sight.
may soon cease trade-ins >20% KBB.
stop!!
be careful.
both momentum traders and musk fanboys looking to buy dips, and market will over-react to any tariffs delays\cancellations. actual tax cuts would do the same.
one experienced short seller stated look for a point where hardcore fans a…
just read a compelling analysis stating this was to preserve both a 2nd source for fighters, and to preserve a big group of critical skills/workers in a sector needed in-nation.
i.e., had lockheed been a long-failing company due to its own actions…
yep, posted in 2024, been adding to since then, hoping it remains under the radar :
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/63101/tax-free-u-s-bond-market-and-gop-control-for-2-4-years#latest
could be a bad idea anyway w/inflation..…
obviously 'everyone' is wrong.
and even though they voted for trump, are certainly trump haters for contradicting. bondi will be looking into that, using our tax dollars.
not sure giroux is more enthusiastic for bank loans than type floating rate.
but i buy into his thesis that private credit boom has resulted in bank loans getting safer than their possible rating.
yep, sentiment indicator is the marginal discretionary, not the auto-indexer flow.
however, relative to auto flows, it would be very interesting to suss out retirement plans trading out of their u.s. indexes.
WABAC,
contrarian to diversify their traditional negative total return lineup.
(ouch ! GP never provides substantial coverage into individual names to allow a real feel into their process, but outlook seems sensible. luckily i stayed away in che…
i like the change as longterm holder. disagree w/author that one should rationally choose an index in this space.
"...no reason to rush into this active fund over its index fund sibling."
speculating that vanguard finally accepted 'risk'-adj perfo…
in partial agreement, real investors should not care so much about a president that is made of misleading falsehoods and every daily pivot is some sign of genius. but nothing is booming like the MAGA excuse economy.
and regardless of self claims,…
no, i stand by my statement there nothing more useless than a single day up\down note on asset classes.
my disdain for politics is their potential negative impact on society. we know there is a very strong longterm correlation to that and local e…
nothing more useless than single-day up\down comments. the investing mantra has gone in a few months (for some) from 'turbocharged USA!!' to 'i dont know the future'.
that is either progress or retrospective reality.
straw poll indicates biz ex…
GARP is entirely about a 'sensible' slugging %.
they still err on the side of holding overvalued equity and rarely exit pre-peaks.
it meshes well when if there is also a sensible strategy in complementary asset classes.
i remain open to the presidential trope not being a perfect forecaster, since this time is congress and judiciary are complicit.
here is something more fine-grained with regards to now :
https://www.isabelnet.com/probability-of-u-s-recession-as-…
the trump bump happened in expectation of all things stimulative, none which have been enacted. (the regulation changes appear short-term cultural than economic. just take initiative for your own clean air and water.)
thus, a mkt recovery by some…
there is certainly nothing booming quite like the MAGA economic excuses sector.
it has dethroned doomsaying clickbait , wrong for 4 years, but still going strong.
WABAC, agreed, the daily\weekly\monthly market is not a reliable indicator of weighing the longterm cost to society.
however, does anyone doubt that on a whim, trump can press for any\all below and surely the markets will recover in the short-run …
for the stupid, rhyming is too complex and history fully repeats.
last time this became an Econ101 case study, showing how metal tariffs cost multiples in domestic mfg auto sales, not to mention exports.
brookfield's mark carney is leaving to become Canada's next PM and deal with trump. carney also has experience as Bank Governor for 2 nations ; this is bringing a bazooka to a pillow fight.
on top of that, the Canadian people seem pretty tired of …
is the 'trump bump' over already? this is not even month 3, why no warning by financial pundits on any left\right wing network?
what happened to supercharging the american economy and the golden age of grift? i guess the same thing that happened to …
never once has trump mentioned americans are willing buyers of all the drugs he worries is linked to some trade imbalance.
so the group he could actual impact the most, drug-consuming americans, are not humans to be treated, but part of some MAGA p…
i doubled my stake in VWALX, but it will not remain my largest tax-free holding as i continue to shift from taxable liquids. i wish wellington would explicitly state they have flexibility in going much shorter (
IAV has concluded its multi-part series on the plethora of bond choices at vanguard; highly recommend to anyone w/subscription.
regarding my discomfort with Baird due to their their penchant for charter schools, i ran across this for texas, where …
just a reminder that Marks outsized performance came from crisis periods where basically no new money was coming in voluntarily. he was using untapped but contractually committed funds.
outside of these periods, he has mediocre results.
both mark…
this has been some time in the making, as institutions have self-capped allocation for a few years now. marketing is no longer restricted to hnw clients.
lobbyists not needed, and will be faster\cheaper by giving trump & cronies their cut dire…
ran across this post on tariffs and business uncertainty; so simple AND brief that even some MAGA may be able to grok it.
https://brianlangis.wordpress.com/2025/03/04/on-tariffs/
we all know capitalism is extremely adaptable, and the shortest path…
