Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
its different this time, but again, not in any way that helps forecasts.
historically over centuries, gold does its best during huge econ and pol uncertainty which clobbers speculation, normal biz , and gov process.
we may eventually get the latte…
AI for hard science may lead once we are far (years) past trough of standard hype cycle.
experts disillusioned elsewhere (e.g., toxic media,defense,finance) join Applied Minds and such companies.
as for current bubble , see nobel prize skeptic fro…
IVA chart indicates a single\familiar event of variable duration is meaningless.
as long as employment is high, there is a massive base flow into retirement american index stocks, and it will take a confluence of durable events to change sentiment.…
new slogan :
Vanguard proudly offers Agency cost at the lowest cost!
IVA 2025 review of ~50 managers :
22 : (more than half): $0 invested in their own funds.
7 : $1m invested in one of their funds.
[check out that last high conviction allocation…
you know there is too much winning when MAGA forgets to list that :
- trump was for ukraine all along !
- its so great that foreign companies are going to pay tariffs for his Rx drugs...down 1500% means he will be getting paid to take them ! more …
we have kristi,kash,tulsi setting the bar for 'unqualified'.
this MAGA-career chaser is peanuts ; no legal nor scientific quackery is too low when dr. dementia dangles a promotion.
plus, without cannon as judge, trump has a built-in excuse for losi…
local guy had to carry his toddler and gear for ~20 min. from swimming pool.
cellphone died, and was using to open\start his tesla. guess where the charger sat.
some conjecture that sports betting ventures are in trouble, because it turns out much user growth is from people just not that interested in sports...and see it as an incredibly stupid activity they have never enjoyed.
so the trend for nihilistic…
having followed carney as far back as his pre-chair brookfield advisor days, i cannot imagine more of a mismatch to trump on economic policy, and common sense in general.
sidenote : known for fossil, canada is the most competent manager of nuclea…
ironically, burner phones are more needed to protect citizens from criminal actions by the gov.
and certainly includes scotus\doj and their retrospective carve-out opinions on defining criminality, privacy, and free speech.
thx for link.
yes, i feel giroux's team has earned trust not only on dynamic allocation, but on selection within an asset class. (latter being artisan's point)
wish fees were a bit lower, but i need to pay for talent in largecap GARP, as i could …
if anything, trump may have realized russia will not win, and is signaling putin that bribes must continue to be massive in order to associate with (another) loser.
let's see how MAGA sanewashes latest flop...easiest fallbacks are 'am not really pa…
in signs of a partially rational america, trump eventually has lost these types of cases where it is clear that states\regions have chipped in resources signaling infrastructure is for for their own self-determined economic benefit.
(not unusual to …
nothing about today's political situation is conventional, other than the threat of a shutdown.
if it happens, will dems be blamed? typically the obstructive group suffers, but we are in a scenario where rightwing propaganda has , and will, blame …
mrs. kirk 'doubles down' on turningpoint, losing no time for monetization of rightwing martyrdom , even the founder's.
MAGA family values cut through paralyzing grief.
not putting any effort to time this due to chances its well priced in, but this seems the most succint take i have seen on the interwebs :
"...At current rates, a 0.5% or even 1% cut will not have any economic impact to speak of. Borrowing rates a…
unsure what to make of cox.
kash patel, pioneer in the craft rage industry was right there,and it sure didnt seem like that's who he was addressing.
this much ambiguity\cowardice means he is certainly not retiring from the gop.
MAGA economics are a puzzle :
- kirk built a hate-platform for wealth, lacking other talents
☑️ rational , but highly unoriginal
- brazil tariffs for fanboyz bolsonaro , ❎ not rational
- canada tariffs for fentanyl, ❎ not rational
- even if good…
its not just that gop are too lazy to research how many of their own are guilty of any latest gripe against dems.
its that they would all have to probably be given the boot on one or more of the same ; really couldnt qualify otherwise.
mortgages …
yes, my typo. am not really too confused regarding consumer affordability, regardless of inflation stats.
for the economy though, industrial production now deemed more useful than PMI, y\n ?
i thought PPI had been debunked as being not that useful as a leading indicator?
https://www.valueplays.net/2025/09/10/industral-production-continues-to-counter-pmi/
doesn't really help things when ~40% of the nation simply follows potus\rightwing media on which innocent deaths deserve empathy.
maybe alex jones can chime in.
it gets better.
managed by tuttle, the greatest patriot that never existed, fabricated to run a financial scam.
one could fill a blackhole w/the irony lost on MAGA.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuttle_(M*A*S*H)
one of my favorite non-Flagg episod…
at least poland has redirected trump bribes to actual defense. sorry qatar, you didnt even get a lousy t-shirt.
but seriously, poland, turkey, and the nordics are not going to wait for trump nor nato if sufficiently threatended. MAD deterrence d…
of course. fund managers have interest rate strategies, no one would claim they set interest rates.
but i am searching for bond fund managers who have considered a minor fed rate cut will have trivial impact , and trump's most likely (only?) mov…
my simplistic thinking is that the flood of current, and massive untapped, private credit has dragged down the actual quality of the entire group. relative ranking may be tough to chew.
not sure the reward still exists, but ~2023 giroux pointed o…
very clever, that trump.
forcing foreign companies to bring over talent unavailable locally means continuous fodder for his ICE gestapo newly funded with $billions. (or frozen sunk capex gone towards gop infrastructure PR, ala foxconn)
there is no…
there will soon come a time when gop craze about epstein will go the way of musk. ~90% of the 'most sensitive' information has not been released, and a trickle of the trivial can go on for years.
there is an overwhelming public record of trump hangi…
musk's main error was that he did not realize the trump crime family needs continuous blatant payments and flattery. one w/out the other risks eventually becoming the 'hardly knew him guy'.
so musk's $1t comp package from tesla will go a long way…
only 2 things are certain :
a. the late august visit by the s.korean president to the whitehouse did not yield sufficient planes\bribes\gold toilets for the trump crime family.
b. when the gop has to choose between trump and damage to local jobs\e…
given self tax and wealth scenario...tax-free bonds (narrowly) escaped being targets for trump grift and chaos.
consider active bond funds as managers selecting the economically best among thousands of american infrastructure projects, many of whic…
fred walks and bs talks with yet another information-free reply.
contrast with this post from fred who :
- explains his rationale
- gives his current positioning
- estimates his likely changes
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/…
for asset alloc. obsessives who dont mind using indices for equity, i suggest the new elm etf.
they have been running sma for a while with a unique but explicit process, and recently ahead of several flows such as lessening american equity.
plus yo…
