Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
billionaires who funded 3! rounds of trump propaganda for the uneducated masses now regrets they have no means to reverse the brainwashing.
anybody thinks trump cares?
same in mid-atlantic, but denser new homes are competitive, selling ok via builder price cuts & incentives. (builders also facing rental overbuilds)
still a jobs effect for now.
most realize it is a momentum mkt, and a short-term correction to all time highs is very much a possibility :
- being unable to extract any more donations\bribes in 1-on-1 tariff negotiations, trump gets bored and declares victory resulting in sta…
as predicted, trump now claiming to be 'china friendly' means he is full turtle mode.
only a question of how much china gains simply by demanding greater concessions based on his inability to honor a deal. but the fact china has that trait in com…
i guess you are saying warren will buy if trump tanks the shareprice? what % drop?
berkshire is already the largest holder, with no indexers even cracking 9%.
i wonder what threat trump will toss at moodys on truth social.
or to keep this on investment topic in the golden age of grift, should i ask how we can profit?
despite sector support for trump and the gop, american energy seems determined not to lose money this time in support of nonsense strategies.
they are actually hearing 'drill , idiots, drill'.
seafarer hasn't done great, but they have excellent process, governance, and public transparency.
most telling, you dont get a cop-out when it comes to positive and negative updates on specific names.
used to be holder long ago in matthews g&i.
not following too closely, but am skeptical regarding how some of these overcompensated analysts have done after leaving. doubt there are many fundholders who won on either end.
cembalest is a very thoughtful data-driven macro analyst.
he states it is not just tariffs, and not just elevated indices.
cembalest probably self-redacted because there are too many 'something else' going-on to be useful, and only inflammatory.
aft…
that MW link has more voodoo than a trump astrological reading.
praise be to the fractal, prime #s, and golden consolidation ratios, for only the triangulated masonic eye spys what's ahead for the sacred index!
amazing. goldman and others usually wait until after 1 side of this chart gets updated.
give that hedgie a bonus !
https://apps.npr.org/dailygraphics/graphics/tariff-swings-20250306/?initialWidth=953&childId=responsive-embed-tariff-swings…
i am tempted by some specific equities, as i do not subscribe to index investing.
but there is a better case elsewhere than the s&p500 :
https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/invert-always-invert-the-tariff-edition
jc_co,
how late is too late?
[from Chase Taylor last week]
“Let me keep this as simple as I can. If this policy is not meaningfully changed this year – we will enter a Depression. If we meaningfully change it this summer, we will have a tough reces…
94? so what? how many fanboys have asked him to step down from running one of earth's largest companies?
no one asked for a fistfight, and not even waiting for sexual assault. just use a little juice to defend himself and do what's right so that…
given warren's penchant for character, his wealth, and his age, why is not attempting to legally and financially cripple crush any and all sources tied to this? is he a coward? does he really care about the country?
what's the point of , just g…
seems a lot of people have now miraculously timed the trump bump...that was just recently to be a continuous 4 yr golden age of economics, markets, and consumer prices.
may be of use to shorts. bad fundamentals, and seems we are at least descending from a periodic peak of rightwing sentiment.
elsewhere :
'...unprofitable and their net margins are getting worse -20% in FY2022, -32% in FY2023, and -69% in the the …
american unreliability in both trade and security forces new trade alliances (japan, SK, china) that may counter trump tariffs as a group :
"...ongoing ‘global war on trade’ (GWOT), an acronym bearing a remarkable similarity to the notorious ‘Globa…
this brings back a trump 1.0 anecdote where he could not conceive\admit to a difference between knowing how a cell phone works vs knowing how to use one.
for MAGA, false confidence can overcome any amount of objective ignorance.
the genius app…
if the administration, the government majority, and the scotus majority are all taking orders from one person, then using the name seems both apt and efficient .
although longer, ya probably gonna like the nicknames even less.
old_joe,
thx for worrying about toyota (customer since 1980s).
just last year, me another team-mate were trying convince others in our sports league that tesla was a toyota wanna-be.
we failed mainly because we didnt own a new one (of either) and w…
hank, am so happy to see w/can sometimes agree here.
there are more than enough fossil patriots taking their luxury suv and superduty truck 1/2 mile for snacks. no one will force me into being one.
and no matter how good and\or cheap a car may be, …
yardeni bumped his recession educated GUESS from 20% to 35%.
for some, that may be confirmation for reaching or staying at your lowest non-zero equity allocation, and he offers paid services for advice on shuffling specific portfolios whether timel…
not just this.
sustained elevated markets are not predictors of societal collapse, but several brutal instances where they did not preclude such.
not to be confused with the normal biz cycle 'wall-of-worry' cliche.
assume any mfo investor wants to consider shorting or holding.
by the smallest extension, they may want in-person feedback by mfo takedown attendees regarding turnout, newly announced plans, etc...
is this 'on-topic' enough? dont dump on plausible…
this is MAGA-like unsafe, stupid, wasteful, counterproductive.
musk collects insurance vs. unsold new teslas plummeting in value w/no buyers in sight.
may soon cease trade-ins >20% KBB.
stop!!
be careful.
both momentum traders and musk fanboys looking to buy dips, and market will over-react to any tariffs delays\cancellations. actual tax cuts would do the same.
one experienced short seller stated look for a point where hardcore fans a…
just read a compelling analysis stating this was to preserve both a 2nd source for fighters, and to preserve a big group of critical skills/workers in a sector needed in-nation.
i.e., had lockheed been a long-failing company due to its own actions…
yep, posted in 2024, been adding to since then, hoping it remains under the radar :
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/63101/tax-free-u-s-bond-market-and-gop-control-for-2-4-years#latest
could be a bad idea anyway w/inflation..…
obviously 'everyone' is wrong.
and even though they voted for trump, are certainly trump haters for contradicting. bondi will be looking into that, using our tax dollars.
not sure giroux is more enthusiastic for bank loans than type floating rate.
but i buy into his thesis that private credit boom has resulted in bank loans getting safer than their possible rating.
